5 Inning Discussion Thread, Monday 8-1-11

Well, another day, another dollar, right? Let's get er on

More USEFUL Information For Novices

Several guys have said they are new to baseball wagering this year and are looking for helpful hints, so here is something for them to consider, possibly start a folder and store things like this for further study as they progress. Hope you all enjoy it.

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There are 3 accepted schools of thought on baseball odds wagering and the argument for the best has been going on since time immemorial and will continue long after most of us are gone. The three basic concepts are:

 

1) Lay the juice with favorites, flat play the dogs. Undoubtedly the most commonly accepted, although most players learned that method from their dads, uncles, older brothers or bookies and have no real evidence to prove it is correct. Say the line on the favorite is -150. Most players will either play $150 to make $100 or play $100 on the dog to make $140. Although adjusting his lay figure on favorites, he makes no allowance of a similar nature for his underdogs.

 

2) Flat play all wagers. This player would bet $100 on the side he liked, accepting a profit of $66.67 on his risk if he likes the favorite and that favorite wins, and a profit of $140 on the dog if that is his choice and the dog wins. He accepts that he needs the winner (either way) and just because one side is favored does not mean ... [More]

Just My Humble Opinion You Understand,

but as far as I can tell noone kept up with the 5 Inning Discussion Thread during my ill fated trip so perhaps it is best to let it die a natural death. If someone else wants to revive it, be my guest. I will be glad to contribute but will do my own thing separately, as I plan to venture back into some 9 inning calls anyway.

Today's contribution IS a 5 INNING PLAY. Better point that out since this is no longer a strictly 5 inning contribution.

Rockies +114 Hammel / Arroyo

These two look reasonably comparable on paper and in the standings but one needs to realize the Reds have played 44.5% of their games in their very own NL Central Division and have won 62.5% (25-15) of those games. There are only 2 of 6 teams in the division that are winners and the Reds are one of them. The Rockies hail from the far tougher division, the NL Central, where 4 of the 5 teams are winners. Most folks would never handicap a football or basketball game over half way through the season without considering strength of schedule, but it is just as applicable in MLB as anywhere else. That gives me higher ratings and hence, a better prospectus for both Hammel and the Rockies offense versus Arroyo and the Reds offense. Arroyo has looked good lately but is making no more strides than the undervalued Hammel, who has raised his season k/bb ratio from an impressive 3:1 for the season to 4:1 his past 3 starts and has turned... [More]

Rays @ Red Sox - JMHO

Regardless of how much someone is arrogant and belligerent and refers to his picks as "Locks" or "100,000 Dime" or "Game of the Day, Week, Month, Year, Decade, Century or Millennium" all you are getting is his opinion. Most are not really very humble, but I will try to remain so.   IMHO - Maddon is taking a big chance tonight and it could backfire and cause him  to watch the World Series on TV from his easy chair instead of one of the benches in St. Petersburg or Philadelphia.   The Red Sox have THE very best projections versus a lefty pitcher in all of MLB at this time. By tossing a cold lefty like Kazmir at Fenway he is almost conceding this game in favor of a small perceived edge he thinks he will have with Shields at home on Saturday. At this point in time he has no control over what happens Saturday and can, realistically, play only to win today's game. Starting Kazmir tonight is akin to saying "we are going to NEED Shields Saturday. This is a matter of a manager going cerebral and trying too hard to think his way into the World Series instead of letting his team play their way in, with the very best they can put on the field. By now, if Maddon were supremely cerebral, Kazmir would be the "odd man out", the one the BoSox are most likely to beat, and therefore, out of the rotation.     Rarely does a baseball manager do anything that can be remotely regarded as genius. Most play "by the book" because that is the best way to pre... [More]

Paging Mr OPC - Paging Mr OPC - Come In Please

No thread to start the day? Well since my day is going to be very busy and I may not make it back, I will put it up here and you can copy and paste if you want.   5 Innings / Listed Pitchers   Dodgers +137 Lowe / Dempster   Both guys had admirable seasons but Lowe is even better at keeping the ball down and in the park than Dempster. With a 3.27 to 1 SO/W ratio and 2.35 to 1 GB/FB ratio he can keep his outfielders bored and his team in the game for a long time. Now add the "Manny" factor. The Dodgers got both better and looser after the Manny acqusition and can conyinue to play that way. Manny, love him or hate him, is a guy who has "been there, done that" and has no fear of the playoffs. He is the perfect guy to put the offense on his back and carry them. IMHO, this could be the deciding factor in the Cubs hopes of a World Series title. We don't know who comes out of the A.L., but I think the Cubs match up much better versus the Phillies or Brewers than they do against the Dodgers. This game is more critical for the Cubs than any other 1st round playoff matchup and I think they drew the wrong team on the wrong day.   I also have to like the UNDER, provided it comes out at no less than 7 for the game and 4 for the first 5 innings. Working with a computer you get some impossible numbers but rounded off I see no more than 2 runs the first 5 innings and no more than six runs total for the game. Good pitching domoinates good hitting and ... [More]