KingScorpio's Blog

It's payday and you get THE BEST TEAM IN THE NHL WSH -1.5 -110

By KingScorpio | View all Posts
Posted Friday, February 05, 2010 01:53 PM   82 comments

No Ivan for ATL and WSH has won 12 in a row

-300 seems like a sure thing and probably is at that price but -1.5 -110 doesn't

Thinking of just playing the +1.5 on ATL -110 because Vegas isn't going to let you get rich on PAYDAY

ATL pl +1.5 -110

 

Tell me your thoughts and angles on this game today

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hitterno24 says:
02/05/10 01:55PM
i was thinking the same thing......
hitterno24 says:
02/05/10 01:55PM
almost looks too easy with the human gas can pavelic in net tooo
ThaCollecTAH says:
02/05/10 01:56PM
All I know is that I love seeing your thoughts on anyone's picks. I have never seen this price on a +1.5 and only makes sense to jump on it. I think Atlanta comes out strong showing they don't need Kovy for a W. I think Wash still takes the game but I like it to be close, especially after the number of goals scored last night in NY.
wiggins says:
02/05/10 02:02PM

Some might say no chance because they lost their best player. Well to me their best player was starting to be a distraction. He made it pretty obvious he had no plans of staying with the Thrashers and it is tough to play with someone you know does not want to go to war with you.

Caps got Pens coming up. HARD fought game last night.

Might be worth a look.

iceburg14 says:
02/05/10 02:02PM
public see's the thrashers as a depleted team and ready for rebuilding from the ground up facing probably the best team in the league. the caps completely embarrassed them last time in atlanta. let alone beat them 3 straight times in atlanta this year. i see the motivation on atlanta's side tonight with not having much to lose for the rest of the season.
wiggins says:
02/05/10 02:03PM

And it's Ilya not Ivan.

Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 02:03PM

Atlanta ML +270    Those are my thoughts. The OTHER guys play like hell to show they CAN win without Mr. Superstar in the lineup.

I have a stated in a few threads now what I think of the Capitals garbage play the last few outings as they look to be begging for a loss unlike Ottawa on their win streak.

The Caps have been getting GREAT goaltending which you cannot expect to hold up, bounces going their way which will even out at some point and timely goals that go hand in hand with the lucky bounces.

 Kudos to them for managing to win against these WEAK opponents without an honest effort but that shit catches up to you and they are about to run into a buzz saw...The +1.5 line is a gift....If I play this and I think I just might as still watching the line grow I will incorporate it into a +1 play and take the push if they lose by one as I think the can win this game and +1 would give me some huge plus money with still the protection of the 1 goal....

Currently I have this to play at +1  205/365......Finger is on the trigger....

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:07PM

 Just noticed i put ivan

faceoff says:
02/05/10 02:08PM
Intense game in N.Y. last night... Good spot and even better price for a Washington let down.......... GL
KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:12PM

Thought like that even first thing this morning,but then i remembered Vegas doesn't mind paying -300's which lead me to the true moneymaker the +1.5 -110

Every joe square will try to save HEAVY JUICE by taking the -1.5 -110 on WSH winning by 1 makes vegas the winner and the greedy bastards the losers

 

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:15PM

nicely put

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:16PM

Only adding fuel to the fire for WSH backers,you're right  

rangerz2478 says:
02/05/10 02:17PM
I agree that it is 100% too easy to take the Caps, but in all honestly what do you expect the PL to be? If they make the PL -150, the ML will be close to -400.

So to be completely honest KS, what do you think the line SHOULD be? (ML and PL)
KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:19PM

Intense ROAD game only to return HOME to the wife and kids and then have to play the next day.

I agree

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:21PM

WSH win -300

WSH -1.5 win -165

I want FEAR when placing a bet,there's NO FEAR taking WSH -1.5 -110 today

shrimp1958 says:
02/05/10 02:21PM
Starting 2 Snow,might have some issues playing this one ...I live 20 miles from the arena...
KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:22PM

Thanks  Most cry when i do

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:24PM

They have snow plows 

rangerz2478 says:
02/05/10 02:24PM


True, but the PL's are pretdetermined based on the ML's or else they are setting up the opportunity for bettors to manipulate the prices by setting up a win win scenario.

A -165 PL would have to create a -380 or so ML.
Flutiemaniac341 says:
02/05/10 03:53PM

The thing you must consider though is that Washington hasnt exactly been a solid team throughout their run over the last two years. I have continually waited for this team to fail with such inept play on the backend and in goal. They can just overcome it with so much creativity up front. The same goes for teams like Boston and Calgary despite their hard work, these teams just cant compete on the scoresheet where the game is played. There r no style points in hockey.

Flutiemaniac341 says:
02/05/10 03:55PM
The thing about that 8-1 drubbing last time out is Atlanta was actually pretty decent in the game. they had nearly 20 shots in the first period and carried the play. The capitals just have that quick strike offense. I always have a hard time reading this caps team because they can win on talent alone.
NJDevils says:
02/05/10 06:41PM


Are you sure?
NJDevils says:
02/05/10 06:41PM
I saw it at -120 at the Red Rock was tempted but took the over for the same price
umgmu says:
02/05/10 03:04PM

Georgetown said the Game is ON .. Villanova is in town..

Atl is here to play the Caps , but the Hawks vs Wizards SAT night is in ?..

UNC vs Maryland Sunday afternoon ?

bracks says:
02/05/10 02:38PM

I would always take that puckline +1.5 w/ suck a HUGE difference in ML -300 to only 1 more goal (no OT) being a reg -110.

I could se Wash winning this in OT.

The real ? is Jersey a sure thing to win in reg?

LeRinkRat says:
02/05/10 03:12PM

the Vietnamese guy down at my Corner Convenience store at 7 am this morning....He likes his doggies that man does....

to BET on or as DINNER?

Starting to look like Michael Neuvirth may be in net for the Caps tonight...

Neuvirth-Shmoovirth. doesn't make a SHIT if it's him or Theo. both LeftWingLock and DailyFaceoff says Pavelec "probable" per the Thrashers radio play-by-play guy's tweet. he's a SIEVE.

ref: http://twitter.com/dankamal

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:39PM

If joe blow just got payed,he'll be in no hurry to lay -300.

He'll look for other games or cheaper angles in this one

The -1.5 -110 offers that,why would they offer that to him ???? 

If the line was -1.5 -165 he would still bet it but not as STRONG as he will the -110 bet.

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:54PM

Everytime it seems i pound a BIG DOG like this on PAYDAY's the fav sqeaks by.  

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:28PM

Exactly why i think the -1.5 -110 bet is FUCKING WORTHLESS

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:31PM

Then the line should be -380 then (using your math) and since it's not the -1.5 is still bogus. IMO

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:33PM

Tickets have already been sold,just to make sure the teams get there.

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:43PM

No reg bet in vegas, so we don't discuss them here.

I agree - Why not TOR and the OVER ????

N.J. has not played well lately,hence the trade yesterday.

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 02:45PM

joe's aren't in a hurry to bet a shitty team +1.5 against a FIREHOT team in WSH

We are the select few idiots

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 06:46PM

The over 6.5 makes my spidy senses tingle,after last night i'm thinking defense and playing keep away from WSH leads to the under 6.5

But i didn't play it so good luck man

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 06:16PM

Got mine -105 at the Palms, a win is a win

We'll see

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 04:16PM

It's a done deal at the Palms

ATL pl +1.5 -105

 

 

GL  

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 04:21PM

This is what this forum should be about

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 04:24PM

OVER 6.5 have hit at a HIGH rate this year seems that they're almost always -120 or higher

rangerz2478 says:
02/05/10 05:54PM
Atlanta +1.5 is now + odds on matchbook
bluesplayer says:
02/05/10 02:56PM





Makes sense..
wawakid says:
02/05/10 02:59PM
Here comes the STEAM 
wawakid says:
02/05/10 03:47PM

GL with the play Scorpio it worked out for you Sunday with Tampa Bay.

I personally only like the Caps TT OV 3.5 in this one tonight with Pavelec in the pipes for ATL. I think Wash can light him up like a Christmas tree. GL with your play BUD here's to another 4-3 Caps win. You're happy i'm happy.  

MaddenGuru says:
02/05/10 03:17PM

Atl +1.5 and Over 6.5

Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 03:24PM
Good call just smacked the over on it to go with the Atlanta play as well.....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 03:15PM
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 04:01PM
This is what they have been doing the last few games while looking like crap IMO....I put the over with the +1 play...If the Caps win by two or more it most likely will not be with defense....the two games prior to the 8-1 game were both one goal games. I see Atlanta playing their asses off tonight post trade to both prove to the world it was not all KOVIE and also for fear of getting blown out....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 03:01PM
Just played at BET365 Atlanta +1  200 to win 370  .......This sucker is convinced.....I want the value money and this way if it is a one goal game I still walk away with my coin in my pocket. Just love the way this game is shaping up now.  Washington has Pitt coming up as well...Big game to look ahead too....BOL with what you decide....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 03:03PM
Pardon me got that at my local...Meant to say saw the move at BET 365 to the -105  +265....Done deal....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 02:56PM
Starting to look like Michael Neuvirth may be in net for the Caps tonight...He has been called up....Theodore has been hot for them and might sit tonight....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 02:49PM
Agreed but Atlanta wins this game Vegas still makes out very well off of it IMO....I have neither seen nor heard any Atlanta backing in any form anywhere thus far till this convo here and the Vietnamese guy down at my Corner Convenience store at 7 am this morning....He likes his doggies that man does....
chillinmcm says:
02/05/10 02:26PM
hmmmm Caps won 8-1 last meeting, dunno about that
shrimp1958 says:
02/05/10 02:28PM

By 3:00 pm on Saturday we will have 2 feet of snow.....

That Nova /Hoya game @ Noon is in ??? Big Time..

Snow Plows will clear the main roads,side streets will B a joke...we got 2 feet in December,this area can't handle 2 inches of snow....

shrimp1958 says:
02/05/10 03:14PM
ThaCollecTAH says:
02/05/10 05:10PM

When the line hits 6.5 this year the Over is 8-0

iceburg14 says:
02/05/10 02:42PM


if you want to use angles like that, why are joe's like us in such a rush to lay +1.5 at even money?
iceburg14 says:
02/05/10 02:51PM
my local moved atlanta +1.5 from +100 to -105. we have movement people lol
Getty3 says:
02/05/10 03:53PM
Absolutely love the way you break down a line to show how the oddsmaker preys upon the preconceived perceptions of the bettor to make him sway in a certain direction. Excellent stuff. Post more often.
KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 07:18PM

Still early but since i was too scared to take the +260 with the amount of money being bet,they'll win outright and make me look as bad as the bettors who took WSH ml.

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 09:05PM

At WSH 4-1 in the 3rd i think i'm done. FUCK

 

 

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 09:34PM

Yes that was me and it's true.

But favs are STRONGER to start the season and then taper off around the All-Star game usually.

Fav have been killing it in all sports the last 2 years or so.

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 09:43PM

I don't know. This is what happens when you back bad teams vs. RED HOT teams.

When they didn't tie it at 2 i knew i was fucked.

SQUARES rejoice tonight 

KingScorpio says:
02/05/10 10:15PM

Highly unlikely just expect -140 juice on the 6.5

Lippsman says:
02/05/10 09:35PM

Wrong........shouldn't you be in the foots or baskets forum.

Kazual12 says:
02/06/10 08:07AM
interesting take on this game I will be steering clear but will watch and see what happens the numbers don't add up like you said.  Good luck with Atlanta +1.5.
Kazual12 says:
02/06/10 08:09AM
disregard my post it's early and I obviously am not with it seeing that this game happened last night! 
twoheart says:
02/05/10 07:50PM
A man can't ever look bad holding a winning ticket IMO...



Amen to that Polar_Bear
delasoul_iam says:
02/05/10 09:18PM
Betting against faves last two seasons=

KS I thought you noticed the changing trend last year, I can remember you stating that last year. I jumped off the "sinking dog ship" this season. Look at the people on the forum having succesful seasons, they all more or less play obvious faves. Faves are hitting 57.5% this season, home faves almost 59%, thats almost 5% change looking back to 2007/2008. Big fucking trend change

Hard to find the right dogs in those 42%, simply cant go against those numbers. If you cant beat them join them
MakinBacon says:
02/05/10 10:04PM
Any chance the CAPS get a over/under 7 in the near future?
LuckyGuy says:
02/05/10 09:22PM
nevermind leafs just stink
LuckyGuy says:
02/05/10 09:14PM
KS did you get TOR ml?  You mentioned them earlier somewhere.
wawakid says:
02/05/10 09:45PM
I hope so it's half over by the time you posted.
Rockdog says:
02/05/10 07:59PM
Let's go Thrashers


Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 07:22PM
  A man can't ever look bad holding a winning ticket IMO...
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 07:14PM
That was quick    1-0 Thrash Land
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 08:13PM
Atlanta will need at least 3 goals total in this game for it to have a chance to cash. Need two more...
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 09:36PM
This was a good call King....Sometimes you have to be on the wrong side of a correct call...50 shots for Atlanta, anyone who says they thought Neuvirth would stand on his head like that is full of shit...Glad I backed I up with the Over 6.5 though....That total over is now a crazy 9-0 on the season....
Polar_Bear says:
02/05/10 09:39PM
An Olympic year factors in to this....I have looked at some numbers in the past...The Bigger stars on the general faves keep their play amped up as the Olympics near for the most part. I have found that to be a factor as opposed to the all star break....Seems to paly out differently at this time of the season.......
shrimp1958 says:
02/06/10 06:53AM

Secratariat beat Mr Ed.....................

...Caps R 16-1,since Mr O got named Captain....

shrimp1958 says:
02/06/10 08:20AM
26 inches of snow,NW of DC,sporting events 2day will B very interesting,side streets R untouched....Hoya/Wizards games R in in ??? bigtime...
ThaCollecTAH says:
02/05/10 10:37PM

Nah man, this is why I love hockey...and baseball for that matter. The only two sports that AREN'T rigged.

dkd29 says:
02/05/10 09:25PM
too bad ATL will score another pt in the next 4 mins..........rigged just like Dev score 3 pts in 3 mins 
K4ngur13 says:
02/05/10 08:11PM
i'm staying the fck away from this game, good luck to you though
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User: KingScorpio
Joined: November 2005
Location: Nevada
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Occupation: Degenerate

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