There was more than a little smug satisfaction in watching Syracuse lose to Butler Thursday night. After picking and losing Kansas to win the national title, the only hope to stay alive in my bracket pool was to have the Orange get crushed.
The Bulldogs’ thrilling 63-59 victory not only spoiled a good chunk of healthy brackets but also forced oddsmakers to scramble the futures odds for the 2009-10 NCAA national championship.
According to
Logans.com, Butler has moved from +5000 heading into Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup to +2500 as of their Elite Eight showdown with Kansas State.
“Syracuse losing was a bit of a surprise last night, but I do see Butler as a legit contender,” says Blake Edwards, an oddsmaker for
Logans.com. “Hell, any team that makes it to the Elite Eight is a contender in my opinion.
They'll open up around a 4.5-point underdog to Kansas State tomorrow. Kansas State played double overtime last night and with their intense style of play, will conditioning become a factor?”
Edwards says the rash of upsets this March does have more money coming in on the underdogs than past tournaments. However, that action pales in comparison to the public money pounding teams like Kentucky.
Syracuse was the most heavily wagered on team Thursday, followed by Washington. Many bettors were impressed with the Huskies’ performances in the first two rounds and were fading a shorthanded West Virginia squad, which ended up defeating Washington 69-56 as a 4.5-point favorite.
As for futures money,
Logans.com is reporting a ton of money coming in on Butler, Baylor and Kansas State. If one of those teams claim the national title, the book would take a sizable hit from the futures board.
Edwards, himself, sees great value in Tennessee at +3500 to win the Big Dance. The Volunteers take on Ohio State in the Sweet 16 and are 4.5-point underdogs for Friday’s matchup.
“If they get by them they'll play the winner of the Northern Iowa-Michigan State game… they'd be favored in their next game,” says Edwards. “They'd face either Butler or Kansas State in the Final Four and again that would be a very winnable possible matchup for Tennessee. But getting by Ohio State tonight is going to be tough and their biggest road block to the finals.”
Personally, I think it’s worth throwing a couple bucks on each of the so-called Cinderellas just for the promise of a big payday. If this tournament has taught us anything, it’s that we know nothing about capping college basketball come mid-March. Face it, it’s science.
And if you are tops in your bracket pool and staring down a big ole lump sum of your co-workers’ hard-earned money, make sure to hedge when it comes down to the Final Four. Throw some bucks on the teams you don’t have winning just to cover your ass.
Who is the best NCAA futures play left in your opinion?