Jettson12's Blog

Break Your Book (CBB): Thursday, 2/19

By Jettson12 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, February 19, 2009 10:32 AM   40 comments
Preface
Big day yesterday going 6-1. Those don't come around very often so when they do it's always a great thing. There were some totals I was really looking at playing, and I think I would have gone .500 if I had. Still sticking to my guns, no fricking totals. Moving on to today. There is some good value out there today and some good lines. I particularly like betting Sunbelt games, but the lines in the sunbelt today are a bit tough. I haven't dug too deep yet, just getting started. First play should be up shortly with a write up as always.

BOL everyone today...lets crush them again.


Weekly Record
2/15: 4-3 (57%)
2/16: 3-1 (75%)
2/17: 4-4 (50%)
2/18: 6-1 (86%)
  • Current Week To Date: 17-9-0 (65%)  
2/19:
2/20:
2/21:
  • Current Year To Date: 25-14-1 (64%)  


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Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 10:47AM
Play On
UL Monroe +11.5

Why: In ULM's last 11 losses, only 2 have come by 12 points or more. They are a gritty team that hangs around and hangs around until they might just sneak up and beat you one day. They are a much improved team the last 4 games and I'm looking for that to continue tonight. UNT is hot right now as well, but I think when you look at the fact that Sunbelt West leader, ULAR is coming to town in 2 days, we could have a slip up here. UL-Monroe will come out inspired, UNT will come out looking ahead to the big showdown pitting #1/#2 in the west in 2 days. Love ULM here in this spot.



king-olaf says:
02/19/09 11:06AM
NICE WRITE UP...BOL...NICE RUN YESTERDAY!!
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:07AM
Play On
UL Lafayette +6

Why: Despite what many may think, ULL is probably the most talented team in the sunbelt...athletically. They are basically 6'6 across the board, all can run jump and play aggressive...the problem is they play very undisciplined at times. I got a tip on this one that I should take the under because ULL is planning on slowing it down to counter Denver's motion offense. They don't want to come down, fire up a 3-ball like normal then sprint back and have to defend for 20-28 seconds...then do it all over again. ULL will work the ball and control clock as well, and try and work it into the low post where their powerful bigs should do well. Denver has decent size, but ULL has much more depth and size than Denver. If they can execute this plan, I love ULL here. I'll be sticking to my no total system here though...not playing totals. I do like ULL here, if they execute.






Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:07AM
That should read..."at least 6'6 across the board"
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:19AM
Play On
San Diego +13

Why: I'm not buying this one. San Diego returned all 5 starters from last year, granted they lost their pg, but the talent is there. For some reason this team has not been playing well down the stretch. I watched St. Mary's without Mills against Gonzaga (I bet SMS) and they got completely lucky to cover. The crowd was behind them it was a big time atmosphere. Tonight that will not be the case as a .500 ball club (a very, very dangerous one though) enters the building. This will be a very ugly game, the Gaels won by 13 with Mills on the road, I see this one being decided between 8-11 without him.




Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:26AM
Play On
Western Kentucky +2

Why: After losing to Troy, Western is now in a must win and hope for some help if they want to finish atop the SBC East standings. They go to ULAR and I think they come out victorious. They battled Troy up and down the floor and led for the better part of the game. The thing Troy can do so well that ULAR struggles to do, is score in flurries. It seemed like just when WKU was on the verge of putting the game away, Troy came out and nailed 2 three balls, or went on a 5-0 run, etc. ULAR won't be able to do that consistently and I think WKU walks away with this one down the stretch.





dopalicous says:
02/19/09 11:27AM
nice card
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:27AM
Jmon,

Welcome! I hope you continue to have success with your totals, I'm going to continue laying off them for now though. Yes I am itching...lol, but I'll lay off them until I start to slump ATS. BOL tonight pal.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:28AM
Doap...O-Laf... 
occy777 says:
02/19/09 12:19PM

Jettson--nice write ups i was looking at Denver and North Texas but not pulling the trigger. I will say though, USD (i Live in SD) is playing really bad currently, some disciplinary stuff going on, can't make free throws and no confidence. Everyone here expected them to do some really good things this year but.....With their experience they are capable of putting together a really good game but i don't see it here. After the home win against SF expecting to go on the road and win a few and that has not happened. SF is bad and the 10 point home win was actually a struggle. ST Mary's will win big here, probably by 20 or more.

fatdan215 says:
02/19/09 12:19PM
jski says:
02/19/09 12:53PM
Payback time for Ark LR?
jski says:
02/19/09 12:55PM
Really like the L.Monroe play.
GWarner27 says:
02/19/09 12:59PM
i've decided that for next season i'm going to pick a conference that is always lined to focus on more than any other because that seems like a good way to hurt the books.

...i feel like i know a lot about the Big XII, but there's too much of a focus on that so i think i'll look for a MAAC or a SBC. Any suggestions?

...oh and good luck today jett
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 01:49PM
This year I've spent a lot of focus on the Sun Belt and the CUSA. I feel pretty good about betting those two conferences, granted you won't always win but I think its definitely an advantage if you follow one of the lesser conferences closely. IMO, there are more off lines in the weaker conferences because there are much less bets, people want to bet and watch the game, not bet and get updates every 7 minutes! Just a personal opinion.

I chose to follow more CUSA and SBC. I would look into the OVC and SBC next year. OVC seems like a good conference to bet. I think the SBC could be the easiest...this coming from someone who follows it.



BOL GW
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 01:51PM
Thanks for the thoughts, and I appreciate the info. Still like SD here, and GL to you if you go with SMS...I can very easily see that being a good play!

Thanks for stopping in pal.


Jski, WKU takes it to them tonight...and I love ULM as well!

BOL tonight Dan!
marksteg22 says:
02/19/09 01:57PM
Nice work Jet, i was debating playing that Denver under and i think you just convinced me pull the trigger. Good luck tonight.
amd says:
02/19/09 01:58PM
Good luck buddy
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 02:00PM
Steg..if I played totals I would be all over it. PS, I'm from Lafayette, LA and the tip comes from a certain person who could possibly be on the coaching staff.....




AMD...thanks keep crushing them dude.
marksteg22 says:
02/19/09 02:06PM
That's awesome, thanks.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 02:17PM
Play On
Rutgers +18

Why: Can't believe I missed this one this morning. This line has me really, really puzzled. Rutgers has a knack for losing games by 12-13 points. Villanova has had 6 days off I believe after their pitiful performance @ WVU. Thats a long time to think about how bad you played, and when you add to the fact they are going to Syracuse in their next one I think we see a small letdown here. I hate to bet against a team that puts up a lot of points like Nova does, but Rutgers hangs around with the best of them. I think they'll do the same tonight...keep the game just close enough, but not too close. Nova takes this one by 15.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 02:20PM
Play On
Troy -3

Why: Everyone and their mothers are on Troy today and this was the only thing that has held me back...but I'm going to chance it. Troy is playing better ball than anyone in the SBC right now. They have momentum and they know they need to keep winning. Troy scores in flurries and they have what it takes to possible make a run in the big dance if they get there. I don't see Troy slipping up here, they know they have a break from play if they can get through this game and re-center/re-focus. I think Troy takes this one...but proceed with caution, everyone is betting Troy and it might seem like its too easy. I hope this isn't a Vegas screw job...GO TROJANS!
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 02:31PM
Play On
Indiana +10 (Hook)

Why: I'm going to give Indiana 1 more shot with me. I've bet them twice already and they have not delivered. Tonight, I like them again. Dumes is coming back and will provide the spark they couldn't seem to find against Illinois. This Wiscy team has improved as of late reeling off 4 straight, but let us not forget that three of those were in front of their home crowd. The lone road win came @ Penn State. Indiana will have a crowd behind them again tonight and they have been playing better lately. They were knocking on the door (to cover) against the Illini but their D was just too strong, and with no scoring threat, it made it extremely difficult. Dumes is back, and I'm looking for a much better game from IU. In fact, I think we may see an Indiana win here straight up. Really like their spot here. Wiscy has MSU next game so we might even see a "look ahead" team on the floor. Come on Indiana, don't let me down.





Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 04:11PM
Final Card

[18:00] Troy -3
[18:00] Charlotte +6.5
[19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5
[19:00] Western Kentucky +2
[20:00] UL-Lafayette +6
[20:00] Rutgers +18
[20:00] Indiana +10
[22:00] San Diego +13

Parlay On
1. [18:00] Charlotte +6.5
2. [19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5
3. [19:00] Western Kentucky +2
  • 1.00 Unit to win 6.00
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 06:50PM
Updated Lean: Washington +8.5
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 06:58PM
Jmon, I'll definitely take a look at these. If you string together some wins I might take a crack at it.
Wildcatter1 says:
02/19/09 07:17PM
BOL but only like ULM.  Denver, UALR tough at home.  could be tough 2 night.  Take Stanford -4  
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 07:35PM
Thanks man...I like STAN and WASH tonight...havent decided if I will play them.
kaponofor3 says:
02/19/09 07:47PM
Jettson -- Love your write-ups, really glad you have starting posting on the board. You are a welcome positive addition.
wvu91 says:
02/19/09 10:34PM
gl on rutgers as well tonight.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:00PM
Adding Play On
UCLA / Washington Under 153

Said I would not play totals, aggravated though on how some games turned out for me...taking it. I don't like either side, so I'm going to take the under and hope for the best.


Blah on tonight...
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:08PM
Final Card

---- [18:00] Charlotte +6.5
---- [19:00] Western Kentucky +2
---- [20:00] UL-Lafayette +6

---- [20:00] Rutgers +18
---- [18:00] Troy -3
---- [19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5
---- [20:00] Indiana +10


[22:00] San Diego +13
[22:00] UCLA UNDER 153



Parlay On
1. [$$$] Charlotte +6.5
2. [$$$] Western Kentucky +2
3. [XXX] UL-Monroe +11.5

  • 1.00 Unit to win 6.00


Large Play On
 ----  Rutgers +16.5
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 09:22PM


Troy...pathetic! Blah...

Nice hit on Mich over...going to watch for a few days.

Love Rutgers here..enough for my first large.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 09:33PM
Final Card

---- [18:00] Charlotte +6.5
---- [18:00] Troy -3

[19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5
[19:00] Western Kentucky +2
[20:00] UL-Lafayette +6
[20:00] Rutgers +18
[20:00] Indiana +10
[22:00] San Diego +13

Parlay On
1. [$$$] Charlotte +6.5
2. [19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5
3. [19:00] Western Kentucky +2
  • 1.00 Unit to win 6.00
Large Play On
1. [20:00] Rutgers +16.5
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 10:08PM
Final Card

---- [18:00] Charlotte +6.5
---- [19:00] Western Kentucky +2
---- [18:00] Troy -3
---- [19:00] UL-Monroe +11.5

[20:00] UL-Lafayette +6
[20:00] Rutgers +18
[20:00] Indiana +10
[22:00] San Diego +13



Parlay On
1. [$$$] Charlotte +6.5
2. [$$$] Western Kentucky +2
3. [XXX] UL-Monroe +11.5
  • 1.00 Unit to win 6.00


Large Play On
1. [20:00] Rutgers +16.5
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 08:03PM


Thanks bud, your write up on ucla/washing made me to a WASH lean!




Thanks for stopping in...keep up the good work on UCLA games.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 09:04PM
Adding Plays On
Rutgers +16.5 (LARGE)

First large play of the season...This is 5x what I normally bet.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:18PM
ULM tanking it with 10 minutes to go pissed me off, as did IU. Done betting them. At the time ULL was a border line cover and Rutgers was only up 15. LoL. It turned out ok I guess.

Good day Jmon, USC game will be close, should come down to fould shooting and you will be ok.
Jettson12 says:
02/19/09 11:37PM


Thanks bud.
stickman80733 says:
02/19/09 11:35PM
nice hit on Rutgers 
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Team: Alabama Crimson Tide
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