Jfox6546's Blog

Fox's **12/16 Picks and Analysis** NFL

By Jfox6546 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, December 14, 2012 06:39 PM   102 comments
NFL/NCAAF: +54,000 (+108u) 129-78-3 (63%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -2,670 (-5.34u) 54-54-5 (50%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD: 
 +1,530 (+3.06u) 15-10 (61%) ATS/Totals

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Weeks  11/13-12/10 (November) :  +28,610  83-53 ATS (61%)  

Week 12/11-12/17:  -1,600  3-4 ATS

Week totals will be updated once the next few days games are finished. I'm posting my plays early so that everyone can get the best available lines. As always your insight and opinion is welcomed. BOL!  


$2000 Buffalo Bills +6 **Max Bet**
This game is being played in Canada for those who don't know this. But it's still a "home" game for the Bills. As we all know the Seahawks aren't the best road team and have played in close games in every one of their road games this year. I even had a max bet on this Seattle team when they were underdogs at the Bears a few weeks ago. That was with the Seahawks being underdogs tho. This line is 9 points away from the Seahawks last road game, as they are now 6 points favs. Being 6 point favs is difficult for any team on the road, and the Bills have proven to be decent at "home" this year. The Bills have played good football for the last month or so as well. The Seahawks are 0-3 SUATS as road favorites this year and this line is inflated due to the blowout win the Hawks had over the cardinals this past week. 

The Bills biggest improvement since the beginning of the year as been their run defense. This is critical because the Seahawks are going to try and pound Marshawn Lynch as much as possible. In the last 6 weeks the Bills have held their opponents to A little over 3 yards per carry. That can keep you in most games. They've also held their opponents to 250 yards or less passing in the last 8 games, against teams like the Texans, Patriots, and the Colts. Their defense will keep them within the 6 in this game. 

Looking offensively at the Bills I think it actually helped this team with Fred Jackson getting hurt. CJ Spiller is a much more dynamic back, and is more of a threat in the passing game as well. The Seahawks run defense has should vulnerability at time this year, especially on the road. I look for Spiller to have another breakout performance here with Jackson being out for the year. 

This game will be a defensive battle IMO and very similar to the Bills game against the Rams last week. The Bills should have won that one but couldn't get a stop in the end. Turnovers and red zone efficiency will also help decide the winner as points will be at a premium.  I think this game will play out very similar to last weeks game for the Bills. And if the Bills can get a stop late in the game, they will knock the Hawks to 2-6 on the road this year. Now both teams have some injuries and questionable players for the game, but the Seahawks are thin at the Cb position , and browner is suspended. For this reason I think the Bills can have enough success in the passing game to get the upset. Bills win 20-16. 


102 comments
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Jfox6546 says:
12/14/12 06:39PM
$2000 New York Giants +1.5 **Max Bet**
If you havnt learned your lesson over the past few years with this Giants team, now is your chance. Road game in December is what they do best. The Falcons are the Texans of the NFC, and won't be able to keep up with the Giants in this game, just as the Patriots dominated the Texans. The Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 and looked horrid in a blow out loss to the Panthers last week. Matt Ryan Has been average the last month as well, mostly because the Falcons have been unable to run the ball effectively. In the Falcons last 5 games they have only rushed for more than 80 yards one time. This puts a lot of pressure Ryan and he hasnt been consistent enough. If the Falcons remain one dimensional against the Giants, Matt Ryan isnt going to see a lot of time with the Giants pass rush coming at him full speed. Atlantas defense is also struggling as of late, especially generating turnovers. Besides the Saints game the falcons only had 1 turnover in their other previous 6 games. 

Atlanta is very similar to the Texans in the sense that they have played a pretty easy overall schedule. They have only played 3 teams with a record over .500 and their hardest opponent was Denver, but they were lucky and got Peyton in week 2 before he started playing at a high level. The Falcons failed to cover as home favorites against the Raiders, Panthers, and Cardinals. They could've easily lost all three of those games as well. Now I'll give the Falcons credit for getting those W, because a win is a win, but the competition will be much tougher today. The Giants know how to win these games, and the Falcons havnt proven they can. The Falcons won't be able to overcome another early defect at home against Eli Manning. Giants win 31-23

$1000 Broncos -3 
The Broncos are one of the hottest team in the NFL and the Ravens are reeling after losing 2 straight. As we all know the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator this week in favor of Caldwell, who had never called plays at this level. The Broncos defense has also been playing at a very high level. The Ravens will look to get back to running the ball this week. IMO they won't have much success going against a Broncos team who's had extra rest and time to prepare for the Ravens. Plus the Broncos defense Has only let up more than 100 yards on the ground one time in the last 2 months. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS as road favs as well this year, so it's not like they can't play well in this one. The Ravens have a lot of question marks again on the defense and will have trouble stopping Manning. After not being efficient in the Red zone last week, Manning is sure to fix those problems here. IMO, this game comes down to Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco. The answer is clear in my mind. Broncos win 27-20. 


$1000 San Diego Chargers -3 
This one is prolly as surprising for you as the Jets last week, but I love this spot. I know I know it's the Chargers but they get a mediocre 4-9 Panthers team at home as only 3 point favs. The Panthers played their Super Bowl last week and got the W against Carolina. But let's not forget the panthers got dominated in their last road game against the worst team in the league, the Chiefs. The Panthers were 5 point road favs in that game and lost by 6. Teams traveling all the way across the country have a hard time historically as well. I don't see the Panthers getting up for this game. The Chargers are off one of their best wins of the year. I think they will want to come back home and end the season strong these last few weeks. I'll gladly lay just the fg with them at home. 

The Chargers have the run defense to be able to stop Cam Newton and company. The Chargers are only allowing 92 yards per game on the ground this year. Now the Chargers have been struggling with their running game this year but they should have a favorable match up this week, as Carolina has let up over 150 yards on the ground in their last 3 road games and almost 5 yards per carry. Look for the Chargers to end the season strong. Chargers win 30-20
fearthis says:
12/14/12 06:47PM

Thank you Jfox for the early writes-up. 

BOL

Jfox6546 says:
12/14/12 07:01PM

No problem man 
bpickin says:
12/14/12 08:38PM
Giants
Broncos and chargers
FB1 says:
12/14/12 09:19PM
JFox Love that Giants call im surprised your not on any same season second game Divisional revenge Dogs they are 10-1  over the last two weeks SU and ATS.Also injuries did not seem to even matter in some of these match ups the stats are still the same. what is your take on these Div Revenge games.

Tampa +3.5
Chicago +3
KC +3
Jfox6546 says:
12/14/12 09:26PM

Not willing to back either the saints or Bucs, both secondaries are horrible, both qb playing poorly over last couple weeks. took Bucs with the points in my pick em pool 

KC and Oakland are both horrible. I wouldn't touch KC. For me that game is Raiders or no play, and it's a no play cause I'm not putting my money on the Raiders. Took raiders in my pick em pool.

Chicago and Green bay is an interesting game. Some key players returning for the packers, but they prolly won't have as much of an impact after missing significant time. I was leaning Bears, but decided against it because the bears have struggles defensively the last month. Should be a very good game. I'll be pulling for bears for my pick em pool.
d2472c529a764f3490f9eadf5177350a says:
12/14/12 09:28PM
Bol to you fox. Appreciate how you take your time to write out your picks. Also, are these all your picks for this week? Or will you post them later. 
sully1 says:
12/14/12 09:30PM
Big Bills fan here Fox. I agree w/ you that Freddy J going down will HELP the Bills because Spiller is a game-breaking type RB. However, dont be fooled in to making this in to a "home-road"  analysis for either team. Nobody cares in the stands who wins, it's dead silent in that stadium, and the Bills players annually gripe about how it's not a home-field advantage. As much as Seattle isnt a great home team, they have an excellent defense and will ABUSE Ryan Fitzpatrick if they choose to send the house at him. Bills D is def. improving, but not enough to beat a team whose defense can score. I'm looking more at a Seattle 24-13 type W. Just my two sense...It's a no play for me as a Bills fan. Great job this year with your plays!
sully1 says:
12/14/12 09:33PM
Two cents, not sense ; )
Jfox6546 says:
12/14/12 09:42PM

If I have more, I'll post them, will prolly have play on the Sunday night game too. Bol! 
bullmoose says:
12/14/12 10:04PM
Nice analysis. Have the same feeling about "home" game for Buffalo. I think the crowd will be rooting for Seattle. Good luck.
salsaboy27 says:
12/14/12 10:43PM
Nice picks Fox! But the don't you think the Panthers will give Rivers and the Chargers a hard time? I think last week the steelers just had too many turn overs. Carolina is playing well and we all know Norv is gone...What is their motivation to play this game? If they win it'll be a fg but I think Newton been playing well and might give SD trouble through the air and ground. And I just can't trust that SD o-line or that D-line it's wishy washy. One thing though about this game is that Carolina had an emotional game last week against the falcons. If u can get the hook at 3.5 might want to get the middle. GL to your plays.
Thekathimself says:
12/15/12 01:32AM
y isnt Denver a MAX BET??
IAMSPOLI says:
12/15/12 01:51AM
Fox, I like all the picks.  BOL
BigUnit says:
12/15/12 02:11AM

Beware the Seahawks!

wesley7 says:
12/15/12 09:13AM

Thats what Im talking about!! The sunday night play!!.  Those are patriots colors by the way.  lol!!

Wizerguy says:
12/15/12 09:19AM
GL fox...nice season bud!   very articulate write-ups.. You're an asset to covers.
wesley7 says:
12/15/12 09:19AM
Great break down of games, of course.  Wow that giants bet is juicy,  was looking at it and then read your right up that brings up so many good points to make it look stellar.  Watchout for my Seahawks!  Pete Carrol has them going,  they are sneaky good,  cant argue with anything you say in your write up by any means but i might need to stay away cause of my emotional attachment to my team lol. But i can understand the max bet here.  I havent lost a single max bet when tailing you so im sure ill have to bite the bullet and go for the money..  Great work bro!!
arubadk says:
12/15/12 01:28PM
 what a great lookin card ! thank you as always!!!   dk
FadeOnly says:
12/15/12 02:05PM
StoneColdNinja says:
12/15/12 03:04PM
BOL JFox , you must be in a lot of pick'em pools lol. Hope you win all of them
bigkaptain says:
12/15/12 04:29PM
love the gmen and chargers. gl fox
sdsufred7 says:
12/15/12 05:19PM
like ur  analysis and picks!
TRAIN69 says:
12/15/12 05:23PM
Here ya go Fox:

Rams ML/Under 39, Bills ML, Zona ML, Bears ML parlay 82-1



Just an early xmas gift for ya
TRAIN69 says:
12/15/12 06:39PM


Dont wanna back SF on the road vs Brady....tough task imo


Like KC and the Jets to both win ugly as well.
Area51 says:
12/15/12 06:59PM
Fox what is the lowest you like Buf? Now at 4.5
emcacco says:
12/15/12 07:12PM

looks good  prob against on car. but bol also like niners to cover

iBETnWIN says:
12/15/12 07:49PM
BOL Fox

Looks like a strong card.
Lb_of_flesh says:
12/15/12 07:54PM
Love the GMen and Bills this week.  Great analysis
FinesFan says:
12/15/12 08:27PM
Hey Fox, it may sounds like a noobie question to you, but i would like to know your thinking here. 

If you like so much the Giants against the Falcons, and predict them to win by 8 pts, why are you betting G-man +1.5 instead of Money-line or ever a gutsy G-man -2.5 at +130 or something like that ?

Thanks in advance G
TheRoarrr says:
12/15/12 08:28PM
You seem to know your s hit man, what do you think of Detroit Arizona game.
zuzu213 says:
12/15/12 09:34PM

BOL

TheRoarrr says:
12/15/12 09:37PM

That's the way I'm going Lions -5.5 & & Lions total 24.5. Even though its away its in doors and with the Lions primary goal to get Megatron to beat JR record now they're going be airing it out alot, not that they don't already.
ryan2261 says:
12/15/12 09:56PM
thanks fox your the man
Jfox6546 says:
12/15/12 11:39PM
 Thx guys
TRAIN69 says:
12/15/12 11:43PM
We gotta loosen you up!! Gimme a 5 or 6 team parlay that has at least 3 dog MLs



Jfox6546 says:
12/15/12 11:55PM
NFL/NCAAF: +53,450 (+106.9u) 129-79-3 (62%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -3,820 (-7.64u) 57-59-5 (49%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD:  +1,000 (+2.0u) 15-11 (58%) ATS/Totals

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Weeks  11/13-12/10 (November) :  +28,610  83-53 ATS (61%)  

Week 12/11-12/17:  -3,850 6-11 ATS

Got a little back today after a really bad Thursday and Friday. Big day on Sunday should put us back to another winning week guys. Cya in the morning, 


kRaZeEpLaYa says:
12/15/12 11:59PM

I'm on board with all your plays...GL this week and congrats on a good run for the season!

DanTos8715 says:
12/16/12 12:03AM
Love Denver this week, and Baltimore is even my team.  Too many injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  Up to 6 starters may be out.  Plus the offensive coach change, like you said.  Extra rest for Denver.  I see Denver winning that game by 7.  27-20.

I really like the Raiders.  I know, it sounds filthy.  At home of course, and no D Bowe.  As long as Charles doesn't go ape crap, then I think they win.  I bought em down to -2.5

best of luck
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 12:04AM

Giants ML
Bills ML
Bucs ML
Vikings ML
Jags ML

Not playing this but if it's hits I'll be pissed lol 

Just for fun. 

Your turn. All have to be dog ML. 5 or more 
kRaZeEpLaYa says:
12/16/12 12:05AM

I'll be there as well and having been to the Bills game in Toronto in the past the noise level is more like a baseball game as they switch over innings. Was in Buff last week watching them play flag football in the final 2 minutes and was painful to watch...hoping for a better performance this week.

Still think they can cover and keep it close...Bills +5 for me

 

Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 12:06AM

Raiders should win, I just can't bet them because they are my team, and it would piss me off twice as much if I back them. I like fading them that way if I lose my bet at least my team gets the W, lol 

Not touching that game tho, I did take raiders in my weekly pick em tho. Just cause they better not lose to the chiefs at home. 
sdking21 says:
12/16/12 01:54AM
hey jfox, im new to the forums, and stumbled upon your thread, sweet writeups, and record.

gl this week, any thoughts on gb this week? is chi's def as bad as it was last week without urlacher, or was that just because it was the 1st week without him? line looks odd especially what both teams did last week. also gb has won the last 5meetings.
davopnz says:
12/16/12 02:01AM
Arizona and Chicago are the best plays on the bored this week
sdking21 says:
12/16/12 02:37AM
didn't see you posted earlier about GB/CHI game, probably going to pass on this though would lean gb. should be a good 1, i believe chi will welcome that run game that GB is trying to feature and that may mess up GB's rythym as far as sustaining drives. weird line and relying on cutler and that oline may be too much if the bears def without urlacher is still having a tough time without him. believe there are far better games on the board than this 1 i would think. too many unknowns in this 1. 
captainronrico says:
12/16/12 02:53AM

I CONCURR!!!!

Thank You!

suckin hind tit this year, but coming back last 2 weeks, hard to keep up 5,000 miles from no where! Nuku Hiva, Marquesas, French Polynesia. Truly appreciate your due diligence and the time to share it here!  

Get the 


I don't often drink beer, but when I do, I piss in the closet...




EatWeights says:
12/16/12 03:40AM
manutdfctts9899 says:
12/16/12 05:20AM
BOL tomorrow guys and foxy!!
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 10:28AM
Bol guys! And thx as always 
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 10:50AM

During the late games most likely. You're really anxious on that one aren't you bro lol. 
d2472c529a764f3490f9eadf5177350a says:
12/16/12 11:00AM
Fox, does it concern you  that giants D is going to be missing CB prince and their starting safety?
Anyways still siding with the G men!!! Bol
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 11:07AM

Giants are one of the best coached teams, and just like the patriots do, I expect that whoever plays will be well coached and be able to do their job well enough.

Plus it's not like prince or Phillips are huge playmakers. They are solid because they are well coached and do their jobs. The players that step into their place should be able to play well too. 
Paddy-Baboon says:
12/16/12 11:40AM

green bay all the way.... bears D is messed up and i think jennings gets loose today.  24-13  green bay

 

Paddy-Baboon says:
12/16/12 11:45AM
here is a lil 3tp  nba    hou lal port
arubadk says:
12/16/12 11:52AM
fellas bear  def  still solid they only gave up 7pts vs minn other were pik 6 .that being said bears win an cover only when def scores thats why either is tough IMO . GREAT FORUM everyone helpin  NO BS   for no brainer follow FOX awfully good   dk
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 12:27PM
Adding a play

$500 Washington Redksins +4
Can't pass up a Reskins team that can run the ball and have been better on defense the last few weeks. The Browns strength is running the ball and the Redskins defense is decent at stopping teams on the ground. Mike Shannahan will give Cousins a very simple gameplan and use a lot of play action and easy reads. Plus you never know, RG3 could come play, the Redskins may be being sneaky in this one. The Browns arent explosive on offense and this will a competitive game. Redskins will keep it close. Redskins win 24-23
monkeymark5 says:
12/16/12 12:28PM
pigskinpicker says:
12/16/12 12:31PM

RG 3 is inactive.... guess the knee is worse than thought....
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 12:34PM
Pigskins, that's ok. They will be pk against this browns team. Cousins will play well here. 
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 12:46PM
T- minus 15 minutes, again I've added a play guys, post # 67.

Skins +4
pigskinpicker says:
12/16/12 12:47PM
winds gusting over 20 mph in cleveland and looks to be kind of windy most of the game. i think that helps redskins and alfred morris. weeden may rely more on richardson... i am thinking under 40 may also be a play.
Ushpa says:
12/16/12 01:03PM
Love your writeups...BOL!
TheRoarrr says:
12/16/12 01:17PM
Liked your Denver pick the most so put some down on them... 
AAY says:
12/16/12 01:19PM

Good Luck

JayCast0719 says:
12/16/12 03:28PM
we might be up to something here..... lol
arubadk says:
12/16/12 03:37PM
shoot justchecked back in missed  wash pk
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 03:40PM
Yea 2-1 early game. Gonna lose a small amount tho because Giants completely blew it today. On to the late games. Still good shot to come out ahead today, and a play for SNF posted shortly
eturkalu says:
12/16/12 03:55PM

are you leaning NE or SF??

Jessec87x says:
12/16/12 04:03PM
What was your 3rd game?
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 04:17PM

Post #67
FrostGiven says:
12/16/12 04:22PM
I think panthers win outright, but could be wrong.  They are much better than their record leads one to believe.  I also think the Bills get blown out of the water.  Other than that I like em all.  I was on Giants as well =/
petertjm says:
12/16/12 04:30PM
wowowowo   the bufalo game is starting like the giant game
mastermind604 says:
12/16/12 05:11PM
i knew this buffalo was dagerous . 
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 05:13PM
The bad week continues, tail cautiously folks.


$2000 Patriots ML -200 (2000 to win 1000) 
Patriots have won 21 straight at home in December. Im willing to back that trend at only -200. Patriots win 26-20

$500 Patriots -4 

JayCast0719 says:
12/16/12 05:48PM
neutral field? 
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 06:00PM

Yea you "knew" 

Everyone knows after the game is over, lol
Jessec87x says:
12/16/12 06:11PM
Of course...I have a friend like that. He can pick every game and tells me all the winners an laughs when I don't listen. Of course he won't bet 1$. It's easy when there's no money involved. You just pick your Fav team. If it was only that easy
Warlord says:
12/16/12 06:22PM

sorry for you,take ne tonight and comeback lol

 

sciroccin says:
12/16/12 06:36PM
Rough day, keep your head up.  It'll turn around.
tboon says:
12/16/12 06:41PM

In my opinion, Bills was the right play going in....doesn't always work out as we can see...

Best of luck

Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 06:50PM

Thx guys, I'm glad some people actually realize its impossible to win every week. This is only the 3rd losing week I'll have this year, I'll take that every time. 

Hopefully pats can get me some back tonight. They should roll again.

Bol everyone! 
jredmond says:
12/16/12 06:52PM

Don't want to go against you jfox but don't want to go against colin cowerd when it could be his tie breaker game.  not sure what to do.  anyway gl fox.

TRAIN69 says:
12/16/12 07:17PM


Toughest thing to learn as a gambler is how to shake off losses or a bad streak. Its 100% certain it will happen if you bet long enough. Not a problem. Just keep doin what you're doin and laugh at the guys that will (undoubtedly) come in your thread after a bad day and say how stupid you are for taking a team after the game is over......

fox
TheRoarrr says:
12/16/12 07:38PM
After getting Detroit seroiusly wrong I erased my profits of the early games of which I all hit on, Patroits it is tonight...
mastermind604 says:
12/16/12 07:56PM
Hate to see you on the other side again. 
NE just looks too obvious to me . . . obvious ones usually fail. 
Enjoy the game, GL.
ccbulldog says:
12/16/12 08:02PM
Boy has your bright star been burning dim this week. However, because you have been so good for several weeks before, I will still give you a second chance next week. Now lets get our money back next week. 
Jfox6546 says:
12/16/12 08:05PM


I'll bounce back, no worries 
Gabbo says:
12/16/12 08:12PM
Ha, it happens. I went 0-5 on games today, but 9-1 on just 2nd half bets. Sometimes it goes wrong.
Vacaney says:
12/16/12 08:12PM
Bills got me too. Can't win every games.

On Pats with you sir .. Let's do it Mr. Jfox

thomaschau says:
12/16/12 08:41PM
Good 4 u
thomaschau says:
12/16/12 08:44PM
I definitively believe you can. Thnx for your hard works. Keep it up! BOL 
manutdfctts9899 says:
12/16/12 08:51PM
keep up the gd work foxy!! lets do well 
duongtommy says:
12/16/12 08:52PM
don't you thing the Pad won score more then 10 point ?
2001bmw says:
12/17/12 12:17AM
Tough week fox
There is still light at the end of the tunnel Study hard for ONE BIG FINAL play tomorrow night.  Big winner MNF.

If we are gonna go down, we will go down swinging!!
Distraction says:
12/17/12 01:01AM
Jfox you are amazing all year. Keep it up! You always have solid perspective with your game analysis. You are one of few post I read and been wagering for years. Thanks to u I'm having best nfl year in a decade. Thanks for taking the time.

Mnf, let's get it!
Benson13 says:
12/17/12 01:03AM
Tough Week Fox, dont worry its only ur 3rd losing week your not a physic, however your a very solid capper though. Keep ur head up bro lets get back on the winning track. BOL FOX
atovar01 says:
12/17/12 04:13AM
Great work FOX, don't listen to these clowns. Would sure like to see them start capping games!!!! Keep it up bounce back big with a pick for Monday night. 
Area51 says:
12/17/12 08:30AM
Fox your a good capper.  This happens to everyone.  Rub some dirt on it and move on.  That is the best thing to do whit a bad day.

Need your thoughts on MNF.

CanadaCup says:
12/17/12 08:48AM

Chin up Fox you'll rebound back to winners 

Vituperate says:
12/17/12 09:32AM
Probably the biggest profit weekend for the books this year...many blowouts...teasers lose everywhere...NE at a pk and NYG at +7.5 abounded.

Fox is a long term winner and will bounce back without question.

Gl Fox and all.
arubadk says:
12/17/12 12:20PM
no  worries fox keep hittin singles and we ll score a lot of runs !!!  dk
Jfox6546 says:
12/17/12 12:42PM
Thx everyone for the support. Let's bounce back on MNF, pick is up. 
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