NCAA Week 7: 23-15 Ytd (61%)

After a dismal first week of the season in pro ball that set me back a good bit I am grinding it out in CFB getting closer to back to even. Hopefully the trend continues and I keep hitting 60%+ to turn out a solid season. This has the early looks of a great card this weekend. I locked in 3 bets already earlier today just getting around to posting them so forgive if the lines have moved...Plays coming right up...

NCAAF Week 6: 20-13 ytd (61%)

Boise State -21
Fresno State is just not very good this year...and I love when Boise gets on prime time. They have struggled the last few weeks with putting teams away, but they are a solid team this year and need a big bounce back game, this could be it. Fresno will struggle to move the ball on this group and have battled injuries all season. The crowd will be pretty good this week, but I don't think it'll matter much. Boise gets on track here and will coast. I'm thinking a 42-10 type of game.

• Boise is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games
• Boise is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 friday night games
• Fresno is 12-37 ATS in their last 49 following a S.U. loss
• Fresno is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 friday night games
• Fresno is 16-34 ATS in their last 50 homes games

More coming in the week..

NCAAF Saturday: 16-11 ytd (59%)

Indiana +14.5, Indiana +9 1H
I know Indiana dropped one to a bad UNT team, but I am hoping they kind of come in and catch PSU sleeping. I think there is a good chance of that happening. Penn State isn't good enough to beat anyone without motivation IMO. I think this game could really lag through the first 3 quarters which is why I put up the 1H bet. Hoping Indy comes out with a little pep in their step and puts a score or 2 up early then coast through the rest of the game. Penn State is not very good ATS.


Kansas +7 (Hook)
This is more a play on the home team catching too many points. I hate backing Kansas but 7 is too many here for a home conference game when teams are similar. Texas Tech has not impressed me yet this year  I would have thought this line would be closer to 3/4. I'll take the points at home.

Week 5: 14-10 Ytd (58%)

1-1 Half time bets (I think...could be missing a game in here somewhere).

Went 3-3 last week but hit a ML bet on LSU over WVU, I don't post ML bets here for tracking purposes, doesn't make much sense. All in all, the games I lost last week in regards to UCF and ECU are the kinds of games that make you want to quit betting. ECU with 7 turnovers 2 inside the 5 and UCF with 4 and just giving that game away. Back to the grind this week...BOL to everyone got 2 picks already locked in...posting here shortly.

UCF 2H play

+.5

They will run the clock out, Heaps isn't good enough to get this one closer I liked UCF +3 and am pressing this 2H bet I think
UCF wins this one by 2 scores.

NCAAF Week 4: 11-7 ytd (61%)

Florida -20

This one opened at -17 last night in some places my book doesn't release lines until today. I have it locked in at 20. It does make me a little nervous Florida traveling for the first time this year under new regime and may be looking ahead to Bama next week, but their defense is really nasty. I think even if the offense struggles they should put up 28 on offense. Kentucky is just not a really good football whatsoever they have looked bad each week, but in the SEC on the road anything can happen. I'll take my chances with the Gators here.

More coming later in the week...

2H Bama -20.5 (10-7 ytd)

Taking Tide -20.5 2H in this one...they will come out throwing the ball early...doubt UNT puts up a TD on this defense or the backups.

NCAAF Friday Night: Boise (8-7 ytd)

Taking the Broncos tonight.

Toledo going into tOSU last week was a good setup for them with it being in state deal and catching the bucks at a good time (before Miami)..this week not so much. Boise knows that for them to get to where they want to be, they have to beat teams in these weekday games handedly when everyone is watching...and I think they will. It may be close for a quarter, but Boise is hands down the better team and should win this win rather easily. Boise 45 Toledo 10

Boise State -20

• Boise 20-7 ATS in their last 27
• Boise 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite
• Toledo 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a 10.5+ dog

Back to basics: Wk 3 (8-7 ytd)

Went 2-1 last week on covers (though with my local I bet about 16 games and lost then made 3 ridiculous teaser bets in pro ball to be down huge). It was one of the infamous meltdowns I am notorious for having whether its poker, craps or betting.

This week, and the rest of the year...its all about getting back to even.


I have gotten into a habit of betting every game on the board thinking I can pick 55%...I consistently hit my core games and lose the game I pick up throughout Saturdays. So from here on out, no betting the game just because. Money management key from here. I'm confident I can return to 60%+ for the year as I did 2 years ago, and as I did through the first half of last year before I came up with the grant idea to bet every game on the board. BOL to everyone this week.

NCAAF Friday: -- Zona State (6-6 Ytd)

A first year starting QB with no experience going into a hostile environment for the first time against a better team with more experience....not a good recipe for Mizzou.

Really like the Devils this year, especially this game.

Enough to make it


LARGE -- Arizona State -10

NFL 2H play --- Saints pk -115

NO offense can score in a hurry, I liked them overall, and I definitely like them at the break.

NFL Thursday: 36-18 2010 (67% documented last yr)

After a hiatus midway through last season I am back...

New Orleans +5

I actually got the game @ 5.5 and bought up 1.5 points to make it NO +7 but nobody here has that line any more and I don't want to use my buy ups for record keeping. The line is currently +5 and for tracking purposes here thats what I am on.

Saints have a good unit, as does GBP. I think Saints running game with Ingram and company will be a solid compliment to Brees. I am curious to see how much the offseason moves on D will help this team this year. Saints had a great offseason after early exit last season from playoffs and I think they are hungry.

Should be a good one tonight!

NCAA Wk 2 - 60% 2009, 52% 2010

Off to a 5-5 start looking to recover this week. Already looked in these 3 and will add to this thread as goes...BOL to everyone this week.

Thursday
Arizona +14 (Hook)

Saturday
Arkansas -35 (Hook, LARGE)
Florida -23

NCAAF Thursday Night - Taking Zona and points

Play On: Arizona +14 (hook)

I watched the Okie State game versus ULL and they are talented but their defense is terrible. Its hard for me to lay 14 points with a defense that just gave up 30+ to a SBC school, especially now facing a potent QB that has 8 returning starters on offense. For this reason I am on The Cats.

 

New YEAR...my first saturday picks

BOL to everyone this year I'll update this as they come in. Knew I should have pulled the trigger on Baylor yesterday but that thats how it goes! Looking forward to another big year with you guys.

• Alabama 1H -21.5
• Alabama -38
• Missouri -20 (Hook)

2H play (LARGE)

JAX -0.5 .... Love it here. They may not cover the original 3, but Edwards will move the ball on them, and TEN will be in shutdown mode with Collins at the helm.

Locking in LSU +7.. LARGE

Will do a write up later in the week just wanted to post this here. Taking the half point now just in case it goes back down to 6. Biggest reason for taking LSU is AU's defensive secondary is a joke, if Jarrett Lee gets bulk of snaps (which he should) LSU will be able to put points up through the air. This is the best and fastest defense Aubie has played, and will play.

5 of last 6 have been decided by less than a TD and I see this one as no different. Contemplating making a play on LSU ML. It's all about defense, and LSU has one.




See you guys later in the week.

NFL Monday: *** 36-16 (69%) Record Ytd) ***

2010 Record (NFL): 36-16, 69%

2010 Betting Breakdown
---- Spread: 21-7, 75%
---- Totals: 5-2, 67%
---- Halfs: 8-4, 75%
---- Quarters: 2-2, 50%
---- Moneyline: 0-1, 0%


2010 LARGE History (2-1)
Week 1 (W): Kansas City Chiefs +4 (KC 21 - SD 14)
Week 4 (W): New York Giants -3 (NYG 17 - CHI 3)
Week 5 (L): Minnesota Vikings +4.5 (MIN 20 - NYJ 29) *** Moose
______________________________________________________________________



Jacksonville +3
Like the Jags tonight, I think they have a good bit of momentum right now. They had that rough 2 game stretch against SD and PHI but that had a lot to do with QB play. I think Garrard is either hit and miss, but when a QB has confidence its hard to go away from him. Garrard was close to getting run out of dodge 2 weeks ago, and now the role has reversed. I think we'll see a close game tonight, a dog fight in a division battle. I'll go with the home team (who finally won't be blacked out) and the points. I leaned UNDER, but made it a no play.
Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
JAX is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog of 3.0 or less.TEN is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against teams with winning record.TEN is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a S.U. Win.

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NFL Sunday Night: *** 35-16 (69%) Record Ytd***

2010 Record (NFL): 35-16, 69%

2010 Betting Breakdown
---- Spread: 20-7, 74%
---- Totals: 5-2, 67%
---- Halfs: 8-4, 75%
---- Quarters: 2-2, 50%
---- Moneyline: 0-1, 0%


2010 LARGE History (2-1)
Week 1 (W): Kansas City Chiefs +4 (KC 21 - SD 14)
Week 4 (W): New York Giants -3 (NYG 17 - CHI 3)
Week 5 (L): Minnesota Vikings +4.5 (MIN 20 - NYJ 29) *** Moose
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Washington +4 (Hook)
I hate going against Manning in primetime but tonight I feel its the play. Colts have struggled against the run at times this year and Shanny and the Skins will look to give a heavy dose of Torian to slow down and keep Manning off the field. Manning will get his, but they are so battered and beaten up I cannot help but seeing them coming up short tonight. Contemplated making this a LARGE, as well as a moneyline play but did not. Feel Washington is in a good spot here, they are battle tested and have played some close games. I like them here.
Skins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS win. ... [More]

NFL Sunday: *** 33-14 (70%) Record Ytd ***

2010 Record (NFL): 33-14, 70%

2010 Betting Breakdown
---- Spread: 18-6, 75%
---- Totals: 5-2, 67%
---- Halfs: 8-3, 80%
---- Quarters: 2-2, 50%
---- Moneyline: 0-1, 0%


2010 LARGE History (2-1)
Week 1 (W): Kansas City Chiefs +4 (KC 21 - SD 14)
Week 4 (W): New York Giants -3 (NYG 17 - CHI 3)
Week 5 (L): Minnesota Vikings +4.5 (MIN 20 - NYJ 29) *** Moose
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Dropped the first LARGE of the season on Monday night due to Farve's pick 6 with a minute to go. Cannot win them all. Looking over the card today, nothing that I really, really love. Here goes it though. BOL to everyone today. Don't have time for write ups at work and have to get going. Thanks to all those who stop in let me know what you tihnk.


Pittsburgh -7 1H
Atlanta +2
Seattle +6
Miami +3
Washington +4 (Hook)


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NHL Thursday

Current Season: 8-10, -0.46U

Betting Breakdown
ML Favs: 4-3, -0.26U
------ 3.35U Risked
ML Dogs: 3-2, +0.39U
------ 1.00U Risked
Totals: 1-1, - 0.03U
------ 0.49U Risked
Spread: 0-4, -0.57U
------ 0.57U Risked

Dallas ML +100
(0.30U to win 0.30U)

CFB Thursday

Current/Past Season History
2009 NCAAF: 79-53 (60%)
2010 NCAAF: 52-48 (52%) --- 6-3 LARGE
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2010 NFL: 34-14 (71%)
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2-0 last night...hopefully the start to a run.



Kansas +3
I am just not sold on K-State. They have put putted along the last year and half since they lost to UL-Lafayette last year. They just are not a very good team, but they are well coached I supposed. Their QB play is ridiculous and I think teams are finally realizing you need to load the box and make that kid beat you...to which he cannot. I've been impressed with Kansas this year, but not their coaching staff. I think its do or die for these guys, I backed them earlier in the year and got burned. I think that they are a different team at Home and look for them to win this one out right.


West Virginia -10
I see Daniels struggling tonight against a really fast, quality defense. I think the LSU game was an eye opener for WVU, they realized they just were not that good. The only thing that worries me here is I absolutely hate to be on the same side as Bill Stewart. Dude is just terrible. I think WVU keeps the ball rolling tonight against USF (who hasn't really beaten anyone noteworthy this year). Not the same team they have been. It'll be close, but I think Devine breaks a couple late and WVU pulls away to win by 17.



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CFB Wednesday

Current/Past Season History
2009 NCAAF: 79-53 (60%)
2010 NCAAF: 50-48 (51%) --- 6-3 LARGE
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2010 NFL: 34-14 (71%)
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Well I said I was taking a week off, but the more I thought about it, the more I said it was a bad idea. I've never been on a run like this in college football and its bound to end sooner or later. I figure if I keep plucking away I'll come out ahead. Goal this week will to be small again, pick our spots. We will stay away from LARGE bets until our run turns. We are close...BOL to everyone tonight.

UCF -6 (Hook)
UCF 1H OVER 13

Like UCF here tonight. A little nervous to take them after they played so well the other night on national TV...but there is no look ahead game and their new QB rotating offense seems to be clicking. I think it continues tonight against a very average Marshall squad. Marshall may keep it close early, but UCF is the play tonight. They are superior athletically...and its not even close to be honest.
UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conf games.UCF is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.UCF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Marshall.Marshall is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Marshall is 1-4 ATS this season.
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NHL Wednesday

Current Season: 6-7, +0.14

Betting Breakdown
ML Favs: 4-2, +0.28U
------ 2.81U Risked
ML Dogs: 2-2, +0.23U
------ 0.90U Risked
Totals: 0-0, +/- 0.0U
------ 0.00U Risked
Spread: 0-3, -0.37U
------ 0.37U Risked

 

Toronto +160 ML
(0.10U to win 0.16U)

Vancouver -135 ML
(0.54U to win 0.40U)

Washington -1.5 (+100)
(0.20U to win 0.20U)

New York/Washington OVER 6 (-130)
(0.26U to win 0.20U)

Toronto/Pittsburgh OVER 5.5 (-115)
(0.23U to win 0.20U)

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NFL Monday: *** 33-13 (72%) Ytd (LARGE) ***

2010 Record (NFL): 33-13, 72%

2010 Betting Breakdown
---- Spread: 18-5, 80%
---- Totals: 5-2, 67%
---- Halfs: 8-3, 80%
---- Quarters: 2-2, 50%
---- Moneyline: 0-1, 0%


2010 LARGE History (2-0)
Week 1 (W): Kansas City Chiefs +4 (KC 21 - SD 14)
Week 4 (W): New York Giants -3 (NYG 17 - CHI 3)
Week 5: Minnesota Vikings +4.5 (Pending...)
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Vikings +4.5 (LARGE)
Third large play of the season. I think Farve comes out on the big stage and finally gets it done tonight. He has been sloppy in early goings mainly because I think not enough time with his guys. He missed a lot of critical time to get his timing down. It's now a month into the season and he is getting into mid season form. I think he strives in spots like this to show out. Vikings got a moral boost with the addition of Moss. Sure the timing won't be down with Farve yet, but at least it will make the Jets think about the deep ball, will open up lanes for Peterson. Sanchez is a good QB, but I'll go with Farve in the spot light and the points.


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