JooseBoxx's Blog

Posted Saturday, October 15, 2011 04:15 AM

CFL Week 16 & NFL Week 6

Winnipeg +2.5 (-110): Cashed with the Bombers as a dog last week, don't see why anything changes this week. Bombers are 9-5, and other than a few letdown spots have been great all season. Edmonton has been up and down, you never know what you are gonna get and even if they play their best it might not be enough. Winnipeg's run game is fine w/o Reid, and Buck Pierce is showing his ability to lead the offence. Edmonton excels when they are able to establish the run game, but that seems unlikely against the 2nd best run defence in the CFL. Ricky Ray is still trying to find his groove this year. His last four games reflect that with passing totals of 197, 255, 213 and 227. Winnipeg has the best defence in the East, and an offence that can move the ball when necessary. I love betting on Buck, he has the will to win. Risking 2.2 to win 2.
Carolina +4.5 (-110): The Panthers can cover games, and on that fast Georgia turf Cam Newton should feel right at home. Atlanta is not the same team, and now their best WR (and yes he is their best) Julio Jones is likely out with an injury. This is not the same team as last year, they have problems all over the field. I expect another cover, and perhaps even a win by the Panthers. Risking 2.2 to win 2.
Detroit -4 (-110): San Fran getting too much respect. Sure, they can stop the run, but despite Best's best efforts,Detroit can't run the ball. San Fran is 23rd in the league in yards allowed in the air, and this is where Stafford excels at pic... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 04, 2011 02:11 AM

CFL Week 15 & NFL Week 5

Winnipeg +5 (-110): Hamilton is over rated big time. You surprised a Calgary team playing more time zones away than they've ever had to and you beat a beat down Argos squad, big deal. What makes you 2 point favourites on a neutral field? Winnipeg's run game will be fine, it's not like Fred Reid was tearing it up this year. Garrett had 76 yards on 11 carries against a team that gives up 82.5 yards per game, easily best in the CFL. That is an amazing stat, and now you are likely to get Buck Pierce back to run the offence. As much as I love the Lions, I can admit that Buck Pierce has the most heart of any athlete I have ever seen play. Love this line, but will load up a bit more once I find out about Buck. Bombers are 2-0 vs. Hamilton this season. Hamilton has the 3rd worst rushing d and the 2nd worst pass d. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5.


Record: 40-25-2, +23.75 units
Last Week: 4-2, +2.25 units

Early Predictions
Winnipeg 41, Hamilton 17
Calgary 24, British Columbia 30
Toronto 29, Montreal 32
Saskatchewan 15, Edmonton 28


Posted Wednesday, September 28, 2011 04:26 PM

CFL Week 14 & NFL Week 4

British Columbia -5 (-110): There are so many warning signs, it's not even funny, as the Lions have a habit of letting down their backers when it counts most. New stadium, lots of hype, holding down a huge winning streak, Edmonton losing to a bunch of 2nd string defenders... it all points to BC. Looks too easy, I will just go small on this line. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

Saskatchewan +5.5 (-110): It's not a total wild prediction, but I will say that if the Riders don't beat the Stamps this weekend they will not make the playoffs, even if they finish the year 5-0. This is because they would then be 4 games behind Calgary, and either three games behind Edmonton and BC or 2 games behind BC and 4 games behind Edmonton. They might as well be an extra game behind BC since they have already lost the season series. Needless to say, the Riders will be all in for this game. Even when they sucked, they played Calgary hard. Calgary is struggling to find a running game, and as witnessed against BC, have a tough time dealing with a strong pass rush, which the Riders now possess. In fact, despite the big loss, the Riders have the same type of make up as the Lions, and I expect them to at least keep this a one possession game until the very end. Fantuz is questionable.Risking 1.1 to win 1.

Detroit +1 (-110): That's two weeks in a row where the Cowboys have failed to cover, and di... [More]

Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 06:54 PM

CFL Week 13 & NFL Week 3

Calgary +1 (-110): This is arguably the toughest betting week of the year in the CFL, and I am really hesitant to take anyone in the other games. However, Calgary presents immediate value when you look at Calgary's road record (5-0), past history (Calgary beat Hamilton by 12 this year) and Hamilton's lack of success this year against anyone decent (with the exception of Montreal). Okay, so we know Hamilton matches up well against Montreal because the Als are decimated in the secondary and are often unable to stop teams from passing even when it is evident to everyone that a pass is coming. Calgary is one of the best against the pass this year, and despite losing to BC, only gave up three plays over 13 yards in the air, and a measly 186 yards to Lulay. BC currently has a better passing attack than Hamilton, so this says a lot. The Stamps have been stopping the air attack all year. Hamilton won't beat them on the ground, and as we've seen all year, Calgary rebounds well (especially on the road). Risking 2.2 to win 2.

Jacksonville/Carolina OVER 42.5 (-110): I rarely play totals, but with all the overs hitting in the NFL, how can I not jump on this? I was skeptical of Newton when he picked apart those conscripted drunks Arizona calls a secondary, but when he worked over Green Bay, I was impressed. This kid is only going to get better, but what's great right now is that he likes to air it out without much regard for throwing picks, etc. Meanwhile, with all the inj... [More]

Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 07:52 PM

CFL Week 12 & NFL Week 11

Dallas -3 (-120): Great value on a team that should have won last night. This is a team that was up 14 in the 4th quarter and failed to win, largely because Mark Sanchez, despite his shitty appearance, does suffer from back against the wall syndrome, and can play when needed. What we get in week 2 is a Dallas opponent with an offence probably a bit less capable than NYJ, and a defence nowhere near as good. With both Austin and Bryant, along with Felix Jones who should have a much better day, Romo is equipped with some serious weapons, along with the pressure of getting a win before this season spirals out of control like the last. Risking 4.8 units to win 4.
Detroit -2/Saskatchewan -1 Teaser (-110): I picked on the Chiefs last week with a big dog, and I think this week could actually be worse. If I wasn't such a pussy I would take both these games strait up, because they both present great matchups. Detroit presents a formidable defensive line with some serious beasts that will do a great job of controlling the line of scrimmage and help limit the KC running game. After that, KC doesn't have much else, they are injured, and have a secondary that is already bad w/o Berry being out for the year. Things just get worse, and Matt Stafford IMO is a top 5 QB in the NFL. In the other game, you get a Toronto team that is featuring a QB who is likely still in preseason mode, learning the offence, and how to make chicken soup out of chicken shit. As some talked about earlier this yea... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 07, 2011 04:36 AM

CFL Week 11 & NFL Week 1

New Orleans +4 (-110): These are the same Saints who finished ahead of the Packers in the regular season last year. These are two teams who both struggled against the run yet thrived against the pass. However, not only is Green Bay the defending champs, but they still have a poor offensive line and are now without run stopper Cullen Jenkins. All in all, these are two very similar teams, and I will take the hungrier team and 4 points. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

BC -1.5 & Arizona -1 6pt teaser (-110): Arizona must be licking their lips, as their schedule provides them with a real legitimate chance to start the season 4-1. With a new QB, their offence is more dynamic, while Carolina has a rough road ahead with a rookie QB and the same problems as last year. BC was miles ahead of Toronto last week, and it was likely Cleo Lemon's sideline dimeanor that cost him his roster spot. I fully believe the Argos had no intention of releasing Lemon for at least another week or two, and this places Jyles, a guy who has barely worked with the offence in a tough position. To win this game, the Argos will need a spectacular performance from Jyles... again, I will bet against it. Risking 3.3 to win 3.

Record: 19-15, +8.95 units


Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 05:28 PM

CFL Week 10

British Columbia ML (-110): I'm not one of those people who think that the 36-1 dismantling of the Eskimos means the Lions are suddenly as good as anyone in the West. They beat a horse with two broken legs, but there are many positives to get from that game. The offence started to click against a defence that they fared poorly against early in the season. The DLine got some serious pressure, and is now creeping up on Winnipeg in terms of sacks this season. Lulay excelled when he had some time in the pocket, and now he goes against a defence that is last in sacks, interceptions, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Simply put, the Toronto defence is absolute shit, much worse than the defence the Lions just beat down two weeks ago. The Lions have also shown the ability to play better away from Empire in their short 2 year history, and this could be another case of a late season run that starts on the road. As mentioned last week, the Lions are slowly getting better at stopping the run. While Cleo Lemon has played well in 2 of his last 3 games, the only game he has won is the one in which he played poorly. He's far too inconsistent, yet if the Argos are going to win he will have to be on point the entire game. I'll bet against that any day. Risking 3.85 to win 3.5
Saskatchewan +3.5 (-110): Sometimes you just get that feeling that things are going to turn around (even if it's only temporary), and I get that feeling this week. Two-time CFL coach of the year candidat... [More]

Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 11:30 PM

CFL Week 9

Montreal/Calgary OVER 55 (-110): For the sake of betting, I'll take a small shot with the over. There's a way to shut down Calvillo, and teams are starting to figure it out... pressure the QB. It's too bad Calgary is last in the league in sacks, and will give Calvillo a ton of time to pick apart a good secondary. Conversely, Montreal's weakness has been pass defence, and the only thing that worries me is the two weeks they've had to prepare for Calgary. Let's hope they haven't figured out all of their problems just yet. Risking 0.55 to win 0.5

Record: 16-11, +8.5 units

Early Predictions
Hamilton 25 @ Winnipeg 21
Montreal 42 @ Calgary 29


Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 06:06 PM

CFL Week 8

British Columbia +6 (-110): Oh yes, I'm an idiot, but I actually have reasons for making my Lions play this week. First, Edmonton is going to be without most (if not all) of their import WRs, forcing them to sign Rodriguez and DROPson Collins this week. W/O Barnes and Stamps, the Eskimos will have a very tough time passing the ball. Second, Edmonton's key has been the emergence of the run game, something that has come crashing down to earth recently, largely because Jerrome Messam is who we thought he was. He's not that good, he's not Sean Millington, and he's only had one game over 60 yards this year. Third... despite their struggles, don't look now, but the Lions are actually stopping the run these days. They have held the starting RB to 26, 42 and 53 the last three weeks... and two of those games were against arguably the best RB (Reid) in the CFL. This is largely due to Elimimian becoming the best inside LB in the CFL. BC will force Ray to beat them in the air, and w/o any time to prepare with his new WRs, you have to give the edge to the Lions. If they can remove the turnovers, and do what they do best (keep games close and lose at the last second), they should cover. Risking 3.3 to win 3.

Record: 14-11, +4.5 units

Early Predictions
Edmonton 22 vs. British Columbia 21
Saskatchewan 29 @ Toronto 20


Posted Thursday, August 11, 2011 06:38 PM

CFL Week 7

Jerome Messam UNDER 58.5 yrds rushing (+105): Three reasons. First, Messam hasn't had a game over 54 yards since his 100 yard breakout game against Hamilton. Second, Montreal is 2nd in the CFL is rushing yards, allowing only 85.7 per game. Third, Montreal is favoured, so you expect Edmonton to put the ball in the air a lot more. Risking 2 to win 2.10

British Columbia -1 (-110): With or without Arland Bruce, the Lions have gained a lot of confidence. Hmm... I can't think of any other reasons, I suppose I have a gut feeling, that's worth a unit to me. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

Record: 10-10, +0.5 units

Early Predictions
Montreal 23 vs. Edmonton 20
Calgary 28 @ Saskatchewan 22
Toronto 31 @ Hamilton 30
British Columbia 23 vs. Winnipeg 18


Posted Wednesday, August 03, 2011 12:26 AM

CFL Week 6

British Columbia -3 (-110): It's becoming one of those things where you know you bet on CFL football if you have had at least one moment this year where you absolutely felt the Lions were going to win a game. This might be my second moment, and this time it's more about the weaknesses of their opponent than the Lions' own strengths. Sasky's offence looks brutal, and if you look at their last game they were basically held to 11 points and an interception that bounced into Dressler's arms. They've made no big changes offensively, and I don't think they are anywhere near as desperate as BC, a team that lost to Winnipeg due to untimely drops (Gore and Collins) and one bad missed pass interference call. BC will sit Collins (thankfully), and hopefully Nick Moore can hold onto the ball. BC has also made some big changes on defence, replacing Davis Sanchez at safety and adding Tad Kornegay to the defence. With the BC owner flying in unscheduled last week, the heat is up big time. If this team wasn't prone to dropping passes and finding every way possible to lose, I might make this a big play. Risking 2.2 units to win 2.

GL
Record: 9-7, +2.1 units
Early Predictions
Montreal 30 @ Toronto 19Edmonton 22 @ Winnipeg 21British Columbia 29 vs. Saskatchewan 20Hamilton 25 @ Calgary 23... [More]

Posted Wednesday, July 27, 2011 07:05 PM

CFL Week 5

1st Half Winnipeg ML (-130): There are many reasons to like the Bombers in this spot. First, the Lions are one of the worst against the run, while the Bombers will likely give them a healthy dose of Reid, who has produced well against the Leos in the past. Second, the Bombers secondary is one of the best in the league, facing a BC team that is pass-first, and whose starting RB (Robertson) is questionable with an achilles injury. Third, you have the fact that BC is one of the worst teams out of the gate, going 0-4 against the spread and ML in their four 1st halves this year, while the Bombers start well at home, going 2-0 ML and ats. Finally, the Bombers should get an emotional boost after the death of their defensive line coach (RIP). Risking 1.3 to win 1.

Record: 6-3, +3.9 units

Week 5 Predictions
Winnipeg 32 vs. BC 31
Edmonton 31 vs. Toronto 21
Saskatchewan 33 vs. Calgary 32
Montreal (with AC) 36 @ Hamilton 22
Hamilton 26 vs. Montreal (w/o AC) 18


Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 03:42 AM

CFL Week 4

Winnipeg +3.5 (-110): Reid >> Kackert. Pierce = Lemon. Winnipeg Secondary >> Toronto Secondary. Toronto Special Teams >> Winnipeg Special Teams. This is a mess of a writeup, but what I mean to say is that giving 3.5 points is too much when Toronto is missing their best player. Risking 3.3 units to win 3.

Record: 3-3, -0.6 units


Posted Wednesday, July 06, 2011 12:43 AM

CFL Week 2

New here, but I do pretend to know CFL football, and I enjoy reading the contributions of others on this forum.
British Columbia -1.5 (-110): Calgary won't be in the Western Final, IMO. I'm not just saying this because of the Week 1 loss to Toronto, but you can't expect a team to lose Browner, Anderson and Lysak from the secondary and just pick up where they left off defensively. In a league so pass-oriented, this is a huge obstacle, and one that should give the Stamps big problems. They go up against a BC squad that should get better by the week, especially as the young WRs stop dropping passes and run better routes. Lulay is emerging, and the defence is solid (except against the run, as usual). BC's oline is much improved, and should be prepared should Hufnagel employ any weird front sets like he used last year against the Lions. I don't see the Stamps walking away winners unless Cornish and Reynolds can combine for 150+ on the ground (which is possible). Risking 2.2 units to win 2.
Montreal -2 (-110): Offensively, Montreal is a lot like Edmonton. They have a great passing offence, questionable running game and superb QB with limited mobility. The old Riders would have blitzed the hell out of this game, forcing Calvillo to make quick reads, which I think is the only way to really limit his output. But with Richie Hall, there will be much less blitzing, and more time for AC to pick apart a weak secondary. I don't expect Montreal to stop Durant, and I do expect him to h... [More]

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