Lewstar2000's Blog

Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 06:30 AM

Help Understanding Match Handicaps, Kind Punter

Hey, I'm a Southern Californian (don't hold that agin me!) who does my fair share of wagering.  And I'm as conversant as most on the types of bets.  I know and love the runline and puckline--as well as playing the ponies.  In fact, I hope to take down today some of the estimated $400,000 carryover Pick 6 just south of me at Del Mar.

But one bet escapes me.  An example would help.  A couple of online contests are offering this wager:  Bayern Munich beats Sao Paulo by 3 goals or more.   I go to a most-respected online service, William Hill, and I think I'm reading the odds right--but not sure.  For one thing, William does not deal in halfs in this bet, and I zoom in on the following:
    Bayern Munich -2 goals   -105
    Sao Paulo +4 goals   -400

To me, I'm looking at the right odds because BM could win, say, 4 to 1, which would mean they could take away 2 goals and the bettor would win; while Sao Paulo could lose, say, 5 to 2, and bettors taking +4 goals would still win.

If this logic is not illogical, then taking Sao Paulo would seem to be a most prudent course of action even though BM is a rock-solid team.  Am I reading the odds correctly, or do I need a check up from the neck up?  Many thanks to the few of you who answer this question seriously rather than getting your jollies off flaming me....