James35's Blog

Chargers v. Bucs (-3) - Extensive Write-up

By James35 | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, November 06, 2012 11:15 AM   29 comments
The Chargers come to Tampa on Sunday, and books have the opening line with the Bucs as a -3 favorite.  If home field is 3 pts, then that tells us the books basically sees this as a PK if it were on a neutral field.  That said, books are also making you pay a little more for this action, with a wager on the Bucs at -3 (-125).
As I cap this game, these are a few things that jump out at me:

LOOKING AT STATS:

Chargers Offense:  The Chargers offense averages 23 pts a game, 323 yards a game, 217 passing yards a game, and 105 rushing yards a game.

Chargers Defense:  Very strong - Giving up on average 19.6 pts (8th) a game, 321.8 yards a game (9th), 237.8 passing (18th), and only 84 rushing yards (4th).  Shaun Phillips is sure to create problems for Freeman on Sunday.

Bucs Offensive Stats: (Yes, the Bucs):  28.2 pts a game (5th), 376.4 yds a game (9th), 245 pass yds a game (13th), 131 rushing yds a game (9th)

COMMON OPPONENTS:

Oakland:  Chargers scored 22 and gave up 14 against the Raiders back on opening day.  The Bucs scored 42 and gave up 32 against the Raiders last week.

Chiefs:  The Chargers scored 37 and gave up 20 against the Chiefs in week 4 (in KC).  Last week, in their second game against the Chiefs (@ home), they scored 31 and gave up 13 The Bucs scored 38 and gave up 10 against the Chiefs.

Chargers Strong Defensive Rankings vs Bucs Strong Offense and Weaker Defense Ranking - Strength of Schedule:

Comparing stats is important, but a capper must look at strength of schedule to see how credible these rankings are:

Chargers opponents to date:  Raiders (3-5), Titans (3-6), Falcons (8-0) , Chiefs x2 (again x2 = 2-14) , Saints (3-5), Broncos (5-3), and Browns (2-7).  The combined records of all Chargers opponents is therefore 26-40.

Bucs opponents to date:  Panthers (2-6), Giants (6-3), Cowboys (3-5) , Redskins (3-6), Chiefs (1-7), Saints (3-5), Vikings (5-4), and Raiders (3-5).  The combined records of all Buccaneer opponents is therefore 26-41.

Thus, opponents records are essentially identical, but there is still some good info to take from this.  I'm not buying that they've played an equal strength of schedule.  First, the Chargers opponents stats are a little skewed by the Falcons 8-0 record.  How did the Chargers do against their strongest opponents (Falcons and Broncos)?  Against the Falcons, they were crushed in SD 27-3.  Against the Broncos they lost 35-24.

The Bucs, on the other hand (regardless of opponents records), have played the Giants and Cowboys on the road, and have also played the Redskins and Vikings.  The "eyeball test" tells me the Bucs clearly have had a tougher schedule.  

Which team is hotter:

The Chargers are 1-3 over their last 4 games, the Bucs are 3-1 over last 4.

My Pick:

It's only a matter of time before someone talks about a Bucs letdown game. I don't see it, because after a 1-3 start, the Bucs don't have the luxury of a letdown!  The have some defensive issues for sure, and the Chargers tough run defense is going to be a bigger test for Doug Martin & Company.  

The biggest risk of the Bucs losing is if Phillip Rivers & Company finally have a big coming out party and start lighting it up early and often.  Against the Chargers defense, it would be asking a lot for the Bucs to win a shoot out game against the Chargers.

Taking the Bucs here. The Bucs are gelling and hitting their stride under Schiano, and  Doug Martin is now a solid Rookie of the Year contender after a historic performance against the Raiders last week.  Plus, as the Chargers work on a game plan to stop Doug Martin, look for it to open up the long ball with Josh Freeman taking multiple shots down field to his big targets: Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.

This is just my opinion and is only a partial list of considerations.  It is in no way a recommendation.....I am NOT a pro capper.  That said:  GIVE ME THE BUCS -3 (-125)

BOL to all  
29 comments
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xanthax says:
11/06/12 12:18PM
nice job
choiOi says:
11/06/12 12:23PM
I wouldn't bet against Diego in nov/dec but gl
learningthegame says:
11/06/12 12:48PM

i've heard talks of rivers in november.  but i've also heard talks about another o-line player for tampa gone from the lineup

 

their corner back position is somewhat depleted.  i heard another corner is expected to be suspended for aderal

 

these weaknesses have to express themself on the field sometime

 

if san diego comes out strong the bucs are gonna need more than two solid recievers ronde barber and a rookie running back

tankstevens says:
11/06/12 12:57PM
That is extensive
 the Chargers just flat out stink anyway
shivaseven says:
11/06/12 12:58PM
Bucs lost all pro caliber guard Nicks and still gashed the Raiders between the tackles.

I guess at -3 -125 you have to win 55% of your bets to break even.
shivaseven says:
11/06/12 01:00PM
CB Eric Wright suspension this week ...?
James35 says:
11/06/12 02:04PM

Good point and I took that into consideration about Nicks, but as you said that proved little trouble against the Raiders.  For the Bucs, both of the their best offensive linemen are out for season (Davin Joseph went out earlier).  They seem to be handling it well.

As for the -125, not all my bets include that extra juice.  That is the spread and juice offered, as opposed to the standard -110.  Rather than just making it Bucs -3.5 -110, the books are blocking teaser betters from getting the Chargers +10.5 on a 7 pt teaser.  

All comments and input appreciated and welcome.  I'm already locked in, but may add more.  
CallMeBruce says:
11/06/12 02:22PM
GL
bmiller1632 says:
11/06/12 02:41PM
Lets not forget Vincent Jackson has had this game marked on his calendar for a long time after all the crap he had to go through with A.J. Smith and the Chargers ... i think VJ has a huge game and the Bucs steamroll the bolts ... BOL
wwheee says:
11/06/12 08:22PM

Ding Ding Ding...winner  +1

V.J. is going to work that much harder on cuts and post patterns!

...add 2 pts for cross-country flight BUCs -5!

me likes!

WWHEEE

BJaRz says:
11/06/12 08:47PM

And you don't account for SD having 10 days off in any way? You only "add 2 points for cross country flight"?
aaustinova67 says:
11/06/12 08:58PM

Left out the most important factor:

The Weather

Chargers absolutely BLOW in rain, cold, snow etc.

But Tampa Bay should be mild, dry, warm climate, similar to the weather in San Diego.

I see the Bucs coming home from roadtrip and playing no defense, big offense, and losing in final 5 minutes or something crazy.

mark it baby

Chargers monelyine

YouWish says:
11/06/12 11:03PM
nobody has mentioned something rather important:  TB 32nd pass D.

it cost them the game vs NO and @ NYG.  it will cost them again soon.

is Rivers good enough to expose them?  too close to gamble on imo..

GL..
KyleBowler says:
11/07/12 12:03AM
Opening line was Bucs -1 and have been bet up to Bucs -3.
longstah says:
11/07/12 12:17AM
hey James I really like chargers but seen i see your posted I kind a back up. But it's your bigges bet or just normal 1 unit?

erenmo99 says:
11/07/12 01:16AM
Good post, well done.

I cannot trust the Chargers anywhere.  I do not trust Philip any where and any time.  The Chargers are a fake team.  They will always be fake.

West coast team coming to the east coast for a 1pm kickoff.  Schiano has TB playing inspired ball.  They have won 2 road games in a row, be it against Minny an Oakland.  They are in the thick of a playoff chase.  I personally do no think they make the playoffs.  As San Diego is in a playoff chase.  I don;t care what SD record is in November and December.  San Diego is a proven loser, they will never win anything with PHILIP AND NORVELLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!




pcz says:
11/07/12 01:32AM
what would be interesting is if you could breakdown Rivers' stats home vs. away and the SOS. If he is drastically different, That should further solidify your writeup.

Great write up!
TomE says:
11/07/12 02:13AM
looking at the Chargers results this year and last, it is pretty clear this team struggles more than not when in the situation of traveling East to play a game. But that is not quite enough to sway me.

Sure, I'm aware the Bucs stock is rising, and the Chargers' is currently uncertain.... what I'm wondering about is how often do you see TB as a  favorite? That alone scares me. They are often a good dog as proven this year, but I'm not all that certain they are good enough to rely on to cover as a favorite.
SD has a very good run defense and that might be key as if you remove Martin from the equation of what you just saw the last 2 weeks, the outcomes might have been quite different. Chargers look like they found new life last Thurs and it also gives them 3 extra days to prepare for this one here and it's a must win game for them.
Word was, if SD lost to KC, Turner was unemployed next day. His seat is just as hot as it was. This SD team will not just lay down, they will fight on desperately needing to win. They also have a history of coming on strong this time of year.  TB has 2 tough divisional foes upcoming the following 2 weeks, first @ Car, then hosting Atl, a game they must already have circled IMO.

I'm not saying I think SD is the pick, but I am saying there's an awful lot to think about here. It just doesn't seem as clear to me as it does to you.

BOL

feelgood says:
11/07/12 02:57AM
Bucks will take this.They fight till the end
horseplayer64 says:
11/07/12 05:53AM
One match up no one has mentioned is Norv Turner vs Shiano, Shiano has this team buying into him and playing hard for him they are home and Turner is 1-5 ATS in 1 pm games on the east coast ( I read that but did not verify it sounds legit though) I think those two factors with all the info provided by James35 and you gotta love the bucs at home only laying 3!

James35 says:
11/07/12 08:00AM

Thanks, at my book it was -3 (-125).  Money must have poured in quickly to move it that fast.
James35 says:
11/07/12 08:20AM

I kind of hate to say because I honestly don't want to influence people.  My posts are more just "food for thought" and why I am laying action.  I also post detailed threads like this because I like getting feedback myself.   I think you ask a good question though, because a person's record is a poor indicator of success.  How they do on their "High Confidence" games is far more important.  

My highest confidence game of the year was the OR Ducks -7 vs USC, and I won 15 units on that last week.  My bet on normal confidence is just 1 unit, so that tells you how much I loved OR. I'm putting 4 units on the Bucs this week.  I've seen some people use "Tiers 1-3."  I guess I'd call this a "Tier II" game for me between 1-3. Certainly not a "back up the truck" game, but I like the Bucs. 

 I wouldn't go crazy because, as someone else mentioned, my biggest concern is the Bucs defensive secondary.  Friggen' Talib, an extremely talented D back, was traded to the Patriots due to multiple suspensions (the latest getting tweaked on Adderall).  As good as he was, good riddance!  Glad to see Schiano thinning out the thugs (but I digress).

BOL 
James35 says:
11/07/12 08:36AM

I meant to go into more detail on that but simply ran out of time.  Dead on point.   

Look for the Bucs game plan this week to include A LOT of blitz packages.  As good as Rivers can be, and when he's "on" he can be one of the best, the fact that he is NOT mobile will make it easier to put together a game plan.  I am going to look for Ronde Barber to safety blitz several times (and get at least one sack), and for Gerald McCoy to make life miserable for Rivers.  McCoy needs to come up big Sunday.

kRaZeEpLaYa says:
11/07/12 10:07PM

Nice breakdown....I got Bucs -3 @ -115 now on 365.  Martin will have a tougher time vs the Chargers - but this will still open up the passing game for Freeman and company which should be the difference in this one.

GL!

SCROG says:
11/09/12 09:20AM
Line is perfect for a HUGE BUCS play 10* here
gmblr52 says:
11/09/12 12:01PM
Why break your brain trying to pick the ATS winner of this game? Just go with the obvious play here, over WAY OVER!
demsungsuong says:
11/09/12 06:35PM
Anybody looked at the teams bucs beat ATS? Break those teams down, they have 2 things either they have poor rushing defense or poor passing offense. SD is the opposite of these 2 criteria. Bucs have trouble with teams that have good passing offense. SD mL large bet.
imaxfli says:
11/10/12 02:36PM
Like the NFC to beat the AFC for sure...Bucs will probably win by 3 though!
sports_Network says:
11/11/12 08:08AM
vg write up, and handicap...the Buc's can be had at -2.5 (-110) at many LV Books; it comes down to coaching...Schiano has TB's game plan in order, Norv Turner has become an outdated dinosour with NFL innovation to game plan. It's clear, RB Doug Martin is NO fluke. look for the Bucs to open up their passing game. and shut down QB Phillip Rivers. the Chargers are not capable of stopping Martin, look for another 100+yd game. SD LOSES IT IN THE SECOND HALF.... final score:

TAMPA BAY 24|SAN DIEGO 20

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