Lewstar2000's Blog

Posted Friday, July 30, 2010 06:38 PM

Lopsided Yankees-Rays Stats, For What They're Worth

TB, 10 and 1 last 11 home games
Overs, 10 and 1 last 11 between teams
Overs, 4 and 0 last 4 at Tropicana

And, of course, ARod has 2 dingers off Wade Davis in 8 AB's.

Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 07:34 PM

Streaker with 16 Going Tonight For 17 and $1,000

Yes, Funaki has 16 in a row and he took Padres at -130.  At first glance, looks like a good choice.  San Diego is 7 and 0 last 7 times pitcher Richard has toed bump in San Diego, and 7 and 0 last 7 times Richard has pitched right after Padres scored 2 or less in a game.

HOWEVER, Padres have fallen from -130 faves to only -106.  Maybe because Dodgers are 5 and 1 last 6 against team with a winning record, and 10 and 3 when Kuroda starts as a favorite. (Of course, Dodgers aren't favored--yet!)   In any case, odds drop must be a bit disconcerting to Funaki at least.

P.S.  Hope you don't have Mets/Cards Under (6.5).  Let's just put it this way, Santana is facing Pujols for the second time in 1st inning!

Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 06:12 PM

Twins -134 !!!

I've looked at this game every which way, and the only reason why I can figure a hurtin' team is favored by so much over a team that's trying to be first team in quite a while to win 10 games in a row twice is that Vegas going by the adage, "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then."

I mean, "Sox Gavin Floyd is trying to win a fourth straight start for the first time in his career. Floyd has surrendered one run or fewer in six of seven starts, and the White Sox have won the last five times he's taken the mound.

On other hand, Twins Francisco Liriano has not enjoyed this type of success lately. The AL pitcher of the month in April, Liriano is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last five outings."

Good luck to all you blind-squirrel rooters.  Hard to believe you have to pay substantial juice on such a longshot.

Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 05:43 PM

Marlins a Live Dogfish

Is Strasburg's "magic" enough to overcome a ton of negatives, including fact he's won one of last 5, though he got one total run of support in 4 of 5 games?

On other hand, Marlins (+108) have Nolasco going for fifth straight win--posting a 3.54 ERA during streak and striking out 34 in 28 innings.  And Marlins are 5 and 1 in Nolasco's last 6 starts versus

Plus, Washington has lost 13 of 16 in F-L-A, and they have won 2 of last 15 road games.

Interestingly, Overs are 11 and 1 in Nolasco's last 12 home starts.  Does this stat trump low Strasburg-influenced Under of 7?

Finally, Larry Ness likes Nats :)

Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 04:35 PM

Houston -106 Generous Gift or Serious Trap?

Bucs are 1 and 9 last 10 versus Stros, and have lost last 9 series to Houston.  And Houston has won 22 of last 28 vs. Bucs, as well as 4 of last 6 games, including 3-game sweep of Bucs.

Also, Houston is starting Brett Myers, only MLB hurler to go at least 6 innings in every start (170 this season (6-6, 3.41 ERA).  Zach Duke, coming off DL, pitching for Pirates.  He is 3 and 8 this year with a 5.49 ERA and 2 and 4 career vs. 'Stros.

Odds on this game seem almost as whack as White Sox-Twins odds.  As I said on this board yesterday, Sox were a live dog, on an 8-game win streak.  Now they have 9 in a row and have Gavin Floyd on bump, who is hotter than a Taylor Swift-Alicia Keys makeout session.  Still, Twins are -133.  

Have to research this one a bit more to see if there's any justification for such favoritism.

Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 03:32 PM

Why Carpenter Is "Only" -123 at Home Vs. Dodgers.

You'd think the Cards would be a more substantial fave considering fact that Carpenter is 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven starts against the Dodgers, and 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three outings against them at St. Louis' new Busch Stadium.

HOWEVER, opposing pitcher, Kershaw pitches well vs. Cards, too:

2-0 with a 2.27 ERA in five career starts versus the Cardinals, and 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two outings at St. Louis.

Plus, Carpenter's last two outings have been train wrecks: lost both giving up 12 runs in 9 innings.  Has the All-Star break restored his

Obviously, the sharps need either Paul the Octopus or to wait a Carpenter start or two.  Maybe the Under is the way to go for degens.

Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 03:13 PM

Storm Warnings Re: -172 Lincecum

Yes, Giants have been playing better lately (not saying much), but consider the following before betting trailer rent on Lincecum:

--Lincecum has a 5.04 ERA in 4 starts against Mets, and they are 1 of 2 NL teams he hasn't beaten.
--Lincecum's ERA last three starts (1 and 2) is 5.06; Mets' starter, Dickey has a 3.86 ERA in last three.  Dickey has been struggling lately, but Giants have yet to see his knuckler.
--Mets 5 and 1 last 6 in San Francisco.
--Mets 12 and 4 last 16 games vs. SF.
--Beltran back for Mets, and he's 4 for 7 vs. Lincecum.

I'm just saying..... actually, writing.

Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 02:46 PM

White Sox a Live Dog at Twins?

Would seem so, despite a couple of possible negative indicators. 
After all, the Sox have won 8 in a row, which usually doesn't merit
being a +107 dog.  Some might point to All-Star break as a possible hot-streak-enemy.  Yet, Twins have lost 4 of last 5, scoring but 13 runs in the process.

Still, Sox are 21 and 5 last 26 games vs. right-hander, and they've won 11 of last 12 vs. team with winning record.  And they've won 25 of last 30.

Hot Sox starter, Danks, has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 5 of last 6 and pitched a 2-hit complete game win in last start, 1-0, vs. Angels. ONE neg is Sox are 0 and 6 in Danks' last 6 vs. Twins.

Twins are 21 and 5 in starter Slowey's las 26 starts, BUT Slowey not good vs. Sox: 2 and 3 with a 5.85 ERA in last 6 starts vs. Sox.

And must admit that Sox are 3 and 12 last 15 versus Twins.  Still, I think Sox are on a major roll, and I'm on them till they falter or Ozzie goes postal.

Finally, total might be the way to go for wafflers.  Last 8 between two in Minny have gone Under, and 8 of Sox last 9 road games have gone Under.

Posted Saturday, July 10, 2010 05:22 PM

Are Cards a Live Dog at Houston?

Interestingly, Houston is a decent favorite at home (-125) vs. St. Louis.  A closer inspection reveals why.
Houston's starter, Brett Myers, set a franchise record by going at least 6 innings in his first 17 starts of season.  Plus, Myers is 7 and 0 at home this year.
On other hand, many think St. Louis' stop-gap starter, Suppan, is way over the hill.  Hasn't won since last September and is 0 and 6 with a 7.73 ERA in last 22 trips to mound, including 9 starts.  Plus, Cards are 1 and 4 last five in meetings and 3 and 7 last 10 in Houston.

Very hard to pick against Pujols and Holliday in Houston Homer Haven, though.  Tough call!

Posted Saturday, July 10, 2010 04:28 AM

BoSox-Jays Not Rays!

Too much Boone's Farm!

Posted Saturday, July 10, 2010 04:27 AM

BoSox-Rays a Textbook Trap?

Very interesting that Boston going for 8th straight win in Toronto--and yet Jays are slight favorites (-113).  
So if you like BoSox, you can get a nice price.  However, this kind of scenario smells like oddsmakers expecting a Lack(ey)luster performance....

Posted Thursday, July 08, 2010 07:02 AM

Covers Has Carpenter vs. Chacin Tomorrow;

everyone else has Carpenter vs. Uvaldo.  Big difference.  Though after blowing two big leads in last games, might not matter who Rocks throw against shell-shocked, traumatized Cardinals!

Posted Wednesday, July 07, 2010 07:53 PM

Royals Live Dog!!!

Believe it or not, KC has won its last 4 series (including Seattle, whom they play tonight), and they are 4 and 1 on current road trip.... Seattle has lost 5 of last 6 and scored 10 runs in 5 loses.

KC starter Davis is no Cliff Lee, but he likes pitching against Mariners (who doesn't!).  From The Preview:

"Though Davies has not won since May 28, he is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in five starts against Seattle. He allowed one hit in six scoreless innings of a 3-1 home win over the Mariners on April 26. Davies gave up two runs in six innings of his only start at Safeco Field, an 8-4 win Aug. 27."

And Seattle's hurler, Fister, is currently on Covers' Slumping List.

Posted Wednesday, July 07, 2010 07:12 PM

Cards 1 and 9 Last 10 Versus Rockies But

Are still favored (ever so slightly) even though they helped Colorado set an unbelievable record last night.  Cardinals leading 9 to 3 going
into bottom of 9th and Rockies become first team in modern baseball history to score 9 in last of 9th. (I know loss was particularly painful to some of you.)

And after that brutal loss, Rocks going against Aaron Cook, who is 3 and 0 with a 2.64 ERA in 7 home starts this season.  Personally, I wouldn't take snake-bitten Cardinals till they show they're over the trauma. 

Posted Saturday, July 03, 2010 06:01 PM

Maholm Owns the Phillies!

Hey, Y'all,  Not trying to talk anyone out of taking Phillies visiting Pirates, but Maholm owns the Phils.  Consider this excerpt from The Preview:

"Manuel's club, however, hasn't had much success against Maholm (5-6, 3.98 ERA), who is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA in six starts against the Phillies, including 1-0 with a 0.78 ERA in the last three.
After back-to-back losses, Maholm gave up one run in a season-high eight innings of a 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs on Monday. He had lasted just one inning against Texas on June 23 after giving up seven runs."
And Phils are hurtin' physically, which is probably why they've lost 3 in a row and 5 of 7.  And Vegas makes Phils a very slight fave (-114). My advice is to take the team from Pennsylvania!

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