Jettson12's Blog

Break Your Book: Tuesday, 2/17

By Jettson12 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, February 16, 2009 11:30 PM   28 comments
Preface
Another solid day of 63% yesterday. Back to back days above 60% I'll take those all day long. We are starting to see a common trend here with the betting public getting outright bombarded in certain situations. I think there is a lot of value siding with Vegas right now in the right circumstance. That doesn't mean I am an advocate of picking against the public everytime, but when the situation is right (Pitt today, BC yesterday, etc etc) then make the play.

Earlier in the year we saw the public plays were on fire, now I think the roles are reversing. We have to stay sharp and find good spots to get our money in. I think when you are capping smaller teams and weaker conferences there is much less "vegas" involved. Thats just a personal opinion.

Since I've started posting, I have been in the black all 3 days. Thats my goal, to end up black. Whether its by 1 game or by 10...it does not matter to me so long as I have winning days. Thats how you win, by not getting greedy and by staying the course (like I said yesterday). We'll continue to find the right spot to get our money in and we will continue to win. BOL to everyone today...may your card be live!!!!!!!!




First play / write up coming shortly..
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Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:34PM
Statistics
Sunday Record (ATS): 4-3 (57%)
Sunday Record (O/U): 3-1 (75%)

Monday Record (ATS): 3-1 (75%)
Monday Record (O/U): 2-2 (50%)
  • Total Week: 12-7 (63%)

YTD Record (ATS): 15-9-1 (63%)
YTD Record (O/U):  7-7-1 (50%)
ilovekim says:
02/16/09 11:35PM
NICE JOB JETTSON. HAD PITT MYSELF AND I TAILED ON THE OVER. DOUBLE UP! GREAT JOB
nc1capper says:
02/16/09 11:45PM
nice work, keep it going, tar heel eyes will be watching
Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:49PM
Play On
Kentucky -1.5

Why: This might be the biggest square play of the day tomorrow but I do not care. The line is off and off badly. Vanderbilt just does not have the horses to compete with athletic teams regardless if this game is at home or not. I realize Oglvie did not play the first time they met, but I just don't seem to care here in this situation. Vandy is crap against teams who get up in you and play defense, and crap against teams who are more athletic. They just cannot handle pressure well. This is a must win for them, but I don't see it happening.

Kentucky, just coming off a 3 game skid, is back on the hot streak. It took a last second bucket against Florida to get this team out of their funk, but that basket brought them together...I really believe that. Kentucky by 8-12 here. Kentucky is absolutely money from the charity stripe almost hitting 80% from the line (78% to be exact). Vandy doesn't have an answer for Meeks. He may score 100 tomo. Vandy doesn't fare well against teams that can score points, and tom night will be no different. Square play or not, Kentucky rolls tom...The only trend that needs to be posted?

  • Vanderbilt is 1-7 ATS against teams averaging 77+ ppg.




Jettson12 says:
02/16/09 11:52PM
Capper!!     BOL tomo man...


KIM..glad I could help. OVER!
ZonaCats says:
02/17/09 12:08AM
so your not factoring in Vandy's best player? 

guess it won't matter since meeks is dropping a hundo...
jerry_garcia1 says:
02/17/09 12:09AM
GL tomorrow

 

HeadOverHeart says:
02/17/09 12:14AM
Public will be all over Kentucky tomorrow.

And they might be right.
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 12:23AM
Kentucky has good shot blockers and post defense, I think they will keep him in check. Even if they don't though...I don't think Vandy can run with Kentucky. This has disaster written all over it just like when UT walked into Vandy and obliterated them. Vandy just isn't a good basketball team this year.

UT and Florida embarrassed this team, Kentucky and South Carolina beat them already by just out athleting them. It'll happen again tomo. They just don't have what it takes to play teams that score high numbers and like to run.
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 12:24AM
Agreed...I'm a square tomo!
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 12:35PM
Play On
Austin Peay / Jacksonville St OVER 148.5

Why: For starters both teams are average close to 40% from behind the arc on offense. Then when you look at defense...what defense? Both team defenses are giving up over 45% FG percentage and both are giving up over 35% 3ball percentage on defense. These two defenses are horrid, and that might have something to do with the style of play preferred.

In their last 13 games Peay has hit 80 9 times...and only under 70 once. Defensively they have given up 80 8 times and only given up under 70 once. Wow! They are solid from the stripe hitting almost 70% as well. Jacksonville State doesn't put up the numbers that Peay does but the last time they faced was an 86-80 ball game. I don't see a game out of hand here, so it will come down to FT at the end. Both teams beind solid from the line I'm taking the over here.

  • Over is 15-2 in all AP games.
  • Over is 11-2 in all AP conference games.
  • Over is 9-0 after AP allows 80 or more.
  • Over is 4-2 when JS faces a team +.500.
  • Over is 3-0 when JS faces a team averaging 77+ ppg.
  • Over is 4-0 after JS allows 60 points or less.


Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 12:42PM
Play On
BYU / New Mexico OVER 145

Why: The last time these two teams faced the total hit 143, but that was only because the game was relatively out of question down the stretch. New Mexico caught fire in the 2nd half and extended the lead tremendously. Tonight, I don't think that will be the case. I see a closer game tonight (and I may take NM +7 here) than we did in the first one and a close game down the stretch. BYU is out for revenge here from their embarrassing performance on the road against NM. Both squads can fill it up from 3 ball as they both are hitting 49% are above. They are both good from the line...and down the stretch this one will get pushed over into the 155 range.

  • Over is 5-1 when NM is a dog.
  • Over is 10-3 when BYU faces a team +.500.


Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 01:03PM
Play On
Ohio +6.5 (Waiting for Movement)

Why: I love trap games and this is one. Kent State has the #1 Morehead State rolling into town in 3 days to play for big things. Yes, I know Ohio knocked off KSU already and they might be out for a little revenge, but since Ohio's latest hiccup in going 3-3, they have lost their luster. Ohio will give Kent State trouble again because they have the size advantage here. Ohio is basically 6-4/6-5 across the board with a big 7 footer down low (off the bench I believe) and they presents problems for Kent State. I think the biggest reason for me taking Ohio here is free throws.

Ohio shoots 73% from the stripe.
Kent shoots 63% from the stripe.

More often than not if there is an average to below average FT shooting team giving points, I'm going to lean the opposite way simply because its hard for them to cover down the stretch when FT shooting is a must. I like Ohio here, they play good defense and they will out work Kent on the boards. Ohio went into a 3 game funk but they won't lay down...I see them coming out tonight and picking off a team that coud be looking ahead to play the conference's best in the next game.

  • Kent State is 3-10 ATS when facing a team +.500.




Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 02:30PM
Final Card
[18:00] ---- Purdue -2.5
[18:30] ---- Ohio +6.5
[18:30] ---- Clemson -10 (hook)
[19:00] ---- Evansville +12
[19:00] ---- Jacksonville St. +1
[19:00] ---- Jacksonville St OVER 148.5
[20:00] ---- Kentucky -1.5
[21:00] ---- BYU OVER 145

DOVJAK says:
02/17/09 02:32PM
love kent tonight       hope it stays low
70-Six says:
02/17/09 02:32PM
buckeye34 says:
02/17/09 02:35PM
GL ON YOUR PLAYS. ON QUITE A FEW OF THEM MYSELF.
nc1capper says:
02/17/09 02:43PM
looks like it might be a winner~~~BOL~~
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 04:08PM
Adding Play On
Southern Miss -8.5 (Waiting for Movement)

Why: 66% of the money is coming in on ECU +7.5...so the line should go down right? It went up to 8.5. I'll take my chances in resting my money in Vegas' hands hoping they know what they are doing.
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 07:05PM
Jmon,

If I had to pick a game I would say Kentucky. The only thing that scares me is the public is all over it and those haven't seem to been winning lately. But, I would say Kentucky, the Austin Peay over or Evansville would be safest plays. I just don't see UK losing here in this spot..Vandy is awful. If I had a POD and never looked at betting trends, it would be UK.

I'm on the Clippers and Nets tonight! You?

Agreed...I like to look around and see who is on what but I like to play my own plays unless I am in a real slump!

  Lets crush them tonight!
Macwestie1 says:
02/17/09 07:12PM
BOL Jettson12
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 07:29PM
Adding Plays On
Southern Miss -9
New Mexico +6.5
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 09:21PM
Final Card
 ---- Purdue -2.5
 ---- Clemson -10 (hook)

 ---- Ohio +6.5
 ---- Evansville +12
 ---- Jacksonville St. +1
 ---- Jacksonville St OVER 148.5
 ---- Kentucky -1.5
 ---- BYU OVER 145
 ---- Southern Miss -9
 ---- New Mexico +6.5


2-0...looking good in some others
mrod112 says:
02/17/09 09:25PM
can you shed some light on new mexico i was leaning on byu
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 09:35PM
Both teams are playing very good ball right now but I think NM matches up well with BYU. They torched them behind superior shooting in the first time they met and while I don't think it'll be like that again I do think NM keeps this one close. Both teams can fill it up on offense and have comparable defenses. New Mexico (8-2) has been very good in conference ATS...the same cannot be said for BYU.

All in all, both teams score very well and I think this one will stay a 5 point game in the end.

IMO this one could go either way...whichever team is the hottest from behind the arc will prevail here. I like NM.
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 10:04PM
Final Card

 ---- Purdue -2.5
 ---- Clemson -10 (hook)
---- Southern Miss -9
---- Evansville +12
---- Ohio +6.5
---- Jacksonville St. +1
---- Jacksonville St OVER 148.5

 ---- Kentucky -1.5
 ---- BYU OVER 145
 ---- New Mexico +6.5


4-3 going into the night cap...if UK hangs in there I will love my position to finish 7-3. Only bet I wasn't overly excited about was the Jacksonville St +1...probably should have laid off of that one.

   LETS GO NEW MEX!!!!!!!!
stickman80733 says:
02/17/09 10:21PM
nice calls, E'Ville was on point, ballsy 
Jettson12 says:
02/17/09 10:56PM
Well what started out very promising has turned into a nightmare...I am officially done playing totals.

Vandy is playing out of their minds, but I don't think I've seen as lopsided a called game as this one in a while. I don't think the refs are in on anything thats not what I'm saying, Vandy has shotten what 30 FT to UK's 14? The game is being called ticky tack on UK's end of the floor on D and loose on Vandy's.

Oh well.

Here's to a strong finish from UNM to close the night .500!




Not going to rule out a UK comeback, just doesn't look good as Vandy can do nothing wrong right now.
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Joined: September 2007
Location: Louisiana
Team: Alabama Crimson Tide
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