but as far as I can tell noone kept up with the 5 Inning Discussion Thread during my ill fated trip so perhaps it is best to let it die a natural death. If someone else wants to revive it, be my guest. I will be glad to contribute but will do my own thing separately, as I plan to venture back into some 9 inning calls anyway.

Today's contribution IS a 5 INNING PLAY. Better point that out since this is no longer a strictly 5 inning contribution.

Rockies +114 Hammel / Arroyo

These two look reasonably comparable on paper and in the standings but one needs to realize the Reds have played 44.5% of their games in their very own NL Central Division and have won 62.5% (25-15) of those games. There are only 2 of 6 teams in the division that are winners and the Reds are one of them. The Rockies hail from the far tougher division, the NL Central, where 4 of the 5 teams are winners. Most folks would never handicap a football or basketball game over half way through the season without considering strength of schedule, but it is just as applicable in MLB as anywhere else. That gives me higher ratings and hence, a better prospectus for both Hammel and the Rockies offense versus Arroyo and the Reds offense. Arroyo has looked good lately but is making no more strides than the undervalued Hammel, who has raised his season k/bb ratio from an impressive 3:1 for the season to 4:1 his past 3 starts and has turned in 7 quality starts in his last 8 trips to the hill, the only bad start being versus Boston, a tough night a guy can be forgiven for. The Reds offense is also slumping, with offensive era of just 3.3 runs per 9 innings versus the average right handed starter. The Rockies fair better with an offensive era of 4.6 versus the average righty and those numbers converted to the 5 inning game project the Reds at less than 2.5 runs and the Rockies over 3.5 runs. Those numbers are significant in that half a run is impossible to score, so the obvious projected outcome after 5 is 4-2 Rockies, which coincides very nicely with my projected total of 6.1. Given the nature of the park and both raw offenses I have no objection to the over (line 4.5) but will not call a shot on that without knowing the umpire. I expect a dog fight for the NL West title and expect the Rockies to be right in the thick of it. It is time for the contenders to step forward and my money says the Rockies do that tonight. BOL