Brady's Lowest Completion % is Versus, Guess Who!

Brady has a pedestrian 81.5 passer rating in three games against the Ravens, throwing for 687 yards and three TDs with one interception, and his 54.0 completion percentage against them is his lowest versus any opponent.... Guess the Pats will have to rely on running game, handing off to Dillon a lot.  Oh, that's right; Dillon doesn't play for them anymore.  Well, then hand-offs to whoever their running backs are.

Last Week, One Team Rested, the Other Played

Let's hope for the integrity of pro football, and us punters, that Green Bay win--as they played their regulars the great majority of the game while the Arizona Sissies went with their scrubs.

Never mind the fact that Green Bay is hotter than a fox in a forest fire.  And last week's game didn't cause them to lose any of their mojo--unlike the Sissies.

Big Enough Trend to Back Bengals?

Cincinnati has beaten SU the last 9 visiting underdogs.

Huge Trends in Kings/Wings

I know Kings are hot, but Wings have beaten Kings 21 of last 23 times, and 10 out of last 11 in Staples.  Probably why Detroit is now slight faves even though Kings would seem to be the play. I'm just sayin....

Charlotte/Knicks Total

Both teams have averaged 108 points in last 4, and 3 of 4 have been as visitors in both cases.  So I have to go against trends and fact that both Covers #1 Team Experts pick Unders--and go Overs.  Yeah, I realize public has raised Total by 2, but that's my play, and I'm sticking to it!

NO/OKC Law of Averages Play?

Hornets have beaten Thunder last 10 times they've played.  (In fact, Durant has never beat NO.)  And Hornets on a 3-game win streak, so Vegas makes OKC 4.5 faves.  Go figure.

Utah State/Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech 6 and 0 at home; Utah State 2 and 4 as visitors.  And Louisiana Tech's RPI is 83 versus Utah State's 131.  Seems like a Lou Tech victory, but why are they favored at home by only 2?

I smell a trap-ola.  I wouldn't touch this game with the proverbial 10-foot pole--at least the spread.  I do like the Overs a tad, though, given Utah State has averaged 77 in last 4 and Lou Tech, 82.

Rose Bowl Total a Gift

Hey, Oregon could hit 50 by itself.  In last 6 games, Ducks have averaged 43 (against likes of Stanford, USC, and Arizona) and total has averaged 74 in these games.

I'm sure Ohio State has a solid defense, but Ducks scored 38 against
Purdue and 47 against USC--the two teams that beat Buckeyes.

Nothing in life or sports guaranteed, But I'm confident Oregon will
salvage some of cred Pac-10 has lost lately.

Over a Gift in Rose Bowl

Hey, Oregon could hit 50 by itself.  In last 6 games, Ducks have averaged 43 (against likes of Stanford, USC, and Arizona) and total has averaged 74 in these games.

I'm sure Ohio State has a solid defense, but Ducks scored 38 against
Purdue and 47 against USC--the two teams that beat Buckeyes.

Nothing in life or sports guaranteed, But I'm confident Oregon will
salvage some of cred Pac-10 has lost lately.

Insight on Insight Bowl

I have no insight on Insight Bowl.  Tough to handicap for contest players, never mind those risking their hard-earned cash.

Did a lot of research and discovered the following:

--Iowa State BEAT Nebraska, 9 to 7 AT Lincoln.  Cyclones didn't even have first-string QB for game.

--Only common opponent is Iowa.  Iowa State lost at home to Hawkeyes, 35 to 3.  Minnesota lost its last game of regular season, at Iowa, 12-0.

--Minnesota making 3rd appearance in Insight Bowl in last 4 years.  (They obviously know the lay--and lays--of the land.  The totals in 2 previous were 63 and 85.)

--Minnesota last in Big 10 in Scoring and Total Offense.  Cyclones were 11th of 12 in Big 12 in Scoring; 8th in Total Offense.

Wouldn't put any Franklins on this one, but would like to stay competitive in contests, but still waiting for an inspiration!

Any insight much appreciated!

Thread Experts All Over the A&M/GA Overs

Want a laugh?   Read all the "experts'" posts pimping a sure Over on Thread for Texas A&M/Georgia game.

Dogs Now 5-1 Straight up in Bowls--Mustangs Next

Let's see, Dogs have not only covered but won 5 of 6 bowl games so far.  And June Jones, long-time Hawaii coach, is back in town. 

And in my College Bowl Confidence pools (where I've lost 5 of 6), I put Nevada 34th (most confident), and given what's already happened, I wouldn't dare bet till the tide turns.  And it may not, until the favored Crimson Tide wins.

The way things are going, I wouldn't at all be surprised if tsunami hits offshore of Hawaii just before game, and final is about 7 to 3.

Bowl Dogs Continue to Perform

What jumps out at me is that all four Dogs have won the first four Bowl games.  I remember reading an analysis in The Gold Sheet some time ago that said bowl underdogs are, statistically, very good bets--the more the spread, the better the chances of collecting.

NFL Winners Cover 72% of Time

I'm sure most of you know that the winning team in an NFL game covers 72% of time.  This week is a prime example, where 13 of 15 winners covered the spread--with only New England and Atlanta failing to do so.

Of course, the hard part is picking the winner of many NFL games.  Tonight's game is a good example.  Still, I like the Cardinals.

And, obviously, this trend doesn't always work, or Vegas would go broke even faster than it already is.   Pray for the new casino if you like to Visit Vegas!

Thanks, Godsplay, for the SJS Clincher

Sometimes, it does help to read the Threads for a particular game.  For example, I was all set to take St. Mary's, but I read the Threads, most of which were useless and definitely not mind-changing, but I
came to a post at the end, by Godsplay, which simply said, "San Jose lost to #10 Washington by only 10 at Washington."

That was enough to change my mind.  Maybe this fact didn't change any others' minds, but it rang a bell for me!  Of course, the Spartans haven't covered yet, and I may be jinxing them, but they look as solid as Drew Brees at the moment.

Vermont Based on "Theory of Relativity"

Saw John Wooden on ESPN last night.  He's 99 and still sharp.  Just hope he doesn't watch his Bruins this season; I want him to reach 100!

I've posted two comparative (relative) winners here.  A third could well be Vermont + 5.5 vs. Drexel.  The second-to-last game for both was at Rutgers.  Vermont won by 6, Drexel lost by 2.  Only negative is that game is being played at Drexel.

Yes, I pimped Long Beach State plus points vs. West Virginia.  I'm a SoCal guy who reads a lot about local teams.  I thought LBS had game; I still think they do.  I just didn't realize what a monster WVU is.  I'm sticking with LBS +12.5 today.  And stay safe today; don't get with 5 miles of a Toys R Us!

Baylor's Tweety Back; Make a Difference?

Baylor Senior point guard Tweety Carter received a four-game suspension to begin to 2009-2010 season, according to head coach Scott Drew.

Carter is expected to return for Baylor's biggest test to start the season, a Thankgiving Day game against Alabama in the first round of the Old Spice Classic in Florida.

Carter, the only McDonald's American in school history, averaged a career high 10.6 points and 3.2 assists as a junior for the Bears. He is expected to take over for the departed Curtis Jerrells at the starting point guard position.

I'm just saying, might make a difference when spread is tighter than Miley Cyrus.

Don't Underestimate Long Beach State

This is supposed to be LBS's year.  They are preseason faves in Big West--the conference of crazy-maker Cal-State Fullerton.  Their coach is Don Monson, who rocketed Gonzaga to fame in 1999.  He was hired to make LBS a Gonzaga South several years ago.

He has several LA-area top guns, plus the soon-to-be-fabled Larry Robinson.  And Monson has scheduled Duke, Texas and Kentucky.
Yes, they lost in South Bend to Notre Dame by 20, but Harangody is flat-out nasty.

Sure, West Virginia is #8, but the game is about 5 minutes from Disneyland.  the LBS players have been to The Magic Kingdom a zillion times; Disneyland must seem like Mecca to WV players.
This game is definitely not a walkover in my opinion.

Bewary (wary) of Pac-10 in MSG

Cal was supposed to be the class of the Pac-10 and they got hammered twice at MSG.  I'm a SoCal guy who would love to
take someone, anyone from Pac-10, but I'll Pasadena on Party U.
versus Mike K.

Sam Houston in Cancun

Posted yesterday that Sacto State was my play because it beat Oregon State in Oregon and was being given 18 points playing at Idaho a couple of nights later.  Early in season seems like "parallel" scores are a decent gauge.

For the same reason, I like Sam Houston over Rider.  Sam lost to Kentucky by 10 at Kentucky--Rider lost by 29 at Kentucky in same week.  I figure SHS should be more than 2-point faves.

Anyone Else Like Sacto State?

Sacramento State is plus 18 at Idaho tonight.  They were about the same at Oregon State a couple of nights ago, and they won 65-63. 

Are Vandals that much better than Beavers.  Which reminds me,
Sarah Palin was a Vandal.

Yet Another Reason Why Handicapping is Hell

Let's see, Yale loses  to second-tier teams Hofstra and Sacred Heart by 6 and 5, and Colgate loses to #12 Connecticut by 14.  You would think Colgate could stay with the Brainiacs.  At least I did.  Memo to self: Buy any toothpaste but Colgate from now on.

Colorado St. vs Oregon--Is the Spread Right

Already been said perhaps; too busy watching high-scoring Packers-Cowboys tilt to read all the posts, but has anyone posted that CSU and Oregon are not only both 2 and 0, but they switched opponents.

Oregon beat Winston-Salem and UC Davis by 51 and 31, and the Rams beat each by 18 and 17.  Factor in the notion that all games were played in Oregon's infamous Pit, and the oddsmakers have the Ducks currently as 16.5 faves about two hours before tipoff.

Seems to me like Oregon should be at least 20-point favorites based on all aspects.  Agree or disagree?

Overs Big Winner Yesterday

I'm relatively new to handicapping, but I really enjoy Covers.   In my only post yesterday, I announced that I was a lucky 9 and 1 going into Friday's games, and hoped to get a slice of Cover's weekly NCAAB contest.

Well, I went 28 and 8 yesterday (picking no O/U because I wasn't near computer when they finally appeared) and dropped from 5th place to 34th.  Yikes!  I did some research and discovered that the Big Winner yesterday in the contest (Big Bopper) took a clear lead by betting Overs on 90% of games.(He took no Unders.)  He ended up winning 26 of 37 Overs.

Is this a common practice: to bet Overs early on in the season?  In any case, I know I have to play some O/U if I want to place in any contests, because hitting 78% sides is apparently not enough!

Look forward to reading more of your wise and witty posts!

Coach K -31?

Hey, I'm 9 and 1 so far in Covers contest, but it's 91% luck--at least.  I don't know how one can hit more than 50% this early in college hoops.  And I'm sure my record will fall like a submarine with screen doors as soon as I stop flipping a coin and start "analyzing" games.

Duke at home vs. NC-Greensboro is an interesting game.  Duke is -31.  Seems like a doable margin for the Dukies, given the fact they've beaten Greensboro by an average of 38 points in prior 7 meetings.

Also, Coach K. won by 31 or more points 4 times last season, all at Durham, and all before Xmas, including first two tilts.

Then, again, it's Friday, the 13th.  Plus, Coach K. seemed so sweet on Oprah even my wife who never heard of him called him a gentle humanitarian.

I guess I'll lay the points and hope Greensboro doesn't have a 2nd-string Tampa Bay QB-type player lurking on the bench.