KeyElement's Blog

1stQ - 1stH DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THURSDAY

By KeyElement | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 06:40 AM   16 comments
Toot: Another 2 dogs win outright in the first quarter BUT; I have an apology to make. You guys know I post elsewhere and the evidence is available, so I will confess I played the Pacers and Kings in the first quarter last night as short favorites and cashed both for a 4-0 sweep on the night. Blame MrO if you like, he is the one that sent me back to puppies only. As I have said before the numbers are getting very strong very early in the season, so from now on the same thing goes up at both sites, dogs, favorites, unders and overs, makes no difference. I will make them available. Whether or not anyone plays all or gets selective and picks and chooses what he agrees with is his own business. Your money, your choice.  
 
That being said let's get with it for today. As short as the card is I may have nothing, but will try to be available for consultation, discussion and conversation. GL2All, Cya later.
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MrOPC says:
11/13/08 10:12AM
Blame me for less winners??

 

BTW....Did all my peeps cash in on Kent St, CMU, and the Lakers last night????

 

That was my 20,000 solid gold lock parlay of the year that I gave out to all my clients 

 

Just kidding Mods.........

 

Nice job with those doggies, Key.........

KeyElement says:
11/13/08 11:59AM
Not more than 2 weeks ago you told me ypu never use the "L" word and now you are a 20K Scamdicapper. What's this world comin to? hahahahaha
bluejays99 says:
11/13/08 01:44PM
How bout Denver +2 for the first Q? The past 7 games between the two Denver has won 5-2 of the first quarters. This is a completely subjective theory but everytime I've seen LBJ on a nationally televised game it seems like he dogs it for the first 2.5 quarters then lights it up for the last five minutes of the third Q until he finishes the game on top.

Any thoughts?

KeyElement says:
11/13/08 02:00PM
bluejays99: I have that game as the most likely of all to stay close to the number all the way through. I have the game total at 192, but that's not far enough off the line to make me bite on the 1st quarter total either. That game was the first to exist my play list, so good luck if you run with it. Sorry. 
bluejays99 says:
11/13/08 02:23PM
Key: I haven't locked into it and have already made my top 3 plays for today. I'll probably lay off this one, your right I do think this one will be a close one. Thanks for the input key and good luck with any of your plays tonight.
KeyElement says:
11/13/08 02:37PM
Sadly I have to take the night off. There is a lot of temptation out there but nothing to bite down hard on. Friday will offer a better card so I may get to work on that early. If not I can get busy with my NFL updated, revised, new and improved, greatest thing since sliced bread program. MrO is gonna love it. You see, I am able to roll over strategies from one sport to the next now so this years bases helped last years bucket program get off to a quicker and more reliable start. Applying changes from both to the NFL ought to make that program dynamite but unfortunately not until this season is nearly over. Work performed on the NFL and NBA will roll over and into the bases next spring. Mad Scientist? Maybe, but if it knocks out winners, who cares? 
bluejays99 says:
11/13/08 02:44PM
Key when you say program do you create a formula manually or are you an excel whiz? or are you a programmer? I've been interested in building systems etc but all my knowledge is basically a couple of economic statistics courses and I've yet to be able to put anything useable together. I'm just keen to scratch someone's head who obviously has a knack for this kind of stuff.
wredskins says:
11/13/08 02:47PM
backdooor_cover says:
11/13/08 03:29PM
Today is the TNT special

 

TNT special means to play the two games at full game DOG and UNDER.  After today i will only post TNT special and not explain what it means.  OK? cool so with that being said:

 

Den +7.5 under 199

GS +5 under 199.5

 

Locked and loaded ready to go.  Im taking to bullet train today.  No steam just go.  CHOOO CHOOO

 

 

 

KeyElement says:
11/13/08 03:46PM
bluejays99: Excel is the base program, I'm no programmer either.

 

bd_c: Good luck tonight. You sound cheerful.

bluejays99 says:
11/13/08 04:02PM
Key:  Just wondering how indepth your knowledge of statistics are do you use SD, Var,  t-stat etc to predict outcomes. Or do you weight offensive/defensive statistics and then output a number and something along a higher number wins etc.
KeyElement says:
11/13/08 04:28PM
90% of what I do is mathematical but the final call has to be from the gut. I have to like it as much as the computer does. Stats are weighted for importance and some widely used stats are irrelevant. That's why I chose the moniker "Key" + "Element" some factors, or "elements" are much more important than many the public uses, and even those have to be graded.
Sunbeam says:
11/13/08 04:42PM
Hey guys, any leans for thursday night football? Sounds like Key is staying off NBA for tonight. I've just read up on the njporky's 2ndH system and a couple of modified versions as well. It is very interesting, but seems like more tweaking is needed. Even so, can't complain too much if the winning % is in the 60's with the system. I will definitely monitoring it from now on.
swahili says:
11/13/08 05:22PM
ola --just got back from mexico

 

i.m noticing dogs are winning the 1st halves and then the home favs wake up so taking den + 4 FH

 

bd-c are you parlaying those dogs and favs?

and den just dropped to +6 -- still a play?

JEG53 says:
11/13/08 05:44PM
Denver really seems like the best play,but not sure if Im going to,lol  GL guys,back to work tonight.
backdooor_cover says:
11/13/08 06:01PM
Aloha swahili.  No i dont parlay these plays.  I expect a 3-1 type of record.  Yes still the +6 but get it good while you can.  Points are always a premium when you are getting them.

 

Dont do many parlays except when i have extra play money.  More times than not parlays are for the suckers.  Im sure some people here will back me up on that one.

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User: KeyElement
Joined: December 2007
Location: Arizona
Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

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