KChingon's Blog

Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 10:37 PM

Week 6

Last Week:  6 - 10, - 4 unitsSeason:  22 - 19 - 2 , +2.9 units
Week 5 was rough, and I probably forced a lot of bets where I didn't see anything great.  A few games jumped out at me right away this week.
Week 6AFA (-10) vs. Navy- I know these two have played close games, but AFA is clearly the more talented team and Navy is awful.Iowa State (+12) @ TCU (2 Units)- I don't get this line at all.  TCU has been far from stellar on offense since they lost their top RB (yes, I know, they've turned it over in the red zone 5 times), and Iowa State has a very solid defense and a ball-control offense.  I think they have a good chance at winning this outright.Texas Tech (+5) vs. Oklahoma- Tech has won the last 3 in Lubbock and they won in Norman last year.  I know Tech's defense is not #1 in the country, but they are decent, and Oklahoma has been unimpressive this year.  I think it continues with this game.
Looks/Leans:Clemson (-10.5) vs. GA Tech - I might wait to see if this one gets to single digits, but I will probably grab it if it doesn't look like that's going to happen.East Carolina (+14) @ UCFIndiana (+14.5) vs. Michigan State- I don't know that Michigan State can score enough to cover this.  BC (-9.5) @ Army- BC was not bad at all this weekend, but Army has also looked a little better the last couple of games.Northwestern (+3.5) @ PSU- PSU has looked strong lately, but Northwestern can score.Texas A&M (-9.5) @ Mississippi- I m... [More]

Posted Tuesday, September 11, 2012 10:56 PM

Week 3

I've been lurking on the CFB forum for a couple of years and finally decided to post.    
All bets are 1 unit unless noted:
Texas Tech (-33.5) vs. UNM (3 units)-  Starting my first post by eating this much chalk is probably silly, but Tech covered this number easily at UNM last year, they are better on both sides of the ball this year, and they can still score quickly.  I know UNM eats a lot of clock with their new offense, and I know they ran for 200 yards last week against Texas, but they still didn't score or penetrate beyond the 29 yard line.  Texas also runs the ball a ton and rarely runs up the score, and they still had time to throw up 40+.  I think Tech wins this one by at least 40.
UCLA (-17) vs. Houston (2 units)-  More chalk!  UCLA is apparently up and Houston is way down and playing even less defense than usual.  This is a west coast night game that will end about midnight Houston time.  The last time UH went to LA, they lost by 18, and they were already behind by that number when Keenum went down.  They are a shadow of their last few teams, and UCLA is stronger and can throw up some points.  LA Tech was also up 21 at Houston last week with about 6 minutes to go in the 4th.  I don't think the garbage time TD's will come as easily this week.
Wake Forest (+28) @ Florida State- This is probably just an overreaction to the fact that I've taken FSU for the last few years and lost.  This g... [More]

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