Jay4Prez's Blog

Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 08:14 PM

2012 teams with low stability were 18-66 SU...

I rate all teams on stability, giving them points based on same coach or new coach, same for OC, DC, and QB.  Also I factor in returning starters to the stability.  I will share with you smaller conf teams that have extremely low stability starting this season.  There are some larger conf teams with extremely low stability, but I have found that their records do not show a loss in stability, due to being stacked with talent.

Last season, 7 teams were listed as low stability teams and finished the season

18-66 SU 21% and 34-48 ATS 41%

This seasons smaller conf teams with extremely low stability --

Ark St, Flo Int, Idaho, Kent St, La Tech, USF, S Miss, Temple, UTEP, W Kent, W Mich.



Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 10:29 AM

Wk 7 UD's with higher YPPA of 20< (8< than opp.) this season = 8/8

UD teams having yards per point allowed of 20 or higher this season and are 8< than opp. are currently 8/8 and 30/38 over the last three seasons. 

 Also, "top YPP/YPPA UD teams" (YPP of 16> and YPPA of 18.5<) are 11/13 this season and 59/95 over the last three seasons.

Last week the only UD team having 20< YPPA and 8< than opp. was St L and they pushed the 3 point line.  Last week UD's "top teams" were St L and NY G, 1-0-1 with NY winning SU.

Thought I would start sharing these weeky, as long as they cont to hit at a profitable %. 

This weeks UD's having 20< YPPA and 8< than opp. - Baltimore and St Louis.

This weeks "top UD teams" - Seatle , Baltimore, Tampa Bay.

Last week teams DUE UP - Dallas Buffalo  GB

Teams this week that I show being DUE UP -  Jacksonville

Last week teams DUE DOWN - SF MN

This week teams DUE DOWN - NY G and Chicago


Posted Sunday, August 08, 2010 08:28 AM

4 teams have the power to win it all, but who has stability?

From top to bottom these four teams are solid in power, but which of these National contenders have the stronger stability.

Top Power, 1-Alabama, 2-Florida, 3-Texas, 4-OU

Top Stability, 1-OU, 2-Alabama, 3-Texas, 4-Florida

Comparing the two indicates the two strongest teams pre season are Bama and OU, no suprise to Vegas as Bama is +400 and OU +600.  Power wise OU is about a field goal short, but would have a slight edge in stability if these two were healthy come Jan. 

gl to all this season, lets get that

Posted Thursday, August 05, 2010 09:25 PM

Wk 1 value teams

Last regular season record ATS 40-28                                   Here are two choices for our best value wk 1

Pitt +3 at Utah  (Pitt has good shot at the Big E this year and a BCS bowl, they should be small fav here, Pitt plays very well on the road, especially on grass fields 10-2 ATS L3 yrs, Pitt follows Utah with 3 consecutive home games against cup cakes before they head to Notre Dame in wk 5, they will be 4-0 going into South Bend)

UCONN +3 at Michigan (UCONN much better power in this spot, equal stability between the two, UCONN 11-3 ATS L2 yrs away, UCONN also on a 10-2 ATS winning streak in 1st two wks of the season, I like UCONN as a dark horse in the East, Mich 40% ATS as fav late, its make or break for Rodriguez this season, and it starts with a UCONN team that went 4-0 L4 games of 09, Mich goes on the road to Notre Dame wk 2 )

Few other leans im still looking into, will post final picks on a later date. gl to all this season.

Northwestern at Vanderbilt +3                                            Purd... [More]

Posted Friday, November 20, 2009 10:44 PM

9-3 BOOM!!!

Clemson 11.3, Boise St 10.7, and Texas 10.5 are the top 3 teams in YPPT this week.  On paper Texas should win it all???  I know, I know, thats on paper

TOP YPPT PICKS- Boise St -28, Clemson -6, Texas -23

DOG PICKS- Ohio had better YPPT last night also , Bowling Green -3, USF +3 (+.5), Michigan +9, Florida St +6, Colorado +6 (went with Col last wk and will ride them again here, getting great value again as they had lower YPPT than A&M last wk and lower than Iowa St this wk), Cal +2.5 (+.5), MU +2.5 (+.5),

DEFENSIVE PICK- Nebraska -3.5 


Posted Friday, November 20, 2009 10:38 PM

6-2 POW!!!

TN -7 (worse ATS rating and fav @ home??? hitting 60%)

NO -13.5 (fav in every area, and large diff in PYA 8-5 hitting 78%)

TBAY +11 (Miami fresh due down from beg power number hitting 69%)

KC +2 (KC better ATS rating and lower YPPT hits 62%)

PHILY +1 (UD stronger power, away, hits 60%)

GBAY +3 (UD with lower YPPT at home, Dallas fresh due down from beg power number hits 67%)

NE +3 (NE better TOP of avg of 5 min per and INDY off a PHONY win hits 75%)

BALT -10 (Balt fav in every area and large diff in PYA of 6-3 hits 78%)


Posted Tuesday, October 27, 2009 09:39 PM

Wk8 7-2-1

Rutgers -10, Clemson +5.5, Ball State -2.5, N Ill -11, BC +7.5,   OU -7, Navy -2, Temple +2, Iowa +2, Arz St +7

gl all

Posted Tuesday, October 27, 2009 09:37 PM

Wk7 4-1

MN +6 (dont like the fact that this means nothing to MN with two div games coming up, but with MN on the rise, I think they would like to show everyone they are one of the best in the NFL, and how better to show than beating the SB champg)  Big road test for Brett and the boys.

SD -5  (SD fresh due up, KC off PHONY win...)

GB -7 (playing under the radar, no hype = coverage)

BUFF +7 (No way Carolina is giving 7 points, this isnt Tampa Bay)

NO -6 (with all the crazy talk about Miami and the wild cat, this just feels like an easy win???)




User: Jay4Prez
Joined: February 2008
Location: Missouri
Team: Missouri Tigers

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