Jettson12's Blog

Break Your Book: Monday, 2/16

By Jettson12 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, February 16, 2009 01:50 AM   31 comments
Preface
Another profit turned in yesterday as we hit 64% on the day. If I go 55% on any day I am happy because that is profit. Sometimes we get greedy and want to always hover around 65% but lets just be honest with ourselves, that isn't realistic! Stay the course, get your money in on the right sides and do not chase.

Thats how you win...and thats what Vegas DOESN'T want you to do. You cannot beat Vegas if you aren't smart and patient. Who am I to preach though! Lets try to turn another winning day today and hit the books hard. There are some intriguing lines just from early glances. I'll my first play written up in about 10 minutes. BOL to everyone today!
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ilovekim says:
02/16/09 01:53AM
NICE. I HOPE YOUR FIRST PICK IS ON THE PITT/UCONN GAME
adlai52 says:
02/16/09 01:54AM
Pitt?
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 01:55AM
Statistics
Sunday Record (ATS): 4-3 (57%)
Sunday Record (O/U): 3-1 (75%)


YTD Record (ATS): 12-8-1 (60%)
YTD Record (O/U):  5-5-1 (50%)
marksteg22 says:
02/16/09 01:56AM
Keep firing em out Jet!

 

That BG game was absolute bullshit.

Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:09AM
Play On
Louisiana Tech +9

Why: I truly do not believe you will find a more improved basketball team in the WAC over the last month or so than Louisiana Tech. This team has been knocking on the door all year long and they are finally punching it down. They won on the road @ Nevada, should have beaten Utah State on the road, and dominated Fresno at home in their last 3. Before that their 3 losses were by a combined 8 points (5 in one game). They play tough hard nosed defense and they have a coach they believe in.

New Mexico State has won by 10 or more only twice since January began. They are are young team and real inconsistent. Sometimes they play great, and other times they look like a JV team...all in a matter of a 5 minute swing. I think going up against a Louisiana Tech team who doesn't wow you, infact, often bores you to sleep may give this Undisciplined team fits. This is the worst kind of match-up you want because La Tech will just wear you down and make you play down to their level. They lull you to sleep. I think New Mexico State will press here, but press too much. La Tech enters the game a 9 point dog, and if my local offered ML I would probably play a small, small bet on the ML and try to strike gold. I like Tech's spot here with a world of momentum behind them and playing well/improving every game. Their defense prevails here...Tech to the bank.

  • LT is 13-6 ATS in all games this year.
  • LT is 8-2 ATS in all road games this year.
  • LT is 9-1 ATS when facing a team +.500.
  • LT is 3-1 ATS when a road dog of 6.5 to 9.
  • NM is 9-14 ATS this year.
  • NM is 4-8 ATS in conference.
  • NM is 0-2 ATS when facing a team sub .500.
  • NM is 1-3 ATS when facing a team giving up 64ppg or less.


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:12AM
Agree Steg...I've been moosed 4 times this week on UNDERS, the Drexel/Northeastern game earlier in the week was worse IMO! I knew I should have just taking EMU but I was afraid of a backdoor...no way I thought the over would backdoor!




Thats all for now gents...I'll have more tomo and a play on the Pitt game tomo afternoon. Alot to look at in that game.

BOL to everyone!


stickman80733 says:
02/16/09 06:16AM
 great stuff , keep up great work
fatdan215 says:
02/16/09 06:27AM
glewis461 says:
02/16/09 07:35AM
Love La Tech tonight.  I parlayed them with Pitt the second the lines came out.

 

ben3496 says:
02/16/09 08:19AM
GL
D-Town says:
02/16/09 09:20AM
goinggone says:
02/16/09 09:29AM
LT away 8-3 ATS

Is this what you are going by?

 

NM is tough on there own Home court=reason they are -9

GWarner27 says:
02/16/09 10:53AM
bol
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:24PM
Play On
Iona +4

Why: The reason I like this Iona team is they always seem to be in close games. 7 of their 14 losses have been decided by 4 points or fewer. Wow. They are a team that is scrappy and get after you. The thing that scares me about this play is their ability to go scoreless for 5-6 minutes at a time. It has happened often. They went scoreless for like 12 minutes against Niagra. I like their spot here, considering Siena has two huge games coming up in regards to Northern Iowa and Niagra. Given the reason the fact they are playing a real pesky Iona team, I see this one staying close. They'll have the home crowd behind them and will give Siena fits.

  • SE is 4-11 ATS against conference opponents.
  • SE is 2-7 ATS after scoring 80+.
  • SE is 1-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record.
  • IO is 9-5 ATS as a dog.
  • IO is 10-4 ATS when facing a team with a winning record.


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:34PM
Play On
Canisius / Loyola MD UNDER 132.5

Why: Not much to say here other than Canisius' offense is downright garbage. They have not scored 60 in the last 5 games and have actually regressed as the season goes along. I think Loyola will come out flat after dropping 4 straight and playing an average at best opponent. First half should only have around 40-45 points, and unless there is another moose like in the EMU under game, this one should go well under its total. Canisius is below 60% from the charity stripe and have horrid numbers shooting the ball.


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:39PM
No...going by what I said in the entire write up.

JMon, BOL to you today bud glad you made a run back last night...we'll get them today!


Thanks to those who have stopped in!


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 02:51PM
Play On
Pittsburgh / UConn OVER 134.5

Why: Pitt has a hot offense right now and without Dyson I think they will try to get this game fast paced. I think this game will be a close one and I am expecting it to pan out almost like an NBA game down the stretch. Both teams are fairly solid from the stripe, esp. UCONN as they are hitting almost 70% from the stripe. I think with fact that both teams love to crash the boards, and it will be a close game down the stretch leads me to think this one will go over. I'm betting on about 12-14 points in the last 1:30 of the game if everything goes as planned.
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 03:08PM
Final Card

[18:00] ---- Canisius UNDER 132.5
[18:00] ---- Pittsburgh +3
[18:00] ---- Pittsburgh OVER 134.5
[18:30] ---- Charleston OVER 154
[18:30] ---- Iona +4
[20:00] ---- Louisiana Tech +8.5
nc1capper says:
02/16/09 03:21PM
nice work on good logic, may take a nibble on a few on these,,nice work
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 03:44PM
Thanks NC1capper...BOL to you if you take the Pitt UNDER I saw you were looking at that one.



Thanks for dropping in.
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 07:04PM
JMon,

All my plays are for 1 unit. I used to do units, but it seemed all my lesser unit games were hitting and my big ones were losing!!!

Now I just do 1 unit across the board and every now and then I'll press it up for 2 units. I would be VERY wary of the Canisius game. I like our pitt over and pitt.

As far as La Tech...I'm as confident in it as any play I make. I can easily see how you would want to go NMSU. I'm on Tech I like the way they are playing now and I think they can get out and defend/aggrivate a young NMSU team...but thats me. BOL if you choose the other side friend.

TIP OFF ON THE WAY!


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 07:53PM
Adding Plays On
Texas A&M +2
Texas A&M UNDER 132
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 08:28PM
Well there it is...as I noted too the reason I was scared to take Iona. They scored 2 points to close out the last 7 minutes of the half. Hopefully that was their only drought of the night, cannot afford another one.
Macwestie1 says:
02/16/09 08:32PM
GL Jettson12

A&Mwink wink
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 09:11PM
Final Card

---- Pitt +3
---- Pitt OVER 134.5
---- Charleston OVER 154
---- Canisius UNDER 132.5 (close, but no cigar)



[18:30] ---- Iona +4
[20:00] ---- Louisiana Tech +8.5
[20:00] ---- TAMU +2
[20:00] ---- TAMU UNDER 132


3-1...another good start.
RedDog54 says:
02/16/09 09:21PM
La. tech is my top play tonite!

BOL Jettson 

Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 09:27PM
GL RedDog...lets take it home..


Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 09:36PM
---- Pitt +3
---- Pitt OVER 134.5
---- Charleston OVER 154
---- Canisius UNDER 132.5 (close, but no cigar)
 ---- Iona +4


[20:00] ---- Louisiana Tech +8.5
[20:00] ---- TAMU +2
[20:00] ---- TAMU UNDER 132
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:11PM
That is the lone reason I took Tech. NMSU is a solid team but they are young and very undisciplined! I didn't think Tech would fall as far as they did in the game, but I never felt the game was over (cover wise) simply because NMSU is very unpredictable. I will never put my money on a team that is undisciplined (90% of the time!!!).

IMO...it panned out exactly like I thought it would minus Tech getting down by 17 at one point.
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:12PM
Solid day JMon...good call on UT over. I'm done betting UT and the under they have focked me 3 times this year.
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:15PM
Final Card

---- Pitt +3
---- Pitt OVER 134.5
---- Charleston OVER 154
 ---- Louisiana Tech +8.5

 ---- TAMU +2
---- Canisius UNDER 132.5 (close, but no cigar)
 ---- Iona +4
 ---- TAMU UNDER 132


5-3 on the day...3-1 ATS. When am I going to learn to give up on the O/U!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I'll take 63% anyday of the week.



Thanks to all those who dropped in today, see you guys tomo!






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Joined: September 2007
Location: Louisiana
Team: Alabama Crimson Tide
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