J_Logan's Blog

Get your NFL Overs while you can

By J_Logan | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, September 24, 2011 02:07 PM   1 comment
High scores and over bets have been the talk of the town when it comes to NFL betting.

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Over has gone an amazing 23-8 (74 percent).

Many thought the shortened offseason, due to the lockout, would take its toll on conditioning and timing and keep scores low until teams got back into shape. But it appears that the offensive players are less impacted by lack of practice than those on the defensive side of the ball.

A lot of coaches have been quick to pick up on this and have switched their offense into high gear to exploit the rusty defenders. Teams like the Patriots have gone with no-huddle attacks in order to keep defensive players on the field, sucking wind while Tom Brady picks apart the secondary like it’s stuck in cement.

Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, believes Week 3 might be the last time bettors can really ride this total trend. He expects defenses to round into game shape at some point during this Sunday’s action.

“There’s been a lot of rust falling off those guys,” Rood says about NFL defenses. “The smart coaches, like Belichick, noticed this. But I think you’ll see less and less no-huddle in the next two or three weeks.”

Rood also blames the rash of injuries plaguing the NFL through the first two weeks on the lockout-shortened offseason. Plenty of marquee talents, on both sides of the ball, have suffered season-ending injuries.

“That’s what I think when I see all those hamstring pulls,” he says. “You take away the training and the two-a-days, and guys just aren’t ready - aren’t in game shape.”

There are seven games on the Week 3 board with totals of 44.5 points or higher, including a 53.5-point number for the Patriots-Bills matchup.

Check out Larry Hartstein's NFL Spread Sheet for more info on the books' adjustments to this totals trend and other Week 3 NFL betting notes.
1 comment
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CIA says:
11/13/11 11:55AM
OVER of the day DENVER 41-41.5, get down big!
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