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Explain why you would be in a hurry to lay -154 against a team that's won 7 in a row

By KingScorpio | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, January 27, 2010 09:52 PM   80 comments
OTT ml +144
80 comments
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Johnnypicks says:
01/27/10 09:57PM
now whats going on?
Sandman_130 says:
01/27/10 10:14PM
The last time the Ottawa Senators played in the Igloo Captain Daniel Alfreddson was knocked out of the game and put on the injured reserve for 11 games. (A questionable hit nonetheless)

The game resulted in an 8-2 schooling from the Pens.

However we all know the Sens record since Alfie has been back, thanks in part to great goaltending and a team finding it's chemistry.

The Sens have won 7 straight and look to tie a franchise record 8 wins thursday.

Guerin, Talbot, and Kunitz are all questionable for thursday's match up.

Give me that much juice and I'll take my chances with the Senators.
KingScorpio says:
01/27/10 10:14PM

Looks like bettors are in a hurry to take the Stanley Cup Champions at -154 against the HOTTEST team in the N.H.L.

LuckyGuy says:
01/27/10 10:15PM
Couldn't agree more KS. 
Johnnypicks says:
01/27/10 10:24PM
streaks you say????????/
LuckyGuy says:
01/27/10 10:34PM
what what streak??????
Johnnypicks says:
01/27/10 10:44PM
oh you mean on fire streak
myrkur15 says:
01/27/10 11:40PM
Another one of these!?

Agree though
weeble5672 says:
01/27/10 11:45PM
Agreed
KingScorpio says:
01/27/10 11:47PM

If Vegas keeps pulling this shit,then yes another one of these threads

Get_the_Money says:
01/27/10 11:55PM
Do one everyday. 
paradox says:
01/27/10 11:59PM


Agreed. Usually good conclusions come out of these threads.
Jason316 says:
01/28/10 02:42AM

pens win

 

but i agree with what u are saying

 

Jason316 says:
01/28/10 02:42AM

sorry meant to say pens may win

 

sens are the value play

 

atlheatholder says:
01/28/10 03:35AM

Agree with you King - too much value here & do the books still think they're gonna get a ton of public money flowing in on last year's champs?  Is that their thinking....?

JTFinn says:
01/28/10 08:43AM
Sens with Alfredson always give Pens trouble.  Value is on the Sens side here.
Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 08:55AM
I dunno, but I still think the pens win this game
lovinhockey says:
01/28/10 09:21AM

BEING FROM PITTSBURGH , I THINK THE BEST SIDE IS THE SENS HERE. PENS HAVE BEEN UP & DOWN LATELY ALTHOUGH COVERING LAST 2 GAMES THERE NOT ON THERE GAME LATELY ,PLUS THIER A LITTLE BANGED UP. IMO SMART $$$$'S ON THE SENS TAKE THE DOG(WOOF WOOF) GLTA.

Kirkpicard says:
01/28/10 10:10AM

Again ???

However ... Agree !!!

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:32PM

TRUTH BE TOLD - TALK IS CHEAP

If you guys had only $1,000 to your name and went to place a bet on this game,over 95% of you would end up taking the SAFE/COMFORTABLE side in PIT even at -200 odds

Money amount wagered factors into the mindset of every bettor

Betting $20 compared to $1000 is a complete different world of thought or OVERTHINKING

 

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:42PM

Meant to also say if you only had $20 to your name over 70% would still side with the Stanley Cup Champions at whatever price.

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:15PM

The short line on PHX bodes well for CAL today,but not definate.

Game is a tossup and could go eitherway.

So it's not a POUNDER

 

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:18PM

Sports bettors are always looking to decide when streaks will end.

That factor is considered when they put out the lines.

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:03PM

Why not,look at some of the replies in this thread.

There's doubt about OTT's win streak and they're playing the Stanley Cup Champions in Pittsburgh and Vegas made PIT the favorite.

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:07PM

Thought that at first glance,then i realized the only thing going for OTT was it's winning streak.

Bettors need more than that to convince them to go against the Stanley Cup Champions at HOME

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:10PM

Wish all we had to do was look at prior results to come up with winners,but then everyone would always win.

 

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 12:57PM

The point of this thread is to get to understand betting habits

Want posters to explain why they are betting in certain games

That's why threads like this makes us STRONGER bettors win or lose

Nobody wins everyday including Vegas

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 01:06PM

Betting against streaks winning or losing is the wisdom of a fool in the long run.

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 01:20PM

When i laid my head down on the pillow last night i thought "Watch PIT win 4-0 now"

KingScorpio says:
01/28/10 01:46PM

Just don't think there should be a hurry to bet against a streak.

That angle is considered by linesmaker when setting line.

Sport bettors have a desire to decide when streaks will end and i believe Vegas capitlizes on this fact.

Lippsman says:
01/28/10 12:53PM

It just points out that the Sens have been playing well and to look at the game closer.  That's how I look at it.  And yes KS has had many, many misfires.  But at least it gets people to look at the games deeper.

And that horrible road sens team has won thier L4 games on the road.

Lippsman says:
01/28/10 12:55PM
Oh and one other thing, the Sens have played pretty well in Pitt the last few years.
Lippsman says:
01/28/10 01:19PM

Well of course as I usually say, if you like the Pens take them on the -.5 or -1 line.  That way your risk is cut way down.

Lippsman says:
01/28/10 12:40PM

I don't always agree with KS, but he's 100% correct with this statement.  You have to think of your money as Monopoly money.  Don't even think twice if you lose it. If you do you are wagering too much.

But to the S/Pens game. You would be a fool to wager against the Sens here.  They have played incredible D thier L7 games. I would look to play the Pens TT under, but at 3 you will probably get a push out of it.  But I don't see them scoring 4 goals either. 

So yeah, take Pens TT under 3 or 3.5 if you can find it juiced.  But it would be pretty high juice like -145

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 12:22PM
cant wait for the line to drop
Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 12:05PM
I think I'm still leaning PIT
Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 01:14PM
the reyur of Alf /spezza has been a huge lift
Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 01:02PM
I might just bet the Pens just to be an idiot
Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 01:13PM

for f sakes...the sens have only beaten two I repeat   2 decent team in their  7 gm.run. CHI/NJ

stl ya ya...but comon....atl and bos twice nyr  

 

,,,for you dog loves...gluck tonight

 

 

gbear says:
01/28/10 12:13PM

All winning streaks come to an end KS and judging by the teams they've played against it would appear that streak comes to an end tonight,its all about risk assesment and I for one am risking Pittsburgh stops that streak tonight.

gbear says:
01/28/10 10:59AM

Not to take anything away from the Sens,they're playing great right but look who they've beat in their last 8 games NJ,NYR,Mtl,Boston twice,St-Louis at home and Chicago at home.

With the exception of the perhaps the lattter 2, not exactly world beaters are they?

Yes the Pens might lose this one BUT in my OPINION,I think the Sens have met their match!

This thing is a Pens victory or at BEST for the Sens, a shootout loss!

Dangerbay says:
01/28/10 10:58AM
For those all gungho about Sens, check to see what happened to the ROAD TEAM .in the last 4 matchups btw these 2 
killafornia83 says:
01/28/10 01:14PM

agree with you as well
i think the pens win tonight and end the sens streak
primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 01:10PM

I'm with ya. Anyone supporting OTT will say "what a sucker, OTT is on a winning a streak getting plus money. PENS are the Stanley Cup champs so its the easy route out because they're laying chalk"

PENS ML
primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 01:16PM

Hey Robin Thicke, you bring up past results with such weak facts. Why don't you mention that Brent Johnson was in the net for a few games. Just because I support the Pens in this spot, doesn't mean I lay the ML on all there games. By me continuing to defend my case, I'll just be wasting my time because you haven't pointed out any relevant facts.
primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 01:00PM
Its so funny how KS always mentions bettors wanting to be hero's by picking against teams on winning streaks. Maybe some bettors are betting against teams on winning streak that are getting a undeserving line. I know its easy for me to bring up past history of results before it happen but lets look at what OTT has done in the past 6 games on the road. They beaten MTL, BOS twice, and the NYR but lost to CAR and ATL. The point being MTL and NYR are incredibly over rated. The two wins against BOS was not too far fetched as OTT has owned them this year, without the service of there best 2 players. So why is OTT getting all this love? Bettors are simply to slow to figure out that OTT has not beaten anyone legitimate on the road yet. The teams they have beaten went on the road have records under 500 or they've won in shootouts where the odds are 50/50 from there.
primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 01:06PM

I apologize if i came at you the wrong way. But I don't see this game counting as a suckers bet. It's more like the odd makers are reacting to OTT winning streak rather than their actual road record and what they've done. I can see why you would think this be a suckers bet because of OTT winning streak but they haven't proven to be trustworthy until they beat a mediocre team on the road.


primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 12:48PM
What is the point of this thread? If KS is correct and OTT wins, he looks like a genius and the Pitt backers feel like complete morons? But if KS is wrong, then where do we go from here with this thread? KS has been wrong numerous times if you look at his post history. Either way, the line has been pegged perfectly to get 2 way action. Malkin is heating up and thats not the determining factor was why they'll win but due to past history, hes a beast. Bettors are forgetting that OTT is a terrible road team regardless if they have there full lineup back.
primetimeblitz says:
01/28/10 01:21PM

I know and I'm sure the oddmakers love it when you lay chalk with NYR and MTL. 
MaddenGuru says:
01/28/10 01:51PM

 when it comes to pucks, depressed knows his stuff...don't discount his opinion. If you've ever read his writeups in his thread you will understand what I'm talking about. Not saying the man knows everything or that OTT will win, but he brings a lot to the table.

And KS is spot on here...I agree with Lippsman in that I don't agree with KS all the time, but this thread is good in that it should make people dig deeper into why they're placing a bet on a certain team. Obviously with a gun to my head if I had to pick who would win I'd say PITT, but a gun isn't to my head and I can afford to lose what I bet tonight on OTT because there is just too much value.

BOL to you either way one of us wins.

MaddenGuru says:
01/28/10 10:50AM

agreed...locked ottawa in last night

my only worry is that with all the love for ottawa and the high line, books might be trapping everyone into taking the plus money here since it seems like the obvious play

hitterno24 says:
01/28/10 12:02PM
hey king..regards to the tthread about when you took the flames last night when they lost..did you say that they would prob win tonight with the short line on the yotes...or is the yotes the play?
hitterno24 says:
01/28/10 12:17PM

i agree....thanks king..but when i first saw that line i thought that too..but if you think about it..phoenix never really lays much chalk at home...they usually are around that number at home..

Flutiemaniac341 says:
01/28/10 08:50PM

i have a friend that always gives me the "due" factor as the reason when wagering. seems to be fairly prevalent.

Flutiemaniac341 says:
01/28/10 10:13PM
lol another due factor not to be. u got it down scorpio. nhl is damn streaky. this is the one sport you dont try and look like a genious. roll the hot hand.
surething45 says:
01/28/10 07:36PM
haha he wasn't so quick to post the score again.  2 -1 Ottawa now and they are out shooting the pens big time!
Jab38 says:
01/28/10 10:15PM
NICE HIT
KingScorpio says:
01/29/10 12:27AM

Just got off work and see OTT wins 4-1

 

Congrats to OTT backers

Lippsman says:
01/28/10 08:16PM

Pens need to step it up a notch.

Lippsman says:
01/28/10 07:29PM

What was that score again.

elithepunk says:
01/28/10 10:11PM
Sandman_130 says:
01/28/10 06:52PM
Fuck you all!!!!!!!!


Going ALL IN WITH THE SENS.
Sandman_130 says:
01/29/10 02:28AM
good night scorpio.

I have watched 70-75 ottawa games per year for the last 3 years. This team is back with a vengance.

I tripled my bankroll night, in what many would call degenerate fashion.

But when you know, you just know.

Good night, best night of my year so far.

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 10:15PM

this thread was money .

zugibe...

i going over to the box for a minute

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 07:13PM

1-0 pit already

 

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 07:56PM

I'm here dood...2-1 sens

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 07:57PM

2-1 for some team called ottawa

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 09:32PM

I was say that beacuse i thought he pns would be a little less shitty.

good for you guys.

Johnnypicks says:
01/28/10 08:40PM

Ott backers should be concerned in the 3rd

Vasko says:
01/28/10 10:26PM
killafornia83 says:
01/28/10 06:05PM
depressed does know his stuff, i read his threads everyday
but just got a feeling ottawa loses today, with fleury in net
LuckyGuy says:
01/28/10 08:20PM
Fuck PIT !!!
LuckyGuy says:
01/28/10 08:42PM


why do u say that bro? 
LuckyGuy says:
01/28/10 09:04PM


3-1  Sens

OH u mean pens backers should be concerned!

Spezza baby
LuckyGuy says:
01/28/10 09:30PM
SENS TO THA BANK !!!!!   
LuckyGuy says:
01/28/10 09:31PM
primetimeblitz says:
01/29/10 03:26AM
Congrats OTT backers.
Gulgo says:
01/28/10 10:26PM
YOU and I bro... nailed it!
h3llbent says:
01/28/10 08:28PM
KS brings up valid points when it comes to streaks and bettors deciding when they will end. Hockey is the streakiest sport going. I have been betting hockey for over 25 years and I can tell you that I have cleaned up year after year riding the hot team. I don't care what happened last year, last month, or even last week. I watch a ton of games and I bet on what I see. Look at each nights card. You will find a lot of teams on a current roll-even shitty teams that are laying good value- and yet for some reason bettors analyze the shit out the game and go against their leans, cuz history says so. I don't know too many successful bettors that buck current trends. Take Edm for example. Why would anybody not be on the fade  every night till they win? Who am I to decide when this streak ends. Till then, keep cashing in. As for the pens/sens I saw this as too close to call so I laid off. Just thought I'd add my 2 cents. Good thread.
myrkur15 says:
01/28/10 10:53PM
Wooooohooooooo
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