Josh_Nagel's Blog

Long shot Super Bowl props

By Josh_Nagel | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, January 29, 2009 01:27 AM   17 comments

One of my favorite all-time Super Bowl bets is one that I lost. This is because the paper it’s printed on helped me win, metaphorically speaking.


Well, sort of.

The bet is about 5 years old, and yet I still have the slip to this day. I take a look at it once in a while because it features some words I find both amusing and partly inspiring.

Those words are: “Yes, there will be.” This is the only text on the betting slip.

Sports books offer all sorts of long-shot proposition bets on the Super Bowl, and this was one of them. You see, no Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime, and rarely has there been a successful two-point conversion or a safety. Thus, they offer long odds on each proposition.

I was betting on the safety at a whopping price of 8-to-1. Not that I had any logical reason to believe one would occur, but it would give me sort of an eclectic rooting interest and hey, for $10, the potential payout wasn’t bad.

But clearly the oddsmakers were betting big that nothing would happen. In fact, “No, there won’t be” was the whopping 1-to-10 favorite.

I never understood why they didn’t just print something more straightforward such as, “Safety +800” on the ticket. Evidently they weren’t into economizing, yet didn’t have room to explain the whole bet, so they went simply with “Yes, there will be.”   

Of course, there wasn’t. Another Super Bowl went down in the books safety-free, and I was left with a losing sports bet that the hopeful side of me decided to turn into a fortune cookie, even if there was no fortune to be found.

Don’t get me wrong, sports betting should never be confused as analogous to anything that actually means something, but I’ve chosen to find some meaning in the verse on this ticket.

In short, “There Will Be” likely always will be a long shot. There will be dreams, goals and long shots, and most people probably will be in agreement with the house that the odds are stacked against you. “There Won’t Be” is the overriding sentiment for a lot of people these days.

And yet, what a triumph it will be the day your ticket is cashed. Even if it is overdue to hit.   

It often feels like the oddsmaker of life is betting against you, but the only way you’ll ever truly be a loser is if you never stop betting on yourself.

But as long as you have hope – even if it’s symbolized by a losing betting slip -- there’s always a chance, no matter how slim, that something always will be.  

Now, back to figuring out my bets for this Sunday’s Super Bowl.

17 comments
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nc1capper says:
01/29/09 01:43AM
its simple - dont over cook the goose guys ,,take the cards- take the points - cash the ticket --holla --
Iw1nBets says:
01/29/09 03:01AM
vatohawk says:
01/29/09 12:00PM
I recall seeing a safety Ny Giants and Buffalo Super bowl 25.
01MustangGT says:
01/29/09 12:46PM
I liked it, well written and had an interesting message behind the gambling

nice job josh

bb2198 says:
01/29/09 03:47PM
Just a quick fact. there have been 5 safties in super bowls..
bb2198 says:
01/29/09 03:52PM
oh ya and there have been alot of 2 pt conversions.. i like the article but dont give inaccurate stats. you might entice some people to bet on these thinking they really never have happened..
Josh_Nagel says:
01/29/09 04:41PM
Sorry, bb2198.

Guess the sentence should have read: "No Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime, and rarely has there been a successful two-point conversion or a safety. Thus, they offer long odds on each proposition."

Does it really change the meaning of the story? The point wasn't to send people in droves to bet against the safety, but I reckon they will give you a refund if you hurry. Good luck.

bb2198 says:
01/29/09 05:19PM
Like I said I liked the article but it would have had more credibility if you used actual stats.
jackdfan says:
01/29/09 08:29PM
You have to take chances to get chances......................

Hey, BB, why don't you quit being a dick, and if you want the actual stats, LOOK FOR THEM YOURSELF?

Just a crazy thought.................

p0kerfacee says:
01/30/09 09:11AM
heres a fact cards are hott and have better receivers the will not only cover they will win mark my words..im just happy the eagles arent in it i hate em
King_III says:
01/30/09 09:55AM
Lets get the stats right
BigGameBG says:
01/30/09 08:36PM
Hey, I'm from Nevada too and I go to Unr. Who do you like for the Super Bowl?

BG

Josh_Nagel says:
01/30/09 09:19PM
Good to have a fellow Reno guy aboard, BigGameBG. I'm betting that the sports books will be the big winners in this Super Bowl. No side bet from me on this one. Good luck to you.
BigGameBG says:
01/31/09 03:47AM
Good Luck to you also.

BG

goldsheet says:
01/31/09 03:04PM
wtf?

a write up on the meaning of life? "It often feels like the oddsmaker of life is betting against you, but the only way you’ll ever truly be a loser is if you never stop betting on yourself." Is that from an afterschool special?

I do like the no overtime play though even at the long odds. The trend is your friend.

bb2198 says:
02/01/09 10:49PM
JackDFan I hope you lost your shirt on the safety,, I hope you read this article and really believed there has never been one. I hope you put your house on it..
bb2198 says:
02/01/09 10:51PM
just realized he switched the article-- good move prob saved some people money.. anyways I hope everyone won money on the game except JACKDFAN..

I know my big play was holmes over 3.5 receptions..

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