Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 06:13 PM
YTD: 2-2 +.1
First let me say say sorry for not getting to post more or respond to PM's over the last few months - have had multiple personal matters to attend to and this is one of the extra-cirricular activities that had to get cut (not to mention got undercut under the basket playing basketball and suffered a fractured ankle and tibia/fibula). Everything is fine now and I'm hoping to post a few of my "favorite" plays to covers when time allows.
That being said, I'm having one of my best seasons to date (more that doubled my bankroll since the start of the cbb season). Now this could mean that I'm due for a course-correction so consider this (and future) plays with a grain of salt and realize that past performance doesn't ensure present/future success. With that being said though, in one of my next posts we are going to really need to go over some of basics of situational and value betting as some (read: most) of these threads are so painful to read.
On to the play, I'm making a larger than normal play today on
northeastern +8. When the line opened originally in Vegas Sunday afternoon it was ODU -7
and was ODU -8.5 when 5dimes opened it. I ended up grabbing it for 2-units at Northeastern +8, and I'm now seeing +7.5 at most shops (yes, I still like it and please read below why).
First, I have these two teams ranked much more closely than most do and I believe that we are getting a ve... [More]
Posted Tuesday, December 06, 2011 10:22 AM
YTD: 2-1 +1.1 units
I'm giving my last finals tomorrow so I'm hoping to be able to post a little more regularly now. Hoping to continue building on my best start of the ncaa hoops to date. If you have sent me a PM, I'll start wading through them again on Thursday, very sorry for the delay. I'm on Wofford/Tulane over 122.5 and very quickly here are a few reasons why:
has Tulane's defense ranked 50th in the country in efficiency (they give up less than 60ppg): Here is
why - they have played the 345th (out of 345 teams) EASIEST out of
conference schedule in the country in terms of their opponent's offense
efficiency. Repeat - there is no team in the country who has played
against worst offenses than Tulane this season. One could argue that this is the best offense they have played this season (and certainly their toughest road opponent to be sure). Also, I always like the angle of backing the over after playing a slow tempo tough defensive opponent. We have that here as Tulane is just coming off a slow slugfest with Georgia Tech. Wofford's defense will look much softer by comparison.
also shoots a healthy percentage from 3-pt land and gets to the line
well above the national average and shoots them at over 70% to boot.
also pressed more than expected and now that the competition is getting
better I expect them to give up more easy baskets than in t... [More]
Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 12:14 PM
YTD: 1-1, -.05 units
As I've mentioned before in my threads, my posting will be inconsistent until my semester at college ends and then I post more regularly. I don't post all the plays I make, just the ones I feel the most confident in. If you want to know all the plays I'm on, just PM me as I've started this season off hot again.
Today I'm on Ark/Houston over 146.5 for 1-unit
much to say about this, its the sucker bet of sucker bets and I'm just
the sucker to take it. As I'm sure you know, Arkansas's new head coach
is Mike Anderson, former Missouri
head coach and assistant under Nolan Richardson in the 40 minutes of
hell days. In his last two coaching stints at UAB and Missouri, the
fastest his teams played where in his first year as
the coach. He wants the players to buy into the system immediately and
goes to great lengths to get them in the uptempo basketball mode.
Arkansas's first two games of the season netted 80 possessions (and
total of 146 against 320 ranked in offense last year South Carolina Upstate) and 76 possessions and 159 points against Oakland (with Oakland shooting 25/72 for 34% from the floor).
on the other hand, has played two straight games with over 70
possessions themselves and has scored over 80 points in both. Houston's
second year coach James Dickey has been quoted in the off-season as
saying that one of his biggest mi... [More]
Posted Friday, November 11, 2011 09:21 PM
Sorry for the late post - schedule is hectic, never know when I can post on covers. I usually will only do writeups about the games I bet, if your interested in the other games I study but don't bet, shoot me a private message.
Please keep in mind that I have started very hot each of the past two seasons. There are two ways to looks at this, a) the methods and angles I use to make plays work best earlier in the season (maybe) or b) I'm due for a correction/regression to the mean (probably more likely! )
Before I get to the pick, please humor me for a second as I explain a few things that same people that are new the forum might not understand (sorry to you regulars as this is something I know I've repeated time and time again but it bears repeating now so we don't have to continue to go over it time and time again).
Newbies: please understand that I posting this play as what I have I bet and what I have suggested my friends and family got gambles bet. I'm not posting this play for you to blindly tail and follow, I'm simply pointing out a game that I feel has value and is worthy of a bet and that I think you should take a look at yourself. (That being said, I understand that many people don't have or want to take the time necessary to fully research the game so they do tail and that is a responsibility that I don't take lightly trust me). There are almost 50 games on tonight's schedule and there is no wa... [More]
Posted Tuesday, November 01, 2011 02:39 PM
Hope everyone is doing is well and ready for this college basketball season! For those of you who don't know me, here is my philosophy in a nutshell:
1. I rarely bet over 1-unit on any particular play
2. My 1-unit is a higher percentage of my bankroll than most people on this site. I do this for many reasons. First, it keeps me from betting games just to bet games. Next, any "loss" is painful and causes me to rethink my methods, angles, etc. this keeps me on my toes. Lastly, it helps keep me selective in the betting process as I will most often times have a "lean" on a side or total, but it takes many factors to push it over the edge into a "play" for me.
3. I rarely bet teams from the "big" conferences (more on this later)
4. I do not bet 1h or 2h's (not that there isn't value there - its just not the way I handicap) and I rarely chase (hold me to that:)
5. I rarely watch a game a bet on (I study it intensely before and then either track it online and/or go back and study/read the recaps, quotes, stats etc. afterward but its nearly impossible to watch a game objectively when you are rooting for your bet to win). I would rather study a game, have a lean on that game but not bet it, and then watch the game to see if my angles, trends, stats, etc. were correct about that game or not. Also, the information gleaned from watching a game objectively can be put right to use in those team... [More]
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 12:16 PM
YTD: 13-6 (2-0 2-unit plays) +9.5 units (7-straight strong play and gut play alert wins)
*Disclaimer: For those of you who haven't read my giant write-ups before, here are some things to consider. I rarely bet over 1-unit on any wager, thus making a 2-unit wager a huge deal. I rarely bet on games involving ranked teams or that would be seen on ESPN (I can discuss this further if you like). I don't wager on games every night and I rarely play more than one game a night (not because it is some rule I use, its just that there are rarely nights that two games meet my criteria to wager on). Just because I have a lot to say about a game, doesn't mean I am guaranteeing a win or am ultra-confident. On the contrary, sometimes I don't feel very confident about a play, but if it meets my criteria for a wager, I place it. Please don't come into this thread talking about "public play" this or "line movement" that. My analysis is based purely on the matchups and various other angles, systems, and analysis that I use. On to the game:
Based on the matchups and previous performances of the two teams, I feel that this is a nice spot to back the USC Trojans tonight (if you have read my write-ups before I can guess you are pretty surprised as I don't back favorites much). This is as much a play AGAINST Idaho St. as it is a play on USC. Let's start with Idaho St. . .
Idaho St. is a team that the Blue Ribbon Yearbo... [More]