KingScorpio's Blog

SQUARES love getting DD's and makes LOSERS feel COMFORTABLE betting their money

By KingScorpio | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 04:10 PM   100 comments

SMU 7-5 vs. NEV 8-4

-14 on Nevada is the biggest spread of all the bowl games

Now some bullshit about suspensions and starters not playing only add to the frenzy.

Today's game will feature 2 shitty defenses.

NEV facing June Jones run and gun upstart Mustangs and SMU facing the run happy Wolfpack.

The suspensions mean nothing because the kids replacing them are motivated for the chance to play and shine.

If the suspension really mattered Vegas would pull the game off the board,but instead lets the goofy public slit their own throats thinking they know better.

Laying DD's when your team has a shitty defense is always dangerous,which is why NEV should cover.Because there's RISK in that bet.

Getting DD's while playing a shitty defense and that team has player suspensions only sets up false hopes.There's NO RISK betting here,therefore should be a losing bet.

 

So i'll lay the biggest spread on the board in a game that looks almost equal when looking at the overall records.

 

NEV -14 or more

GL

100 comments
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drhl says:
12/24/09 04:16PM
YOUR POINT OF VIEW SOUNDS INTERESTING
cowboydave says:
12/24/09 04:21PM
Are you really laying 14 somewhere?
kerryvonerick says:
12/24/09 04:22PM
GL
cgonzo84 says:
12/24/09 04:23PM
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 04:24PM

No but think NEV covers the opening line of -14,so if line goes to -12.5 posters know where i stand on this game.

ThorsHammer says:
12/24/09 04:28PM
t6rider says:
12/24/09 04:29PM

Scorp, I'm 100% with you. Don't forget Nevada has lost their bowl games in each of the last three years.

Motivation should not be a problem for them Kapernick started the last 2 bowl games and will have a chip on his shoulder. Chris Ault is a pretty good coach as well.

All I keep hearing is June Jones this and June Jones that. Nevada and all of their suspensions and bullshit.

This one should be over by halftime. I might just play the Pack - 6.5 for the first half if I can find it.

I know you hang around the Gold Coast. Do you recall the first half line. Maybe you can save me a trip looking for that number. Thanks.

MrZamboni says:
12/24/09 04:30PM
GL KS 
AJLightning says:
12/24/09 04:30PM
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 04:34PM

Gold Coast -7

Palms -6.5

jp548 says:
12/24/09 04:37PM

College Football 1st Half

Team Total Points
Thu 12/24, 8:00PM (EST)
SMU          
Nevada          
* Game Note: --HAWAII BOWL-- @ Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI

 

That is off shore but the line is down to 11 so you may get your 6.5.

Good Luck

 

TRAIN69 says:
12/24/09 04:41PM

gl ks.....but nevada has been distracted waaaay too much for me to wanna think they are 2 tds better than any bowl team....

 

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 04:46PM

Hence the DD line and the risk taking NEV

GL

Poundtown55 says:
12/24/09 04:46PM
Interesting take on the game.  You usually love the dogs from what I have read in the past.  Dogs seem to be making a lot of noise early this bowl season.  Also this line moved 2 points before the injuries came out.  
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 04:50PM

Love them dogs but not DUMMY dogs

That's why i posted -14 or more as the spread

GL

GoldjaBoy says:
12/24/09 04:51PM
stoney1 says:
12/24/09 04:52PM
good insight gl
Poundtown55 says:
12/24/09 04:53PM
Not trying to be a pest, but I'm interested in your opinion.  It seems to me that more wagers (the public) are coming in for Nevada.  I assume this means there is some big money coming in on SMU? or are the books playing mind games?  
zipnjaz says:
12/24/09 07:08PM
stations  11.5  and 70...around 2 pm.....gl

ML smu +300....

l will wait till half time..
rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 07:42PM

middle's are not that easy  juice is a bitch

-11.5   72   leroys    just stuck with over if 11 I would have dove in

rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 07:56PM
 i can't get off the floor i'm laughing so loud
rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 07:58PM
this place gets funnier every day
rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 08:15PM
dude you need to light the pipe and smoke some better shit
rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 05:43PM
i posted the over in the box,  going to the silverton now will follow and play the fav as i like your play will see what lines i get,  had byu and utah so far
gtsum says:
12/24/09 08:17PM
sometimes a person can out think themselves...SMU wants to be here something terrible, and so far (0-7) Nevada does not...it does not matter the talent discrepency...not to say it can't turn around for Nevada, but I like my SMU chances
thejudge1000 says:
12/24/09 07:08PM
Line is down to NEV -10.5 in lots of places.  54% on SMU. 
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 07:42PM

Don't believe there will be any middling in this game,line went from -14 to -15.5.

Everything since has been joe public money.

Wouldn't be suprised to see line jump a point or more right before kickoff when they can get some more at a cheaper line of -10 or -11

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 07:27PM

Won't matter.

It's hard enough to pick 10 losers as it is picking 10 winners.So 3t's feat is impressive but

This thread is going by the opening line not some clown playing his X-BOX

GL

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 06:52PM

-11 at the Gold Coast

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 04:58PM

Trust me idiots have money too and aren't afraid to make bad bets

Would tell you not to worry about the public and focus on what's the harder bet to make when betting.

GL

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 05:22PM

Highest total on the board would tell you to take over.Both teams could total over 100 points.IMO but i'm just pushing NEV here.

Is that avatar a picture of Gunnar and you ????

If so, sorry for your loss and Merry Christmas

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 08:21PM
Last 2 bowl games the loser started out with the lead,so i'll wait for the game to play out before worrying.
ryder007 says:
12/24/09 05:16PM
pjrez says:
12/24/09 07:44PM
No they aren't, but having a 14.5 and a 10.5 gives a nice chance.
Weathered says:
12/24/09 05:55PM
thanks for the good laugh
nc1capper says:
12/24/09 04:57PM
some body wins, somebody loses, a bit worried about the strength of confrence usa (if there is any) but feel the pass happy stangs will have some success moving the ball thru the air and keep it within the number, but, as you say, it's a risk, nice write up and intresting mindset indeed, enjoy your holidays Sir
Mr803 says:
12/24/09 07:34PM
Why would books move the line more and risk being middled some more?
ilovekim says:
12/24/09 05:47PM
 I have Nevada -10 and over 70. This one will get ugly.
Faber_Guy says:
12/24/09 08:18PM


yeah, pearls.
Polar_Bear says:
12/24/09 05:40PM
Agree and I have the total set TOO HIGH for these two to begin with which made me think Over to begin with but just gonna stick to the side as well here.

Yes that is a picture of me and my very old best friend....Big holes in my days to fill, so empty Christmas for me this year bro but Merry Christmas all the same to you and yours.....

Polar_Bear says:
12/24/09 05:40PM
Agreed.
Polar_Bear says:
12/24/09 05:13PM

I agree with the angle and the play, waiting myself though as should get down to 10 by gametime though with the SMU feeding frenzy going on the last 8 hours. Injuries that mean very little, shoplifting, suspensions, June Jones coming home.....................Waiting to hear what is next today...

You got any feeling on the total? I am gonna stick to the side only but just for convo sake I see the same thing developing here with the total as I see people jumping all over the Under in the same fashion thinking the 2 starting backs out means all of a sudden Nevada can't score which is ridiculous IMO....

stoney1 says:
12/24/09 07:02PM

line at 10.5 at bet phoniex from 11. i bought it an hour ago at 10 for 124one full point. and now its 10.5 at 129..they are tricky. hope this helps gl

stoney1 says:
12/24/09 05:08PM
king line now at 11 at bet phoniex took it down to 10 it will go back, i suppose. when i see this i do have some luck just wanted you to no. go getum, and gl
stoney1 says:
12/24/09 05:19PM
polar i would think the total would come down further before the game.gl.
stoney1 says:
12/24/09 07:09PM

poffessional the sharps took smu when it was 14.5 to 15. now its 10.5. king is on the right track..

Professional1 says:
12/24/09 07:21PM
3T is on Nevada that is all you need to know!
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 05:37PM


Hey genius sharps are on SMU! You think you know everything!
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:19PM
Nevada
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:15PM
King you still feeling confident backing a team that does not want to be there?
Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 07:52PM

Wondering if this is a Vegas Thread trying to get Money on Nevada ?

Just Wondering ????

Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 07:58PM

What a great spot too. If tons of Money comes in on nevada, they did their Job and just make an excuse, "cant win them all" And if Nevada does cover, they still break even and this post looks like a genius. "can't lose, either way"

Now I just need to read the post quoting mine and saying this Guy is "Real" and or "I am crazy for thinking such Non-sense"

Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 07:59PM

Oh, here it is, i didn't even have to wait. Waiting to Pounce !

Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 08:01PM

And straight from the Home State ! Woo Hooo

Poundtown55 says:
12/24/09 05:02PM
Thanks for you input sir. Much appreciated, I'm probably staying away from this game, but I find your logic as a bettor quite interesting
vanzack says:
12/24/09 09:09PM

Ive read 2 threads from this guy...

In the first one he called me a chump, and in this one he called me a square.

Both times I won.

TRAIN69 says:
12/24/09 09:26PM

tough luck bro

however....i am also almost 100% positive that squares not like dd dogs....they love the fav

rickster2312 says:
12/24/09 08:22PM
it is early only 1stq
mpeiu81 says:
12/24/09 09:15PM
props for at least not disappearing.  we all look bad at one time or another.
mpeiu81 says:
12/24/09 09:13PM
mpeiu81 says:
12/24/09 09:30PM
i hear ya there
mpeiu81 says:
12/24/09 09:18PM
rod_steel says:
12/24/09 09:15PM
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 10:00PM

 

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:51PM

Good for you

Merry Christmas

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:39PM

True, it's better than losing in the last minute.

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:40PM

28.5 is an over number usually

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:43PM

Where were you before the game ???? 

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:34PM

SMU has everything going right and are playing stress free.

NEV looks dazed and ready to get out of dodge.

SMU's firepower is too much for NEV

SMU will keep scoring and NEV won't

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:30PM

Laying DD's with a shitty defense is risky and usually means you'll lose.And guess what

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:27PM

Well at least i don't have to sweat out the 2nd half

 

 

 31-0 WOW!!!! What a beatdown

KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 09:14PM
NEV got punched with a left and a right and have played in a daze ever since.
KingScorpio says:
12/24/09 08:49PM

I was man enough to say there was risk in the bet i was making.

You kids took the easy route and might come out smelling like a rose today.So enjoy it.

Keep betting that way and i'll keep betting my way.

wizardofroz says:
12/24/09 08:31PM
 It looks like SQUARES love giving double digits. 
wizardofroz says:
12/24/09 09:38PM

 I agree.  A man's true character or lack thereof comes when things are not going well.   

Weathered says:
12/24/09 08:33PM

no...really...i cant stop reading this thread

"Squares love double diget dogs"

Thats why the books got killed for their biggest losing day in years when every fav (many double digets) all covered on one sunday in the NFL

"Squares love double diget dogs"

Hilarious stuff man, thanks

Weathered says:
12/25/09 10:38AM

B_A_R_N_E_Y says:
12/24/09 08:32PM
   WHAAAAT   lol  
giants says:
12/24/09 08:44PM

I AM SUPRISED PEOPLE THINK VEGAS HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE GAMES

outlaw96 says:
12/24/09 09:40PM

I personally wouldnt chase this game  and i wont ,tomorrow is a new day and it is Christmas  I swore up n down i was gonna fade this pick and at the last second i went  with the pack   im over it and moving on

wawakid says:
12/24/09 08:28PM
I'm just on the over but remember SMU does not have a D like BAMA game ain't over by a longshot
Kurshka says:
12/24/09 09:32PM

 

So state it back to yourself. Oh yeah you never were on the wrong side? Go toot to Wussie in the PB. Totally uncalled for.

Kurshka says:
12/24/09 09:29PM

 

King if you live in Nevada you should know this is always a shakey team on the road. I am on the same side as you and just amazed that the Pack can not move the ball. And worse no points. Did not go to much on the game but the cover is blown. Looking for a 2nd half play. Waiting for the line but truelly feel the Pack will put up at least 21. Whats your take.

Kurshka says:
12/24/09 09:40PM

 

A left a right and another left.. oh man the punishment.

I figure they get something and agree SMU will keep scoring.
Over 29 for me....or is that to square.

Uconn34 says:
12/24/09 09:11PM

nevermind i dont respect you

what is there to respect

Uconn34 says:
12/24/09 08:28PM
you need hooked on phonics you dont know how to read a line
Uconn34 says:
12/24/09 08:32PM
yeah long game to go...well aware smu could shit themselves...but we have to enjoy it while we can
Uconn34 says:
12/24/09 08:58PM

your angle is obsurd with the risk...there's risk to anyside of a bet...and to claim one has more is nonsense

i felt more risk taking smu vs this proclaimed great pistol offense and smu's awful defense....

instead i just looked at simple factors motivation and can smu put up points vs this nevada defense

you have my respect not like you care, but your thread was dumb as all hell

Professional1 says:
12/24/09 09:05PM
i would love to be your bookie! you think you are so smart!
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 09:06PM
keep pounding the favorites!
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:38PM
you were wrong about 3t he is cursed but great pick by you Mr. Sharp! you are the only sharp on covers!
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:30PM



Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:24PM
Nevada is awful
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 08:25PM
about to be 21-0 then Nevada will have to run
Professional1 says:
12/24/09 10:54PM


just shows you the kind of loser he is
billyweather says:
12/24/09 08:46PM

    NEVADA-RENO 

 

ANOTHER DOG COVERING!!! VEGAS LOVES ALL THESE FAVES BETTORS.   

billyweather says:
12/24/09 09:38PM
KING 2ND HALF ACTION??? I'M THINKING UNDER
vincenzococotti says:
12/24/09 09:30PM

if ur gonna go down...might as well go down in flamessssss...nice thread...been there

Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 09:54PM

UCONN  I got on SMU today after hearing about all the player problems. And thought they were worth 50 bucks money line at 335. Good hit I hope... So far so good.

Your wrtie about the thread. I still think Vegas would have people in here to post. it would have to help move money, even if just a little. Little is Money ! Money is Money!

Pipe-Light says:
12/24/09 10:04PM

I bet you get on a rool soon. You will break out and I will be right there to follow. Just waiting for you to get on the right side.

I love Vegas insiders bringing us tips. I evauate and bet accordinly.

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