Lewstar2000's Blog

Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 10:20 PM

Ducks Are the Pits!

No reason why Ducks should be 4-pt. favorites, even if they are playing in Pit.  UCLA has won 9 of last 10 against Ducks, including 4 of 5 in Pit. 

Ducks are a train wreck.  They've lost 5 in a row after a good start and are 0 and 5 ATS as home favorites.

Back in the day, Oregon ruined Bruins at Pit, but UCLA is 10 and 3 ATS versus Ducks and 5 and 2 ATS at the Pit.

A team on the rise versus a team that has quit as far as I can tell.

Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 09:43 PM

Sharks Smell Blackhawks Blood!

Looks like an SJS win at a decent price.  Not always big on trends but consider following:

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  --Sharks are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.

  --Sharks are 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite            -110 to -150.

 Sharks are 14-3 in their last 17 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

    Blackhawks are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in San Jose

AND Sharks have given up only 10 goals in last 8 games.
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Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 06:08 PM

Celts Best Road Team in NBA/Under with Garnett?

Yes, Magic is 16 and 4 at home, but Boston is 16 and 6 on
the road.

Think the best bet is Under, even though public (apparently) has taken number up 2 points (to 189.5) since total opened.  Last 6 have gone Under, and Under is 6 and 1 at Orlando.  Plus, return of Garnett has
led to relatively low-scoring games for Celtics.


Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 05:38 PM

Fear the Badgers!

Keep in mind that Wisconsin is no. #16 compared to Purdue's #12.  Also, Wisky is 16 and 4, compared to Purdue's 16 and 3.  And that Wisconsin losses have all been as visitors and close except for first one: by 13 to Gonzaga (very early in season). 7 to MIchigan State,
4 to Green Bay (I kid you not!), and 9 to Ohio State.

Also, Wisky has a higher power rating and SOS: 11/13 to Purdue's 15/26.

I think 9 1/2 points is generous under these circumstances.

Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 04:34 PM

For What It's Worth--Seton Hall

Pirates have beaten USF the last 7 times they've played--at least.   Coverss' matchups go back only to January 2006.

Posted Wednesday, January 27, 2010 09:43 PM

Slim Edge to BYU?

Only edge I see is that BYU at home in January beat UNLV by 4.  Three days later, NM at home lost to UNLV by 12.  Significant?
Depends on how much cred one puts in relative scores.

Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 06:43 PM

Gotta Like K-State at Baylor

Underdog 9 and 1 last 10.  K-State 3 and 0 versus Top 25; Bears 0 and 1. Baylor 11 straight wins at home.

Yes, Baylor beat Okla. St. at home, and K-State just lost to OSU, but think the loss was a major letdown after K-State's huge win over Texas.

A more realistic comparison might be both teams' recent outcomes at Colorado.  Baylor lost by 7; K-State won by 6.

Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 06:20 PM

Devils-Ottawa: Colliding Streaks

Devils have beaten Sens last 9 times, outscoring them 31 to 16, and winning last 4 in Ottawa.  But hot Sens have won their last 6.

Maybe deciding factor is Devils are slumping, 2 and 4 in last 6, scoring only 11 goals.

Don't like betting under 5, but that may be the play, if any, in this head-scratcher.

Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 05:20 PM

MSU Holds All the Cards

Sparty has beaten Wolverines 16 out of last 19.  Also, only common opponent in January has been Northwestern.  Michigan lost by 6 at home to Wildcats; on the road, MSU thrashed NW.

Izzo said, "People ask, `Is he as passionate about it? Does he hate them as much?' The answer is yes to all those things."

Michigan coach said, "It would be great for us (to win). It's not the end of the season if we don't."

Seems like MSU is clear choice.


Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 09:51 PM

Vancouver Has the Home Court Advantage.

Yes, Buffalo comfortably leading division, but they've lost 3 in a row, and they haven't won in Vancouver since 1999 (albeit only 5 games).
Still, Vancouver has been especially tough at home, going 7-1-1 in its last 9 and 21-7-1 overall at GM Place.

Also, like the Overs since both teams have went under 6 (total) in last 5 games.


Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 05:17 PM

Rockets' Home Streak vs. Hotlanta

Rockets actually favored by 1 at this time.  Must be because they have won last 10 at home against Hawks and 16 of last 17.  However,
these are not your father's Hawks.

Tough call for me.

Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 04:36 PM

Seems like Pens Should Be Favored

Hard for me to figure out why Rangers are very slightly favored (as I type this), given the fact they have lost to Pens last 6 times. And NY has been shut-out 4 of last 7 games. Law or averages?  Or maybe that Lundqvist is 12-2-1 with a 1.83 goals-against average in 15 starts against the Penguins at home.  Or Pens are 2 and 9 in their last 11 at N.Y.

Posted Saturday, January 23, 2010 03:37 PM

Does RPI Factor into Horns-Conn Game?

Texas no. 7 in RPI; Conn. no. 24.  Texas is 3 and 1 versus teams in top 50 RPI; Conn. is 1 and 4 versus top 50 RPI teams.

But Conn is no. 1 in country in Strength of Schedule.  Just trying to look for an edge in this puzzler.

Been around long enough to know that teams in Texas' position usually come back strong after being deflowered.


Posted Saturday, January 23, 2010 03:32 PM

Cats are Orlando's B------!

Orlando owns the Cats!  Magic has won 9 of last 10--maybe more.  Covers' match-ups stop at last 10.

Posted Friday, January 22, 2010 04:36 PM

Wofford/Charleston Dilemma

Both teams have won their last 6.  One of Charleston's wins, of course, was at home against North Carolina.  Seems as if Charleston deserves to be 1.5-point faves.

However, if you check out RPI (power ratings that NCAA uses to help determine who's in Final 65), Wofford is 107 and Charleston is 233.  AND Wofford is 9 and 0 versus teams with an RPI over 200.  I'm just
saying, trying to pick this one is harder than making a case for Snooki on "Jersey Shore"!


Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 07:19 PM

Isles Are the Upset Special

Hey, Islanders are hotter than a fox in a forest fire.  They are going for 5th straight win, 7 and 0 versus last 7 teams with a winning record, they chased Brodeur yesterday; and they are up against Pens' hurtin-for-certain back-up goalie.

Yes, Isles have a history of flat-lining in Pittsburgh, but they definitely don't deserve to be -185 dogs!


Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 05:26 PM

Follow-up on Pearl Peril Post

Plus, Vols have beaten Bama only twice in last 19 tries at Alabama.


Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 05:17 PM

Go With Pearl at your own Peril!

Seems like almost everyone likes Tennessee.  Didn't they see "The Blind Side"!  Keep in mind that although Vols are getting 2 of their 4 bad boys back, all their recent heroics (beating Kansas and beating Ole Miss in OT) occurred AT HOME.  Vols have not been on road since infamous New Year's Day cop stop that resulted in 4 players being Pearl-Jammed.

Also, Bama lost to KState by only 13 at a neutral site.  I'm just saying the Vols need to prove their invincibility on the road before I'm buying into all this recent hype.  You'd think Vols should be 5- or 6-point favorites considering all their glowing press.


Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 02:44 AM

60% Even With Calgary Catastrophe

Yeah, I was the one responsible for the worst-pick-of-the-day yesterday--giving compelling reasons why Flames had a major
shot against Sharks--and then watching in horror as they lost by
almost 3 field goals.

And I'm also the one who posted reasons why Carolina would trounce the Lightning.

Still, I posted 3 winners, as noted below, which salves the embarrassment a bit:

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Everyone likes Wild, even though they've lost last 10 at Dallas and last 11 of 12 in Texas, and favorite is 9 and 2 in last 11.  Even Vegas doesn't like Dallas that much, - 118....Law of averages?  Don't know, but I got to go with Stars--especially after their impressive come-from-behind shootout win over Wings.


Florida plus Under seems to be the way to go.


Like Tony K., I'll try harder tomorrow!


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Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 08:46 PM

There are Compelling Reasons to Back Flames

If you don't think Calgary can lose 5 in a row, take Flames.  You'll.  definitely get a price.

And there is some gist for taking Calgary.  They are 6 and 1 on 0 days' rest; the underdog is 4 and 0 in last 4 meetings.  Sharks are 1 and 4 as both favorite and home favorite when -150 to -200.  And Flames' goalie Kiprusoff is 6 and 2 in last 8 versus Sharks.

Seems like Flames might be worth a Flyer!

Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 07:27 PM

Wild Must be a Law-of-Averages Pick!

Everyone likes Wild, even though they've lost last 10 at Dallas and last 11 of 12 in Texas, and favorite is 9 and 2 in last 11.  Even Vegas doesn't like Dallas that much, - 118.

Law of averages?  Don't know, but I got to go with Stars--especially after their impressive come-from-behind shootout win over Wings.

Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 07:09 PM

Florida-Under Seems to be the Play

Thrashers 1 and 8 in last 9 on road, and 2 and 12 in last 14 as dogs.
Florida 9 and 3 in last 12 as favorites, and favorite has won 24 of last 32.

Unders Seems even more likely.  10 of last 12 in FLA have gone under, and total is a juicy 6.  Good luck to all!


Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 06:51 PM

Carolina Most Definitely the Trendy Pick!

TB 1 and 9 last 10 versus Canes, and Carolina 8 and 0 last 8 at home.

Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 04:51 PM

Take Phoenix at your Own Peril!

Grizzlies going for record (for them) 9th straight home win; Phoenix hasn't won on road since end of November.  I guess Suns could win,
but can't be a Sun Worshipper in this situation.

Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 03:38 PM

Bulls Have Warriors Number?

Bulls have beaten Warriors last 4, including most recent, 96 to 91 in OT.   Seems as if Bulls-Under ticket would work, especially since Golden State appears to be dressing out 8 today, including 2 Development players.


Posted Sunday, January 17, 2010 07:31 PM

Reasons to Take Ducks Hosting Calgary

All signs point to Ducks' victory--Flames are 0-8-2 in last 10 in Anaheim, Ducks have won last 6 at home, Iginla is out, and Anaheim
is slight Vegas favorite.

I've misread signs before, though....

Posted Sunday, January 17, 2010 01:04 PM

Huskies/Michigan RPI/SOS

Connecticut's RPI is 15; its SOS is 1 in country.  Michigan's RPI is 152; its SOS is 121. 

I do give a bit of weight to such numbers when they are so far apart; thus, I think Huskies will end 3-game losing streak and, in effect, cover spread.


Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 04:18 PM

Brodeur Slight Favorite Even Though

the Devils, who have split two meetings with the Rangers, haven't had much success at in Manhattan recently, going 2-4-2.

The Rangers' home advantage against New Jersey has been partly thanks to the superb play of Henrik Lundqvist, who is 10-2-1 with a 1.45 GAA and three shutouts in 13 home meetings.

A member of the Swedish Olympic team, Lundqvist has started 11 of the last 12 games, going 8-1-2 with a 1.82 GAA. He made 29 saves, including one on a penalty shot, in Saturday's 3-1 win at Boston.



Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 04:04 PM

Dueling Trends in SJ at Phoenix

Since it's a flat-out tie odds-wise as I type this, I should probably stay away from a side especially given the following trends: Coyotes 10 and 1 in last 11 as a home dog (of course, they are not a dog at this moment), and Sharks 10 and 2 in last 12.

But home team is 9 and 4 in last 13, and Sharks are 2 and 5 in last 7 in Phoenix.

Best bet might be over 5 since it appears that both teams are going with back-up goalies.


Posted Monday, January 11, 2010 05:53 PM

Surprising Pens/Wild Trends

 Pens' record versus Minnesota in last 8 is 1-6-1.  Moreover, Wild goalie Niklas Backstrom loves to play Pittsburgh, and is 2-0-0 with a 0.96 goals-against average in last 3 against the Penguins, and made 34 stops in a 2-1 win at Pittsburgh on Oct. 31.

Wild may be tuckered out after greatest comeback in history in last game versus Blackhawks (came back from 5 to 1 deficit in 3rd period to win), and Vegas likes Pittsburgh.    Good luck to those of you who think they've got the winner!

Posted Monday, January 11, 2010 05:23 PM

Celtics Ready to Roll!

Boston has played 14 of last 19 away from home, including 3 of last 4.  They've won their last 6 at home.  Think Celts will enjoy home-cooking, particularly baked beans.  Plus. Doc Brown said after Celts' last loss to Hawks, "They are the superior team."

Seems like a definite win sitch for Boston, but will they cover the spread, especially without Garnett?  Personally, I see all signs pointing to a Boston Blowout.

Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 12:25 PM

Brady's Lowest Completion % is Versus, Guess Who!

Brady has a pedestrian 81.5 passer rating in three games against the Ravens, throwing for 687 yards and three TDs with one interception, and his 54.0 completion percentage against them is his lowest versus any opponent.... Guess the Pats will have to rely on running game, handing off to Dillon a lot.  Oh, that's right; Dillon doesn't play for them anymore.  Well, then hand-offs to whoever their running backs are.

Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 12:14 PM

Last Week, One Team Rested, the Other Played

Let's hope for the integrity of pro football, and us punters, that Green Bay win--as they played their regulars the great majority of the game while the Arizona Sissies went with their scrubs.

Never mind the fact that Green Bay is hotter than a fox in a forest fire.  And last week's game didn't cause them to lose any of their mojo--unlike the Sissies.

Posted Saturday, January 09, 2010 04:22 PM

Big Enough Trend to Back Bengals?

Cincinnati has beaten SU the last 9 visiting underdogs.


Posted Thursday, January 07, 2010 07:33 PM

Huge Trends in Kings/Wings

I know Kings are hot, but Wings have beaten Kings 21 of last 23 times, and 10 out of last 11 in Staples.  Probably why Detroit is now slight faves even though Kings would seem to be the play. I'm just sayin....

Posted Thursday, January 07, 2010 07:06 PM

Charlotte/Knicks Total

Both teams have averaged 108 points in last 4, and 3 of 4 have been as visitors in both cases.  So I have to go against trends and fact that both Covers #1 Team Experts pick Unders--and go Overs.  Yeah, I realize public has raised Total by 2, but that's my play, and I'm sticking to it!


Posted Wednesday, January 06, 2010 04:25 PM

NO/OKC Law of Averages Play?

Hornets have beaten Thunder last 10 times they've played.  (In fact, Durant has never beat NO.)  And Hornets on a 3-game win streak, so Vegas makes OKC 4.5 faves.  Go figure.

Posted Monday, January 04, 2010 06:54 PM

Utah State/Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech 6 and 0 at home; Utah State 2 and 4 as visitors.  And Louisiana Tech's RPI is 83 versus Utah State's 131.  Seems like a Lou Tech victory, but why are they favored at home by only 2?

I smell a trap-ola.  I wouldn't touch this game with the proverbial 10-foot pole--at least the spread.  I do like the Overs a tad, though, given Utah State has averaged 77 in last 4 and Lou Tech, 82.


Posted Friday, January 01, 2010 05:11 PM

Rose Bowl Total a Gift

Hey, Oregon could hit 50 by itself.  In last 6 games, Ducks have averaged 43 (against likes of Stanford, USC, and Arizona) and total has averaged 74 in these games.

I'm sure Ohio State has a solid defense, but Ducks scored 38 against
Purdue and 47 against USC--the two teams that beat Buckeyes.

Nothing in life or sports guaranteed, But I'm confident Oregon will
salvage some of cred Pac-10 has lost lately.

Posted Friday, January 01, 2010 04:02 PM

Over a Gift in Rose Bowl

Hey, Oregon could hit 50 by itself.  In last 6 games, Ducks have averaged 43 (against likes of Stanford, USC, and Arizona) and total has averaged 74 in these games.

I'm sure Ohio State has a solid defense, but Ducks scored 38 against
Purdue and 47 against USC--the two teams that beat Buckeyes.

Nothing in life or sports guaranteed, But I'm confident Oregon will
salvage some of cred Pac-10 has lost lately.