5-22-12 puck pick (With a history lesson)

How will the Kings handle that confidence being broken ?? I don't think very well.  And speaking from a historical perspective, the home team being a dog here is just too good to resist.

Ignoring win order; considering site order, the team leading 3-1 and going on the road for game 5 has a record of 40-51 (.440) overall and for the Semifinals round: 11-9 (.550)

Add to that the Kings finally losing and Smith going out of his mind, getting back major confidence I see the Yotes as a play tonight.

Yotes +113

It's that time again......The Lippsman split

Tried and true and very much copied on the net too.

Betcha' you didn't know I was a poet ?

I started this back in the days of Q-Link, before it was called AOL. Posted it back in 1986 when you accessed online with a dial up modem.

The whole goal is to win the first dog play in series. But if you don't get that first game then you play for the split on the 2nd one. I look for at least a +120 payback. There can be no injuries to any of your 1st liners. You win the first one you walk away. You lose the first then play the dog in the 2nd one. Don't chase....don't chase....don't chase.

This is for the first two games in the series only.

This reason it works well most seasons if that in the NHL as most playoffs, the teams play a much better D than usual. So a lower scoring game gives a boost to the dog. Also being just the first two games the teams don't usually take any chances and err on the side of caution.

Now there are variations that I do not reccomend but they are out there and well.....they have been know to turn a profit.

1. Chasing the first game on a loss.......I hate chasing and it's too much of a risk.

2. If the dog wins the first game you take the fave in the 2nd one. I willl play this sometimes. But it's juiced more than -140. Which it usually is, then of couse I play the -1 line. You notice I didn't mention the regulation line. That's because there is just too much of a chance of OT in the playof... [More]

Lets take a look at scoring or lack of such. Clutching again you say

Remember the year after the lockout ?  Oh so long ago.  The 2005-06 season was crackdown for sure and that red line disappeared. More wide open hockey, more penalties called.  An offensive fans utopia. 

Well what has happened since.  More wid play, sans red line has  has caused more injuries.  Higher speed inpacts.  But as with all crackdowns in the NHL us long time fans and followers know that things slowly goes back to the norm and this is no different.

Remember those obstruction calls ?  Those tons of PP's we had in every game ?  My many rants about I don't want to watch a game that is a constant PP ?

Things have went back to norm for sure. 

Take a look at this chart.  Our high of 6.17 goals and 5.8 PP's per team per game.  Yes that's per team per game so you can multiply that 5.8 times 2.  Is now down to 5.48 goals a game and 3.4 PP's per team per game.  Times two of course.

Look at the regression here

Belfour, Gilmour, two others elected to Hockey Hall of Fame

Eddie the Eagle is a Hall of Famer.

Former All-Star goalie Ed Belfour was elected Tuesday to the Hockey Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, joining Doug Gilmour, Mark Howe and Joe Nieuwendyk as the newest class of inductees.

The four former NHL stars were chosen by the hall's 18-member selection committee. The induction ceremony will be held on Nov. 14.

Belfour, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner as the league's top goalie, posted 484 wins -- third on the NHL career list -- and 76 shutouts during a 17-year career during which he played for Chicago, San Jose, Dallas, Toronto and Florida.

"It is hard to put into words what this means to me," Belfour said in a statement issued by the Stars. "I would like to thank all of my teammates and people along the way who helped me achieve my hockey dreams."

Belfour, whose distinctively decorated facemask earned him the nickname "Eddie the Eagle," won a Stanley Cup with the Stars in 1999. He also was the Calder Memorial Trophy winner in 1991 as the NHL's top rookie.

Gilmour played 20 years in the NHL and won the Stanley Cup in 1989. He finished with more than 1,400 career points.

Howe, the son of Hall of Famer Gordie Howe, retired in 1995. He switched from forward to defense early in his career and was a runner up for the Norris Trophy three times. He also had three 20-goal seasons in the NHL.

"I was elated to have this dream come true," Howe said. "To actually hav... [More]

What does history tell us about that magic game 7

Ahhhh.....what the sports world loves so much......game 7's.  I imaging most think the home team wins most of them and is juiced for that fact....well let's see

Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 3-games-all with Games 1-2 at home, Games 3-4 on the road, Game 5 at home, and Game 6 on the road (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2011 NBA and NHL Quarterfinals rounds:

Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 80-53 (.602)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Semis round: 18-8 (.692)

So we are looking at a line of -145 for the game right now and you need a win % of 59.18 to break even for that lay.

So you are getting a very slight bonus by laying the -143 and a nice bounus if you go by the semis round record.

It's hard to go against a home team in game 7.  But considering there have been no OT games in the series, taking the regulation line of the B's +115 I think that is the way to go.

GL

Guy Boucher is a fool if he doesn't start Smith for game 7

Roloson has allowed 15 goals in his last 176 minutes played for a whopping 5.11 GAA, with a .843 SV% 

Now it makes great soundbytes when you say we are going with the guy that got us there.  A 41 year old goaltender that got you there in the regular season, but is breaking down in the post season.

Mike Smith on the other hand has allowed  2 goals in the series with Boston. 120 minutes over 3 games played for a very small GAA of 1.00 and an incredible .958 SV%

Doesn't take a huge thought process here.

Does Boucher want to be loyal or the best chance for TB to return to the Cup Finals.

So what does history tell us about tonights games

Vancouver 3-0 at Chicago.

Teams that won the first game at home and are up 3-0, have a winning % of 64% for game 4 and a series win % of 98.1. 

In the 2010-11 regular season, Vancouver finished 20 points ahead of Chicago. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 20 regular-season points, they have posted a 5-1 (.833) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents.

MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1126 is the 71st best-of-7 playoff series for Chicago, and the 29th for Vancouver. In best-of-7 playoff series, Chicago has a 32-38 series record, a 7-7 Prelim-round series record, and a 26-44 Game 1 record, while Vancouver has a 12-16 series record, an 8-6 Prelim-round record, and a 17-11 Game 1 record. Series 1126 is the fifth best-of-7 meeting between Chicago and Vancouver; Chicago won three of the previous four.

The 2011 NHL Chicago Blackhawks thus become the 288th MLB/NBA/NHL team to face a 3-games-nil deficit, and hope to become the fifth team to surmount that deficit (with the Philadelphia Flyers' having accomplished that feat as recently as Spring 2010). The 2011 Phoenix Coyotes are 289th in the same queue.

San Jose at LA. Series tied 1-1

The NHL San Jose Sharks find themselves tied 1-game-all after Games 1-2 of their 2011 NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 series. In best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round action from 1987 through 2010 inclusiv... [More]

What usually happens in Game 3 with a 2-0 start

Sooooo....what historically has happened when a team has won both game at home and then hit the road for game 3 ?

Well.....it's it's a slight advantage when they hit the visitors ice. For all series they have a .538 win % for game 3 and almost 90% chance of winning the series.  So as you see the line it's almost right on at pretty much a pickem.

But lets dig a bit deeper with the stats.  Here with the Caps and Rangers info.

In the 2010-11 regular season, Washington finished 14 points ahead of the New York Rangers. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 14 regular-season points, they have posted an 11-7 (.611) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents.

MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1122 is the 59th best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Rangers, and the 29th for Washington. In best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Rangers have a 24-34 series record, an 8-5 Prelim-round series record, and a 26-32 Game 1 record, while Washington has a 9-19 series record, a 6-11 Prelim-round record, and a 17-11 Game 1 record.

Series 1122 is the sixth best-of-7 meeting between the New York Rangers and Washington; Washington won three of the previous five best-of-7 series between the two.

How about the Nucks and Hawks.

Vancouver finished 20 points ahead of Chicago. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best... [More]

US Goalies Ordered to Remove Slogans From Helmets

U.S. goaltenders Ryan Miller and Jonathan Quick have to cover or remove some words from their helmets that are in violation of International Olympic Comittee rules.

Miller had "Miller Time'' on the back of his helmet on Monday during practice and Jonathan Quick's helmet has "Support Our Troops'' adorned on his mask.

Szymon Szemberg, spokesman for the International Ice Hockey Federation, confirmed both players will be told to take those messages off their equipment because it's the governing bodies' task to enforce IOC rule No. 51 that bars advertising, demonstrations and propaganda.

"We're going to meet with USA Hockey tonight to see what their thoughts are,'' said Bob Condron, spokesman for the U.S. Olympic Committee. "We don't know if it's a federation or a USOC situation.''

The Americans will play their first game of the Olympics on Tuesday against Switzerland.

Earlier Monday, Miller acknowledged knowing about the rules that prohibit corporate sponsorships at the Olympics, but went ahead and had ``Miller Time'' painted on the mask he designed for the Vancouver Games. Miller said he had been informed to get rid of the tag line because it's a slogan for a beer maker,

"Just having fun,'' Miller said with a wink.

But he's upset officials are also taking ... [More]

Dec 26th hockey thread, picks, stats and info

I hope everyone had a great holiday !!! 

Give the 1st period unders a very close look today.

Polar_Bear 2-0
LuckyGuy 1-0
Euler 1-0
phat03 1-0 (Won last 2 games)
Jab38 1-0 (Hit a 3 team parlay !!)

zipnjaz 4-1 (7-1 run)
myrkur15 3-1 (Hit a parlay)

Columbus  at  Detroit (7:00 PM)
N.Y. Islanders  at  N.Y. Rangers (7:00 PM)
Montreal  at  Toronto (7:00 PM)
Philadelphia  at  Carolina (7:00 PM)
New Jersey  at  Washington (7:00 PM)
Ottawa  at  Buffalo (7:00 PM)
Atlanta  at  Tampa Bay (7:30 PM)
Chicago  at  Nashville (8:00 PM)
St. Louis  at  Minnesota (8:00 PM)
Dallas  at  Colorado (9:00 PM)
Los Angeles  at  Phoenix (9:00 PM)
Edmonton  at  Vancouver (10:00 PM)
Anaheim  at  San Jose (10:30 PM)

Goaltending Injury Transactions ... [More]

Oct 12th Hockey Thread...Picks, info, stats, trends (Early games)

Looks like the Ducks minds were already on the plane before the game started. Just 18 shots the whole game. The Stars stole a point in Vancouver, but Turco turns in his usual performance in the SO. Floppy, floppy, floppy.    5 for Fighting 3-0 (That includes a huge PL dog and he's on a 10-0 run now !!!!!)
Donovan39 3-0
Wookie 1-0
scamallama 1-0 (Welcome to the board over here)
bracks 1-0 (Won last 2 games)
bear 1-0
Szejtan 1-0
K4ngur13 1-0
  Colorado  at  Boston (1:05 PM)
Los Angeles  at  N.Y. Islanders (2:05 PM)
Toronto  at  N.Y. Rangers (7:00 PM)
New Jersey  at  Washington (7:05 PM)
Florida  at  Tampa Bay (7:35 PM)
Pittsburgh  at  Ottawa (7:35 PM)
Calgary  at  Chicago (8:05 PM)
Edmonton  at  Nashville (8:05 PM)
Phoenix  at  San Jose (10:35 PM)   Goaltending Injury Transactions ... [More]

Long term deals for Hossa and Pronger raises red flags for NHL

Because of growing concerns over the manner in which teams are locking up top players to front-loaded, long-term contracts, the National Hockey League has launched an investigation into the recent signings of Marian Hossa and Chris Pronger, sources told ESPN.com.

The NHL will hire an outside firm to determine whether the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers discussed a time line for Hossa's or Pronger's potential retirement before the long-term contracts were signed.

At the end of the investigation the NHL will decide whether to pursue charges against the the teams for circumventing the collective bargaining agreement. The teams could face fines, the loss of draft picks or both.

Hossa signed a 12-year deal with the Blackhawks that begins with payments of $7.9 million for the first seven years and finishes with four years at $1 million annually. The overall the cap hit for the Blackhawks is a completely manageable $5.275 million a year.

Hossa will turn 42 if he plays to the end of the contract, which raised red flags for the NHL and was one factor in calling for a probe of the deal.

The NHL is also concerned ab... [More]

Fedorov sues for $43 million loss

Hurricanes sign Ruutu, Leafs hire Poulin