Josh_Nagel's Blog

Tales from a sports betting grinder

By Josh_Nagel | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 04:54 PM   10 comments
Poker players who eke out a living on a limited bankroll by maximizing small edges and making sure they stay within their financial means often are referred to as “grinders.”

That’s a fairly apt description to my relationship with sports betting. I don’t bet on sports for a living – I don’t have the bankroll to pay the bills with it, and I’m not sure I’d want to if I did -- but it is a significant part of my income, in more ways than one.

I make a good part of my income writing about sports betting and the gaming industry, and then use some of this money as my betting bankroll. For years, this “second job” stemming from this symbiotic relationship has worked out pretty well for me.

I know when I put my mind to it and stay disciplined, I’ve proven I can be a winning player over the long haul.

I also know that I like to gamble, and sometimes I’ll put a decent-size bet on the Monday Night Football total or the pass line for no other reason than to have action. But the good news is, I no longer rationalize this behavior as some sort of smart play. It’s gambling for gambling’s sake, and I’m prepared to live with the consequences.

But most of the time, I’m pretty good. Like any other business, there’s simply no substitute for experience, and I feel like I’ve paid some dues. These days, I’m focused on eliminating the white noise – the “experts” you run into at every turn who can make you second-guess yourself – and staying within my means, while also being unafraid to take a shot every so often when I think I have the best of it.

Through my work with Covers.com and various media outlets, I’ve had my share of opportunities over the past several years, for which I am grateful. I’ve turned down a handful of paid handicapping offers, but I do take part in what is now a nationally syndicated free picks column, in which myself and two other professional handicappers select college football games. (Check out the link below if you are interested.)

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111020/SPORTS08/110200315/Sports-betting-Defending-champ-Auburn-hot-pick-Week-8

I’ve been fortunate to hit a few big tickets this year, and on a couple of occasions took advantage of Covers.com’s invitation to tweet tickets that told an interesting story. So far, I’ve tweeted tickets that told tales of close calls and cold sweats but ended in happy wads of cash.

Well, in the interest of transparency, let me tell you what my Saturday was like. Another handicapper and myself sent out Auburn +22.5 for our weekly selection, and I believed in the pick. For someone who bets in the $55-$330 range, a $600 bet is a bit of a step up, but I was trying to make hay when I thought I had an edge.

But if I am going to tweet about the good times, I might as well share the bad, too.


The funny thing is, when this pick fell flat on its face, I felt worse about giving out a loser in the column than I did about losing $600.Which is probably why I don’t think I’ll pursue becoming a paid capper for a living – letting people down bothers me too much.

I’ve still got the best record in the column, and I’ve received dozens of supportive emails from folks who enjoy my work and want to see me finish ahead of the other guys. That’s great, but I also inevitably hear from a naysayer or two when I give out a loser, which comes with the territory.

Anyhow, here’s what went through my mind as Les Miles and his players happily piled it on hapless Auburn: I think the gift card I need to pick up for the 10th birthday of my friend’s son just went from three figures to two, and so much for the iPad I was thinking about splurging on so I could play more late-night Scrabble games with my Russian friend Kropett. And how many blogs am I going to have to write to make up for this “lock”?  

Times are tight, and this is real money. Forget for a moment that I won $100 on my three other college picks – Michigan State +7.5, Bowling Green +14 and Southern Miss -3 – because booking a $300 loser is still a bad day in my world. Although I’d have gladly lost $300 more if I could have given out a winner in the column.

People who know me understand how seriously I take giving out winning information, and how much it hurts when I release a loser. But that doesn’t stop some of them from piling on the misery.

I have one “friend” who can’t help himself. After games like Saturday’s, he’ll leave me a note on Facebook, something to the effect of, “Woopsy for you on Auburn. I knew LSU was the play, but didn’t want to you to feel bad about it.”

Like this comment makes me feel better? This is a guy who bets $5 2-teamers for action, and his other pick probably lost. But I resist the temptation for a snarky response.

However, at some point I intend to tell him the following: Whenever my picks lose, a) nobody feels worse about it than me, b) rest assured I lost real money on the pick and c) guaranteed I lost more than you did if you played the pick, or what you won by fading it. In other words, buzz off.

But that’s for another time. I had to lick my wounds Saturday night and get ready to try and recoup some money Sunday from the NFL, which usually isn’t my specialty, However, this weekend there were more games than usual that I liked.


I put down straight bets on the games I liked the most – Texans +3.5, Jets +2 and Chiefs +3.5 – and also did a teaser with these picks. For the heck of it, I put these picks and a couple more I liked on a $40, 5-teamer just in case.

Long-story short, I nailed all of them, and this story has a happy ending. I might go browsing for iPads tonight as my Scrabble opponent eagerly awaits more action, and my friend’s son will receive a nice gift from me in the mail, though it’s going to arrive a couple of days later than I expected.

When you’re a grinder, stories like these don’t always come with a storybook conclusion. It’s just that you don’t see as many tweets and blogs about the dark days, so I figured I might as well share the other side of the story.
10 comments
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RoagBettor says:
10/25/11 02:36PM
Why would you buy a 1/2 point on a line of 21 (that you recommended at 22.5)?
Josh_Nagel says:
10/25/11 02:53PM
Roag, thanks for reading and good point. What happened was, my pick for the column was due Wednesday morning. At that time, you could find Auburn at +22.5 or even +23 in some places. LSU announced its suspensions the next day, and that shaved the number down to 21 in most spots.

Unfortunately, I didn't get around to betting the pick until after the suspensions, so I took what I could get and decided to buy off the 21. But evidently a ticket with Auburn at +22.5 or +23 would have been worth just as much as the one I ended up with. Good luck to you.

ScottLandau says:
10/25/11 03:32PM
Josh I like your column. I am another pro capper that is still learning [for 28 years]. I have my moments but I still throw money away. And that's why I logged in to tell you one thing I do know. If the next 100 times you see a 21 point Dog you like and you DON'T BUY the Hook you will have more money in your pocket after those 100 bets than if you do buy it. That Dog will lose by 21 maybe twice if you're lucky.
Josh_Nagel says:
10/25/11 03:55PM
Scott, Thanks for your note. I find it interesting that you and Roag both commented on me buying the hook in that bet. For the most part, I rarely buy points for just the reason you mentioned, that in the long haul you are costing yourself money. In this specific game, I think I feel I was "owed" value because the line moved against me after the LSU suspensions. I decided if LSU won 35-14, that I wanted to cash a ticket instead of getting a refund. Obviously, all I did was cost myself another $50.

Thanks for your feedback and good luck to you.

ScottLandau says:
10/25/11 05:01PM
Josh I actually have a worse habit. I have 6 Outs, local and offshore. I have 1 guy who will move lines a point if he has heavy one-sided action. So I'll give him his cold side and then go buy 1/2 point on the other Side with a different Out.

Last night is an example. I was going to bet 330/300 on JAX +10. This guy went to 11. So instead I bet him 1100/1000 +11, and bought -9.5 -120, 840/700 at 5Dimes. So instead of collecting 300 I only walked away with 160. But I can't help it sometimes. I've got Middle Fever :-)

Josh_Nagel says:
10/26/11 01:29AM
Scott, LOL, I guess that is a worse habit. I rarely try for middles unless I get something absurd like -3.5 to +7 in a football game, which does happen once every blue moon. The more likely middle I'll take is on a second-half bet.

Let's say I have a +14 dog and the game is tied at half, and the favorite is -7 in the 2nd half. I'll jump on the 7-point middle every time, but I'm not a middle hunter. But hey, we all have our crutch, right?

Take care my friend.

ScottLandau says:
10/26/11 05:41PM
Hey it works out sometimes. I made a killing 2 years ago taking the SF Giants - the Money Line AND their opponent +1.5 Runs in all their Home games. I was laying odds both ways but they kept winning by a run! In Football & NBA I've hit quite a few. That's why I can't quit it.

Josh if you ever get 3.5 and 7 in the same football game on the same day ONE OF THOSE GUYS is at the airport :-)

RoagBettor says:
10/26/11 06:08PM
My philosophy is if you feel the need to buy points, you might as well just take the other side.
Josh_Nagel says:
10/27/11 03:42AM
Point well-taken, Roag. The lesson being, with the clarity of 20-20 hindsight, that maybe I was trying to talk myself into something in the first place. Good call.
RoagBettor says:
10/27/11 02:23PM
Bingo! You hit the nail on the head. We all do it because it's impossible to factor out the human nature/emotional aspect of betting no matter what (despite what the "science" guys say). I look at losses as a tuition payment, because no matter how long anyone has been doing this they're still getting an education every week! Good luck with your plays.
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