JoeFan's Blog

**SOUTH FLORIDA AT RUTGERS WRITEUP & PICK**

By JoeFan | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, November 12, 2009 11:59 AM   25 comments

South Florida comes into this game off a big win against West Vagina. That win was so big for this program!! It proved to the nation and to themselves that they are for real and they can win big football games. What allowed them to win that game was the outstanding play of QB BJ Daniels. In the first couple games Daniels played in, USF coaches didnt allow the Fresman play the way he wanted to. Well against the Neers the USF coaches took the training wheels off of Mr Daniels and it payed off big time!! Both with his arm and legs Daniels sliced and diced an above average WVU defense. He had 117 yards on the ground, 232 yds passing and 3TD's! I honestly havent seen a dual threat QB this dominant since Michael Vick AKA "Ron Mexico". Please dont underrate this guy he is the real deal and maybe the best freshman QB in the country. On defense we all know what USF is capable of. When the offense is playing well these guys are dominant behind Man Children DE's Selvie, Pierre Paul and LB Kion Wilson. Alot of people I'm sure question this defense after getting killed by Pitt and Cincinatti but against those teams the USF offense couldnt muster any production. Now with Daniels allowed to play the way he wants to, they are able to keep their defense off the field and rested enough to make big plays.  When USF's offense hums so does their defense. The Bulls are gonna play tonight without WR Carlton Mitchell however USF is very deep at the position with Love, Bogan and Hester.

Now Rutgers comes into the game on a high they are 6-2 and have won their last 2 one of em away against a very tough Uconn team. They have been doing just enough to get the job done behind a stingy and opportunistic defense. The Knights rank #1 in the nation in turnover margin and basically that stat alone has won them football games. Freshman QB Tom Savage has been playing mistake free football lately and has made big throws when called upon. The big play ability of WR Tim Brown is really the main reason Rutgers has had any production on offense. Other than him there really isnt anyone that can make a big play. On defense the Knights are led by an outstanding LB crew led by Ryan Dimperio. Rutgers comes into the game ranking 27th on defense and like I said these guys create turnovers which has led them to a 6-2 record.

Tonight the way I see this game is like this. Defensively South Florida should be able to shut down this stagnant Rutgers offense. These guys just dont have enough star talent right now to beat a very good defense like South Florida. USF lost games against Pitt and Cincy but both those teams have Big Star talent. Rutgers quite simply does not. On the other side of the ball I really think the Knights are gonna have a hard time stopping Daniels. This kid looks super confident now that the coaches have given him full control to make plays and I think there is no way the Knights can stop him. He is too quick and too accurate making throws on the run. Also this supposedly solid Rutgers defense against good football teams have been exposed greatly. Last week against UCONN they gave up almost 500 yards of offense, against Cincy they gave up almost 600 and against Pitt almost 400. Also everyone knows the Knights were very lucky to sneak away with a win against UCONN last week. Another factor is the fact that this is a revenge game for the Bulls. Their team feels that the Knights ran up the score on them last year and tonight they want to kill this team. Also for most of the Bulls players they have never beat Rutgers and have never won on Thursday night and I'm sure they want to break that trend. All this should be enough for the Bulls and I fully expect this team to keep on chugging and to get a big win tonight in Jersey!!

SOUTH FLORIDA +3 (HOOK)

25 comments
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buckeye34 says:
11/12/09 12:03PM
RandyC726 says:
11/12/09 12:11PM

Nice writeup, I totally agree. .

 

D-Town says:
11/12/09 12:22PM
Good luck Joe. 
schust06 says:
11/12/09 12:28PM
going with the over in this one
peanutt612 says:
11/12/09 12:29PM
Johnnynumbers says:
11/12/09 12:31PM
GL Joe.  Nice writeup
davidn4567 says:
11/12/09 12:58PM
gl joe
Monkeybongos says:
11/12/09 01:18PM
Bingo.  The only way I see you getting tripped up is from turnovers by a young QB on the road.  If Rutgers continues their favorable TO margin tonite they should win.  Otherwise you're on the money w your write-up, and will likely be in the money after the game...
Northsider says:
11/12/09 01:30PM

My thoughts exactly--

GL my good man

 

 

kickinA says:
11/12/09 01:47PM

Good stuff Joe.

Will consider the play. I like the match up favoring the Bull defense coming after Savage.

CalBear says:
11/12/09 01:50PM
On the same side....I was surprised by the line movement....hope it keeps going up....SoFla wins this game straigt up.  GL Joe
K4ngur13 says:
11/12/09 02:00PM
Good Luck.

Wizerguy says:
11/12/09 02:01PM
Very nice write-up . You're very knowledgeable on this matchup. I personally like SFL +3 in this game myself,  just haven't had the time to really look into it like I wanted to,so thanks for the info
Maydaymalone says:
11/12/09 02:26PM
bracks says:
11/12/09 02:28PM

See the same type of game.

Don't know about he outcome though

spovegas says:
11/12/09 03:25PM
Joe,

I've been following some very solid college Football wagering systems:  One of them is the "Running Dog"  last week there were 2 of them. Purdue +3 and Nebraska +4, the week before La Tech +2 and Oregon +3....so this week South Florida +2 fits the system.
  1. STRONGER SAGARIN and SOS and dog or light favorite ... Potential play is: PLAY ON
  2. BETTER DEFENSE with tougher SOS as a dog ... Potential play is: PLAY ON
  3. VERY GOOD DEFENSE, comparable or better SOS and a dog ... Potential play is: PLAY ON
  4. Running Dog (strict definition) ... Potential play is: PLAY ON
  5. Team has B- RUSHING DEFENSE vs. opponent with C RUSHING OFFENSE
  6. Team has B- PASSING DEFENSE vs. opponent with C PASSING OFFENSE
  7. Possible LINE VALUE relative to last season's meeting

johnobvious says:
11/12/09 03:30PM
No one seems worried about the line swinging wildly to Rutgers here?  No one thinks someone is in the know here?  My conspiracy theory little man says RUTGERS.
bracks says:
11/12/09 03:39PM

spo vegas- Is that just numbers? Cause if not, I'm sorry, I don't think SF is a better defense. I also don't think SF rush D is better than the RU running game.

 again, understand if its just where they are ranked, but eye test says different to me. And last yr line, was SF as a small fav @ H, now a small dog on road.

gkastanza says:
11/12/09 03:41PM
Nice write up Joe  

I agree with you on the South Florida pick, it opened at at pickem and now has gone to Rutgers -2.5    I'll take the Bulls buying the hook at +3

By the way JoeFan,  SMOKE EM IF YA GOT EM  

GL2U  
Jordan032503 says:
11/12/09 03:47PM
GL...great write up..
spovegas says:
11/12/09 04:06PM


Bracks,  yes numbers, YPP allowed vs YPP gained...head to head comparison. Sometime stats lie we'll see tonight....I have been following the "running dog" situation more than anything....as it's 4-0 in the past 2 weeks.  other qualifiers this week are Syracuse +7,  Wyoming +5 and East Carolina +6
HotRoute says:
11/12/09 04:11PM
kpnguyen says:
11/12/09 05:03PM
goodluck on SF im on Rutg i got it by hot pick
JTlightsout says:
11/12/09 06:54PM

GL Joe again.  Last night we couldnt get it done with Toledo.

 

I was leaning Rutgers.  For a simple reason,  I have never witnessed a CFB teams work ethic as fierce and dedicated than Rutgers.  These coaches do a great job motivating these kids and they have great kids that work there asses off in training, weight room, practice and off field.

 

Not sure what I will do with this game yet.

DOVJAK says:
11/12/09 07:02PM
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