Jon_Campbell's Blog

Many reasons to like the under in Bombers games

By Jon_Campbell | View all Posts
Posted Monday, July 27, 2009 10:29 AM   9 comments

Here’s an angle for Silly Ball bettors: take a hard look at betting the under in Winnipeg Blue Bombers games for the next little bit.

That might be a bit obvious, considering they just signed unemployed QB Michael Bishop in a desperate effort to kick start the offense. But let’s see how oddsmakers react this week.

The over/under is 1-3 in Bombers games so far this season and oddsmakers at Pinnaclesports.com have posted all three of their totals between 50 and 53.5 points. It’s a little surprising we haven’t seen a bigger adjustment considering their starting quarterbacks just threw for a total of 66 yards in a 19-5 loss to the Toronto Argos and Stefan Lefors has the worst completion percentage in the CFL (46 percent).

What you might not have read about is that head coach Mike Kelly told the Winnipeg Free Press last week that he was going to simplify his offense because he had overestimated his talent at the beginning of the season. And that’s likely to continue with yet another quarterback stepping in to take over this week.

Another reason to like the under is the defense has been playing well considering the guys on the defensive unit can barely get off the field. The Blue Bombers allowed an average of 21 points in their three losses and it’s thanks to the defense they’ve actually managed to cover the spread twice.

The one worry for under bettors is that the defense might be exhausted this week for the rematch against the Argos in Toronto on Saturday afternoon. The good news there though, is the Boatmen only score 23.5 points per game – only four more than the Bombers.

Let’s see what the oddsmakers give us, but I’m thinking it could be a while before we see Winnipeg get over the number.   

9 comments
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clepto says:
07/28/09 01:09AM
Line is 45. OVER is the play
Jon_Campbell says:
07/28/09 08:08AM
Looks like the books are taking notice and I don't think it helps that the same two teams are playing again. I'm sticking to the under though. Until Winnipeg proves it can generate at least a little offense, there's still value on the under here.
icemantbi says:
07/28/09 03:44PM
Depends on wether Bishop plays on Saturday.  The reason for the unders in Winny games is due mostly to the fact Lefors can't complete a pass to save his life (the worst QB I have ever seen at a "pro" level).  Bishop can make those long passes up field and if can link up with his receivers, the Peg can put up mid 20's on the board.  At 45, it screams over, but again one has to wait and see if Bishop will start.
Brasco says:
07/28/09 04:34PM
Is rubbish Lefors still the starting QB?
Sharkraf says:
07/28/09 09:33PM
Good analysis....leaning towards under but sure would like to see the line go up to 47 or 48.......
cap77 says:
07/29/09 01:54AM
under is the play; win or lose;; why;; winny has a shutdown defense;; critisize kelly all u want but he hired a super D coor. , fired most of the secondary and brought in new athletic db's ranging from about 5'11 to 6'3 and they are for real;; if mbishop can score 2 tds and 3 fg (23) winny wins the game;; period
gers says:
07/29/09 01:09PM
bombers will score 5 points fuck lefors a bum did not mind last week cause i betted against the bombers will again this week

was not a fan of glenn but sure would like him back

wpgdude says:
07/29/09 05:36PM
Bishop will be the starter against T.O. As bad as the Bombers are, the Argos also suck quite bad.I will be taking the BIG BLUE and the Under.Bishop has a strong arm, and has been looking really good in practice.I dont see the Argos getting more than 10 points. I also agree, Lefors is the worst qb I have seen in some time. BRUTAL!! and coach Kelly is a moron for thinking he could be the starter this year.
gers says:
07/30/09 11:58AM
ya will go with bombers if bishop starts otherwise have to toronto

yes kelly is reminding of reinbold they would been better off with didwiddie dinwiddie whatever at qb than lefors

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