Lippsman's Blog

Posted Wednesday, December 24, 2014 09:07 AM

Happy Holidays to all

Merry Christmas
Happy Hanakkuh
Mele Kalikimaka ame Hauoli Makahiki Hou!

Whatever you celebrate, here is to a great year and many more to come here. 

I Appreciate everyone here, more than you can ever know. 

Take care everyone. 

Posted Tuesday, July 01, 2014 02:36 PM

Isles get Chad Johnson from the B's (WTF)

Really surprised at this one.  He's going to be a backup on the Isles instead of a backup for the B's.   Also surprised that the B's let him go.  Guess they didn't want to pay him.  He made 600K last year and the Isles signed him for 1.3.  

So now they have 3 backup goaltenders with 1 game of NHL experience between them.  Yes you read that correctly, 1 game between all of them !! 

Guessing that Niklas with be the backup. 

Come the hell on B's, it's worth an extra 600K to of kept Johnson

Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 04:52 PM

Tech catches up to everything....Even the Zamboni

It's been an icon with the driver being popular with everyone.  But it's time will probably be numbered now because of better and faster tech.


Posted Thursday, October 03, 2013 03:02 PM

Guide to 2013-14 NHL realignment

From what I have seen here and other websites, it looks like a good deal of people are not aware of the exact realignment and how the teams are seeded for the playoffs this year.  Here is a break down of all the info. 

Posted Sunday, March 31, 2013 09:48 AM

Things are changing, or I should say things are back to normal.....Take note

Things have been way skewed with favs hitting at a huge rate this year.  This past week a shift to the normal is starting to occur.  So far this year dogs have only hit at a 39.6% clip, which is up from 36.28% from 60 days ago. 

This past week the dogs have hit a 46.15% rate. 

For the new bettors and casual bettors in the forum this year, this it what the NHL always is. A couple of dogs hitting almost every night.  Usually the biggest dog is a great play blind every night.  

This is why you saw me play my usual take anything above +130 strategy at the start of the year.  This year it got just crushed like it never has before.    Maybe it's the short season, the lack of a decent training camp made the lesser teams at more of a disadvantage ??  Not completely sure, but I am sure of parity like we usually have for the rest of this year.

Now with that said, we are coming up on teams that are just flat out of it and are just going through the motions.  So pay close attention to that. 

The Avs and Calgary are hitting that spot. Florida is in that boat also, even though they took out the Devils last night, plus the Avs won.  But too little too late. 

Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 12:45 PM

Free money with the Wings tonight you say.....Think again.

It's much more than the B2B angle, in fact that is the least thing I am looking at.  The Wings are coming off two huge wins at ANA the past two nights. The lowly Yotes will be very tough to get up for.  The Yotes are on a 5 game losing streak but look at who they have played.  LA twice, the Nucks, the Blues and a very hot Jackets team. 

Also the Wings will play a road against the Sharks in a few days, so this is the prefect look ahead game for them. 

Paper says the Wings should win by a couple of goals.  But you gotta look deeper than that at times.

Or I am off my rocker and you will all hit this game hard and it will spit out money like an ATM.

Posted Friday, March 22, 2013 10:20 PM

Power play chances dropping like a rock this year.

Teams are converting their power-play opportunities better than they have in any season since 2008-09. They're just not getting many chances to do it. Power plays per game dropped to a 34-year low of 6.61 per game last season, and that total will end up even lower in 2012-13 if current trends continue.

Whether it's officials allowing more things to go uncalled or players adapting to the way games are called, power plays are plummeting as the season goes on. The first quarter of the season saw an average of 8.28 power plays per game. By the end of February, that number was down to 7.67 -- and through Thursday's games, the average had dropped to 7.10 per game.

More telling is the fact that power plays this month continue to drop. The 153 games played so far this month have seen an average of just 5.99 power plays -- matching the average of the last three-plus months of 2011-12. If the March average were to continue through the remainder of 2012-13, the full-season average would drop to 6.55; the last time there were fewer power plays per game was 1977-78 (6.38).

Philadelphia and San Jose are the only teams averaging more than four power plays per game; Anaheim, Boston, Winnipeg and Colorado are averaging fewer than three. Philadelphia and Dallas are the only teams allowing opponents more than four advantages per game.

Though they're not getting as much practice, teams are connecting on the power play at the best rate since '08-09. Through 450... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 31, 2013 08:51 PM

Your book doesn't have a -1 line....Never fear, Lippsman is here

Not a problem at all, I can give you a formula to make your own -1 line. 

100x/(x+1)     where x = ml
if you plan on betting $100 on a game with -1.30 ml and +1.60 pl
 100(1.30)/(1.3 + 1)
=$56 on the ml........therefore $44 on pl
works out to approx. +1.15 for the -1 spread

Or you can PM me your e-mail address and I will send you an excel spreadsheet that will calculate it for you.

Posted Tuesday, November 20, 2012 12:35 PM

Senate bill rewrite lets feds read your e-mail without warrants

Take note of this, take a very close note. 

Posted Tuesday, May 22, 2012 11:50 AM

5-22-12 puck pick (With a history lesson)

How will the Kings handle that confidence being broken ?? I don't think very well.  And speaking from a historical perspective, the home team being a dog here is just too good to resist.

Ignoring win order; considering site order, the team leading 3-1 and going on the road for game 5 has a record of 40-51 (.440) overall and for the Semifinals round: 11-9 (.550)

Add to that the Kings finally losing and Smith going out of his mind, getting back major confidence I see the Yotes as a play tonight.

Yotes +113

Posted Sunday, April 08, 2012 08:06 AM

It's that time again......The Lippsman split

Tried and true and very much copied on the net too.

Betcha' you didn't know I was a poet ?

I started this back in the days of Q-Link, before it was called AOL. Posted it back in 1986 when you accessed online with a dial up modem.

The whole goal is to win the first dog play in series. But if you don't get that first game then you play for the split on the 2nd one. I look for at least a +120 payback. There can be no injuries to any of your 1st liners. You win the first one you walk away. You lose the first then play the dog in the 2nd one. Don't chase....don't chase....don't chase.

This is for the first two games in the series only.

This reason it works well most seasons if that in the NHL as most playoffs, the teams play a much better D than usual. So a lower scoring game gives a boost to the dog. Also being just the first two games the teams don't usually take any chances and err on the side of caution.

Now there are variations that I do not reccomend but they are out there and well.....they have been know to turn a profit.

1. Chasing the first game on a loss.......I hate chasing and it's too much of a risk.

2. If the dog wins the first game you take the fave in the 2nd one. I willl play this sometimes. But it's juiced more than -140. Which it usually is, then of couse I play the -1 line. You notice I didn't mention the regulation line. That's because there is just too much of a chance of OT in the playof... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 08, 2012 11:26 AM

Lets take a look at scoring or lack of such. Clutching again you say

Remember the year after the lockout ?  Oh so long ago.  The 2005-06 season was crackdown for sure and that red line disappeared. More wide open hockey, more penalties called.  An offensive fans utopia. 

Well what has happened since.  More wid play, sans red line has  has caused more injuries.  Higher speed inpacts.  But as with all crackdowns in the NHL us long time fans and followers know that things slowly goes back to the norm and this is no different.

Remember those obstruction calls ?  Those tons of PP's we had in every game ?  My many rants about I don't want to watch a game that is a constant PP ?

Things have went back to norm for sure. 

Take a look at this chart.  Our high of 6.17 goals and 5.8 PP's per team per game.  Yes that's per team per game so you can multiply that 5.8 times 2.  Is now down to 5.48 goals a game and 3.4 PP's per team per game.  Times two of course.

Look at the regression here

Posted Saturday, January 14, 2012 11:11 AM

Divisional Playoffs teaser time (Post yours)

Well last week tanked, although it you are going to lose a teaser losing both sides is the way to do it.

2 team 7pt -120

SF +10.5
Pats -6.5

2 team 6.5pt -110

Ravens -2.5
Pack -1.5


Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 08:08 AM

2011 teasers Week 1

On another year of winning teasers here.  Of couse last year was another good year just like every year I post them here.

Rookies save your teasers are for suckers post. I stake my rep saying I make money on them and I will show you how.  It's not what you tease, it's how you tease.

This year I'm using 5Dimes again, but remember they like to play with the lines also I am using Pinny again.  Where most of you won't/ don't know to play Pinny I will also post BetAnySports odds.  They have the best teaser odds behind 5Dimes.

What I play

2 team 6pt Ev
2 team 6.5pt -110
2 team 7pt -120
3 team 6pt +180
3 team 6.5pt +165
3 team 7pt +150
3 team 10pt -115

Starting out tonight with a 2 team 6pt teaser

Holy shit, Dimes actually isn't playing with the lines this week.  Just give them a few weeks.


Saints +10.5
Cards -2


Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 10:25 PM

Belfour, Gilmour, two others elected to Hockey Hall of Fame

Eddie the Eagle is a Hall of Famer.

Former All-Star goalie Ed Belfour was elected Tuesday to the Hockey Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, joining Doug Gilmour, Mark Howe and Joe Nieuwendyk as the newest class of inductees.

The four former NHL stars were chosen by the hall's 18-member selection committee. The induction ceremony will be held on Nov. 14.

Belfour, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner as the league's top goalie, posted 484 wins -- third on the NHL career list -- and 76 shutouts during a 17-year career during which he played for Chicago, San Jose, Dallas, Toronto and Florida.

"It is hard to put into words what this means to me," Belfour said in a statement issued by the Stars. "I would like to thank all of my teammates and people along the way who helped me achieve my hockey dreams."

Belfour, whose distinctively decorated facemask earned him the nickname "Eddie the Eagle," won a Stanley Cup with the Stars in 1999. He also was the Calder Memorial Trophy winner in 1991 as the NHL's top rookie.

Gilmour played 20 years in the NHL and won the Stanley Cup in 1989. He finished with more than 1,400 career points.

Howe, the son of Hall of Famer Gordie Howe, retired in 1995. He switched from forward to defense early in his career and was a runner up for the Norris Trophy three times. He also had three 20-goal seasons in the NHL.

"I was elated to have this dream come true," Howe said. "To actually hav... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 26, 2011 11:14 AM

What does history tell us about that magic game 7

Ahhhh.....what the sports world loves so 7's.  I imaging most think the home team wins most of them and is juiced for that fact....well let's see

Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 3-games-all with Games 1-2 at home, Games 3-4 on the road, Game 5 at home, and Game 6 on the road (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2011 NBA and NHL Quarterfinals rounds:

Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 80-53 (.602)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Semis round: 18-8 (.692)

So we are looking at a line of -145 for the game right now and you need a win % of 59.18 to break even for that lay.

So you are getting a very slight bonus by laying the -143 and a nice bounus if you go by the semis round record.

It's hard to go against a home team in game 7.  But considering there have been no OT games in the series, taking the regulation line of the B's +115 I think that is the way to go.


Posted Thursday, May 26, 2011 10:54 AM

Guy Boucher is a fool if he doesn't start Smith for game 7

Roloson has allowed 15 goals in his last 176 minutes played for a whopping 5.11 GAA, with a .843 SV% 

Now it makes great soundbytes when you say we are going with the guy that got us there.  A 41 year old goaltender that got you there in the regular season, but is breaking down in the post season.

Mike Smith on the other hand has allowed  2 goals in the series with Boston. 120 minutes over 3 games played for a very small GAA of 1.00 and an incredible .958 SV%

Doesn't take a huge thought process here.

Does Boucher want to be loyal or the best chance for TB to return to the Cup Finals.

Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 02:42 PM

So what does history tell us about tonights games

Vancouver 3-0 at Chicago.

Teams that won the first game at home and are up 3-0, have a winning % of 64% for game 4 and a series win % of 98.1. 

In the 2010-11 regular season, Vancouver finished 20 points ahead of Chicago. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 20 regular-season points, they have posted a 5-1 (.833) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents.

MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1126 is the 71st best-of-7 playoff series for Chicago, and the 29th for Vancouver. In best-of-7 playoff series, Chicago has a 32-38 series record, a 7-7 Prelim-round series record, and a 26-44 Game 1 record, while Vancouver has a 12-16 series record, an 8-6 Prelim-round record, and a 17-11 Game 1 record. Series 1126 is the fifth best-of-7 meeting between Chicago and Vancouver; Chicago won three of the previous four.

The 2011 NHL Chicago Blackhawks thus become the 288th MLB/NBA/NHL team to face a 3-games-nil deficit, and hope to become the fifth team to surmount that deficit (with the Philadelphia Flyers' having accomplished that feat as recently as Spring 2010). The 2011 Phoenix Coyotes are 289th in the same queue.

San Jose at LA. Series tied 1-1

The NHL San Jose Sharks find themselves tied 1-game-all after Games 1-2 of their 2011 NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 series. In best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round action from 1987 through 2010 inclusiv... [More]

Posted Sunday, April 17, 2011 01:26 PM

What usually happens in Game 3 with a 2-0 start

Sooooo....what historically has happened when a team has won both game at home and then hit the road for game 3 ?'s it's a slight advantage when they hit the visitors ice. For all series they have a .538 win % for game 3 and almost 90% chance of winning the series.  So as you see the line it's almost right on at pretty much a pickem.

But lets dig a bit deeper with the stats.  Here with the Caps and Rangers info.

In the 2010-11 regular season, Washington finished 14 points ahead of the New York Rangers. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 14 regular-season points, they have posted an 11-7 (.611) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents.

MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1122 is the 59th best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Rangers, and the 29th for Washington. In best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Rangers have a 24-34 series record, an 8-5 Prelim-round series record, and a 26-32 Game 1 record, while Washington has a 9-19 series record, a 6-11 Prelim-round record, and a 17-11 Game 1 record.

Series 1122 is the sixth best-of-7 meeting between the New York Rangers and Washington; Washington won three of the previous five best-of-7 series between the two.

How about the Nucks and Hawks.

Vancouver finished 20 points ahead of Chicago. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 24, 2010 02:43 PM

Week 12 teasers, Thanksgiving edition...14-9 +1.1 YTD (Post yours)

Another week of winning teasers.   Got one on Turkey day for ya.

A special 3 team 7pt teaser.  Going for the nice payout. +150.

Dallas +10.5
Jets -2
Ravens -2

If one of the first two lose I will put the Ravens in another 7pt teaser. Probably with Cleveland if they go down to -9.5 or the Bears if I can't get the line move.


Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 09:25 AM

Atlantic City casino revenue declines 11.3 percent in August

The casino industry's summer slump continued in August, with gaming revenue plunging by double digits amid the sluggish economy and even tougher competition from Pennsylvania.

Altogether, Atlantic City's 11 casino hotels took in $347.5 million from the slot machines and table games, an 11.3 percent decline from the $391.7 million in August 2009, the New Jersey Casino Control Commission reported Friday.

August's results reinforced just how challenging the summer season has been in the resort town. Gaming revenue tumbled 11.1 percent in June and fell 5 percent in July. Atlantic City's string of revenue declines has now stretched to 24 straight months, reflecting the weak economy and the growth of gambling in Pennsylvania.

Although Pennsylvania has been surging, the formerly recession-resistant gambling industry has suffered in other jurisdictions. Nevada, a month behind Atlantic City in reporting its casino revenue, was down nearly 5 percent in July. Slot revenue at Delaware's three racetrack casinos fell almost 5 percent in August, while slot winnings at the two Indian-owned casinos in Connecticut were up just 1.5 percent in July.

A lighter entertainment schedule in August was one factor contributing to Atlantic City's lower revenue, according to the Gaming Industry Observer newsletter. The newsletter said there were 50 entertainment events at the casinos this August compared to 57 during the same month last year.

On top of everything else, ... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 11, 2010 11:17 AM

Trump Marina casino in Atlantic City back on sale with help of commercial realty firm

They will be lucky to get $200 Million for that thing.  Been there a few's just too far away from the other casinos.

Posted Tuesday, June 08, 2010 11:14 PM

Two Atlantic City casinos fined for using decks with missing playing cards

Two casinos agreed to pay fines today after it was discovered they were not playing with a full deck.

The New Jersey Casino Control Commission slapped Bally's Atlantic City with an $18,000 fine and Showboat Casino Hotel had to pay a $10,000 penalty. Neither casino contested the fines.

In Bally's case, a missing 7 of diamonds during games of blackjack left the casino short of a 52-card deck for nearly eight hours on April 29, 2009. Bally's staff ignored a warning light on an automatic shuffling machine that indicated a card was missing, believing there was a full deck instead.

At Showboat, a 3 of hearts got stuck in a shuffling machine at a poker table for Texas Hold ‘Em, but the missing card went undetected for about four hours on Sept. 24, 2008.

Although both casinos were fined, the commission said neither knew that a card was missing and that both have since taken steps to prevent the problem from happening again.

Posted Thursday, February 18, 2010 03:32 PM

URL typos earn Google $497 million per year, study says

Google could be earning some $497 million a year from the registered owners of website addresses that mimic typographical errors in existing sites, according to a new study.

Harvard University researchers Tyler Moore and Benjamin Edelman estimate that Google could be making millions from the practice, known as “typosquatting,” because its network of display ads — from which it receives a cut of the profits — run on the typo’d sites.

If it’s a frequently misspelled site address — for example, instead of yours truly –the tactic could pay off handsomely.

Moore and Edelman used a list of common spelling mistakes to generate another list of possible typo domains for the 3,264 most popular “.com” websites, as determined by rankings.

With help from software, the researchers crawled 285,000 of some 900,000 “misspelled” sites to estimate what revenue the domains are generating.

Scale those results, and you’re looking at some serious coin:

Expanding to the top 100,000 sites, retaining the 0.7% estimated ratio of typosquatting site, we estimate that typo domains collectively receive at least 68.2 million daily visitors. If these typo domains were treated as a single website, that site would be ranked by Alexa as t... [More]

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