Jon_Campbell's Blog

The NL advantage during interleague play

By Jon_Campbell | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, June 17, 2009 08:18 AM   6 comments
I took the Jays/Phillies game to go under 9 runs Tuesday night thinking that Cole Hamels was on the mound and the Jays have been hitting like they’ve traded their bats for purses lately.
 
I also liked the fact that Ricky Romero was being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here as a young arm that has been a pleasant surprise for the Bee-Jays as their rotation continues to crumble to injuries.

But there was another factor I failed to consider that also helped my bet. His name is Ricky Romero.  

Not the guy on the mound. The guy at the plate.

Watching him bat with runners on the corners in the fourth inning with one out, the Jays up 2-1, was like watching a little kid trying to jump off the diving board for the first time.

He was lining up to bunt for so long before Hamels delivered that I can’t believe the Phillies’ southpaw didn’t crack up laughing and call for time. 

On his second strike, he sort of whiffed on a bunt that made his bat look like he was holding a piece of road kill.

“That was new,” said the Rogers Sportsnet color guy. (I think it was Pat Tabler doing the game.)

Romero went down on strikes after following up that embarrassment with the ugliest hack I’ve seen all season. Surely this guy has had to hit at some point in his life on his way to the majors. Right? 

He finished the game with three strikeouts and a pop up in the eight inning with two runners on and one out. (Why Cito Gaston didn't pinch hit for him in the eighth, I'll never know because he didn't pitch in the bottom of the inning.) In total, he left eight runners on base in the game.  

It reminded me just how big the advantage can be for NL clubs when they’re at home during interleague play. Not to mention for the under.

I had to lay a bit of juice (-120) at Betjamaica.com to get the under on this one, but after watching Romero at the plate I liked my bet, even though Toronto scored five runs in the 10th innning to spoil it for me.

The Jays ended up winning 8-3 as +175 underdogs (at BetJam).   

6 comments
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Support81 says:
06/17/09 09:37AM

Do you think you could lay down a sac. bunt against Hamels, or any other major league pitcher?    Wakefield?

 

 

 

 

 

Jon_Campbell says:
06/17/09 10:43AM
Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could do at least what I witnessed last night. It was potentially the worst hitting display I've ever seen. Ever.

But my point is more the betting value here. I think it's easy to feel that one batter shouldn't make that much of a difference in betting terms but it can be huge. Something to keep an eye on as interleague play continues.

dcchan4 says:
06/17/09 12:16PM
AL dominated IL play last year, the way you put it just sounds like the home team has the advantage. You hear players all the time say they dont want to play DH in the AL even big time hitters who cant field, like manny, the reason is because its to hard to just sit down and get up every 30 mins to swing, so with that in mind the AL would have a advantage.
Jon_Campbell says:
06/17/09 12:52PM
Sure the AL would have the advantage at home also in many cases, but at least the NL has a guy in the DH spot that practices hitting every day. Some of these AL pitchers look like they have never held a Louisville in their lives.
buckeye61 says:
06/18/09 01:32AM
I didn't visualize the game but followed it on CBSSPORTS.com as I had the Phillies and lost a 3 team parlay in the 10th.....ouch! It's certainly not been lost on me that American League pitchers can't bat worth shit for the most part. I'm sure Romero was a bit of a joke and can appreciate your point during home NL IL games just as I do when the AL is home during IL games. That's the value in IL normally, but in the case of the Jays...they are swinging the bats well enough to overcome their pitchers inept bats at the moment. Still a challenge to handicap.
Tanq_and_Tonic says:
06/18/09 10:56AM
This is why Micah Owings is awesome. While not the best pitcher, he can certainly help himself at the plate. Just the other night he jacked a HR that helped the Reds win the game.
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