KeyElement's Blog

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 12:34 PM

Friends, Enemies, Ugly Critters And Other Micreants

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That should just about cover everyone that will read this.

While the rest of you were downing a six pack and watching the HRD I was busy as hell doing what I do, computing probability. So, the balance of the season looks like this, complete with final standings and playoff projections.

AL East

Yankees 92-70, Rays 83-79, Blue Jays 81-81, Orioles 80-82, Red Sox 79-83

AL Central

White Sox 87-75, Tigers 84-78, Indians 85-80, Royals 74-88, Twins 72-90

AL West

Rangers 91-71, Angels 88-74, A’s 81-81, Mariners 72-90

Wild Card – Angels over Rays

LDS – Rangers over White Sox

LDS – Yankees over Angels

LCS – Yankees over Rangers

NL East

Nationals 90-72, Mets 87-75, Braves 84-78, Marlins 79-83, Phillies 75-87

NL Central

Pirates 87-75, Reds 85-77, Cardinals 84-78, Brewers 80-82, Cubs 72-90 Astros 70-92

NL West

Giants 85-77, Dodgers 84-78, Diamondbacks 80-82, Padres 71-91, Rockies 69-93

Wild Card – Mets over Reds

LDS – Nationals over Dodgers

LDS - &nb... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 07:52 PM

The American League East

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League East

I have saved the most popular division in MLB for last as it will also be the most controversial opinion I have. We must never forget that surprises are not the exception in baseball, they are the rule. Just about the time you feel things will never change, they do, and very suddenly. In sports wagering we have to be ahead of the curve, never behind it, that is only for trend players. How many of us can say their pre season pick to go all the way the last two years were the Giants and Cardinals? How many can honestly say that their pick in the playoffs was the second place team from the “weak” NL Central that had one of their top guns on the DL? So, here we go, genius or idiot I can live with, but don’t use either term before the season is played, OK?

5. Baltimore Orioles. Inept, dysfunctional franchise that ranks right up there with Pirates and Cubs. MLB should create a sixth division so the three of them can get together and pretend they are MLB teams when they beat each other. Pathetic, bu... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 05:38 PM

The American League Central

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League Central

The two Central Divisions in MLB can be real moneymakers if one is watching closely. Less popularity equals less public support and more reasonable lines. Just as I felt the NL Central was divided into two groups (shame on you if you didn’t read it), I feel this division is divided into three. Tigers at the top, Twins at the bottom, and the three in the middle competitive as hell, especially versus each other.

5. Minnesota Twins. Mauer and Morneau are the nucleus of a respectable offense, when they are in there and not on the DL. The real problem is that the starting staff has been overvalued and continues to decline. The names look good on the backs of their jerseys and the opinion of most folks is that this is a good if not spectacular group. I like the names myself but the performances and skill sets simply aren’t there. At this time I rate Baker the best of the bunch and rank him only 1.4 percentage points above average. I see a troublesome future for the Twins ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 04:00 PM

The American League West

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League West

This is certainly not the toughest division to write up and it may not be next year when Houston replaces Seattle at the bottom, but what the hell, I have some notes and opinions worthy of the time it takes to read them, so let’s go.

4. Seattle Mariners. You have heard of Spahn and Sain and pray for rain? Seattle is rainy country all right but there will be never be enough rain to get by on only one top gun starter. Felix Hernandez looks primed for another run at the Cy Young but if he gets it he may get it with only 13 to 15 wins. This team gives a whole new definition to the term rebuilding. Kevin Millwood may give them a steady hand (are you listening Baltimore?) but his best days are past and I show surprisingly low skill set numbers for the balance of the staff. The only good news regarding the M’s is that they may draw some really respectable dog odds since the entire betting public hates them, and unders should be a given when Hernandez or Millwood take the ball at home. 

<... [More]

Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 10:16 PM

The National League East Division

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The National League East

Why not post them up in the opposite order packers1992 did and save the best, and most controversial, for last? I like the idea so that is what I am doing.

5. New York Mets. I hate to over use a phrase but the Mets run a close second to the Pirates for dysfunctional franchise. If they ever get any organizational management and capital in there at least they have the fan base to soak while they return to respectability. There really is no good reason to review their probability and I will get off their collective backs with “good luck with your comeback, Johan.”

4. Miami Marlins. A flurry of moves in the off season for the new park, new names, new uniforms and eternal optimism. I only have to imagine Josh Johnson going on the extended DL and the rest of it won’t make diddly squat of a difference. This team needs (badly) a stud ace at the front of the rotation and the loss of him would only provide the excuses for a downhill roll. Before you jump in my crap I will tell you flat out tha... [More]

Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 06:46 PM

The National League West

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The National League West

5. Colorado Rockies. I have no idea what they plan to do with this team, other than disregard this year and build for the future. The trading of Ubaldo Jimenez was an indicator of that. If you are building for next year, you don’t get rid of your ace. If you are thinking long term in the rebuilding mode you do. In years past vwe have seen the Rockies win at home and get beat on the road, which many folks may think is the normal course of things, but baseball has very little true home field advantage and the Rockies last year were a disaster both home and road.

4. San Diego Padres. Yes, the Padres will finish ahead of the Rockies in a division neither one of them stands a snowballs chance in hell of winning. Unlike the Rockies though, their rebuilding program has been in place longer and has a little clearer aim to it. For betting purposes you may want to remember that the Padres are a better offensive team on the road than they would appear to be from their overall stats, which ... [More]

Posted Monday, August 01, 2011 09:44 AM

5 Inning Discussion Thread, Monday 8-1-11

Well, another day, another dollar, right? Let's get er on



Posted Thursday, August 12, 2010 11:53 AM

More USEFUL Information For Novices

Several guys have said they are new to baseball wagering this year and are looking for helpful hints, so here is something for them to consider, possibly start a folder and store things like this for further study as they progress. Hope you all enjoy it.

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There are 3 accepted schools of thought on baseball odds wagering and the argument for the best has been going on since time immemorial and will continue long after most of us are gone. The three basic concepts are:

 

1) Lay the juice with favorites, flat play the dogs. Undoubtedly the most commonly accepted, although most players learned that method from their dads, uncles, older brothers or bookies and have no real evidence to prove it is correct. Say the line on the favorite is -150. Most players will either play $150 to make $100 or play $100 on the dog to make $140. Although adjusting his lay figure on favorites, he makes no allowance of a similar nature for his underdogs.

 

2) Flat play all wagers. This player would bet $100 on the side he liked, accepting a profit of $66.67 on his risk if he likes the favorite and that favorite wins, and a profit of $140 on the dog if that is his choice and the dog wins. He accepts that he needs the winner (either way) and just because one side is favored does not mean ... [More]

Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 04:50 PM

Just My Humble Opinion You Understand,

but as far as I can tell noone kept up with the 5 Inning Discussion Thread during my ill fated trip so perhaps it is best to let it die a natural death. If someone else wants to revive it, be my guest. I will be glad to contribute but will do my own thing separately, as I plan to venture back into some 9 inning calls anyway.

Today's contribution IS a 5 INNING PLAY. Better point that out since this is no longer a strictly 5 inning contribution.

Rockies +114 Hammel / Arroyo

These two look reasonably comparable on paper and in the standings but one needs to realize the Reds have played 44.5% of their games in their very own NL Central Division and have won 62.5% (25-15) of those games. There are only 2 of 6 teams in the division that are winners and the Reds are one of them. The Rockies hail from the far tougher division, the NL Central, where 4 of the 5 teams are winners. Most folks would never handicap a football or basketball game over half way through the season without considering strength of schedule, but it is just as applicable in MLB as anywhere else. That gives me higher ratings and hence, a better prospectus for both Hammel and the Rockies offense versus Arroyo and the Reds offense. Arroyo has looked good lately but is making no more strides than the undervalued Hammel, who has raised his season k/bb ratio from an impressive 3:1 for the season to 4:1 his past 3 starts and has turned... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 09, 2010 04:07 PM

Free Tuesday

1. All Tuesday's plays are free.
2. Documnted Results
www. RudyNYCSports.com
or
www.ProSportsMonitor.com

24-9 NBA Run and 11-0 Streak in progress

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NBA 

 

Bucks -8 over Pistons

 

It may not seem possible but the Pistons current form and season prospectus have both dropped down there in the gutter right alongside the Nets. They may only finish higher than the Nets because they got off to a little better start, but from here to the bitter, bitter end they may not win any more games than the Nets. They really don’t do anything very well and are currently projected to score only 89.2 ppg and lose by 5.7 versus an average NBA team (proprietary numbers and formulas of course). The Bucks are the diametrically opposed opposite with far better projections, 101.5 and +6.5 versus an average NBA team. All things considered I see this one Bucks 104-86.

 

Jazz -5 over Clippers

 

Same scene, different venue. There is simply no comparison of the way these two teams are playing or are headed. The Clippers seemed to lose heart and function when it was determined Blake Griffin would not play at all this year. The Jazz continue to play very hard and very well, even through the time they had to make it wi... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 03, 2009 10:12 AM

Key's NBA for Tuesday 11-3

NBA: YTD 6-4, + 2.05 units, ROI 19%

 

716 Dallas Mavericks -5.5 over 716 Utah Jazz

 

Both teams had numbers that concerned me when I came up with my initial power ratings for this season. Dallas was suspiciously high and Utah suspiciously low. When the Mavericks dropped their home opener to the Wizards it caught my attention. but I have found that was more of an inspired Wizards team than any over valuing of the Mavericks. They are what my numbers indicated they were and they will be a contender in the West. We would like to have Gooden, Thomas and Howard tonight but the acquisition of Marion has really been a wise move by the Mavericks and his abilities at both ends of the court are going to pay dividends sooner rather than later. The Jazz missing players are more of a problem for them, both tonight and in the foreseeable future. With Korver, Miles and Harpring out indefinitely they have very little bench strength and all five starters went 34 minutes plus in last night’s home loss to the Rockets. That was an up and down the court fast paced game (209) and coming from altitude to play a back to back with the Mavericks will be hard on the legs.

 

I will probably have another tonight but all lines are not... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 31, 2008 08:10 AM

New Year's Resolution for ALL of Us

I (insert your name) will NO LONGER respond to ignorant, idiot or sore loser posts.
 
Nothing personal but the one below by ShamMan is a perfect example. He is just ranting over a bad bet, so why aggravate the situation and accomadate him by REPEATEDLY MOVING A DUMB ASS POST TO THE TOP OF THE BOARD?
 
Let it die. OK?
 
If you want to do some good around here make the pledge and keep moving this post up until everyone has seen it.
 
If we all do that then the senseless posts will die very quickly and not be a distraction as we seriously discuss the days games, OK? Please!
 
No offense ShamMan, you are probably over it by now anyway. Please take the pledge yourself.
 


Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 06:40 AM

1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THURSDAY

Toot: Another 2 dogs win outright in the first quarter BUT; I have an apology to make. You guys know I post elsewhere and the evidence is available, so I will confess I played the Pacers and Kings in the first quarter last night as short favorites and cashed both for a 4-0 sweep on the night. Blame MrO if you like, he is the one that sent me back to puppies only. As I have said before the numbers are getting very strong very early in the season, so from now on the same thing goes up at both sites, dogs, favorites, unders and overs, makes no difference. I will make them available. Whether or not anyone plays all or gets selective and picks and chooses what he agrees with is his own business. Your money, your choice.  
 
That being said let's get with it for today. As short as the card is I may have nothing, but will try to be available for consultation, discussion and conversation. GL2All, Cya later.


Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2008 08:00 AM

1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR WEDNESDAY

Looks like a pretty good night overall and I think we can pick up some steam now that,
 
1. MrOPC and JEG are out of jail
2. Norse FINALLY noticed what we are up to (a little dense?) lol
3. All teams are at 5 or more games with several at 8 and when all hit 10 games played my numbers get even better. At 10 games all teams have true form and it doesn't matter who has not played each other because all the numbers become interlinked anyway. By Christmas I expect MrOPC to offer me new computer goodies, anything I want, since he will be doing some serious bankroll building for his first love, 5 inning baseball.
 
Utah and Atlanta were very encouraging last night, taking the cash as moneyline dogs, Quarter, Half and Game, clean sweep.
 
Let's get going. My numbers are in the machine and I am just waiting on lines.


Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2008 07:53 AM

1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR TUESDAY

I may have been one of the biggest winners on this or any other board last night simply by not playing. All 5 road dogs won the first quarter outright or plus points, all 5 won the first half straight up or plus points, and all 5 covered or won outright for the evening. Hmm.    Being the dog player I am I see nothing unreal about that nor do I feel laying a lot of points with a lot of favorites is productive. It' just life. Of all professional sports the NBA has the greatest pool of players to draw from, worldwide talent and it only takes 12 guys each for thirty teams. On any given day, any one team can beat any other. Dogs plus points or on the moneyline will be my future picks and if I have to take a few days off so be it. When faced with the evidence, return to your roots.   1st Quarter Plays   Utah + Yes, I am aware Okur is out (family leave) but the differrences in the two teams go much deeper than that and I like the Jazz coming off an ass whipping at New York.   Atlanta + The Hawks have been everything I expected so far this year and put some nice cash in my wallet. While the rest of world waits for them to implode I am going to ride them until I see a reason not to, and I ain't seen it yet.   I will try to make it back when the lines open and I can quote what I got, points or moneyline. Cya later, Good Luck. ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 04, 2008 07:29 AM

NBA - FIRST HALF DISCUSSION THREAD - TUESDAY

Friends: As most of you know by now MrOPC has been sent to the penalty box and via his post there has informed us he has no intention of returning to Covers. It is my sincere hope both Covers management and MrOPC will reconsider. I did not view all the posts involved but there did seem to be enough evidence that time in the penalty box was warranted and justifiable. OK. So be it.

 

This year's political race has been one of the most passionate and divisive ever. The issues are compelling and most folks believe we can not afford to be wrong. In the heat of debate things sometimes degenerate and at some point in our lives all of us have been in the position of having said things we probably should not have and probably wouldn't had we simply put our words together and then reviewed them 24 hours later, when the heat and passion of the moment have passed.

 

Today is Election Day and the winners will cheer, but hopefully they will remember that their period of power may be as short as two years, when a new congress will be elected and could be of a different mindset of the one that gets elected today. Whether or not your chosen side succeeds today could become irrelevant just that quickly, without the dire results so many fear if the "right" (mine) side doesn't control Washington, D.C.

 

Person... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 16, 2008 04:53 PM

Rays @ Red Sox - JMHO

Regardless of how much someone is arrogant and belligerent and refers to his picks as "Locks" or "100,000 Dime" or "Game of the Day, Week, Month, Year, Decade, Century or Millennium" all you are getting is his opinion. Most are not really very humble, but I will try to remain so.   IMHO - Maddon is taking a big chance tonight and it could backfire and cause him  to watch the World Series on TV from his easy chair instead of one of the benches in St. Petersburg or Philadelphia.   The Red Sox have THE very best projections versus a lefty pitcher in all of MLB at this time. By tossing a cold lefty like Kazmir at Fenway he is almost conceding this game in favor of a small perceived edge he thinks he will have with Shields at home on Saturday. At this point in time he has no control over what happens Saturday and can, realistically, play only to win today's game. Starting Kazmir tonight is akin to saying "we are going to NEED Shields Saturday. This is a matter of a manager going cerebral and trying too hard to think his way into the World Series instead of letting his team play their way in, with the very best they can put on the field. By now, if Maddon were supremely cerebral, Kazmir would be the "odd man out", the one the BoSox are most likely to beat, and therefore, out of the rotation.     Rarely does a baseball manager do anything that can be remotely regarded as genius. Most play "by the book" because that is the best way to pre... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 01, 2008 08:17 AM

Paging Mr OPC - Paging Mr OPC - Come In Please

No thread to start the day? Well since my day is going to be very busy and I may not make it back, I will put it up here and you can copy and paste if you want.   5 Innings / Listed Pitchers   Dodgers +137 Lowe / Dempster   Both guys had admirable seasons but Lowe is even better at keeping the ball down and in the park than Dempster. With a 3.27 to 1 SO/W ratio and 2.35 to 1 GB/FB ratio he can keep his outfielders bored and his team in the game for a long time. Now add the "Manny" factor. The Dodgers got both better and looser after the Manny acqusition and can conyinue to play that way. Manny, love him or hate him, is a guy who has "been there, done that" and has no fear of the playoffs. He is the perfect guy to put the offense on his back and carry them. IMHO, this could be the deciding factor in the Cubs hopes of a World Series title. We don't know who comes out of the A.L., but I think the Cubs match up much better versus the Phillies or Brewers than they do against the Dodgers. This game is more critical for the Cubs than any other 1st round playoff matchup and I think they drew the wrong team on the wrong day.   I also have to like the UNDER, provided it comes out at no less than 7 for the game and 4 for the first 5 innings. Working with a computer you get some impossible numbers but rounded off I see no more than 2 runs the first 5 innings and no more than six runs total for the game. Good pitching domoinates good hitting and ... [More]

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User: KeyElement
Joined: December 2007
Location: Arizona
Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Occupation: Other

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