Jon_Campbell's Blog

Betting the Frozen Four: I know, I have a problem

By Jon_Campbell | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, April 09, 2008 02:44 PM   0 comments

I have a confession to make.


Two weekends ago, while dishes lay in the sink from the night before, the car sat unwashed in the driveway and the sun shone brilliantly overhead after a long winter, I ignored it all. Instead, I kicked my feet up, closed the curtains, and watched a pile of NCAA hockey while I awaited the Elite Eight to begin some many hours away.


I did it because I’ve found in recent years that Frozen Four and NCAA hockey odds can be softer than the ice at Madison Square Garden. If you watch, you can take advantage.


It’s degenerate, I know. But that’s what I do.


I will seek help when I’m betting on Kuwaiti soccer, on which lines are offered at Pinnacle.


In any event, I feel like I have a decent feel for this week’s action beginning with Thursday’s two semifinals. Don’t ask me to give you names of players - I was watching the games in order to get a taste of how they play and how they might match up this week in Denver.


Here’s who I like:


BC vs. North Dakota (-165, 5 ½)


These two teams match up very well with one another. I think the line should be closer to a pick and I think the total should be five goals, not 5 ½.


Both have a ton of speed and both were the class of their respective regions when it came to wheels. Boston College will have a size disadvantage but I would also give them a slight speed advantage.  Every line across the board can fly on this squad.


They like to win with offense but I think North Dakota’s defensive style and size will dictate the way this game is played. Both goalies are great but Hoby Baker finalist Jean-Philippe Lamoureux is probably the reason the Sioux are here after watching Wisconsin outplay them in the regional finals.


Further research tells me B.C. has been in the Frozen Four finals, so you can add experience to the list of reasons why these odds are off.


Pick: Boston College, under 5 ½ (B.C. on the puckline +1 ½ -210 is tempting too)


Notre Dame vs. Michigan (-235, 5)


From what I saw, Michigan and Notre Dame don’t really belong on the same ice. Michigan is bigger, faster and all around more intimidating than the Irish squad.


That shouldn’t be taken as a major slight against Notre Dame. I don’t see either of BC or North Dakota beating the Wolverines in the finals.


Michigan has lost in its last three Frozen Four semifinals, so this squad is hungry for more this season. I’m thinking that the puckline should be bumped for this game, but lay the 1 ½ as long as the books are offering.


The Wolverines’ defense and big and tough and goaltending is strong, so Notre Dame might not score, but I still think Michigan will score five on its own here.


Pick: Michigan – 1 ½ goals +130

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