Some contrarian thoughts on the double-digit bowl underdogs

I’m all for situational plays, whether it’s anticipating a letdown, distraction, or other related malady when it comes to bowl games.  

In fact, when it comes to handicapping college sports, I use the psychology in play more than the X’s and O’s, and it has worked for me.

But I’ve run into a problem this year. Ever since bowl spreads were announced, I’ve talked to a few handicappers who have tried to sell me on one or both of the biggest underdogs in the bowl season – Arizona State and Iowa.

To which I say, getting two touchdowns is great, but Arizona State and Iowa … really?

So after hearing these pro-underdog arguments for nearly two weeks now – and this coming from someone who prefers to take points as opposed to give them – I am now going to make a brief argument for the other side in both games.

Although neither game likely will be a big play for me, I just thought I would add some contrarian thinking to what appears to be grass-roots value in these double-digit dogs.

Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State (+14)
 
The Sun Devils have been one of the worst teams you possibly could consider backing all year, so why start now?

No one has done less with more talent over the past few years than Dennis Erickson, and the school waited at least a year too long to dump him. Now, there’s even controversy surrounding his replacement, Todd Graham, who evidently forgot to tell Pitt he was leaving after one y... [More]

Hand the Heisman to the Honey Badger

Tyrann Mathieu should win the Heisman Trophy. Just writing those words makes me cringe a little because, with all due respect to his talent, I could live without the Honey Badger.

I’m not a terribly big fan of people who give themselves nicknames and the inherent narcissism that accompanies such self-made monikers.

In fairness, I’m similarly not wild about Robert Griffin’s look-at-me infomercial after Baylor’s win last week over Texas, although it’s starting to look like a stroke of marketing genius.

Griffin told a national audience that he believed Baylor should have its first Heisman winner, and apparently ballot-holders who watched the interview were sold.

Why and how, I’m not sure. That Griffin literally became the overnight favorite for the Heisman is one of the oddest oddities in a season full of them.  

First, we have to get past our biases on what the Heisman should or shouldn’t be. Ostensibly, it’s supposed to go to the most outstanding player in college football. How that is defined depends on who you talk to.

There have been some trends over the years, including the bothersome one of the Heisman essentially belonging to the pre-season media favorite unless he does something drastic to not warrant it.

Over the past few years, we’ve trended toward giving it to the best player on the best team. I’m not arguing that’s the correct approach or a perfect system, but at least we’ve started to be a little more consist... [More]

Hawaii hanger-ons and the Jekyll & Hide show

In Nevada sportsbooks, there’s a name for diehard gamblers who occupy lumpy chairs until the wee hours, sweating out that last college football game when most of us already have called it a day.

They are known as “Hawaii hanger-ons,” and their action has been known to have an impact on their own bankrolls as well as the book’s bottom line.

They aren’t a whole lot different than the types you see who, almost invariably, try to recoup a weekend’s losses by betting whatever they have left on the chalk in the Monday Night Football game.

Some Hawaii hanger-ons are the compulsive types who need to have a dollar on every game, but the club’s members use a revolving door. Most are temporary who see that last game, usually with 9 or 10 p.m. kickoff local time, as a potential means by which to avoid waiting until Sunday morning to get back some of what they lost during the Saturday slate.

Most people who bet college football seriously likely have visited the Hawaii hanger-on club a time or two, and I’m no exception. But I’ve long since kicked the habit.

Even so, the alleged point-shaving scandal that hit Hawaii this week brought to light a dynamic I’ve been witnessing for years. That is, the sportsbook needing Louisiana Tech or Idaho to cover 20-odd points in order to take the cash from the hanger-ons, who gladly sweat out games that inevitably seem to last about 6 hours, in hopes the Warriors can bring them some needed cash.

Also, as a med... [More]

Struggling to find the proper perspective on the Penn State scandal

Nebraska coach Bo Pelini said he believed Penn State, amid the controversy engulfing its campus and football program, should have canceled last Saturday’s game against the Cornhuskers.

This is the same guy who seemed to think there was nothing wrong with verbally lambasting his then-19-year-old freshman quarterback last year in front of a national television audience.

In both cases, he couldn’t have been more wrong. Canning the game would have accomplished little other than penalizing a group of college football players who have no connection with Jerry Sandusky, the former assistant coach who is facing allegations of child sexual abuse.

If there’s one thing we should learn from this whole ordeal, it’s that the proper perspective is hard to come by. Yes, we need to stop and take stock of ourselves and acknowledge that there are more important things in life than a college football game.

We also have to make sure we don’t veer too far the other way. The Sandusky scandal already has cost a lot of people their jobs, reputations and potentially jeopardized their personal safety.

Some of which is deserved, but I’m not sure the fallout has been falling on the right people. Least of whom, Joe Paterno. The legendary coach now has to go out on someone else’s terms instead of his own, and sympathy for Joe Pa has been hard to come by because the consensus seems to be he “should have done more.”

I guess this depends on your definition.... [More]

Sports betting and my insider trading nightmare

I’ve read with interest some of the recent news reports surrounding a couple of high-profile insider trading cases.

In one, former hedge fund titan Raj Rajaratnam was sentenced to 11 years in prison in what is believed to be the harshest sentence ever handed down for the offense.

At his sentencing, the judge admonished the defendant for his behavior, and said something like, “You knew very well you made investments based on direct inside information about the companies.”

And I’m thinking … this is wrong, because …? Somebody help me out here.

A few friends of mine who have dabbled in stock trading have told me, “It’s pretty much like the sports betting you do every day, except it’s done on Wall Street.”

Right, with one major exception: I’m allowed to make informed decisions before I wager. Evidently, as Raj’s shackles prove, you’re only allowed to gamble on the stock market provided you know nothing about the company you are wagering on.

How fair is that? Is it just the sports bettor in me, or is this the most counterintuitive, backward line of thinking I’ve ever heard?

Anyhow, later that night I won a bet based in part on a solid tip that a player on the opposing team was playing through a pretty bad injury and wouldn’t be the same. He wasn’t, and I took this information straight to the bank.

But as I dozed off after counting my hard-earned cash, I had a nightmare that insider trading suddenly was banned in... [More]

"Don't handicap like that" -- words to live by

Those precious words were spoken to me last week by none other than John Avello, the venerable oddsmaker at the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort.

I had contacted him as a resource for my weekly column titled “Lines That Make You Go Hmmm …” on this website, an assignment that charges me with identifying a few lines that look fishy for whatever reason.

I ran past him Missouri -3 against an undefeated Kansas State team at home, suggesting the line could have been the other way around or a pick’em at the very least.

I then confided in Avello that, despite the value I saw in the Wildcats, it was unlikely I would fire on them. They had been under the radar to this point and, I figured, about the time I jump on the bandwagon, it’s destined to blow a tire.

Without sounding condescending nor preachy, Avello replied with the following:

“Don’t handicap like that,” he said flatly. “Don’t try to look too far ahead or too far behind. Try to gauge a team in its current form and go from there.”

He basically alluded to the fact that I was doing just that by pointing out the factors I saw in that particular game. My job was to find vulnerable lines, and I had spotted a dandy. That didn’t stop me from screwing up his advice.
     
Avello's words struck me as one of those refreshing reminders that we all sometimes need, whether it’s in the fundamentals of sports betting or life.

You know, lasting lessons such as “D... [More]

Cheating, angle-shooting or smart betting? You decide

When I visited the sportsbook early last Sunday to cash some college winners and get down on a couple of NFL games, the ticket writer was eager to share with me a story of a bettor who tried to take full advantage of the parlor’s mistake.

The previous day, the woman told me, a customer came in and tried to make a small straight bet on Middle Tennessee State -23.5 against Memphis. He couldn’t hide his delight in noticing his ticket read “Middle Tennessee +23.5” (that’s plus three scores and change, a 47-point swing of the original spread), and quickly took great means to exploit the snafu.

The dude immediately emptied his wallet on the bet, which came to about $200, then headed to the ATM and withdrew his maximum allowance, about $600. If $800 is good, more is better, he concluded.

Because evidently his bank is open on Saturday, and the guy came back about 20 minutes later with three dimes to fire on this sure thing.

At which point, the woman informed him that if his previous bets didn’t get the house’s attention, this one surely would, and she couldn’t guarantee he’d get away with it. She booked the bet anyway.

The ticket writer told me she was off duty by the time the game ended and the guy tried to collect, so she wasn’t sure what happened to his bets. Middle Tennessee won 38-31 and failed to cover the posted -23.5 chalk, but easily covered the “alternate” spread as a +23.5-point dog.  

The sportsbook employee ... [More]

Top 5 Myths in College Football

While I am thinking of it, I’d like to dispute a few myths that have reared their ugly heads early in this college football season. For whatever reasons, the vast majority of college football observers seem to believe these to be true, despite strong evidence that suggests otherwise.

Without wasting any more space in introductions, here are the Top 5 pervading myths in college football and why they are not true:

1) Oregon State’s Mike Riley is a “great” coach. How do you figure? Riley is nice to the media and smiles easily, so the media showers him with adulation in return. Whenever the Beavers are mentioned, commentators never miss a chance to tell you what an awesome coach they have.

The Riley cheerleading is getting old. The bottom line is, his teams rise up and win a game they aren’t supposed to win once a while – the USC upset of a few years ago comes to mind -- but they also lose far too many games that they are supposed to win. His 2009 team that went 8-5 had the talent go 11-2 but came up way short of its potential. Riley is 69-56 (55 percent) at Oregon State and hit a new low by losing to Sacramento State in the season-opener. Last week’s 35-0 humiliation at Wisconsin was supposed to be the type of game for which the Beavers give an inspired performance; they aren’t even doing that anymore. 

2) Georgia’s Mark Richt is a “bad” coach. The idea that Richt needs to start keeping an eye on his inbox for the pink slip that might b... [More]

Thinking of fading the SEC? Think again

To listen to the pundits, you’d think acknowledging that the SEC is by far the best conference in college football is an idea that’s … oh-so 2010.
 
Think again.

With a couple of noted exceptions – Kentucky and Georgia come to mind –- the SEC proved again in Week 1 that it is the strongest top-to-bottom conference in the country.

To argue otherwise is misguided at best, foolish at worst.

The numbers prove this, both on the field and at the sports book. The SEC was 8-4 against the spread over the weekend, and the West particularly was strong at 5-1 (Auburn’s near-upset loss to Utah State was the lone loser).

I’m thinking if you placed 12 bets and cashed in eight of them, it would make for a happy Labor Day weekend.

Now, the idea that other conferences have improved surely has some merit, but to connect this notion as coinciding with some sort of decline in the SEC would be a mistake.

Sure, Ohio State had a nice win over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, Oregon was more than respectable in the BCS title game and Boise State just clobbered Georgia in Atlanta. I’ll give credit where it’s due.

Even so, a broader-picture view shows the SEC still sits atop college football’s perch. The conference has won five straight BCS titles and six of the last eight. The SEC has covered in each of the six wins and two of the clubs –- LSU in 2003 and Florida in 2007 -- did so as a touchdown underdog.
 
Granted, in last year... [More]

Mississippi State is worth a long look

If you’re looking for this year’s Auburn, you might want to keep your eye on Mississippi State.

I know I will. With odds at around 60/1 to win the BCS title at most betting parlors, the experience –heavy Bulldogs are worth a shot.
They have the makings of a club that could duplicate Auburn’s feat, which earned savvy futures bettors as high as 100/1 odds last year.

They return 16 starters, including 9 on offense, from a club that went 9-4 last year, obliterated Michigan in a bowl game, and was only really blown out of one contest, a 29-7 loss to LSU.

Miss St. was competitive against Alabama before fading late, lost on a late TD to Arkansas and, coincidentally, succumbed by just three points to eventual BCS champ Auburn.

Quarterback Chris Relf looks more and more like a poor man’s Cam Newton, and coach Dan Mullen might qualify as a poor man’s Urban Meyer.  A 6-foot-4, 245-pound dual threat in Newton’s mold, Relf didn’t put up great passing numbers last year but steadily improved as the season wore on and his confidence seemed to grow each time he took the field.

He finished with 1,789 passing yards with 13 TDs, and ran for 713 yards and 5 scores.

Most of the Bulldogs’ top position players also return, including running back Vick Ballard, who went for nearly 1,000 yards and scored 19 times. They also come back with the core of a solid defense that allowed just 20 points per game last season ranking No. 21 nationally.

M... [More]

Another football fiasco unfolds at West Virginia

Bill Stewart just lost a job that many people believe he never deserved. That doesn’t make his former boss any less of a coward, or his successor any less of a drunken buffoon.

Nor does it make the West Virginia offense any more exciting, which was the catalyst behind AD Oliver Luck’s misguided decision to fire Stewart but keep him on the staff for one more year to groom his replacement, heavy-drinking Dana Holgorsen, because Stewart is just too nice of a guy to terminate the old-fashioned way.

Suddenly, the tenure of the coach everyone loves to hate ended in the biggest college football fiasco this side of Ohio State. Stewart Gate might end up costing all three stooges their jobs, and you could argue they don’t deserve anything less.

You could argue Luck should be the first casualty of this fiasco instead of the last, which seems his more likely destiny. You could also make a case for Stewart’s legacy at West Virginia being one of the coach who was both hired and fired too soon.
 
West Virginia football hasn’t had this much upheaval since, well, the last time they made a coaching change, when Rich Rodriguez left town for Michigan and set off an uproar that could be heard from Morgantown in Ann Arbor.

Stewart was seen as a savior in those days. Amid all the controversy and negative publicity, he took a downtrodden Mountaineers team and throttled heavily favored Oklahoma 48-28 in the Fiesta Bowl.

I’ll never forget all the sidel... [More]