Leprechaun's Blog

Posted Thursday, June 02, 2011 03:20 AM

Leprechaun's 2011 MLB System

Hello all!  Once again it's your friendly neighborhood Leprechaun back at it for another MLB season.  Now that we're almost a third of the way through the season, I think there are enough stats to truly start a performance based system.  During the offseason this year, I worked with a programmer to automate this system.  It allowed me to add in some stats to my equations that weren't possible to calculate by hand everyday.  I've been able to tweak my formulas and run entire season, game by game simulations that I hope prepare this system to do much better this year.

I ran this system here on this forum last year.  You can find the thread here:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100738380

If you read the first couple posts, it explains a lot, however there are a few big changes to how the system will run this year so I'll give a "short" explanation taken from last years thread with some modifications.

This system is based on how teams perform in a 2, 3, or 4 game series at home or on the road.  Based on a rather complicated formula, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series.  That means, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series.  Also, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series.  We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each play.  The plays are decided bas... [More]

Posted Wednesday, April 21, 2010 12:36 PM

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User: Leprechaun
Joined: March 2009
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