Ref for tonight's Habs-Bruins game

Lot's of talk in the hockey world about tonight's Habs-Bruins game in Boston where the Broons are favored at -175 and the total is posted at 5.

Most remember the fireworks from the last time they met when Zdeno Chara 'blowed up' Max Pacioretty with a hit into the glass partition at the Bell Center, sparking tears and prayer circle protests from throngs of Hab Nation.

The league is reportedly going to keep a tight lid on tonight's rematch, as is often the case in situations where a game has the potential to get ugly.

Reports are that two veteran officials will do the game as a result, one of them being Dan O'Halloran. This is news because, unlike the NBA, the NHL doesn't release its officials assignments on game day.

O'Halloran is an 'over' official who sees an average of 6.18 goals per game in games he's officiated this season - the second highest number in the league among officials who have reffed more than one game this year. The over/under has a record of 36-29 in his games. 

Cool 1st half trend for NCAA tourney

There’s a profitable first-half trend from yesterday’s action of March Madness that carries over from last year. First half over/unders went 10-4-2 yesterday, earning a nice payday for those who made this wager on every matchup.

It’s a trend worth noting, not only for the cash, but also because the over/under went just 8-7-1 overall yesterday, with the lone push coming in the Richmond-Vandy game (135).

This trend carries over from 2010 and a few of us in the office continued to follow it this year to see where it would lead. To the best of our memories, only five games played under in the first half last year through the first two days, though don’t shoot me if I’m wrong by a couple of games.

Still, that was a massive profit last year and shaping up to be a nice one this year.

All trends must come to an end but worth throwing out there for your consideration as you make your wagers today. 

Habs, Pacioretty can't play victim routine

I haven’t written a blog in a while, but the Zdeno Chara hit on Max Pacioretty has pulled me out of blogger retirement.

In case you missed it, Chara drove Pacioretty into the boards where the glass partition begins near the benches at the Bell Centre near the end of the second period Wednesday night.  Pacioretty was bloodied, knocked out cold and taken off on a stretcher to hospital.

It’s not so much the hit itself that’s bothering me – though it wasn’t pretty - rather the way it’s being covered.

Chara should be suspended for life, is pretty much the gist outside of Boston. One Montreal Gazette writer, Dave Stubbs, ridiculously compared the incident to the death of Georgian luger Nodar Kumaritashvili at last year’s Olympics and said any “reasonable fan” should have been “repulsed… no matter their allegiance.”  

Count me among the unreasonable, I guess.

I don’t like seeing gore out there, but when you check the stories on the major mainstream outlets like TSN, ESPN and others and you’ll see no mention of what Chara’s hit was really about: January 8.

What happened that night in front of a national TV audience on Hockey Ni... [More]

NHL's 'new rule' will just create more issues

NHL general managers are meeting in Florida this week for three days to discuss, among other things, head shots in hockey and the serious injuries that follow. 

This hot button issue has sparked a ton of discussion in the NHL this year because of an apparent increase in head injuries following hits, most recently to Marc Savard of the Boston Bruins when he got demolished by Matt Cooke on Sunday.

It’s a tough topic because some of these checks are ones we previously would have deemed as clean.

Elbows in. No charging. Player doesn’t leave his feet.

But still, players are getting it too hard in the bucket and we all know by now that concussions can mess a guy up. 

Everyone seemed to agree that a clearer definition of the rules was in order heading into the GM meetings. So what did they vote to pass unanimously today? 

A rule that says the referee can assess either a minor penalty or a major penalty for hits they deem were targeted to the head.

What does that mean?

And don’t we already have this rule in place?

Officials have the power to call a major or match penalty any time they feel a player intentionally tries to injure another. Wouldn’t that qualify?

Instead of clearing things up, the NHL is heading (pun intended) into a whole new grey area that’s going to cause them a mountain of, err, headaches. 

It’s tough to distinguish what is an intentional hit to the head and what is... [More]

Wiz heading for the All-Star break early

Betting the NBA during the week leading up to the All-Star break is gambling at its riskiest. You really don’t have any clue which teams are going to check out a few days early and leave your money to blow away in the wind.

 

I usually avoid it like a public urinal. But like a public urinal, sometimes you just have to.

 

Take tonight. The Wiz opened as 8.5-point dogs on the road at Betjamaica against the Bobbies and I just can’t see any reason why they would give a flying bullet who wins this game.

 

They are coming off a relaxing 3-day vacation in sunny Orlando because they were storm-stayed over the weekend due to the blizzard in Washington. Their Sunday game in D.C. against the Hawks was rescheduled for March 11.

 

(Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Penguins managed to make it to D.C. for a 1 p.m. Sunday game despite playing in Montreal the night before.  The Pens got in at 2 a.m. and took a 5-hour bus ride after flying to Newark. )

 

[More]

Don't blame Favre for Vikings loss

Joe Buck and Troy Aikman ripped Brett Favre like a coupon from a newspaper last night after he threw his closing-seconds interception to Tracy Porter on third-and-15 from New Orleans’ 38-yard line.

 

ESPN.com called it a ‘gruesome interception’ and more than likely you heard worse around your water cooler today.

 

But the 31-28 Vikings loss can’t be blamed on Favre.  And if you took the four points at BetJamaica, you aren’t blaming anyone at all.

 

I know what you’re thinking: another Brett Favre lover. You would be thinking wrong. I'm not a hater either, though I have grown tired of the retirement parties the last couple of seasons.

 

But if you’re looking for somewhere to point the finger, Favre shouldn’t be at the top of your list. He threw for 310 yards, came through on a lot of key t... [More]

Teddy Covers gets some love from ESPN's Sports Guy

Just an FYI – Covers Expert Teddy ‘Covers’ Sevransky got a nice shout-out yesterday on Bill Simmons’ podcast, the BS Report. You can check it out here and it comes around the 31:50 mark of the podcast.  

I’m sure most of you know Simmons as The Sports Guy on ESPN.com and Teddy’s name came up during Monday’s discussion with Chad Millman. Millman is ESPN’s gambling writer if you’re not familiar and he wrote a book about the Las Vegas sports gambling scene called ‘The Odds’.

Anyway, it’s a good discussion about how the wise guys are looking for a decent middle opportunity with this week’s Jets-Colts game.  The line currently sits at Indy -7.5 at Betjamaica and most other betting shops.

Expect fights, power plays and goals tonight in Toronto

Hopefully the staff at the Air Canada Center has the doors to the penalty boxes well oiled tonight because they’re going to get some use.

The Flyers visit Toronto as -135 faves (BetJamaica) and the Leafs are calling up their top goon, Jay Rosehill, from the minors for the bout, err, game.

There is some bad blood still boiling from when these two clubs met Jan. 6 when Philly’s resident psycho, Dan Carcillo, scored a goal and taunted the Leafs’ bench by skating by and giving mock high fives. (Pretty clever, I thought.) Later he gave the throat slashing gesture to Toronto assistant coach Keith Acton for which he was fined the NHL-maximum of $2,500.

There were 80 minutes in penalties handed out in that affair and the Flyers went 3-for-6 on the power play. They won 6-2 and the eight goals jumped the over/under by two.

Not surprisingly, the total is set at 6 goals again Thursday with -130 juice on the over. I’m taking the over despite the chalk because I’m expecting more penalties and Philly’s power play happens to be on fire right now. Both teams have serious goaltending issues too.

It’s also worth noting that the ‘over’ is 6-2 in games in which Carcillo has at least five minutes in penalties this season. In no small way, that’s because he has a knack for getting under the skin of the other ... [More]

Banning gambling on NBA teams makes no sense

Leave it to the Zenmaster to be the only one who seemingly has some sense in the NBA amidst the Gilbert Arenas gambling fiasco.

While others are either banning gambling on their teams or remaining silent on the subject, Lakers coach Phil Jackson said over the weekend that he won’t support a ban on his team simply for PR reasons.

 “What are these players going to do when they get back to their hotels, when they are in their own space, even their houses?” Jackson said to reporters on Friday. “They’re going to go their rooms and gamble. I think maybe on the planes would be a better spot for that because it could be monitored. It hasn’t been a problem.

 

“We have guys that play, four or five guys that play. They seem to have a wonderful time. It seems to be a great release for them.” 

 

What a concept: treat players like adults.

 

I realize that can be difficult at times, what with some of them carrying guns and Tweeting comments you’d expect f... [More]

Expect Tenny-Florida line to come back down

I wrote about the revenge factor in my Four-play column today but I wanted to expand on the Tennessee-Florida game because spreads like this are so rare in the SEC.

 Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, couldn’t remember a spread off-hand that was this big recently in the conference. (As of Friday night, it was at 29.5 at Pinnacle.)

 “The last time an SEC team laid more than four TDs that I found was all involving Miss State,” Kornegay said. “In 2006 Miss St  was +33 at LSU (LSU 48-17), 2005 Miss State was +28 at Florida (FLA 35-9), and 2004 Miss State was like +31 at LSU (LSU 51-0).”

 The record of 2-1 ATS doesn’t exactly suggest a lock here Saturday, but you get the point. This spread has gotten large.

 Kornegay said the Hilton initially had Saturday’s game at 23 points and it’... [More]

Bogus handshake policy has to go before more get hurt

I am pissed.
  Not so much because my college fantasy team has gone down the crapper like a dead gold fish, but it’s the reason why that’s making me angry.
So far I’ve lost starting running back Anthony Dixon (suspended after DUI arrest), Heisman winner Sam Bradford (shoulder injury) and my other starting running back, LeGarrette Blount (suspended for season).
  It’s the suspension to Blount that is really killing me and I only partially blame Blount. In case you were a college football fan who was just rescued from being lost in the woods, Blount is suspended for the year after he “sucker punched” Boise State’s Byron Hout after the Broncos beat the Ducks 18-9 as 3.5-point favorites (Betjamaica.com) last Thursday.
Now, the punch wasn’t very bright. Neither was the fact Blount tried to fight with fans in Boise after that. But he definitely didn’t deserve to have his football career ruined by being suspended for the season. What’s worse is that none of this would have ever happened if it wasn’t for the new handshake initiative from the American Football Coaches Association.
  The association wants players to shake hands before college games this year in an effort to show sportsmanship.
It’s garbage. And in this case, it might have helped contribute to Blount’s run-in with Hout.... [More]

Many reasons to like the under in Bombers games

Here’s an angle for Silly Ball bettors: take a hard look at betting the under in Winnipeg Blue Bombers games for the next little bit.

That might be a bit obvious, considering they just signed unemployed QB Michael Bishop in a desperate effort to kick start the offense. But let’s see how oddsmakers react this week.

The over/under is 1-3 in Bombers games so far this season and oddsmakers at Pinnaclesports.com have posted all three of their totals between 50 and 53.5 points. It’s a little surprising we haven’t seen a bigger adjustment considering their starting quarterbacks just threw for a total of 66 yards in a 19-5 loss to the Toronto Argos and Stefan Lefors has the worst completion percentage in the CFL (46 percent).

What you might not have read about is that head coach Mike Kelly told the Winnipeg Free Press last week that he was going to simplify his offense because he had overestimated his talent at the beginning of the season. And that’s likely to continue with yet another quarterback stepping in to take over this week.

Another reason to like the under is the defense has been playing well considering the guys on the defensive unit ca... [More]

The NL advantage during interleague play

I took the Jays/Phillies game to go under 9 runs Tuesday night thinking that Cole Hamels was on the mound and the Jays have been hitting like they’ve traded their bats for purses lately.   I also liked the fact that Ricky Romero was being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here as a young arm that has been a pleasant surprise for the Bee-Jays as their rotation continues to crumble to injuries.

But there was another factor I failed to consider that also helped my bet. His name is Ricky Romero.  

Not the guy on the mound. The guy at the plate.

Watching him bat with runners on the corners in the fourth inning with one out, the Jays up 2-1, was like watching a little kid trying to jump off the diving board for the first time.

He was lining up to bunt for so long before Hamels delivered that I can’t believe the Phillies’ southpaw didn’t crack up laughing and call for time. 

On his second strike, he sort of whiffed on a bunt that made his bat look like he was holding a piece of road kill.

“That was new,” said the Rogers Sportsnet color guy. (I think it was Pat Tabler doing the game.)

Romero went down on strikes after following up that embarrassment with the ugliest hack I’ve seen all season. Surely this guy has had to hit at some point in his life on his way to the majors... [More]

Game 7 outlook and prop picks

If I hear “this is the game you always dream about when you’re playing street hockey as a kid” one more time, I’m going to get sick all over myself.

That’s the real problem with a two-day layoff in the NHL finals – we have to listen to the same clichés a million times over for a whole extra day. Hockey players are the nicest guys in sports, but they are also the worst interview.

Thankfully, it will come to an end tonight at 8 p.m. when Game 7 goes down at the Joe.

Who will win? The Wings should, but I probably won’t be betting on them for Game 7. I took them at 3-1 to win the Cup at Betjamaica.com before the playoffs began and with that on the line, I don’t have much incentive to lay the -195 Friday night.

I am thinking about hedging with the Pens at +165 but then I’d go and suck all the drama out of the thing. It’s not very often your futures wager comes down to one game when it comes to betting H-ball so I might as well ride it out.

Here are a few other wagers I am looking at for Game 7:

Under 5.5 – Unless the goalies forget their pads, this one is going under. And grab it now because the juice is going up. Both goalies were sensational in Game 6, wh... [More]

Donaghy gets a beat down in prison

Looking for a tennis fix - in more ways than one

The end of May is almost here, which means a sight that has become as common as the blooming flowers has arrived: Rafa Nadal is favored to win Roland Garros. And -350 (BetJamaica.com) isn’t a terrible price when it comes to playing on Nadal in Paris.

But more on that in a day or two when I break down the men’s and women’s sides for you.

Another topic that seems just as common when it comes to discussing professional tennis these days is match fixing. The Wall Street Journal is the latest to write about it as tennis gets set to slide back onto the American sports radar with the French Open and Wimbledon near.

The story is worth a read because it’s the first time (that I’ve seen anyway) that a gambler is being so open and candid about attempting to fix a match on the WTA.

This Russian bettor, who claims to make his living from betting women’s tennis, says he was nervous to approach a player about fixing a match. But he was seemingly acting on his own and you have to wonder about the guys who aren’t nervous about approaching players about this sort of thing. I’m guessing those guys don’t ask so nicely.

... [More]

NBA officials for Lakers-Rockets Game 6

Random betting observations

Ronaldo scored. Disgusting. And I’m even on Manchester United.

 

There are few douches in sport that are so big they make you slightly regret betting on them for a winning wager and Ranaldo is one of them.  But I couldn’t resist Man U at -135 (Betjamaica.com) on the moneyline over Arsenal in the second leg of their Champions League semifinal.

 

The game is far from over, but I can’t see worse than a Man U draw here.

 

A few other recent random observations…

 

Rafa-Djoker rivalry

 

You probably didn’t notice, but there is a great new rivalry in tennis. Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic have met in the finals the last two weeks (Monte Carlo and then Rome) and the tennis has been incredible.

 [More]

Is New Yankee Stadium the new Wrigley Field?

It’s a little early to say for certain, but 20 home runs through the first four games suggest bettors need to be paying as close attention to the wind for Yankee games as we do for Cubs games.   Over bettors cashed in on three of those four games and oddsmakers have steadily bumped the total in New York from 8 runs for the home opener last Thursday to 10.5 runs for the past two games (odds from betjamaica.com).   Several books also delayed Tuesday’s line – an occurrence we see daily for outings at Wrigley Field – but that could also have something to do with the fact that Monday’s game was rained out.   Engineers apparently did a wind study before the $1.5 billion stadium was built but a team official said the club is going to do another one according to this column.   The piece went on to say that “games will be affected only during times when the winds are from a westerly direction above 10 mph, which they (meteorologists) say occur typically in spring and fall.”   Whatever the case, you should definitely take a read through this piece before wagering on any more games at Yankee Stadium. There could be an angle here... [More]

Western Conference preview and picks

For those of us who live in winter climates, there are few things sweeter than sitting in shorts on the back deck, sun beating down, ice cold brewsky in hand while listening to, or watching, the NHL playoffs.

 

Shorts are still on the horizon for me, but the postseason is here at least. Let’s get into the picks for the first round of the Western Conference.

 

All odds are from Pinnaclesports.com.

 

Duck vs. Shark (+252, -272)

 

Many are calling for the Quackers to upend the Sharks after winning 11 of their last 15 games. But let’s not forget they needed every one of those wins to squeak into the playoffs and now they face a San Jose squad that happens to be pretty good.

 

The fact is, I can’t find an area that Anaheim is better than Sa... [More]

I spot value in the Frozen Four

Ever wonder who’s tougher – football players or hockey players? If so, here’s a good story from the Frozen Four that provides key evidence in support of the hockey player.

It involves a spleen and a close call with death. You’ll love it.

 I’m bringing this gory tale to your attention because the Frozen Four goes today in Washington, D.C. where Boston University faces Vermont in one national semifinal and Cinderella story Bemidji State takes on Miami (Ohio) in the other.

This is a great event to bet because, like Polish soccer or Croatian volleyball, oddsmakers aren’t exactly keeping a hawk eye on college pucks. Plus, it’s great hockey to watch with tons of speed and intensity if you like that sort of thing.

Pinnacle opened Miami -230 against the Beav and BU is set at -240 over Vermont. Both totals were set at 5 ½ goals and I like the under in both.

Here’s who I’m taking, based on what I saw two weekends ago while watching some of the regionals: Bemidji on the puckline +1 ½ (-142) and also a small moneyline wager. I like BU to win... [More]

Total alert: Red Wings putting the clamps on

First things first: I like UNC and the under in the national championship game.

Now on to other moneymaking matters: play the under in Red Wings games for at least their next three games and possibly their last game of the season in Chicago. (You don’t know who they’ll hold out of the lineup in that last game, which is why I say that.)

The reason is simple.

After a three-game losing streak in which the Wings were outscored 11-7, the players met Friday after a grueling practice and decided it was time to get into playoff mode. Playoff mode for Detroit means taking care of your own end first and the scoring will take care of itself after with the Wings’ star-laden roster.

You can check out the story here to see what I mean.

The good news for bettors is Detroit’s goaltending has been the only thing softer than the economy there these days. Coach Mike Babcock has been yo-yoing between Ty Conklin and Chris Os-not-so-good and the guy who works the goal light has never been so excited.

But Babcock has said he’s starting Osgood in the playoffs and it’s time for his team to do a better job in front of him. If you want to see your team play g... [More]

Money grab: Capping the stuff you're not watching

I think I may have just watched my last episode of American Idol. Even with the aide of DVR this program is becoming only slightly more bearable than having my fingernails pulled out.

 

I was expecting the talent to continually progress into at least a batch of quasi professional performers, but what I witnessed last night was just a continuation of the train wreck that doesn’t seem to have a caboose.

 

Man-bangs Lambert was the best performer once again and may spend his last week on the plus side of the payout after Pinnacle dropped him to even money this week.

 

But he was bloody awful. The screaming rendition of Play That Funky Music blistered my ears and left me once again wondering who in their right mind would purchase this guy’s music.

 

There’s no point in getting into the others. It’s just unn... [More]

Sweet 16 wagers and more Idol chit chat

I am a little ashamed of the fact that when I type in the letters “a-m-e” in the URL slot at the top of my web browser that the official website for American Idol automatically pops up.  

But after talking about Crappy Idol last week in my blog, it seems there are some other watchers out there too, so let’s keep this going each week and see if any others come out of the karaoke closet.

After last night’s performances, Adam “Man Bangs” Lambert made me eat my words. He pulled off one of the best showings of the competition that made all but a couple of his other competitors look unworthy to be roadies on his future tour.

I didn’t recognize the song and I can’t even really remember the tune, but I have to admit it was impressive. Pinnacle responded in kind and dropped Lambert’s odds to +170 earlier this morning and that number has been bet down even further since.

Matt Giraud and Allison Iraheta were the only other two top notch singers of the evening and the 16-year-old Allison has especially made herself worth a wager at +930.

But after that, this show really lived up to its Crappy Idol handle.

Lil dropped the ball. Blind dude did the same boring rou... [More]

Who has the best value to win its region?

There is a bunch of chalk remaining for the Sweet 16 and that has led to one thing: more chalk. The No. 1 seeds are all heavy favorites to advance to the final four and several books, like Betjamaica, even have all four teams listed at minus money to win their respective regions.

Pittsburgh is -110 (East), UNC is -200 (South), Uconn is -110 (West) and Louisville is -165 (Midwest).  

It doesn’t exactly make for any huge payouts if you want to take any one of these teams to hit the court in Detroit in a couple of weeks.

So, my question to you is, who has the best value to win its region outside the No. 1s?

Before the tournament began I grabbed Kansas at a little better than +600 to win the Midwest and they are now at +400. I happen to think Louisville isn’t as good as the billing suggests and the Cards are beatable against a well-coached team with a savvy ball handler that can break the press.

The Jayhawks meet both those criteria with Bill Self and Sherron Collins.

Kansas still needs to get by a tough Michigan State squad, but if it can, I think the J-birds have a great shot at toppling Louisville. That is if the Cards can get by Zona.

Who... [More]