Josh_Nagel's Blog

Sports betting and my insider trading nightmare

By Josh_Nagel | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 04:35 PM   10 comments

I’ve read with interest some of the recent news reports surrounding a couple of high-profile insider trading cases.

In one, former hedge fund titan Raj Rajaratnam was sentenced to 11 years in prison in what is believed to be the harshest sentence ever handed down for the offense.

At his sentencing, the judge admonished the defendant for his behavior, and said something like, “You knew very well you made investments based on direct inside information about the companies.”

And I’m thinking … this is wrong, because …? Somebody help me out here.

A few friends of mine who have dabbled in stock trading have told me, “It’s pretty much like the sports betting you do every day, except it’s done on Wall Street.”

Right, with one major exception: I’m allowed to make informed decisions before I wager. Evidently, as Raj’s shackles prove, you’re only allowed to gamble on the stock market provided you know nothing about the company you are wagering on.

How fair is that? Is it just the sports bettor in me, or is this the most counterintuitive, backward line of thinking I’ve ever heard?

Anyhow, later that night I won a bet based in part on a solid tip that a player on the opposing team was playing through a pretty bad injury and wouldn’t be the same. He wasn’t, and I took this information straight to the bank.

But as I dozed off after counting my hard-earned cash, I had a nightmare that insider trading suddenly was banned in sports betting. I dreamt I was jolted out of my seat at the sportsbook by two large law enforcement officers, beaten, cuffed and dragged away to the police station.

At my initial hearing, the judge scolded me just like Raj’s did, and famous oddsmakers like Jimmy Vaccaro and John Avello were glaring at me disapprovingly from across the courtroom.

The district attorney proclaimed to the jury, “We have hard evidence that proves Mr. Nagel knew LSU’s entire defensive line was suspended before he placed that extraordinarily large bet on Alabama.”

At which point, a crowd full of supporters, some of whom were paying for my defense, erupted in applause. During breaks, they were betting an over/under on what amount my bail would be set at, and taking futures on the result of my sentencing.
     
Because of the public outcry, the charges were dropped in the interest of justice, but I was banned forever from the sportsbook. But Raj and other real-life inside traders aren’t let of the hook so easily.

That’s why I couldn’t help think of Raj and my dream Saturday afternoon as I was about to get down on some afternoon games. The under 41 in the Illinois-Penn State game already was one of my favorite plays of the day. It became my play of the year after I looked up at the big screen and saw the feed ESPN was showing about a half hour before kick-off.

The image of a blizzard engulfing Happy Valley was a sight for this “under” bettor’s sore eyes. As if these two clubs weren’t headed for a three-and-out puntfest in the first place, this snowstorm was akin to dropping two banana slugs into a molasses-filled aquarium and ordering them to swim a sprint. I haven’t seen a surer thing in ages.

But as I approached the betting window, I had an uneasy suspicion that I was being watched. I looked both ways, hands trembling and voice cracking, as I explained to the writer that I wanted the under only on number 174.

He asked how much, and I grabbed all the legal tender from my wallet and a couple of morning ticket winners, and quietly said, “Just roll all of this on it.”

The writer printed the ticket, and I grabbed it and ran out of the sportsbook, keeping my head on a swivel like a Pop Warner special teamer. I got to the parking lot and was relieved that I hadn’t been tackled or apprehended, and my car didn’t appear to have a GPS device attached.

My bet was action, and I realized that my dream wasn’t reality, and grateful that the rules of insider trading don’t apply to sports betting. I also hoped that Raj finds a judge who shows him some mercy during his appeal.

10 comments
comment Post A Comment
FoolishTool says:
11/01/11 05:15PM
You sure do like to brag on yourself a lot!!! Did your big brother beat the shit out of you all the time growing up or something??? Good grief!
Josh_Nagel says:
11/01/11 06:13PM
Well at least someone left a comment. There's something to be said for that.
ScottLandau says:
11/01/11 06:15PM
Oh come on dude he ain't bragging. It's his column and he's having a little fun with it. Don't be a FoolishTool!
ScottLandau says:
11/01/11 06:18PM
Hey I popped UNDER 54.5 Thursday night in the Rutgers game after seeing the forecast. My insider trading tip didn't pan out.

Josh, remember our talk on MIDDLES? Rivers! Grrr...... 3 Dimes out the window. Probably 100 million dollars switched hands when that assclown couldn't field a snap!

Josh_Nagel says:
11/01/11 06:27PM
Scott, ouch on both fronts. So you took SD moneyline and Chiefs +3.5? Definitely deserved better. I didn't bet the Rutgers/Wva. total but, shoot, I'd have probably taken the under between those two on a sunny day. I couldn't believe it when I saw the first-quarter score. Good luck this weekend.
SashimiKid says:
11/01/11 07:36PM
Funny how different lines scream out to individual bettors, yours was the under 51 which you pounded, mine was under in the Georgia Tech game. Nice hit for you, continued success!
ScottLandau says:
11/02/11 03:51PM
Josh I only took UNDER 54.5 because I knew it would drop to 50 or below when other people noticed the skating rink and wind conditions. Didn't pan out, but I did get 49 Saturday AM.

In the MNF game I had SD -2.5 -120 1200/1000 and KC +4 900/800. I stood to clear 1,900 but instead got drowned by the Rivers and lost 300. I think I'm over it now though. Need a short memory to keep doing this shit. Good Luck to you too Josh.

Ktrain says:
11/02/11 07:17PM
Is this a serious article or is it just a really slow day for you?

You do understand how trading on insider knowledge could be similar to someone arranging for a game to be fixed right?

crazyakes says:
11/05/11 08:55PM
Ktrain.....I don't know what you're implying. All I know is you ask a stupid question in a tone that implies you got a bad attitude.

Knowledge is power. Knowing a running back sprained his ankle bad on saturday on some stairs and is hiding it to avoid it being targeted, thats inside info.

Thats NOTHING to do with fixing games. Talking to sources and getting inside info is how the whales make big bucks, not just by analyzing lines and trends...they go after the hidden values common men would never know about. They know a star QB found out his wife was cheating on him. Hell, they may hire a PI and deliver the photos to him the morning of a big game and bet heavy the other side knowing he's distracted.

Nothing illegal about that, so quit your crying about fixing games.

Josh_Nagel says:
11/08/11 11:35AM
It's worth noting that I'd bet on a fixed game, too, provided I knew what the "right" side was. I guess I have no shame.
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement