Jettson12's Blog

Break Your Book: Saturday, 2/13

By Jettson12 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 11:52 PM   60 comments
Preface
Apparently, the only way you can say anything around here is to post your plays...so, I'm going to start posting. I've been reading these forums since October in 2007 and have posted my plays on 1 occasion. I was going to start in January but didn't after I made a post and wen't 0-3 (thought it was bad luck). I seriously doubt anyone even looks at my thread until I string together some wins.

I am currently hitting 56.6% (there is nothing to prove this I know..blah) in CBB for the season and the majority of my plays usually come from "smaller" schools. I do play big games and big teams do not get me wrong but I much prefer betting Ivy, Sunbelt, etc. So, without anymore further pork, here, starting from scratch, is the first edition of Break Your Book! May we all crush the books today!!!!




---------------------------------------------------------
Official Plays_February 13

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risktaker says:
02/13/09 11:52PM
TonyS says:
02/13/09 11:54PM
I'll be looking out for your picks....
Jettson12 says:
02/13/09 11:55PM
12:00 Leans
  • Northeastern Under 121
13:00 Leans
  • Kentucky -4.5
  • Kentucky/Arkansas OVER 142



UNDER_DAWG1 says:
02/14/09 12:01AM
GL
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 12:21AM
Play On
George Mason -5.5

Why: At first sign of seeing this game I thought "UNDER". But after looking at this game more and more I like George Mason's spot here. Mason is a really good home team this year and they will be looking to avenge their loss @ Northeastern on a virtual buzzer beater. Mason's leading scorer suffered a concussion late in the game that helped due them in and there was some question to whether it was a cheap shot. GM is coming off of two straight losses on the road and they now return to their home where they are comfortable and in need of a win.

  • GM is 13-5 ATS this year
  • GM is 7-2 ATS @ home this year
  • GM is 3-1 ATS revenging a road loss against conf opponent
  • GM is 9-3 ATS when facing a team +.500
  • NE is 4-4 ATS as a dog
  • NE is 5-7 ATS when facing a team +.500
  • NE is 1-4 ATS when face a D allowing less than/= to 64ppg
  • NE is 1-2 ATS when a dog of 3.5 to 6 spread

  George Mason -5.5 
buyubengal says:
02/14/09 12:33AM
Good luck brother, but that Kentucky over scares me. Fortson is out for Ark and patterson is out for Ky they are both major contributers on the offensive end.
stickman80733 says:
02/14/09 12:37AM
  BOL  
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 12:41AM
Me too after looking more into it.

Just so you guys know how I do things, when I have a lean it is just from looking at the line and deciding if it could be a play or not. Leans are before I look into anything regarding the game...and yes after reading it bengal it does look shaky.

I much prefer the -4.5 esp after Kentucky's dramatic win over Florida. That is the perfect kind of win for a team to come off a 3-game skid and hit another hot streak. Kentucky is playing for a first round bye, and Arkansas is ... well basically done.



Not sure what I'll do on this one, it'll prolly end up a no play!


Taker, Tony, Dawg and Stickman...
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 06:37AM
Play On
Kentucky -4.5
Kentucky/Arkansas UNDER 142

Why: After looking at this game I think Kentucky is in much better position than Arkansas here. Kentucky is coming off the heels of dropping 3 straight and then won a huge emotional game against Florida. Normally I would maybe think "letdown", but when you have a team coming off a 3 game losing skid I think that is what you need to get them out of their rut. Arkansas is much better off at home, but without Fortson this team is not the same. I think they will keep it close as they should, but down the stretch Kentucky will pull away. UK is 79% from the stripe this year and they will hit FT's down the stretch to cover in this one. Meeks should have a field day against the Arkansas guards.

Why Under: With no Fortson in the Arkansas lineup I just cannot see this game going over. With Patterson questionable for Kentucky, thats all the more reason if he doesn't play to make me think it'll go under. We shall see.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 06:53AM
Play On
Texas Tech +18

Why: Since the middle of January when this TT team got destroyed mentally and physically against Texas and Baylor they have been playing better. Granted, they have been getting whipped at times like against K-State but backdoored a decent game. I think we will see much of the same today. Oklahoma is clearly by far the better team, but TT big men inside could make things a little difficult on OU. I don't think OU will come out as inspired as they should, especially when they are starting a week off dead in the face and a trip to Austin to play Texas. Texas Tech has been awful on the road and OU has been superior. I just see a lethargic outing by OU, especially after whipping Baylor by 15 on the road. OU will win this one easily, but I think they win by 14-15 and TT gets a backdoor during mop up duty.

  • TT is 3-0 ATS as a road dog when getting 12.5 or more.
  • TT is 5-1 ATS when facing teams averaging 77+ per game.
  • OU is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite when giving 12.5 or more.
  • OU is 4-5 ATS in all home games this year.



TT +18 
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 07:06AM
Play On
Washington/Oregon UNDER 151

Why: I hate to bet Unders in a Washington game but this is just too good of a spot not too take it. The main reason I'm taking the under is because I see Washington coming out rather lethargic to start this game just like they did against Oregon State...only Oregon's offense is down right laughable. With a big road test @ UCLA coming up in 5 days I think a look ahead game is in store for the Huskies. I'm expecting an uninspired outing here from them until late in the game. The game shouldn't be in question therefore I don't see FT's pushing this one over the edge. Washington has played a string of really un contested games with this being the last one before their UCLA road matchup.
Mo2025 says:
02/14/09 07:07AM
  buyu...
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 07:15AM
Play On
Florida -10

Why: The last time this Florida team lost a heart breaker (to South Caro) they responded in a huge way by going to Vanderbilt and dominating. I see much of the same in this one and it shouldn't even really be close. Georgia cannot match up with Florida here and their offense might be the worst in the league. They are a dismal from the field, and at one time was playing solid D but even that seems to be gone. Florida whipped this team at home, and they will whip them again on the road as they are just clearly the better ball club all the way around. It might be close early, but theres no way UGA can keep up with Florida on the scoreboard here. They haven't won a game since December, they are done. UGA is 2-4 ATS when facing teams who average more than 77 a game. They just cannot keep up on the offensive end.


Florida -10 


Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 11:23AM
***** Double Down Play On *****
Texas/Colorado UNDER 127

Why: System play. 69% over the last 3 seasons is the golden number backing us here.

What is a Double Down: "Double Down" feature is a large for me. Please note that Double Down plays are system plays. They stem from public line movement over the course of a 3 year period. All my plays are for the same unit, and my double downs are for just 1 more.
lapic22 says:
02/14/09 11:26AM
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 11:52AM
***** Double Down Play On *****
Hofstra/Delaware UNDER 135

Why: System play. 67% over the last 3 seasons is the golden number backing us here.

What is a Double Down:

"Double Down" feature is a large for me. Please note that Double Down

plays are system plays. They stem from public line movement over the

course of a 3 year period. All my plays are for the same unit, and my

double downs are for just 1 more.

Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 12:14PM
***** Double Down UPDATE ALERT *****
(PRESSING) Florida -10

Why: System play. 68% over the last 3 seasons is the golden number backing us here.

What is a Double Down:

"Double Down" feature is a large for me. Please note that Double Down

plays are system plays. They stem from public line movement over the

course of a 3 year period. All my plays are for the same unit, and my

double downs are for just 1 more.

Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 12:18PM
Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • [11:00] ---- Mason -5.5
  • [12:00] ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • [12:00] ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  • [13:00] ---- Texas Under 127
  • [14:00] ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • [14:30] ---- Florida -10
  • [16:00] ---- Delaware UNDER 135

Best of luck to all!


PGram13 says:
02/14/09 01:39PM
George Mason -5.5
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 01:51PM
Play On
South Carolina -2

Why: Probably a square play, but USC has too much athleticism for Bama here. Green is not 100% for Bama after suffering a hip pointer in the LSU game. Alabama is begging people to go to the games, giving ticket vouchers for up coming games to the first 5,000 people. Home court will basically be a wash. South Carolina is the better team here all the way around, and have much more to play for. I don't see a slip up here. I do think the game stays relatively close though as Alabama's interim coach seems to be doing a decent job in getting his troops ready to go. South Caro is just to much though.
arsenal588 says:
02/14/09 02:01PM
Hey I think you got yourself noticed already, everything is nice and organized with a little write-up. At the very least, all your picks have some good background so over the long run that it will pay off. Good luck !!
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 02:13PM
George Mason -5.5


Hey thanks Arsenal. Looking forward to not only being a poster, but a reader as well my friend. Best of luck to you this weekend!
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 02:19PM
I left TT off the official card for some reason.

** UPDATED ** Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • [Win] ---- Mason -5.5
  • [12:00] ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • [12:00] ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  • [13:00] ---- Texas Under 127
  • [13:30] ---- Texas Tech +18
  • [14:00] ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • [14:00] ---- South Carolina -2
  • [14:30] ---- Florida -10
  • [16:00] ---- Delaware UNDER 135

Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:11PM
** UPDATED ** Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  • [13:00] ---- Texas Under 127
  • [13:30] ---- Texas Tech +18
  • [14:00] ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • [14:00] ---- South Carolina -2
  • [14:30] ---- Florida -10
  • [16:00] ---- Delaware UNDER 135

2-0-1 out of the gate....will have lines for this evening here shortly.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:25PM
Thank you JMon...I am not touching any part of the KU/KSU game. If I was playing the game though I would be on K-State and a no play on the total. Good call on Washington Under, its looking good right now, I think Washington will come out firing in the 2nd half, just hope we don't get back doored here.



Good luck on your weekend.
krisguerndt says:
02/14/09 03:29PM
very good thread here! keep the awesome picks coming. been on all of them so far and liking it. BOL keep it up jet!
sailing58 says:
02/14/09 03:34PM
Nice job and thanks for posting 
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:36PM
Play On
Tennessee-Martin -12

Why: The Skyhawks are cruising right now and they are putting up a bunch of points. They beat Tech on the road earlier in the season by 11, but the game literally was never in question. Tech looked bad, and they had no answer for Hudson. Martin likes to run and they will pressure you...Tech didn't handle the pressure well at home, and they will not handle the pressure well on the road either. UT-Martin should run away with this one early.

  • UTM is 13-6 ATS this season.
  • UTM is 10-3 ATS against conference opponents this season.
  • UTM is 7-0 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest.
  • TT is 6-9 ATS against conference opponents.
  • TT is 2-8 ATS against teams +.500.
  • TT is 0-3 ATS when facing teams who avg. 77+ ppg.

UTM -12
D-Town says:
02/14/09 04:59PM
GWarner27 says:
02/14/09 11:22PM
very crisp and organized
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 11:36PM
Thanks Warner!


Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 09:04PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- Troy PK
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 10:27PM
You are looking good Jmon...love the Fresno pick man. Thanks for stopping in dude. Tomo we will hit them again!



Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 10:28PM
You are looking good Jmon...love the Fresno pick man. Thanks for stopping in dude. Tomo we will hit them again!



Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 10:32PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
  • ---- Troy PK
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL Over 130

  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- Portland +9
  • ---- Idaho/SJSU Under 131.5
  • ---- San Fran +17

Adding San Fran +17
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 11:10PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
  • ---- Troy PK
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL Over 130

  • ---- Portland +9
  • ---- Idaho/SJSU Under 131.5
  • ---- San Fran +17

8-7-2 going into the home stretch with 3 games to go. I do not normally play this many games, this was just the product of me having absolutely nothing to do today. I usually only play anywhere from 2-6 games a night. Here's to closing 3-0 and finishing 61% on the day!!!!!!!!!!


Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 06:57PM
With a total that low and a spread that high, might want to look into taking the spread. Not sure about that game I pulled off.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 07:07PM
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- UCF OVER 131

Watching Stanford blow a 22 point lead (I think it got up too) is almost sickening. The way it happened down the stretch makes me not want to bet anymore....but thats the way it goes, you win some and you lose some.

Need to go undefeated tonight after TAMU continues to suck it up to have a winning day.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 08:26PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
  • ---- Troy PK


Adding Play On
Troy - PK

Why: Troy is the hottest team in the sunbelt right now and I think they will benefit from WKU not playing in 7 days.  When you have a team as hot as Troy, it benefits to keep playing...and keep playing they will. I look for this one to actually be a 7-9 point outcome and I am expecting Troy to win rather easily. WKU has not been great ATS, Troy on the other hand lately has, esp in conference. The key stat?

  • Troy is 3-1 ATS when revenging a blow out loss of 20+.
  • WKU is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when playing after 5-6 days rest (3-6 last 3 years ATS)
Troy is the play tonight Gents.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 09:23PM
Nice hit JMon..
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 09:25PM

I like Portland tonight...I will probably end up taking it. Still looking at a couple of 10pm games. The only thing that scares me is it seems a good bit of people are taking PORT.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 09:41PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card
  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
  •   ---- South Carolina -2
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- Troy PK
  • ---- Portland +9
  • ---- Idaho/SJSU Under 131.5


6-6-2 with 5 games to go.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 05:07PM
** UPDATED ** Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- South Carolina -2
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 05:39PM
Play On
Texas A&M +5.5

Why: Baylor has played a tough schedule and I think while they should probably win this game, they will win a close one. TAMU will play scrappy ball as they have a good chance to make some noise over the next 3 games and I like the spot they have put themselves in. Baylor has definitely faced better competition, but if things do not go their way early, I think this Baylor team is in for a long night because they will give up. TAMU keeps it close here.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 05:44PM
** UPDATED ** Final Card

  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- South Carolina -2
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- Texas A&M +5.5
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- Ole Miss +12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- UCF OVER 131

At the moment it looks like I'll be .500 going into the night cap. Delaware looks to be going under barring OT and Stanford is dominating Cal.

6 games tonight...hoping to go 4-2 for a profitable day!

GL to all tonight..
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:45PM
Play On
Stanford +6

Why: I think Stanford's post play will get the best of Cal again today. Cal has been a solid team this year, and is pretty good ATS but I think today they have a hiccup and could even lose this game. Do not have much to say about this one, just a hunch. People are pounding CAL and the line isn't going anywhere. I think its because Stanford's post play serves up a real issue for Cal.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:49PM
Play On
Stanford +6

Why: Stanford's inside presence gave Cal fits last game and I think it will be much of the same in this one. Cal has been money this year, but I think its time I fade them in this one as well. People are POUNDING Cal but the line isn't budging and I think thats because Stanford's inside presence will present a real problem again for Cal. I like Stanford here in this situation.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:55PM
** UPDATED ** Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • ---- South Carolina -2
  • ---- Florida -10
  • ---- Delaware UNDER 135
  • ---- Tennessee Martin -12
  • ---- ULL OVER 130
  • ---- Boise State +4.5
  • ---- Stanford +6
  • ---- UCF OVER 131
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:57PM
Thanks to the guys stopping in...Here's to hoping we have a better finish tonight!

BOL to all of you...


Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:44PM



I was just thinking the same thing!

LoL...Colorado/Texas is prolly on their way for a L as well. Let's get them tonight!
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:51PM
** UPDATED ** Official Card_12:00 - 17:00

  • ---- Mason -5.5
  • ---- Kentucky -4.5
  •   ---- Kentucky UNDER 142
  •  ---- Texas Under 127
  •  ---- Texas Tech +18
  • [14:00] ---- Washington UNDER 151
  • [14:00] ---- South Carolina -2
  • [14:30] ---- Florida -10
  • [16:00] ---- Delaware UNDER 135
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 03:59PM
Play On
UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State OVER 130

Why:

UL-Lafayette, despite being arguably the most talented team in the sunbelt, is a disaster. They have poor coaching, and no leadership on their team. They basically refuse to play defense. I wouldn't normally bet ASU and the over but its at ULL and I think ULL will put up a good bit of points at home. I do not think ULL will win so ASU will have to throw some up as well. I see this game hitting 140's.

  • Over is 10-3 in ULL's conference outings.
  • Over is 8-2 when ULL is playing a +.500 team.
  • Over is 5-2 when ULL is at home.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:07PM
Play On
Boise State +4.5

Why: Boise is a much better home team than they are a road team. I think they were looking past Fresno State and it snuck up on them. Utah State has been playing (and winning) close games all year long and I see this one no different. It'll come down to the wire and I actually think Boise could win this one straight up.
Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:18PM
Play On
Ole Miss +12

Why: If LSU would have their PG it would be different I believe, but without him, I'm going with Ole Miss. The Rebels were heating up before the pitiful performance against Vanderbilt. LSU is coming off a double OT thriller on the road and I think they could come out a bit dead today especially without one of their better players. They already are not deep as it is (although they could have the best starting 5 in the SEC). I like Ole Miss' spot here. I have ridden LSU a ton this year, and they are great ATS, but I think they fall here. They are due.

  • OM is 11-4 ATS when facing a team +.500.
  • OM is 5-2 ATS on the road this year.
  • OM is 8-4 ATSas a dog this year.
  • OM is 2-0 ATS when revenging a home L vs. opponent.


Jettson12 says:
02/14/09 04:32PM
Play On
Tulsa/Central Florida OVER 131

Why: Central Florida is slumping bad right now...and part of me wants to take Tulsa in this one. I will go with just the OVER for now and its because I think UCF needs to come out and play well. They haven't played well the last 3 games and I think they will come out and shoot the ball well today. I really think Tulsa will walk in and beat them, but UCF has just been on a bad run lately I'm scared to take it in fear they might come out of it tonight. I do think they will shot the ball well in their own gym tonight, and I think Tulsa puts up points on them after a horrid display against Memphis they will bounce back.

  • Over is 6-3 in Tulsa road games.
  • Over is 3-1 after Tulsa scores 60 or less.
  • Over is 8-5 when Tulsa faces a team +.500.
  • Over is 6-2 in UCF home games.
  • Over is 4-1 when UCF plays less than 61 ppg.
  • Over is 5-2 when UCF plays on Saturdays.
Jettson12 says:
02/15/09 12:08AM
Super, super day JMon.

Last bet for shits and giggles...HAW +2

PORT/Stanford meltdowns did me in today.
sailing58 says:
02/14/09 03:36PM
BTW should have left Tex Tech off the card 
JCWhy83 says:
02/14/09 04:39PM
nice write-ups 
GL 
stickman80733 says:
02/14/09 04:24PM
great write ups Jett BOL today 
GRINDINunits420 says:
02/14/09 08:38PM
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Team: Alabama Crimson Tide
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