Jon_Campbell's Blog

Expect Tenny-Florida line to come back down

By Jon_Campbell | View all Posts
Posted Friday, September 18, 2009 08:02 PM   4 comments

I wrote about the revenge factor in my Four-play column today but I wanted to expand on the Tennessee-Florida game because spreads like this are so rare in the SEC.

 Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, couldn’t remember a spread off-hand that was this big recently in the conference. (As of Friday night, it was at 29.5 at Pinnacle.)

 “The last time an SEC team laid more than four TDs that I found was all involving Miss State,” Kornegay said. “In 2006 Miss St  was +33 at LSU (LSU 48-17), 2005 Miss State was +28 at Florida (FLA 35-9), and 2004 Miss State was like +31 at LSU (LSU 51-0).”

 The record of 2-1 ATS doesn’t exactly suggest a lock here Saturday, but you get the point. This spread has gotten large.

 Kornegay said the Hilton initially had Saturday’s game at 23 points and it’s been bet up to as high as 30 points at some places. However, he also said he guessed that bettors were intentionally pushing the line up to bet Tennessee when the line got high enough.

 Looks like he’s right. The line is on the way back down again after reaching 30 at most books, so my advice is that if you like the Vols take ‘em early.   

4 comments
comment Post A Comment
TimTowner says:
09/18/09 08:06PM
Yeah, that line is insane but Tennessee doesn't have much on its side in this game.
The_BigDog says:
09/18/09 08:10PM
It is a ton of chalk to lay.. but if it gets to -27.5

I am going to have to make a fool out of myself. I won't bet the farm, but the south 40 is probably going to be in play.

AceofKings says:
09/18/09 08:20PM
crazy spread but I expect the gators to cover
David_Payne says:
09/19/09 01:49PM
Cool, inside info, Jon ... Get 'em this weekend ... DP

By the way, what's up with you being like 15 games or so over .500 on your staff picks. Wow.

Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement