Lewstar2000's Blog

Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2014 04:48 PM

Vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600....

Braves are 11-0 in their last 11 home games.... Everyone seems to be cray about Dan Haren's last-out win over Angels--but he was miserable the five games previous, losing them all.  (Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.)  Of course, the Braves' starter, Mike Minor, has been a train-wreck lately, too.  Still, I think odds favoring Braves (-126) might be a tell.
Since I live inSoCal, I pay partic attention to locals, and I have to smirk at C.J. Wilson being -200 at home vs. Phils tonight--and I don't even know how Phillies have been doin' ately.  But CJ has been downright Double-A the last month--just hideous.  (I'd suggest he focus more on pitching than his nasty TV ads.)
Plus, the Halos have gone majorly south since they dropped 3 of 4 to the Dodgers.  I can smell at least 1.5+ plus on Phillies, and I wouldn't touch Haren with a 10-foot-pole never mind buy his dandruff goop.  Just saying.  
P.S.  Who else thinks Oakland and Lester are too much of a slam-dunk.  Yes. he's been CyYoung-worthy since joining A's and even beat Royals twice since his move, but other guy on bump, Guthrie, ain't no bottom-feeder, just threw his first CG, and the Royals have won 8 in a row and are playing in their friendly confines--still miss Harry Caray! Can you smell a trap-ola?.... 
Stay thirsty, my friends!  Remember, The Most Int. Man has never said, "My bad."  (Maybe I will later tonight, but I got t... [More]

Posted Tuesday, July 08, 2014 06:31 PM

Verlander Not Only Dating Kate Upton But Look Below!

Verlander is 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career interleague starts, including an 11-0 mark and 1.78 ERA in the last 13.

He's never lost to an NL team in Detroit, going 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 starts, and owns a 1.23 ERA in winning his last six at Comerica Park.

But, on the other hand, the Dodgers' starter Ryu, 6-1, has a 1.62 ERA in eight road games. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 4.66 ERA in eight home starts.

The Tigers have won 13 of their last 15 interleague home games, while the Dodgers have won nine of 10 on the road against AL teams.  Pick this one at your own peril!

Stay thirsty, my friends, and if you'dead-set on taking an LA team, go with the Angels, who are shooting for a record 15th straight home win.


Posted Friday, June 06, 2014 12:18 PM

Last 11 Road Games Fever Have Gone

Over.

Coincidentally, I posted on June 1 that the Sun was 11 and 0 Over at home.  They were hosting the Dream that night.

The highly affable Mugsy B quickly rang in that such a trend should not even be considered since the Sun was a shell of the team of past years.  Well, of course, Connecticut/Atlanta went way Over, and the hopeless Sun mugged Atlanta to boot.

No knock on Mugsy; he knows his s---, and I'm not that big on trends unless there's a 0 on one end.  Then I gotta go with the trend until the 0 is replaced with a 1--especially when the number other than 0 is large, like 11.  Stay thirsty my friends.


Posted Sunday, June 01, 2014 06:12 AM

The last 8 times Dream Has Played in Connecticut,

the total has gone over, and the Dream has gone over 5 of last 6 games vs. Eastern Conf.  For what it's worth; stay thirsty, my friends.


Posted Sunday, June 01, 2014 06:08 AM

A's -136 at Home vs. Halos BUT

Acc. to Covers,  "The Angels are a remarkable 10-1 in their last 11 games against the A's with Weaver starting. 

Under bettors can rejoice as well because Weaver's domination of the A's shows up on the scoreboard too. In the past 11 starts against the A's, Weaver has allowed only eight runs and has pitched at least 7.0 innings on eight occasions. Weaver has only given up an average of 5.7 hits per game and .7 runs per game in that stretch....Predictably, the Halos and the A's have gone under in 20 of Weaver's past 26 starts.... "For what it's worth; stay thirsty, my friends! 




Posted Tuesday, April 29, 2014 05:26 PM

Most-Interesting Stat When NYR is Up in a Series

From Covers: The Rangers clearly have the advantage; the team has dropped 11 consecutive games when up in a series dating to 2009. "That's an interesting stat," defenseman Dan Girardi told the New York Daily News. "I think it's just a matter of when we have a team down, we just have to find that next gear and never let off the gas."

Posted Monday, March 03, 2014 07:44 PM

In T' Wolves last 13 road games vs. teams w/ a losing

home record, Minny is 13 and 1 ATS.... Meanwhile, Nuggets are 2 and 10 ATS last 12 games and 0 and 5 ATS last 5 home games.

So of course go with Denver on the moneyline, right?


Posted Sunday, January 12, 2014 08:52 AM

Intriguing Factoids About 2 Divisional Games

San Francisco advanced to the Super Bowl last season behind Kaepernick, who had the worst game of his pro career against the Panthers in November.

  --The Panthers are 7-1 at home, with the only loss coming to Seattle 12-7 in Week 1.

Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight postseason defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career in Denver and is relishing the matchup with Manning.

  -- Manning is 9-11 in the postseason and has lost his first game on eight occasions.

  --San Diego led the league with 39 10-play drives during the regular season and had two more for TDs in last week's game.

 --Interestingly, Denver almost-always seems to be a slam-dunk Overs pick (this week 14 of 16 Covers experts pick them Over), but they've went Under in 5 of their last 8 games, and their last 3.

Good luck!


Posted Wednesday, January 01, 2014 05:44 AM

2 Holtz Factoids and an ESPN Trend Favoring Cardinals

Two Lou Holtz factoids and an ESPN trend that point to Stanford:

--Holtz noted that Big 10 teams have lost last 9 of 10 Rose Bowls they've been in.

--Holtz also pointed out that Stanford's senior Crusher Rusher, Tyler Gaffney, didn't even play football his junior year, opting for baseball instead--and it has taken Gaffney at least five games to get his legs back into top football shape.

--ESPN has been uncannily accurate in its "rating system predictions" that have appeared in a scroll at the bottom of the screen.  Wish I'd kept stats, but I'm confident if one played every bowl game so far, he or she would have picked not only the winner but covered the spread in most games.  Only three exceptions come to mind: Geo. Tech beating Ole Miss, Minny beating Syracuse, and Arizona State stomping Texas Tech by 22 (Ouch!).... ESPN is predicting Stanford by 3 over MSU.

Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 08:16 AM

At Least 1 of These 5 Monster Trends Has to Help!

--Lions 1 and 14 in Metrodome since 1997
--Pats def. Bills 19 of last 20
--Bolts have won 10 of past 12 vs. KC (but got to like Chiefs +9.5!)
--Eagles allowed 21 or fewer pts.10 of past 11 vs. 'Boys
--"Double-Check Guy" 8 and 1 vs. Bears; Cutler 3 and 10 vs Pack.

Good luck and may Katherine Webb "disrupt" your next dream!


Posted Monday, November 11, 2013 05:35 PM

Sharps Moving Spread on MNF

According to a Sportsbook.com oddsmaker who shall remain incognito, Sharps came in early on the home dog, which has been an ongoing trend throughout the week.

"Last Monday, we got sharp bet on Tampa Bay, so moved to 3," confirms the oddsmaker. "Saturday, we got another wiseguy play on Bucs, so moved to Miami -2.5."

"This morning we went from 2.5 to Dolphins -2 and that’s the current number," he added. "We discussed going to 1.5 but we haven’t gone there yet."

Posted Saturday, October 19, 2013 10:54 AM

Kirk Herbstreit Tweet; He Called Mizzou Last Week

@KirkHerbstreit : Upset alerts for the weekend. Relax!!! Just saying games that could be closer then ya think. WVU/TT, IU/UM, Tenn/SCar, WF/MD, UW/ASU, MZ/UF

Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 05:58 AM

Amazin' Packers/Ravens Stat

According to Covers.com:

- The Baltimore Ravens are 13-0 in their last 13 home games against NFC opponents.
- The Packers have lost five of the last six games on the road dating back to Week 11 of the 2012.

Just sayin'.  Good luck and Stay Thirsty My Friends!

Posted Saturday, October 12, 2013 05:33 AM

Kirk Herbstreit Loves Mizzou

Say what you want about ESPN's pretty-boy analyst, he knows his stuff.  I try to catch his take on games whenever I can, and I just saw him waxing enthusiastically about Missouri versus the Bulldogs.

I remember him going against the other dudes big-time before the Va Tech-Bama match-up.  The rest liked the at-home Hokies' chances for an upset, and Kirk said (paraphrasing), "I don't think Alabama will have much trouble at all dispatching Beamer's Boys."

Kirk said he thinks Missouri has a good chance because they're big and strong and looking to put themselves in the BCS conversation AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT, Georgia is riddled with injuries--esp. to top 2 running backs and top 3 receivers.

I'm just sayin'.... Good luck, and Stay Thirsty My Friends.


Posted Thursday, October 10, 2013 06:03 AM

Almost-Impossible-to-Believe Verlander Stats

  • Tigers are 1-10 in Verlanders last 11 starts.
  • Tigers are 1-10 in Verlanders last 11 starts on grass.

Taken from Covers.  Not sure this game is going to be a replica of yesterday's new-kid-on-the-bump vs. a-king-of-the-hill.

Not gonna touch this one, and my condolences to those of you who had Bucs/Cards under 6.5--which is the current number of this one.



Posted Sunday, September 22, 2013 08:26 AM

CJ Has Won His Last 9 and Overs Are 9-1-1 in Last 11

Plus, he's won his last 9 (and with 17 wins, is only behind Scherzer),and the Angels are 6 and 0 in Wilson's last 6 starts.  Plus, a textbook example of the offense supporting a pitcher is the Halos' scoring for CJ.  They've scored 66 runs in last 10 games he's pitched.

Yes, King Felix is pitching for Seattle, but the Angels eat him alive.  The only difference this time is that Felix hasn't pitched in 20 days; maybe he's come up with a strategy to stop the bleeding vs. the Angels.

The Over/Under is only 7, which is one of those very-fishy numbers. But I'm going Over since it been bery, bery good for me when CJ's on the bump.


Posted Thursday, September 19, 2013 04:57 AM

On Paper, Rays Should be -150 Over Rangers, Not -105

At least!

Tampa Bay's Matt Moore is 7-0 with a 1.90 ERA in last 10 starts.
Texas has lost Yu Darv's last 6 starts.  But that's why they play
the games!


Posted Tuesday, September 03, 2013 08:20 AM

2 Moderate Faves that Don't Pass Recency Test

Might hink twice before taking moderate favorites in two AL West Coast games:

Tampa Bay (-131) vs. Angels--

--Angels starter Jason Vargas beat the Rays on Thursday with seven innings of two-hit shutout ball. Los Angeles has won five consecutive games and nine of its last 10, while Tampa Bay’s loss in the opener was its eighth in nine games.... Moore hasn't pitched  in over a month--always a dicey prop.

--Moore allowed four runs and eight hits in four innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Durham on Thursday. He had won six consecutive decisions before suffering the injury that led to a stint on the disabled list.  (Realize minor league prep games usually mean nothing.).... .Moore will run into an Angels (64-72) offense that has finally clicked during an underachieving season.They recorded 16 hits in Monday's win and have scored 50 runs while winning nine of 10.

--Vargas has allowed one run in 13 1/3 innings while winning back-to-back starts. He gave up one run and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings while beating Seattle before handcuffing the Rays in his ensuing outing.

--Vargas is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA in his last four starts against the Rays.

Rangers vs. the Oakland Colons (-140)

--Cold pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Bartolo Colon is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA over his last four starts.

--Rookie Perez is going for his sixth consecutive win overall and fifth straight on the road. The 22-year-old... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 01, 2013 09:07 AM

Can You Afford Not to Play This too-Cheap Parlay!


1)  Yankees--Pettitte owns O's, and he and Yanks are as hot as Baltimore is cold.

Pettitte has won eight straight regular-season decisions against the Orioles and hasn't lost to them in the Bronx in over 14 years as he tries to help the Yankees complete a three-game sweep Sunday.... Pettitte is 8-0 with a 2.99 ERA in his last 11 starts against the Orioles (71-63), not including a loss in Game 2 of last year's division series. He's 9-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his last 11 home starts against them since July 5, 1999.... Wei-Yin Chen (7-7, 3.76) is hoping to bounce back in September after going 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in five August outings

Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte has won three consecutive starts while surrendering just one earned run over 19 2/3 innings in that span. The Yankees are 10-1 in Pettitte's last 11 home starts against Baltimore, and Yanks are 10 and 1 last 11 home games.

2) St. Louis Cardinals--

Joe Kelly is 6-0 with a 2.24 ERA in nine starts since joining the rotation July 6, and he's allowed three runs on two homers over 18 innings while winning three straight outings overall.... Kris Johnson is slated to make his first career start for the Pirates in the finale.  (Tough team to make MLB starting pitcher debut against!)

Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly has won six consecutive decisions and has allowed two runs or fewer eight times over that stretch.

Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 06:26 PM

Kershaw's Philly Phailure; Angels Pad Wise Wallets

Way earlier today, I posted that Clayton is best pitcher in beisbol, but the Phillies give him phits; 0 and 4 in 8 starts, with an ERA of 4.31.  One of 2 NL teams he hasn't beaten....
I added that LA has best streak in decades, 41 of 49, and has won 19 of last 20 road games--so I'm taking runline.  Got hammered by a couple Stevie Wonders who wondered why I could possibly go against CK. I wasn't!...
Why do Angels continue to be major faves at home against inferior teams!?  They are disgraceful, and wiseguys must be making big bucks against them.
Angels are 6 and 15 last 21 versus teams below .400 win %.  And they've lost their last 5 at home. Yet Vegas makes Halos -195???
Best bet, tho, is Over 8.  When you've never heard of either pitcher--Keuchel/Richards--a good strategy is take Overs.  This game may end up with a higher score than some NFL games tonight!
Good Luck and Stay Thirsty My Friends!


Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 08:42 AM

Phils Love Kershaw; Dog That Should be Fave!

Clayton could well be best pitcher in beisbol, but no thanks to Phils, who love to see him on the bump.  0 and 4 vs Phils in 8 starts with a 4.31 ERA.  One of 2 NL teams CK has not beaten.  Yeah, I know LA has won 19 out of last 20 road games and has the best MLB in several decades, winning 41 out of last 49--so maybe Phils might make a good runline bet at least.

I know Chris Sale has righted his ship, but his mound foe, Twins' Andy Albers has been fantastic.  Only 6th pitcher in MLB history to throw 8+ shutout innings first two starts.  Shut out Indians, then gave up 4 hits in 8.3 innings against much-improved Royals.  Another good runline at very least.

Good luck--and Stay Thirsty My Friends. Personally, I'm on Reds ML, which is a very fair price considering Latos has been lights out since All-Star break--and their excruciating bottom of 9th come-from-ahead loss to Brewers.


Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 09:48 AM

Please Tell Me Why This Overs Isn't a Slam Dunk!

LAA/NY  8.5   Heck, Soriano and Trout may account for virtually all the runs needed in the first 5 innings!

Not a big fan of Overs/Unders; much prefer to pick sides--and, by the way, my upset of day is CWS over Twins, with Sox newcomer Rienzo on the bump.  He's been lights out on his 2 road starts (2 runs to Detroit, and 3 to Cleveland--both Quality Starts, and Vegas is giving him no respect, tho line is falling as I type.

About 6 or 7 times a year, I get a feeling that I'm on a can't miss, and the Yankee game is one of these.  I don't use O/U much on Streak Survivor, but did for this game.
.
Two guys on the bump today aren't ones you want to use in an Under situation.  Phil Hughes has been a Home Run Derby pitcher most of year, and CJ Wilson has done all right lately, but he's good to give up 3 or 4 runs--against "normal" teams. 

The Yankees' hitters, tho are hotter than ScarJo in a thong, and nothing wrong with Angels' hitters lately; the pitchers, even The Weave yesterday, put them way behind early--and they should
feast on Hughes. Any other Yanks' pitcher, and blazin' NY would be more than just -115.

Good luck my friends and Stay Thirsty!


Posted Tuesday, August 06, 2013 07:52 PM

Wait--Miley Beat Rays 7-0 Last Week & Guess What!

Not only did Wade Miley shut-out TB last week in Fla, 7 to 0, but he's facing same pitcher, Jeremy Hellickson, at home tonight.  And you guessed it--not only are Rays faves (-118), but 15 of 18 Covers Experts on Tampa Bay.

Oh, well, on further review, I can see why.  "Miley improved to 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA in his last five by allowing 2 hits over 6 1/3 innings in Wednesday's 7-0 win at Tampa Bay. He struck out 8 and walked 5.The left-hander has held opponents to a .198 average in his last 5 outings."  And Rays have scored 7 runs in last 4 starts.

Before betting trailer house on D-Backs, in the interests of full disclosure, Hellickson going for 5th straight road win and Rays best team in interleague play this season, 12 and 3.




Posted Tuesday, August 06, 2013 07:26 PM

Kuroda Phenomenal! Still a Dog? Vs. Pale Hose?

Hiroki given up 2 runs in last 33 innings, and only given up runs in one game of last 5 on the bump.  4-1 over last 9 starts.

Opposing pitcher, Chris Sale, is no dog, but he's 1 and 9 last 10, and CWS won its first game in 11 starts last night.

Over/Under is 6.5.  No argument with that, but hard to buy Sox as faves (-118) even if slight.  Yes, the Alex Circus is in town, but I think it's about time for Grandy to light a fire under teammates.


Posted Sunday, August 04, 2013 07:41 AM

One Problem With Taking Hot Angels at -142

Buehrle is hotter than ScarJo in a thong! Consider: "Buehrle has yielded seven hits and struck out 11 over 16 innings of his last two starts. He stifled Oakland last Tuesday, 5 to 0, giving up 5 hits in 7 innings.

Also, C.J. fell off the wagon last Tuesday in Halos' most-devastating loss of season, in which they blew a couple of big leads. "Wilson (11-6, 3.48) allowed five earned runs over 36 innings to win four of five starts before he gave up six runs and a season-high 11 hits while throwing 109 pitches in four innings of a wild 14-11, 10-inning loss at Texas on Tuesday."

Rooting for Angels, but never really know what to expect when two lefties toe the bump.


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