Ice4Blood's Blog

MVP prop odds... new math!

By Ice4Blood | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, June 16, 2010 11:29 PM   17 comments
can't post in the mains, and i'm not making a thread for idiots in the PB... but this needs discussion... tomorrow is the last day of the gambling season for the year (i consider the start of the gambling season to be week 1 of CFB)... so after tomorrow i am a ghost... but before it ends, i'm very curious to get anyone's feedback on this...
 
 
from Sportsbook.com... odds to win MVP (from this morning)
 
Kobe (-300)
Gasol (+2000)
Garnett (+2000)
Pierce (+300)
Rondo (+400)
Allen (+180)
Others (irrelevant for this discussion)
 
now, let's take a few assumptions, and see if we agree...
 
1) IF the Lakers win game 7, a Laker will FOR SURE (100%) win MVP  (i.e., Rondo won't be winning MVP unless Boston wins)
 
2) IF Boston wins game 7, there is a very small chance (less than zero) that Kobe could still win MVP in defeat (ala Jerry West in 1969)
 
3) IF the Lakers win game 7, Kobe has AT LEAST a 95% chance of winning MVP... probably more
 
 
if we agree on all of these, we are stuck with a dilemma... a sportsbook will definitely screw people on prop odds... however, they will not put up a prop with odds that are unbettable, and they have done that in this case...
 
consider... if you think a Celtic will win MVP (meaning you think Boston will win game 7), you can have the following options:  (a) Ray Allen (+180)... (b) Paul Pierce (+300)... (c) Rajon Rondo (+400)... (e) all of the above plus the rest of the Cs roster (+280) by taking Boston ML...
 
here's the point... they made Ray Allen unbettable... it's one thing to try to scare people off... it's another thing to make it unbettable... nobody with any brain cells will bet Ray (+180) when they can have Boston's whole team (+280)...
 
you can't use the argument that they are just skewing the odds in extreme fashion... because if they are, why can you get Kobe (-300), but the Lakers (-350)... ?
 
 
both of these statements in bold, in and of themselves, don't add up... when you put them both together... i guess that's what they mean by the "new math"???
 
any thoughts?
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808Tunda says:
06/16/10 11:51PM
ice first off all, nothing is 100% but you gotta think lakers got this game 7 so right off the bat your right about writing off all celtic players. now off to the lakers. there is only two people that has a chance to win mvp in this tourney 1) off course kobe 2) gasol. so my take on this is if your gonna bet an mvp, load up on kobe and sprinkle some duckets on pau just in case. i personally would just lay the point on the lakers cause i think its gonna be a blowout especially with no perkins in the lineup. good luck whoever you chose in this prop bet
808Tunda says:
06/16/10 11:53PM
another thing to add if your gonna make a prop bet on kobe -300 i would rather go lakers -340 moneyline which i think is a lot safer.
Ice4Blood says:
06/17/10 12:29AM
Tunda... one thing i need to make clear... i am not at all interested in betting on these MVP props... i don't care about them at all, other than what these odds are saying...

this is about the discrepancy between the MVP odds and Game 7 money-line... they are INCREDIBLY far apart...

Ice4Blood says:
06/17/10 12:43AM
here is a more detailed breakdown of these odds:

Bynum (+40000) = .25%

Fisher (+20000) = .5%

Odom (+50000) = .2%

Gasol (+2000) = 5%

Bryant (-300) = 75%

Artest (+50000) = .2%

All Lakers = 81.15%

Perkins (+100000) = .1%

Garnett (+2000) = 5%

Pierce (+300) = 25%

Rondo (+400) = 20%

Allen (+180) = 35%

Wallace (+100000) = .1%

All Celtics = 85.2%

very difficult to rationalize this given the fact that LA is (-340) or so to win the game... just something to think about...

jwheels86 says:
06/17/10 01:56AM
Where the hell can I get this Celtics team prop?
Ice4Blood says:
06/17/10 02:04AM
the more i look at this the more it staggers me... why have they made every single player on the Celtics unbettable on this prop? i mean literally unbettable... the only one you could even consider betting is Garnett... why make an MVP prop where only Lakers can be bet?

and the Ray Allen prop defies explanation... i seriously would love to hear anyone's thoughts on that... Ray Allen is (+180) to win MVP, but Boston is (+280) to win the game, and Ray can't win MVP unless Boston wins the game... under no circumstances can you bet on Ray Allen, even if you knew for a fact (through prescience) that Ray Allen was going to have the game of his life and go for 60 points... you STILL cannot bet Ray Allen (+180) to win MVP under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES...

that is almost unfathomable... and you want to know what i think? Ray Allen will be the MVP of these Finals... stay tuned...

and please... i don't want to hear any learning impaired people saying i have no integrity because i said (a) that you cannot bet on Ray Allen, and (b) Ray Allen will win MVP... if you can't understand how those two statements co-exist, this thread is not for you...

Ice4Blood says:
06/17/10 02:07AM
JW... that prop is called Boston ML (+280)
WendysRox says:
06/17/10 09:43AM
808Tunda says:

06/16/10 11:51PM

"ice first off all, nothing is 100% but you gotta think lakers got this game 7 so right off the bat your right about writing off all celtic players. now off to the lakers. there is only two people that has a chance to win mvp in this tourney 1) off course kobe 2) gasol. so my take on this is if your gonna bet an mvp, load up on kobe and sprinkle some duckets on pau just in case. i personally would just lay the point on the lakers cause i think its gonna be a blowout especially with no perkins in the lineup. good luck whoever you chose in this prop bet"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorry, but I had to stop reading and reply to this as soon as I saw it... I think this is probably the public perception - "write off all celtics, cause they don't have a chance to win anyway". This just makes my conspiracy theory mind love the C's all that much more tonight. No offense, of course.

Ice... as for the odds on MVP... I think you have a point about Allen - that just doesn't add up to me. It's almost as if they are telling you that the Celtics are going to win. As for the Kobe line, I suppose it's about right. If LA wins, then Kobe has a very high possibility of being MVP. However, there is that tiny -50 (or 2.78%) chance that he will not. Basically they are telling you that, if LA wins, Kobe has a 97.22% chance of winning MVP.

I used this website to convert money lines into probabilities...check it out if interested: http://www.usagambler.net/MoneyLineConverter.aspx

WendysRox says:
06/17/10 09:46AM
By the way, it's a little early for me after staying up until 3:00 drinking beer. So, if my math is off, I apologize. I'm not really a math guy anyway, I usually go to Vanzack with questions like this.
jmw59 says:
06/17/10 11:57AM
Sorry for your trouble in the mains bro. Your an asset to the betting community IMO.

Dunno much about MVP props but I go agree, if the Lakers win Kobe will get it no doubt. This is why they play the long season. Home Court. I will step lightly tonight but will prolly take the Lakers ML small.

Damn bro, CFB can't get here fast enough.

Ice4Blood says:
06/17/10 12:16PM
WendysRox says:

06/17/10 09:43AM

"I think you have a point about Allen - that just doesn't add up to me. It's almost as if they are telling you that the Celtics are going to win. "

i completely agree with this... take it one step further: you can bet any Laker on that board and you are getting reasonable odds... but you can NOT bet Ray Allen (at all), and you really are pretty stupid if you bet Pierce or Rondo... so they have made the 3 best Celtics all virtually unbettable... and you are right about Kobe... Kobe's odds look right on to me... 97% sounds exactly right... Gasol is listed as 5%... so that means if LA wins, 95% chance it's Kobe... and if Boston wins, 2% chance it's Kobe... 2.5% would represent the exact percentage of times that a team lost the title but had the MVP (1 in 40: Jerry West)...

as for Tunda's post... i totally agree with you... when people are this convinced that a team is 100% for sure going to win, in a marquee matchup of this extent... it sure has the smell of a sheepish play...

but i doubt Tunda is betting the game, since he hung up his NBA shoes a couple weeks ago...

JMW... i hear ya!

Crashdavis565 says:
06/17/10 01:41PM
Hey Ice-

I am not sure I get this. But, I think your point is, these are terrible odds and I would say, "yes, props are often times terrible odds, do not bet them".

I have had success with props but in a very limited capacity over the years because the juice is so heavy.

I do think the Boston any player bet is not any player but any player not listed above if you get my drift (bench guys etc.)

That explains the discrepancy in the odds. GL tonight, I cannot help myself and am going with the Celts again.

Crash

Gold_Rush says:
06/17/10 02:34PM
Well I am not a big prop fan, having lost my one and only prop bet this year on Brazil to score 2 or more goals

over those Stuffy North Koreans.. So, im not the best to add input but I will say what I think about your props

Kobe to win MVP is clearly the easiest prop bet on the board, however its the same odds as my Brazil bet so I kind of take a step back and digress. your point about if the Lakers win, and win they Shall, then Kobe is a shoe in

and a clear favorite to win the MVP.. I say, since the ML is -320 and Kobe is only 300 it makes sense to take the Kobe bet over the Laker ML,however, if the Lakers win, and we know how i feel, then Kobe is surely going to win the MVP. Someone like Gasol may have a monster game . Its subjective...And like you said its 90-95% that kobe gets it The Lakers winning the game is 100% so from that aspect I like the ML laker line better.

.

amd says:
06/17/10 06:21PM
Looks like the celts are going to win and my over 186 will hit. Thank you, Ray Allen.
Rokr says:
06/17/10 06:47PM
This is either Bryant -300 or Boston Ml +280, it depends which team do you think is gonna win.
Ice4Blood says:
06/18/10 09:54PM
people who say "LA played their worst game of the playoffs but still won"... no credibility: Boston ALSO played their worst game of the playoffs...

people who talk shit about anyone who had Boston to win the series... no credibility: the Perkins injury was certainly more than enough to make the difference in game 7... not even debatable, when you consider the rebounding edge, especially offensive, along with the fact that Boston was so thin that Scalabrine got his first playing time of the playoffs in GAME 7 OF THE NBA FINALS!!!

people who claim LA is a legit NBA champ... no credibility: we all know about the formula refs use when they are going to guarantee a win for one team over the other... 4th quarter FTs... see WC finals game 6 in 2002 (this game was 100% fixed and that cannot be denied)... Game 7 of these Finals followed the exact same formula... 27 FT attempts for LA in 2002... 22 FT attempts for LA in 2010... LA scored 20 of 30 points at the FT line... that ONLY happens in a fixed game...

anyone who considers Kobe to be even in the same realm as Michael Jordan......... no brains!

watch and learn: these videos will teach you more about the NBA than any game film ever will...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRPYjdgStns

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_i3Vnd0n44

Ice4Blood says:
06/19/10 12:32AM
i'm not sure why none of your posts were posted until 24 hours after the game guys... sorry didn't get back to you on it...

this thread was not about odds... a few people got my point, but it was moot anyway...

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