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1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR WEDNESDAY

By KeyElement | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2008 08:00 AM

30 comments

Looks like a pretty good night overall and I think we can pick up some steam now that,

1. MrOPC and JEG are out of jail

2. Norse FINALLY noticed what we are up to (a little dense?) lol

3. All teams are at 5 or more games with several at 8 and when all hit 10 games played my numbers get even better. At 10 games all teams have true form and it doesn't matter who has not played each other because all the numbers become interlinked anyway. By Christmas I expect MrOPC to offer me new computer goodies, anything I want, since he will be doing some serious bankroll building for his first love, 5 inning baseball.

Utah and Atlanta were very encouraging last night, taking the cash as moneyline dogs, Quarter, Half and Game, clean sweep.

Let's get going. My numbers are in the machine and I am just waiting on lines.

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Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 10:57AM

Thanks Key!!! I won with Atlanta but did not partake in the Utah game. I would have went with Utah if I knew Deron played...LOL...On the other hand, got luck out and swept the second half on Atl, Det, Lakers, and Golden State games.

An FYI - McGrady may not play tonite against PHX. His status is game time decision. Heard it this morning from the GM on the radio interview. Even with McGrady, HOU offense is still not clicking yet IMO, but their defense gets better. Should be a half court game tonite with Yao and Shaq cancelling each other out. I am thinking PHX & under here.

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 11:06AM

Key, are we riding the Atlanta train again today? Bos always starts slow especially on the very first game against any opponent.

MrOPC says:

11/12/08 11:59AM

Woof

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 12:18PM

Sunbeam: Thanks and glad you had a great evening. I am aware of Grady, but am probably going to leave that one alone anyway as MrO's favorite computer says that line is probably pretty accurate, with a lean toward the under. Atlanta? Well, you'll

just have to wait and see. haha.

MrO; Yeah, woof, woof, but did you cash the tickets or just wait to see if I got my crap together again?

Nice card tonight and I will be ready pretty soon.

MrOPC says:

11/12/08 12:23PM

I made my standard ($5) bet........cha ching

Nice to see that you needed me to remind you to only play doggies....leave the faves to the losers....

bluejays99 says:

11/12/08 12:56PM

ATL +3?

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 02:14PM

MrO, you know it is very tense watching the game when picking dog, except for Atlanta and maybe Lakers tonite

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 02:26PM

First Quarter Plays

Atlanta +3

Laying points to an unbeaten team is not wise, no matter who you are, defending champs or not. Might also want to remember it was these same Hawks that took the Celtics to 7 games last year in the first round. Heck, the Lakers couldn't do that in the finals.

Sacramento +2

The Clippers win one (1) freaking game over an overvalued Dallas squad and all of a sudden they are 8 point home favorites? Gimme a break. They are still the Clippers and should never be a favorite over anyone. Yes, the Kings are 0-4 on the road thanks to opening with 4 straight road games in the East. I am much more impressed with the 3-1 home stand they put together immediately after. I know Martin is out. Don't worry about it.

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 02:40PM

so did anyone enjoy my drawing of a train. I know it wasn't no mona lisa but i tried. Anyways that train took me all the way to the bank. Was a nice ride but i think i may be getting off at one stop tonight. That is the Atlanta stop as it is taking a rest at Boston. This is a lot of points for my boys to giving atlanta, but i dont care. This team will come to play and definitely have something to prove against the Hawks.

Will have more in a few.

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 02:50PM

Sunbeam: Two little hints for your handicapping notebook.

1. I never get nervous watching a dog I have picked because I wouldn't have picked them unless I computed them to be the better team at this point in time, under these given circumstances. In other words I feel I have the true favorite, or higher probability team. Case in point: The Kansas City Royals versus lefties last season, they win more often than not. Should be favored, only the public says dog, Bonus bucks with the better side. Sweet.

2. An injury to any one starter is usually not a big deal. The NBA has the deepest pool of players of any professional sport in the world. The game is played world wide and yet only 360 guys are eligible at any time. Hundreds of good college players are never even given a chance, and we have 320 colleges in Division 1. What that boils down to is that anyone coming off the bench for an injured player, or to substitute at any point in the game, is darn well qualified to do so. Proof that one player does not carry a team is all over the place. Just look at Memphis minus Gasol. They really aren't worse are they? Still look like the Grizzlies to me. Gasol solidified the Lakers and took them from the very good to super class, but it really didn't effect the Grizzlies all that much, since one player can not carry a team anyway.

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 02:55PM

backdoor_cover: Call your shot sucka, quarter, half?

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 02:59PM

Thanks Key for the explanation. I already knew you'll be on the Atlanta train again. I liked, and will be on both of your picks tonite.

Backdoor, was that a train that you've drawn just joking!!! any CFB pick on your train tonite? I like NIU so far...

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 03:12PM

Key - you can have the 1Q. Im taking H & G. Are you wanting another round bro?

i would have thought you didn't any more teeth the way we battle things out.

sun - my train is taking me on a ride to Kent St to steam roll over temple. I don't even know where Kent St is but im assuming its in the country

MrOPC says:

11/12/08 03:59PM

Key.......I'm still looking for some of those writeups you did in the MLB forum explaining ROI and dogs....you always had a very involved; but astute, way of explaining the "value" in playing the dog that was competitive as compared to playing the faves....

Back.....Liking Kent St tonite as well as CMU....and the Lakers getting points....Kobe sounds like a great leader in all his interviews...very savvy playing...

JEG53 says:

11/12/08 04:15PM

backdooor you dont remember what Kent St is famous for?

4 dead in Ohio,Crosby-Stills-and Nash?Thats where Nixon unleased the National Guard on the Hippies in 67 or 68,its in Ohio.

I took Tor-3 FH-105 against 76ers as Tor is playing well and Philly isnt.

Cant get off Atl.yet as Ive hit so much on them already a loss would just make me laugh,but my Thoughts are Atl.FH++,and was Thinking under in F-1/4 but not sure yet,might just do Atl.in Both.

Suns is a under play,not sure where yet.

Key,I agree with your Clippers stuff,BUT,the only 1/4 they have played well is the first,now I know Sac killed Det in the first 1/4 last night but I think thats more of Det.trying to find the new way they have to play without Billups running the show.So I like Sac in the FH++ better,just my thoughts on it,GL to all,last night was good but I lost on a couple of second half bets,like the under in second half of Minn-GS which wasa winner until OT,and couple others.

JEG53 says:

11/12/08 04:24PM

Guess I just showed my age there,lol

Have a Dr App.so just going to pick some early games before I leave.N.Ill-CMU,everything about this saids over,big Mac game for a bowl bid and last year at CMU high scoring game with easy win by CMU,but N.ILL is not balanced on Offense so if they have any shot at all the Defense has to show up,so for game I was thinking under 50,but having a problem pulling the trigger.

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 04:25PM

Mr.O, I like the Lakers as well, but I will restrain myself on betting on them tonite, until half time. If the game is close or Lakers is behind at the half, then it is time for the Lake Show in the 2ndH. The Lakers has shown me another side that I have not seen last year, which is defense. They can practically shut down or out score the other team with ease in the 2ndH on every game so far this year.

About CMU, they are last in pass defense, and playing in an away game with one eye on the next week home game against Balls State. NIU is still mad at the bad loss last week, and is looking to clinch a bowl berth with 2 more wins. This could get real ugly tonite....

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 04:30PM

Will any of you guys still be on this thread during the games so we can talk 2ndH picks as well?

JEG53 says:

11/12/08 04:36PM

This is something Ive thought about as sometimes second half bets have some good value and to give us another chance to hit a little more times.

MrOPC says:

11/12/08 04:45PM

See if you can find NJPorky who does a lot of work on 2H bets in the NFL forum........

MrOPC says:

11/12/08 04:47PM

quotePosted: 11/9/2008 6:04:53 PMThis system is a derivative of Porky's original 2H betting system - which started out in College Football and was applied to the NFL. Please see other posts or my blog for information about NJPorky's 2H betting system. In one of NJPorky's threads, I wrote about and started tracking how qualifying teams with his system would fare when the 2H spread was a TD or more (+/- 7 or higher) regardless of the size of the middle.

The key is to find a 2H line of 7 or more and figure out which team, if covering, would cause the middle to miss.

A middle is the difference between a team's pre-game betting line and that team's effective in-game betting line taking into account the halftime score and the second half line.

While doing some number crunching on Porky's system, I discovered this trend back in week 7 and decided to back-test this to the beginning of the season.

This year 16 games presented a 2H line greater than or equal to 7 points. There appear to be about 1-2 games per week that fall into this situation. Here are the YTD results.

WK 1 - CHI +10 @ IND (

) - middle 8.5
WK 3 - CIN +7 @ NYG (

) - middle 9
WK 3 - MIA +7.5 @ NE (

) - middle 19
WK 4 - KC +7 vs DEN (

- middle 5
WK 4 - OAK +7 vs. SD (

) - middle 16.5 (4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 4 - WAS +8 @ DAL (

) - middle 9
WK 5 - CIN +7.5 @ DAL (

) - middle 2.5
WK 6 - DET +7 @ MIN (

) - middle 7
WK 6 - STL +7 @ WAS (

) - middle 8
WK 6 - CLE +7 vs. NYG (

) - middle 4.5
WK 7 - STL +7 @ DAL (

) - middle 17.5
WK 8 - KC +7 @ NYJ (

) - middle 7
WK 8 - CLE +7 @ JAX (

) - middle 10
WK 9 - CIN +7 vs. JAX (

) - middle 11.5 (another 4th Qtr meltdown)
WK 9 - KC +7 vs. TB (

) - middle 13.5 (lost with 0:25 left)
WK 10 - KC +10 @ SD (

) - middle 10 (a miracle end)

CURRENT RECORD IS 13-3 (81%) YTD.
Road teams are a perfect 11-0 (100%)!!

Porky's system uses a 10-pt middle. If we put that stipulation on our teams, we would only be 4-3 YTD. All plays appear to be on the 2H dogs, however, this is not a dog system!!

Also note, the same teams appear to qualify every week (CLE, CIN, KC, etc.) - the BAD teams which just happen to play well enough in the 1st half to grab a +7 or higher 2H line.

So with the tightener (of +/- 7 on the 2H line) and a loosener (selecting all teams regardless of the middle), I was able to find this and make it into a system.

I will continue to post plays as they fall into this system. Let's take some of that bookie's bacon!!

JEG53 says:

11/12/08 07:57PM

I need to stay away from Tor.,thats a team I cant figure out,I go against them and they cant miss,I took them today and they are shooting 28%,and Calderon left in F-1/4 with his period I think.

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 08:47PM

im reminded of the song:

Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away, now it seems as thought there here to stay or why can't it be yesterday

0-3 to start the day. Not yet but soon to be. Just hope to catch the last two or else yesterday was for nothing.

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 06:20PM

Ok so all of you feel so strong about Atlanta. Thats cool but i just got get on board with it. Sorry guys. But i do like how Boston has a clamp down defense after a day or more of rest. It seems when they go on consecutive games played they get those tired legs and give up points. Not today. Today will be a battle in the trenches. 40-33 halftime - somebody???

Meant to say "just can't get on board with it"

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 06:18PM

Key - Im glad you can take a good laugh. Just be careful because my lady is a cold one. She doesn't care at all about emotions, just her success. One that i learn not to mess with

Mr.O - I read that system and gave it a try by playing 49ers 2H. Go figure the one time i try it, the system loses its first game for NFL 2H's. But it is a system not perfected yet but getting somewhere.

As for my plays for today:

Boston under 92.5

Nets Over 96.5

Bucks -1.5

Knicks +2.5

Sacramento +4(???)

First the (???) - why is the clips giving 4? Can someone explain that to me? Are we trying to be fooled here? I don't get it, all i know is Sacamento is coming around with or without some certain players.

Ok so all of you feel so strong about Atlanta. Thats cool but i just got get on board with it. Sorry guys. But i do like how Boston has a clamp down defense after a day or more of rest. It seems when they go on consecutive games played they get those tired legs and give up points. Not today. Today will be a battle in the trenches. 40-33 halftime - somebody???

Bucks - well im still on this train. Bucking the Spurs until it crashes. Don't see it crashing hard. Also talk about a new era in which the BUCKS are giving the SPURS points??? I don't see any magical tricks here as its spot on IMO.

Nets over well its one of those gut picks for me. Just see two good shooting no defense type of teams. 96.5 i'll give it a try.

And now the knicks. Give me the points against a so-so memphis team. Im excited. Also knicks coming off a bad beat versus the spurs. This team is playing some inspiring basketball. Good job coach so far. He gets an A in my books for the turn around this team has had so far. Thats it for now.

bonus play:

Kent St +1 (larger than normal play for me)

backdooor_cover says:

11/12/08 10:44PM

thanks key. Im already inspired for tomorrow.

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 04:50PM

bd_c: getting belligerent as hell there buddy but I am man enough to laugh it off.

Besides, your attitude can be tolerated just for a daily look at the ice lady. She is welcome in my igloo anytime!

MrO: You are looking at enough action that you may have 25 or 30 bucks in risk out there.

The ROI comparisons are simple. A -110 wager pays 91 cents on the dollar. Last night at +110 on Utah I had a 17% potentially better profit by playing the money line (91/110) and 26% better on Atlanta (91/123), but, I also had rested teams versus over valued opponents. No sweat. Tonight what turns me off is the B2B situation for both my teams versus rested teams. I don't think that is a major problem for only one quarter, but if Boston is as good as advertised (much better than Chicago) and the Clippers face a weaker team in the Kings than Phillie did in Utah, I do not see exactly the same advantages and think it may be wiser to take the points. There will be plenty of money line opportunities during the season, but one has to be careful and pick his spots. I still compute Atl and Sac to win the first quarter outright or I wouldn't play, but taking the points is an edge with B2B teams.

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 06:47PM

backdoor it's all opinion until the games are played so never apologize for going against. GL with the rest.

KeyElement says:

11/12/08 09:17PM

John Lennon also wrote "Imagine" so never give up and never look back, buddy. tomorrow is another day and Hemingway wrote "The Sun Also Rises", more words of hope.

Sunbeam says:

11/12/08 06:18PM

MrO, can you give an example on the porky's system? Kind of vague for me.

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User:	KeyElement
Joined:	December 2007
Location:	Arizona
Team:	Arizona Diamondbacks
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