Regardless of how much someone is arrogant and belligerent and refers to his picks as "Locks" or "100,000 Dime" or "Game of the Day, Week, Month, Year, Decade, Century or Millennium" all you are getting is his opinion. Most are not really very humble, but I will try to remain so.
IMHO - Maddon is taking a big chance tonight and it could backfire and cause him to watch the World Series on TV from his easy chair instead of one of the benches in St. Petersburg or Philadelphia.
The Red Sox have THE very best projections versus a lefty pitcher in all of MLB at this time. By tossing a cold lefty like Kazmir at Fenway he is almost conceding this game in favor of a small perceived edge he thinks he will have with Shields at home on Saturday. At this point in time he has no control over what happens Saturday and can, realistically, play only to win today's game. Starting Kazmir tonight is akin to saying "we are going to NEED Shields Saturday. This is a matter of a manager going cerebral and trying too hard to think his way into the World Series instead of letting his team play their way in, with the very best they can put on the field. By now, if Maddon were supremely cerebral, Kazmir would be the "odd man out", the one the BoSox are most likely to beat, and therefore, out of the rotation.
Rarely does a baseball manager do anything that can be remotely regarded as genius. Most play "by the book" because that is the best way to preserve their jobs and avoid criticism. Maddon will be congratulated if this works, even if they do have to close it out Saturday behind Shields or, God forbid, Sunday with Garza. He will be forgiven if it doesn't work, as "it was the best he could do with a young and inexperienced team" versus the veteran and oh so powerful Red Sox. But, it is the wrong managerial move, win lose or draw.
Maddon should be like the wolf with a downed and wounded prey. Go for the throat. Don't screw around by getting cerebral. Ballplayers aren't philosophers, physicists or engineers. Hit the ball, catch the ball, run your ass off. K.I.S.S.
That being my humble opinion, I see tonight's game this way.
Red Sox Matsuzaka over Kazmir, 1st 5 and game
Red Sox over 4.5 1st 5 and over 9 for game
Red Sox team total over 4.5
I am actually making only 2 of those plays / over 4.5 1st 5 and Boston team total over 4.5
A line of -150 or more makes Boston mathematically unplayable for me and since I compute them to win the game, Rays are unplayable up to +200, at which point they would become a reasonable "value play"
GL2ALL