Johan Awful Away from NY; Johnson Lights Out at Home

Santana has been awful away from home: he's 0-1 (in two starts) with a bloated 8.43 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.
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Meantime, at home, Josh Johnson has been overpowering: 2.42 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. No wonder he's undefeated at home (3-0) in 4 starts, and Marlins won his one no-decision game.

Most Interesting and Savvy Comment on Cavs by Logans' Oddsmaker

Quoting Blake Edwards, Logans' oddsmaker:

" I've been watching sports for more than 30 years, been betting sports for 20 years and have been booking games for almost 15 years. In all my years, I've never seen a game or a performance like what I saw in Game 5 on Tuesday night. 

With so much on the line, one of the game's greatest players, LeBron James, didn't bother to show up.  I can't for the life of me remember a game that was completely inexplicable to me. Blow outs happen all the time, it goes without saying. 

Game 5 wasn't that big of an upset with the Cavs only 7.5-point favorites. What was inexplicable and something I've never seen before was a superstar of James' stature not showing up on such a big stage.  With that said, I fully expect a huge effort tonight from the Cavs and especially LeBron."

Only One Way to Go in Padres-Giants Game

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Wouldn't touch a side in this game.  Padres swept Giants at San Diego, and won first game of current series--and so going for fifth in a row.  Plus, they've given Giants 6 runs in the 4 games played. 

Cain pitching very well, but he's 4-6 with a 2.91 ERA against the Padres.  And impotent Giants will be hard-pressed to score 3 runs tonight, I fear. 

Don't think they could make the Under low enough, though, in this game. Consider:

?  Under is 8-0 in SF last 8 vs. National League West.

?  Under is 10-1 in SF last 11 home games.

?  Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.

?  Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

?  Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

?  Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 on grass.

?  Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

?  Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

... [More]

Reasons Why Angels Might Be a Live Dog Vs. Rays

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Before Dallas Braden threw a perfect game against Tampa Bay, the Rays came into the contest hitting .207 in their previous eight outings and posting two runs or fewer in five of those.

 

Going into Monday, Tampa was 1-13 in Southern California since 2006 and 6-34 in the last 40 games at Angel Stadium. 

 

... [More]

Hawks 8 and 0 Last 8 as Road Dogs, Plus

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--Blackhawks 8 and 0 last 8 as dogs

--Blackhawks rebounded with a win after all 3 of its playoff losses and has won 4 of its 5 postseason games away from the United Center.

--Blackhawks 5 and 1 last 6 in Vancouver

--Over 7-1 last 8 in Vancouver

--Over 10-1-1 last 12 when Vancouver favored

... [More]

You'd Think Jazz "Fans" Would Know Better

Fisher hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 28.6 seconds left on Saturday, giving the Lakers the lead for good, 109-108. He had been booed all night, as he has been in Utah since asking the Jazz to release him from his contract so he could move his family closer to a city where his 1-year-old daughter could get specialized treatment for a cancerous tumor in her eye.

He ended up signing as a free agent with the Lakers, which some Jazz fans won't seem to forgive. The relentless boos and chants of "Fisher Sucks!" are not sitting well with Fisher's teammates on the Lakers.

"That's just bad people, doing stuff like that," Bryant said. "Not about that. You don't boo about that."

--STILL, Lakers have swept only 1 playoff series in last 6 seasons--Denver, 2008.  That's just not their "style."  They could cover, but if form holds true, they won't win.

Pens/Habs In a Classic Zig-Zag Series?

Wow, Habs gettin' no respect (Pens, -176) even though this has all the makings of the occasional zig-zag series: Teams alternate wins.

Hard for me to go over (last 4 have gone under), even though Law of Averages gonna kick in sooner or later--right?

All Is Not Well in Hawks' Camp

If the Hawks were as good at scoring points as they are at pointing fingers they might not find themselves in the 3-0 series hole to the Magic. The Hawks have been outscored by an average of 29 points per game in the series and Saturday's 105-75 loss was the low point
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Coach Mike Woodson called his team's effort "nonexistent", guard Joe Johnson teed off on booing fans and center Al Horford said "when things don't go our way everybody just kind of seems to crawl into their own little hole." It all adds up to a big hole for the Hawks, and they don't seem ready, willing or able to climb out of it.

Add that to Magic 27 wins out of last 30 and 12-1 ATS last 13, and doesn't appear oddsmakers can give Hawks enough points.

Bruins/Flyers' Nugget

Home ice has been kind to the Bruins, who have won seven straight heading into tonight's Game 5 against the Flyers. The Bruins won the first two games against the visiting Flyers, swept their three first-round games against Sabres in Boston and haven't lost at home since April 1. The Flyers, on the other hand, have been woeful on the road late in the season, going 4-12 in their last 16 away from home.

An Oddsmakers' Take on Both NBA Games

In case you missed it in Covers, Blake Edwards, oddsmaker for Logans, is very opionated on both games tonight.  Some excerpts:

"We opened the Magic at -5.5 and looking back we definitely opened this line short. We immediately started taking action on the road favorite. With action pouring in on the Magic, we went to 6 and we're now dealing 6.5 on them. It's the most lopsided game we've seen so far in the playoffs. Almost 95 percent of the total action is on the Magic and I could see us closing this game Magic -7.

The Hawks have lost all three games in this series by an average of 29 points, with the closest game being a 14-point loss in Game 2. If the Hawks were to finally win a game and push this series back to Orlando, I would expect them to fully lie down and I would not expect a competitive Game 5.
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Lakers/Jazz

As for the total, we opened at 206 and have seen mostly over money. With over 80 percent of the action on the over, we've gone to 207.

Another area where we've seen a lot of action on is the Lakers moneyline. Our bettors are mostly passing on taking the points and are pounding the Lakers on the moneyline at +120.

Unlike the Hawks, I believe the Jazz will come to play tonight. This is a very proud team, driven by a great coach in Jerry Sloan. They know their season is all but done, but they don't want to see the Lakers celebrate on th... [More]

Interesting Tidbits About Suns/Spurs

--Despite trailing 3-0 in this playoff series, the early money quickly came in on San Antonio when an opening line was posted Saturday morning.

--Oddsmakers initially made the Spurs a 2.5-point home favorite and bettors quickly pushed the line up to -3.5 (now -4). The early money also came in on the over as the opening total went from 206.5 up to 207.

--San Antonio’s defense has done a decent job against the Suns for most of the first 36 minutes of each game.  However, the Spurs have fallen asleep in the money quarter in all three of the games so far. Phoenix has scored 39, 32 and 26 points in the fourth quarters of this series. That’s a total of 97 points scored on San Antonio’s defense when the game is on the line. 

--Numbers like that were never allowed by the defensive-minded Spurs teams of old.

--Only a week ago were the Spurs being hailed as perhaps the best No. 7 seed in NBA history after impressively dumping Dallas in six games. Now they are looking like, well, like just about every other seventh seed in NBA history.

Personally, I would make game pick 'em.  And that's being kind to Spurs.

Whiz123 Has Made a Pick for 21 in a Row and $25,000

in Covers' Streak Survivor--and it's Cleveland -1.  His 20th in a row was Orlando -9. 

If he gets this one, and hits 25 in a row, he earns--and I mean earns--$100,000.

Utah Cover/Under Trends

--Lakers 1 and 11ATS  last 12 following an ATS win.

--Jazz 8-1-1ATS  last 10 playoff games as a .5 to 4.5 fave.

--Home team 19-9-1 ATS last 29

--Under last 4 in Utah.

--Under 7 and 2 last 9.

One Stat That Will Inspire Wings' Backers

Detroit has won both games and outscored the opposition 13-2 when facing elimination in the 2010 playoffs, while the Red Wings are 3-6 in all other games.  The Wings' may be the year's best backs-to-the-wall team.

6_Pack of Reasons to Take Habs (and Unders)

-- Pens have lost 3 of 5 home playoff games.

--Halak has blocked 94 of last 98 shots on goal, including final
  32 in Game 4.

--Crosby taken only 8 shots in 4 games.

--Pens outscored 6 to 5 after winning first game of series by
  3 goals.

--I need Habs to move up from 4th spot in Overall Beer for a Year
  Leaderboard! (No one in front of me has Habs.  By the way,      Beer for a year equates to $1,000, acc. to Covers.  Say what!

--While Overs have flat-out dominated rest of playoff series, the under has cashed in the last three games in the series and five of the past seven games between Pittsburgh and Montreal overall.

Very Scary Magic Stats

Taken from CBS Sports Preview of Today's Game:

Orlando has gone more than a month since its last defeat, a 112-100 setback at San Antonio on April 2. The Magic has won 12 straight since then, the last six of those in the playoffs. Going back even further, they are on a 26-of-29 roll, clearly a team peaking at just the right time of year.

Even more troubling for the Hawks, Orlando hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly FOUR months. Atlanta absolutely must win the next two games on its home court to have any chance of pulling off an epic turnaround.

Stats That Favor Chicago and Over

Overs best bet here.  In each of Canucks and Chicago's last 5 games (3 against each other), total has gone 6 or over.

Also, Blackhawks are 7 and 1 last 8 road games.

Stats That Won't Make You Double-up On Bruins

--Bruins are 5-0 last 5 vs. Philadelphia  and 7-1 in their last eight overall.

--Bruins 6-1 last 7 in Philadelphia

Most Compelling Reason to Take Magic--Or Not to Take Magic?

Whiz123, highest achiever in some time on Covers' Streak Survivor, just pocketed $1,000 for picking 17 in a row.  He's now at 19--only two shy of 21 and $25,000.  Tonight he's going with Orlando -9.

Does Law of Averages kick in or will Whiz stay in zone?

One thing for sure: If he'd parlayed his 19 in a row, he wouldn't need the $25,000--if such a thing is possible.

Sharks/Wings' Total in 9 of last 10 Has Been 7

Nine of last 10 games played by two teams (5 by Sharks; 5 by Wings) has totalled 7 goals (including 4 to 3 wins by Sharks in first three of this series).  Only "non-7-total" was San Jose's 5-0 win over Avs.  Seems, therefore, like over 5.5 is a distinct possibility.

Cook Feasts on Padres

Cook is 13-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 21 starts against Padres. He's 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last five at Petco Park. Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

However, Pads are 10 and 2 last 12 home games, and 8 and 1 in Richard's last 9 starts.

Under may be only way to go in this puzzler.

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Duncan Predicts a W in Game 2

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Tim Duncan said after the Spurs practiced on Tuesday, "We still have an opportunity to steal home court here tomorrow, and we're going to do just that. We've got a lot of things to clean up. We feel if we do just that, we give ourselves a real good chance."

 

Hey, I’m not gonna call out “El Viejo.”  Gotta remember in the first round, the Spurs lost Game 1 in Dallas, then won Game 2 and eliminated the Mavericks in six.  And this game

feels to me like Game 2 of Boston at the Cavs.

Plus, the Spurs have won four straight playoff series against the Suns—and 4 world championships the past 10 years.  Just can’t see them putting themselves in a huge 0-2 hole in “Shut up and show me your papers!” Arizona.

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Reasons Why Phillies Are a Live Dog vs. Cards

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For starters, the Cardinals should be much higher than -118, given the fact that Penny is pitching like Cy Young, and Kyle Kendrick is pitching like Eric Young.  In fact, KK has imploded 4 of his 5 trips to the bump; in those starts, he has an 11.49 ERA, giving up six homers in 15 2/3 innings.

But KK does love to pitch against Cards.  Consider

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Kendrick is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts versus St. Louis -- none since June 2008 -- and he's 9-2 lifetime against the NL Central leaders. Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick and Albert Pujols are a combined 3 for 22 against Kendrick, though Holliday and Ludwick have taken him deep.

 

Plus:

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 --Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

--Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a ri... [More]

Hotlanta Trends That Might Help You

Personally, I'm an under-taker with a lean toward an Atlanta cover based on the following:

--Atlanta has played to the under in three straight and the last five meetings between these two went under by an average of 17.2 points per game.

--The Hawks are 1 and 10 in 11 road playoff games over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta has been defeated by an average margin of 19.8 ppg in those games.

Talk About Home-Rink Advantage!

Never mind the fact that Wings know they have to win or they're done. The Sharks are awful in Detroit.  They've won only 5 of 35 regular season, and are 6-20-1 last 27, including playoff games.