KeyElement's Blog

1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR TUESDAY

By KeyElement | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2008 07:53 AM

24 comments

I may have been one of the biggest winners on this or any other board last night simply by not playing. All 5 road dogs won the first quarter outright or plus points, all 5 won the first half straight up or plus points, and all 5 covered or won outright for the evening. Hmm.

Being the dog player I am I see nothing unreal about that nor do I feel laying a lot of points with a lot of favorites is productive. It' just life. Of all professional sports the NBA has the greatest pool of players to draw from, worldwide talent and it only takes 12 guys each for thirty teams. On any given day, any one team can beat any other. Dogs plus points or on the moneyline will be my future picks and if I have to take a few days off so be it. When faced with the evidence, return to your roots.

1st Quarter Plays

Utah +

Yes, I am aware Okur is out (family leave) but the differrences in the two teams go much deeper than that and I like the Jazz coming off an ass whipping at New York.

Atlanta +

The Hawks have been everything I expected so far this year and put some nice cash in my wallet. While the rest of world waits for them to implode I am going to ride them until I see a reason not to, and I ain't seen it yet.

I will try to make it back when the lines open and I can quote what I got, points or moneyline. Cya later, Good Luck.

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LBCWeasie says:

11/11/08 09:05AM

MrOPC says:

11/11/08 11:06AM

Looks like I have been released from purgatory.......

Nice to see you back to doggieland, Key......You said a while ago, in the MLB forum, that you and your trusty computer loved the dogs.....much more value (there's that "V Word" again).....

Time to "tail your doggie"

>>>>envision doggie emoticon here<<<<<

wredskins says:

11/11/08 11:13AM

Spurs-1 1stQ

Without Parker and Manu I still like the Spurs to come out strong tonight knowing they won't be able to play from behind. The Spurs will slow it down tonight to where the Knicks can't get out and run. Finley will have a big 1stQ

Sunbeam says:

11/11/08 12:37PM

Key, like I said in my post yesterday, I totally agree with you that there are more value with dogs in 1Q & 1H since the favorites tend to coast early especially at home then wake up in the 2H.

With Hinrich out and Gooden banged up, I really like Atlanta 1Q and possibly ML for the game. Not sure about Utah with Mehmet and Deron out...

Wredskins, I don't feel comfortable betting on the Spurs at all this season. They are barely above 500 team without Manu, and now without Parker where are points coming from if NY double up Duncan all night??? Also, SA always struggle when they play the Knicks even at full strength.

Sunbeam says:

11/11/08 12:52PM

What seems to work real well for me so far is betting special teaser on "home favs" with spread > 8. Sometime if there is not enough game to tease, then I combine it with CFB and NFL to get a 4 picks tease (9 pts for hoops and 13 pts for foot ball). The pay out is only 1 to 1 with 20% juice, but I figure the chance of winning is > 70%....Food for thoughts....

Sunbeam says:

11/11/08 12:54PM

BTW, welcome back Mr. O - Let's beat the book this season, shall we?

KeyElement says:

11/11/08 02:50PM

Hey! Someone in management had a brain fart and let the old curmudgeon back in! That is probably best. I don't know if it was football, my breath, my deodorant, or my picks but we were dieing around here the last few days. Speaking of various and sundry people being sent to the penalty box, what the heck did JEG do? I thought he was a relatively harmless character myself. I have to admit, though, the threat does keep me on my own toes, minding my p's and q's, when I am tempted to call someone an idiot, sleazeball, scumbag or worse, even if they richly deserve it.

Sunbeam: I think the Jazz have enough quality and energy to win the first quarter versus a slightly over valued 76'ers bunch, even without Okur and Williams. I also think the butt kicking they got at New York serves as early motivation. Someone else must agree as the Jazz are coming down, even on the game line.

backdooor_cover says:

11/11/08 03:29PM

Hey Mr.O your out and back in the conversation. Did you make a jail break or actually released to freedom? Who did you have to pay off?

Just kidding with you.

Anyways on to todays subject at hand. One play that stands out to me right away is Milw 1H +7. Cleveland this year have started games very slow. They win there game but not until the second half. Milw on the other hand will come out strong. Richard Jefferson lights a spark in the team and they come out quick. The problem with the team is they can't hold there lead and blow it in the end. Still needing some experience with each other but will be a good team soon. This team will compete with the knicks for the suprise team this year, as the hawks did last year.

Also loving the hawks as an underdog here. I assume that line makers don't think they can keep up this impressive start. Also im assuming this comes of the last two butt whoopings the bulls have put on teams... like the suns

anyhow haven't made any final decisions but willing to discuss situations with anyone.

backdooor_cover says:

11/11/08 03:34PM

I just realized that we have some college bball as well today. I think im going to make a small play on Duke. Duke from years past always starts the season strong for the first 5 or 6 games. After that they start to struggle or fold. But since this is game two and they didn't cover as a huge favorite last night i will take them tonight.

Duke -16 1H

Also this is for JEG. I don't know where he is but if your reading this its for you. I know im conflicting with wred, but until this loses i will play it. Bucking spurs 1H every game:

Knicks +2.5

KeyElement says:

11/11/08 03:40PM

Make those 1st quarter lines / plays

Utah, pk, +110

Atlanta, +1.5 (but I confess I am playing Atlanta, pk, +123)

KeyElement says:

11/11/08 03:46PM

Mr O; you wanna take back your rightful position of thread starter, menbtor and moderator?

MrOPC says:

11/11/08 04:25PM

Nah, Key..........You start it, I sleep later than you anyway.......

Yeah, they let me out.....There is some major hatred in that politics forum, I used a little too much "George Carlin Cynical Humor".....You know, those "7 words that you can't say?"...I used 6 of them........

PS....Using a local sportsbook here for BKB and cannot get 1Q plays....even 1H are limited...not a full slate....trying to play a little less offshore....gonna limit me a little, play some teasers more...

norseman67 says:

11/11/08 04:30PM

I didn't realize this was a 1st half thread till I was almost through reading.

I'll have to keep an eye on things and stalk this thread - that +7 for MIL looks worth watching.

backdooor_cover says:

11/11/08 06:02PM

well fellas here is todays final card for me. I am riding trains that i dont feel like bucking. I just hope they all dont decide to crash today. Here it is:

Atlanta +2.5 - like you key been on these from the beginning. This is my biggest play since we always do well when both of us are on the same page

Bucks +7

Knicks +2.5

Duke -16

CFB: full game plays

MiamiOh +19

under 55 (bought the hook)

Good luck today fellas... CHOOOCHOOOO

_____

______ ( )

( ) ( )_

( )___( )__

___( )

(___)(___)(___)(____)(___)(___)(___)

[ ]

------------------------------------------[ ]-----------------

]

] >

--O--O--O--O--O------------------------------O--O--O--------->

Don't know if this comes out but i tried to draw a train

JEG53 says:

11/11/08 06:53PM

FREEDOM

Whats up guys,thanks for the visit backdooor in jail,man they are strange people in there.

F-1/4 Utah+1 Atl+1 Milk+4 and O-47.5 for early games.

Also FH over 72.5 in Duke game.

Also will be on NYK in some way,havent got there yet,lol

wredskins says:

11/11/08 07:11PM

Philly-1 1stQ

They've had 5 days off to get ready for tonight.

SAS-1 1stQ

If they don't come out strong they'll never have a chance to win.

Duke-15.5 1st Half

This team is money in the 1st Half......8 in a row to start the year last year and already hit it yesterday.....Look for a better shooting performance tonight from Duke

GL gentlemen

JEG53 says:

11/11/08 07:14PM

I read where D Williams is playing for Utah,thats why I like them also.

KeyElement says:

11/11/08 07:15PM

Must be like the state prisons here in Arizona, so overcrowded they gotta release the least violent early! Welcome back JEG

pingpongfool says:

11/11/08 09:36PM

Welcome Back MrO

Im on pace to 3 -0 tonight with 1 H NCAAB plays

You can see where I posted them on my Covers Space

Basketball - 520 Michigan (1st 10 min) -7 -115 for 1st Half

Basketball - 524 Duke -15½ -115 for 1st Half PENDING

Basketball - 522 Houston U -7 -115 for 1st Half

JEG53 says:

11/11/08 09:50PM

So did Dallas,NYKs and Det-2.5 F-1/4 parley,so Im thinking of hedgeing it a little but Sac.is missing Martin,so tempted to let it go,but Det.has not been great with A.I. so far.

JEG53 says:

11/11/08 07:42PM

Some Moron wanted to know what B.Lang 40 dime bet was on Sat.,so I told him and there you go,on my was to jail,lol

Shit I thought it was a joke that someone would play his lousy plays but if you give out a touts pick away you go.

Utah F-1/4 winner. Milk sucks without Redd I guess but did real well against Boston without him.

backdooor_cover says:

11/11/08 08:20PM

Like i said better to be lucky than good. ill take luck anyday.

Bucks 1H

Also played phi 2H -5

backdooor_cover says:

11/11/08 07:17PM

Hey wred happy to see you are on Duke with me. I guess you noticed the same thing as me with this team.

Philly on 5 days rest gives me the hebbiegebbies. Usually a team with a long rest start off a little rusty and slow. Perfect example was lakers last week against the clippers. Started off slow. Its not until the second half that a rested team comes out strong and dominates. Good luck to you but i am looking to play philly in the 2H.

wredskins says:

11/11/08 07:18PM

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User:	KeyElement
Joined:	December 2007
Location:	Arizona
Team:	Arizona Diamondbacks
Occupation:	Sales/Marketing

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