Josh_Nagel's Blog

Posted Friday, March 06, 2009 11:16 PM

Some athletes still don't get it

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There have been a couple of incidents in sports this week that reminded me why I am no longer a metropolitan sportswriter for a living. Basically, if you are around this scene for a while, it starts to kill your soul.

 

You lose your passion for sports, which is why you chose this profession in the first place. You might be surprised to learn that it’s not just the athletes I am talking about … I walked away, by and large, because I got tired of the hypocrisy of the fellow sportswriters.

 

The knock on these guys is that they are freeloaders who live for handouts, and cynics who look for any reason to bash an athlete without ever giving him the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately, I found this stereotype to be true more often than not.

 

It seemed many scribes showed up to ... [More]

Posted Monday, March 02, 2009 11:25 AM

Overconfidence killed this cat

There’s an old sports axiom, courtesy of John Wooden, that states, “Never mistake activity for achievement.”   This remains in sports lexicon – and found its way there in the first place – because of one Bill Walton, the free-spirited, peace-seeking redhead who went from UCLA All-American to oft-injured NBA journeyman to ultra-bold and super new-agey NBA analyst.   He never misses a chance to pay homage to the nearly 100-year-old legendary coach by repeating this mantra.   We won’t hold this against him, because bashing such a time-honored motto would be horrribbble … quite possibly the worst idea in the history of Western civilization.   But we are going to twist it just a little bit to illustrate an analogy. In sports betting parlance, a similar motto might read, “Never mistake momentum for knowledge.”   In the past few weeks, I’ve witnessed a couple of examples illustrating that failure to acknowledge this truth can be quite costly.   We’ll get to me in a minute. The first example was a recent contestant on “Who Wants to be a Millionaire,” whose fatal gaffe was borderline tragic, simply because it didn’t need to happen.   There was an extremely sharp, late 50ish woman from San Francisco in the hot seat, and she immediately ran off about eight answers in a row without even thinking. Of course, most players are bound to get the first couple right, but this woman’s swift and confident answers as the difficulty increased s... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 18, 2009 12:38 AM

Clem and Wisky -- The similarities never end

Do you ever find it interesting how seemingly unrelated dynamics in sports sometimes seem inexplicably connected? Me, too.

Let’s take a look at two prime examples that come to mind; football and basketball at both Clemson and Wisconsin.

Specific to the schools, these programs are mirror images of each other. Clemson loves to over-recruit and underachieve, and they have kept this time-honored tradition in a resounding fashion this season.

The Tigers’ maddening inconsistency on the football field this year finally cost Tommy Bowden his job. This led the player most responsible for his departure, woefully inept quarterback Cullen Harper, to comment that Bowden “got what he deserved.” Nice.

Clemson had the opportunity to hire an experienced assistant or recruit a high-profile coach to turns things around. Of course, they did neither. Instead, the “brain trusts” there hired the world’s first 40-year-old frat boy, assistant Dabo Swinney, whose enthusiasm appears unflappable, but evidently it isn’t contagious.

Swinney “earned” the job by leading Clemson to a couple of wins, including over rival South Carolina, Upon being named head coach, he promptly watched Harper and friends return to form by blowing a huge lead against an inferior Nebraska team and ringing in the New Year with another inexplicable loss. Evidently, Swinney is big on keeping school traditions alive.

As is coach Oliver Purnell and the men’s basketball team, whic... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 01, 2009 02:47 PM

Top 10 Super Bowl forum headlines

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One thing you can always count on about forum posts is that there will never be any shortage of debate topics.

 

The range of subjects available from which to opine never ceases to amuse me, but in the week leading up to the Super Bowl, our trusty bloggers have stepped their game to another level.

 

In their honor, here is a Top 10 list of best headlines for Super Bowl forum posts seen this week:

 

10. Don’t believe everything you read

 

9. Some of you are only kidding yourselves

 

8. Let’s see who guesses best

 

7. I want to bet Arizona but I can’t get anyone to take my credit card charge online

 

6. Can anyone find this Anheuser Busch prop?

 

5. Thoughts on the National Anthem over

 

4. I am 85% wrong so fade my picks

 

3. “Born in the USA,” understand it before you bet on it

 

2. Why the hell is blue Gatorade -130?

 

1. Is tails really a lock?

... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 29, 2009 01:27 AM

Long shot Super Bowl props

One of my favorite all-time Super Bowl bets is one that I lost. This is because the paper it’s printed on helped me win, metaphorically speaking.


Well, sort of.

The bet is about 5 years old, and yet I still have the slip to this day. I take a look at it once in a while because it features some words I find both amusing and partly inspiring.

Those words are: “Yes, there will be.” This is the only text on the betting slip.

Sports books offer all sorts of long-shot proposition bets on the Super Bowl, and this was one of them. You see, no Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime, and rarely has there been a successful two-point conversion or a safety. Thus, they offer long odds on each proposition.

I was betting on the safety at a whopping price of 8-to-1. Not that I had any logical reason to believe one would occur, but it would give me sort of an eclectic rooting interest and hey, for $10, the potential payout wasn’t bad.

But clearly the oddsmakers were betting big that nothing would happen. In fact, “No, there won’t be” was the whopping 1-to-10 favorite.

I never understood why they didn’t just print something more straightforward such as, “Safety +800” on the ticket. Evidently they weren’t into economizing, yet didn’t have room to explain the whole bet, so they went simply with “Yes, there will be.”   

Of ... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 24, 2009 03:20 PM

Tennesse vs. Memphis

I've got the Vols in this one and the set-up seems almost perfect. Tennessee can be maddeningly erratic, too turnover prone and suspect to more-than-suspect defense. (Yes, the case for betting ON them is still to come).

Their overall unpredictability reminds me a lot of another team -- Memphis.

John Calipari's squad has struggled against the weak Conference USA competition despite finding ways to pull these games out. It just seems that Tennessee plays its best ball under Bruce Pearl just when critics have decided to write them off.

So it's Vols -2.5 ... we'll see if I am right.



Posted Saturday, January 24, 2009 01:22 AM

Margarito/Mosley

Don't be surprised to see Sugar Shane Mosley give an outstanding effort in this one. Even though he is past his prime age-wise and has lost a few of his major recent fights, he is still a viable draw for major networks because he never fails to give a good showing. He was extremely competitive against Miguel Cotto and should be considered a live underdog in this one. If Margarito takes him for granted, he could be in for a surprise.

You have to think Mosley is worth a look here for some significant value. He is getting +320 at legendz.com and he is bound ot givbe you a good sweat for the money.
 



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