Lippsman's Blog

I'll give you the holy grail of gambling...

By Lippsman | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, June 09, 2009 08:44 AM   162 comments

But 99% of you will not be able to follow it.

 

No offense to anyone, but it takes patience and more patience. You can't get into the thrill of making big bucks on every play.  I can honestly say that since I've used internet accounts, I've never tapped out.  I've taken money out at the end of the season.  But that was me just getting the cash. Not tapping out.

We had this discussion last year.  Very good info.  I will actually have people argue that this is not the way to go.  Well, I have math on my side.  Also I have the proof of not putting any money in my internet accounts by tapping since 1996.

First of all.  Lay off the parlays.  UNLESS........You are parlaying two big favs.  That will make them into an even wager or a dog. I see so many people trying to score the huge hit by parlaying 4 or more teams. 

Second.  Just because it's a big fav, doesn't mean they are going to win. There are plenty of upsets in hockey. 

Third. It kind of goes with the first two.  Stay away from the juice. It will just kill ya.  You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit.  This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice.  Also it turns big favs to nice dogs.  You can turn that -150 into a +137.  That's a huge difference.  Yes, you will get some ties.  But that's part of the game.

Fourth......Don't chase.........just don't do it.  Now I have some friends on other boards.  Well, mainly one board that does this.  Sometime down the road you are going to get hit.  It may be awhile.  But one day you will tap out.

Fifth.......Here is really the whole ball of wax here.  This is the grail of it all.

Have your bankroll set.  I mean your whole bankroll.  Just wager a percentage of your bankroll for each game.  Here is what I do.

I wager 2.5% of my bankroll on each game.  I've actually lowered this again this year.  It was 4%, before the lockout.  Then, last year it was 3%. 

 Class...........pay attention.........

Say you start out with......OK.........I will use some real world numbers that most of you probably are using.  You start out with $1000.  Then you decide to take the Bruins and Canes at Even money.

You would wager $25 on both teams.  Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050.  Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up.  That's where the snowball starts.  Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first.  But if you keep winning your wagers will go up.  That's when you should wager more.  But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose.  Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose.  Well your bankroll is down to $950.  So your next wager would be $23.75.  Now this is where the real power of this comes in.  When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down.  Again, exactly opposite what most people do.

One of the complaints of this is most people say when I get on a winning streak I'm making less money because I'm down a few hundred.  I should be winning $25 or $30 a game instead of $20 or so. 

Well, if you start winning your wagers will start to creep up.  I will bump my percentage up if I'm on a winning streak.  Hell, after the Olympic break a couple of years ago, I I was up to 6% on my wagers in March and the first week of April

If you hit that streak push it a bit.  But make sure your on a streak, not just winning a few games.  If you play like this you will never go broke.  If it's the action your looking for please stop now.  You will be telling a sad story to people.  That's the reason 99% of people can't do this.  It's the action they need.  They don't wager logically.

I know a handful of people in my network that do this.  They are very astute.  They don't play everyday.  The don't force a play.  But they do wager by a percentage of their actual bankroll.

Come on and join this handful. You won't be sorry.

Good skill to everyone this year.  I will be watching.
 
162 comments
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Lippsman says:
06/09/09 09:24AM

Yeah, that lost about 5 units this year and lost a little over 2 units last year.  Two years in a row will probably get me to lay off the 1st game of each series next year.

After over a decade of profits it has taken a bit of a dive.....

All Good Things..........

Lippsman says:
06/09/09 09:25AM

I wouldn't advise it unless you were already up some.

mightiestmojo says:
06/09/09 10:09AM
Very insightful
Kirkpicard says:
06/09/09 10:11AM
Great write up Lipps ! Good advice for those who want to stay around and enjoy gameing ! I can assure you people his strategy and money managment works and if you want to not go broke (tap out ) you better listen to this advice. I have been gambling since 1985 and was given this same advice and still enjoy handicapping all sports events. My only diference is I always make all bets 3% of starting yearly bankroll. Now my bankroll is large and expendable so their is no pressure but I never vary my amount and never chase. When cold make less total bets and increase when hot. It has worked for me. Also know what sports you are best at and worst at handicapping.Keep records so you know what to stay away from or decrease your action during that time of the year. Most importantly always be honest with yourself on what you win or lose. This can be a fun a lasting activity that actually can pay you, or a terrible habit that can ruin your life. Those just starting out, listen to Lipps this is  great advice and a good informative thread !!

Good Luck to all !!!

 

By the way who do you think is going to win the game tonight Lipps ! I took Det + 115 yesterday but dont feel that strong about this morning !

Johnnypicks says:
06/09/09 10:16AM
Now you see why I bumped it! 
Lippsman says:
06/09/09 10:16AM
I took the Wings...But I also have a wager the Series won't go 7 games and I have the Wings to win the series.  So if the Wings win tonight it will be -fest for me tonight.
Luckeye says:
06/09/09 10:24AM
must read for newbies. Its gambling 101
Wizerguy says:
06/09/09 10:44AM

I have used this method for a while in the NFL. The only sport I cap.

Better than the stock market if you can cap the games and pick winners.Took me years to become good at it and be patient and disciplined to follow it. Life is good

 

Nice read

Wizerguy says:
06/09/09 10:55AM

 

Also know what sport you are best at:

.Keep records so you know what( Mistakes) to stay away from.

 Spot on my friend...spot on

Wizerguy says:
06/09/09 11:01AM
Gamblings not the problem...losing is.

 

Follow Lipps advice...and learn how to win

 

then you wont have a problem anymore.

 

 

The wize

Monkeybongos says:
06/09/09 11:04AM
Great comments, Lipps. I disagree w one point, though. Believe there are times to hammer the rare game where everything aligns (the line, consensus, situation). This happens maybe 10 times a year, and applies for seasoned players able to remain objective in their analysis-and able to recognize the difference between "thinking you know" and "knowing you know". It's a strategy used by the most successful investors: it's not how often you're right or wrong, but the degree of rightness that determines how profitable you are.
KongKiller says:
06/09/09 11:26AM
Great Advice, Thanks Lipps!
OldTownMan says:
06/09/09 11:45AM
Nice article.
TIMBER9 says:
06/09/09 12:03PM
Good write up Lipps..... Very solid.
cloverboy says:
06/09/09 02:39PM
I'll debate this issue with making parlays with anybody, ANYBODY !! PARLAYS ARE ACTUALLY A SAFE WAY TO BET, You just have to have an understanding of math and odds and how to look at a matrix. It's a hidden gem.
gfoss59 says:
06/09/09 02:56PM
As a mathematical proposition, parlays are a disadvantage to the better, because the house expands its implicit cut with each leg of the parlay.

One thing I do like, however, is a parlay if it's sequential, and small. If you think about it, Lipssman, it's just a way to take a

If the events are sequential (a game at 1, a game or two at 4, one at seven, a game the next day) you can hedge the back end or two of the parlay... if it hits.

If you miss because of only one early game, you can reposition for the later plays, straight up.

Thanks for the general guidelines, L. Good piece, good advice.

bomber0104 says:
06/09/09 04:57PM
Great stuff... gonna try it with baseball.. I'm definitely not disciplined so it will be tough
stackinchips says:
06/09/09 07:07PM
Really good stuff lippsman.  Exactly how betting on baseball should be as well!  Hope you don't mind, i posted a link to this on the baseball forum.
happycap says:
06/09/09 07:09PM
Lipps could you take a gander at P2 of my thread - needs fumigation.  Thanks.
happycap says:
06/09/09 07:24PM
LIPPS there are no linesman on call??????????? this complete fuckhead is having his way in a bunch of threads and no one has banned this mthrfkr yet???????
Fathomable says:
06/10/09 04:25AM
good skill this season               
jdelanes06 says:
06/10/09 08:07PM
Lipps, Great thread.

What books offer -1 lines?
Lippsman says:
06/10/09 08:47PM

5dimes or you can make your own.

Lippsman says:
06/11/09 09:31AM
Yeah, I wouldn't play anything over a 2 teamer and again that's just if both are juiced.

 

But my God.......if that guy hit a 4 team run parlay it would be.

 

In baseball I will take the runline on teams that are -140 or more.  Some pretty nice paybacks there.

Schmohawk says:
06/11/09 02:43PM
Good stuff - looks like this thread has quite a shelf life!
secondandtwo says:
06/13/09 08:50PM
kelly criterion in action
INVESTINSPORTS says:
08/22/09 05:58PM
Lippsman........

I would hope everyone should read this before jumping in to the sports wagering arena!  I know I remind myself of all those golden rules about once a week, but I have tweaked it a tad to meet my own personnal style, especially now that I do this for a living!

The one thing I will do is parlay two big favorites together to knock down and or eliminate juice.  It really bothers me when I see everyone picking those favorites and laying -170, -190, 210, +++++

I rarely even go over -125 and even than, I feel like I'm holding my breath since I don't believe in laying anything if possible. 

I run with 5 different offshore accounts and a local, so I can be real selective, do some serious shopping......as you can imagine, many times I don't pull the trigger because I can't find the odds that fall into my safe zone....so its you must show patience....but only if your serious....

The one thing I strive for is this.  I STRIVE TO BE RIGHT 5 MORE TIMES THAN I AM WRONG EACH AND EVERY MONTH.  If you can do that, you can make a comfortable living.....at $1000 a pop

Hey......thanks Lippsman......You always contribute strong but yet common sense material......I read a ton of stuff on all sports and I enjoy reading what everyone has to say and I learn from putting all that I read and hear into some form of future edge on a game, a weeks worth of games, a months worth of games, and a season full of games......

There are many many opportunities to find invest type sport wagers and patience is the key.......

Thanks Lippsman and thank you everyone for all your input

INVESTINSPORTS
NORMAJEAN says:
08/27/09 11:13PM
drknow says:
08/28/09 07:54AM
zipnjaz says:
10/22/09 09:31AM
another year rant......

from zimbabwe ??
zipnjaz says:
11/13/09 04:31PM


Yeah Hilton Head ,,,,,somehow I don't see the connection
cjlipe says:
11/13/09 03:07PM
Nice writeup. I just wonder how many people on here are trying it.
happycap says:
09/29/09 03:10PM
Very interesting take 53.... probably truer than it sounds actually.  Pretty sure Lipps' advice is abided by professional gamblers who succeed at it though...difference is they probably begin with greater bankrolls and the rest is exponential.  As INNVESTINSPORTS said above, it is probably necessary to dime bet to really have a hope of living off of this... otherwise, different ballgame in many ways. 
MRSARATOGA says:
11/07/09 02:43PM
cbsscott says:
10/02/09 05:42PM
intresting!!
byonusho says:
09/29/09 05:25PM
This is the best writeup in a long time I have read. You are 100% right on all fronts. I am a professional sports gambler and I tell you it is still hard for me to keep in line every day.
gers says:
08/28/09 12:06PM

  worse with parlays is missin by 1 game still get the chills of  the hartford vs penguin game years ago 49k parlay flushed down the sewer by a whaler upset

gers says:
08/28/09 12:07PM
great thread   there lippsman
Lippsman says:
08/28/09 04:23PM
Thanks guys, glad this still has legs and can help people out.

 

Now..........

 

Tuesday it's time to get back to business.

 

First division preview coming up.

 

Lippsman says:
10/02/09 04:18PM

5Dimes, but you can make your own -1 lines.

Lippsman says:
11/07/09 02:27PM

It is possible, but if you were bring down your wagers as you were losing, the chances of halving your bankroll is very low. If it took a hit like that you would have to be picking about 20%.

Lippsman says:
10/22/09 10:02AM

We love our pucks down here......err....over here..........whereever the hell we are.

Lippsman says:
10/22/09 09:02AM

It works great for any season. It's really simple once you put in play.  You win your wager more money because there is more in your account.  You start losing then the wagers are cut back so there is less in play.

Lippsman says:
10/22/09 09:03AM

That's correct

Lippsman says:
10/22/09 01:04AM

No, it you re-read again I stated that I will bump up the percentage if I'm on a run. But never on just one game.  I wager all the games the same.  When you start picking and choosing you are just asking for trouble.

Lippsman says:
11/13/09 10:33PM

Hilton Head........

Strike one.

Lippsman says:
11/20/09 06:48PM
bump for a certain poster
Lippsman says:
12/17/09 08:36PM

Amen, I got my ass kicked in pucks last night. Thank goodness for college baskets to bail my ass out for gods sake.

I did lower my wagers today a bit where the bankroll went down.

Glad this is helping a few people out.

Thanks

Lippsman says:
01/20/10 10:37AM
I just do it for each day instead of each game.
Lippsman says:
08/15/10 02:35PM

It's getting about that time again.

Lippsman says:
08/16/10 07:59PM

That's a nice size bankroll to start out with Johnny.  Let's see it tripled by the end of the year.

Mallette says:
05/17/10 03:26AM
bump
Johnnypicks says:
12/17/09 08:59PM
detorit not doing me any favours.............yr this year would be alot different
Johnnypicks says:
11/13/09 04:21PM
ive been using just less the 2.5 prcnt since nov 1st
Johnnypicks says:
08/16/10 02:58PM
BR starts at 2500
Johnnypicks says:
10/02/09 04:21PM
bumping this thread sure helps
Johnnypicks says:
09/16/09 09:26AM
15 days to go....., gamblers take a good look
Johnnypicks says:
09/27/09 11:44AM
4days................ttt
tomslicksta says:
10/21/09 07:30PM
Found this thread while doing my due diligence on money management technique. Thanks for the detailed write-up - very, very helpful for a bright-eyed newbie.
soupy2512 says:
08/29/09 03:13AM
your congreadulating each other and hockey hasn't even started.I can't wait for it to starty either.fuck I can call the Islanders good here.LOL
soupy2512 says:
08/29/09 03:27AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Lippsman]

Your welcome guys.  Welcome to the board NHL fan.

 

I call bullshit on NHl fan98

err says:
01/20/10 10:35AM
This might be a stupid question but ... example you start with 1000$ and wager 2.5% of your roll do you apply the 2.5% to your bankroll after each bet?

1000$

Bet#1 1000$ x 2.5%
Bet#2 975$ x 2.5%

Or you apply the % to your starting bankroll that particular day example Day1 you have 1000$ so all your wager for that day will be 1000$ x 2.5% = 25$ on Day2 you have 950$ so its 950$ x 2.5% for the whole day.

Thanks
err says:
01/20/10 10:50AM
Thanks for the quick reply Lipps, some nice stuff you got there I remembered reading it awhile ago and thought about it this morning.

I hope you are having a good season thus far
53percent says:
09/29/09 10:08AM
good advice for the retiree or water cooler guy. but if this were truly about return. there are better ways both in percentage and security to gain wealth than sports betting. Serioulsy just give blood, collect cans, enter free sweepstakes.

 

if you win 55% of your wagers at -105 and bet 2.5% of 1k getting 2 games a night. in 100 nites you will have made just ovr 388$ and problably invested around 67 hours conservatively just in selecting your plays.

 

now go put that 67 hours in as a bus boy in a sports bar where you get a free meal, hang with cute chicks, make real contacts and watch the games. At  8 bucks an hour conservatively you wouldve had $536.

 

or imagine spending that 67 hours and the 300 sweating games with your kids and wives. now deduct the therapy, school costs, dui lawyer, and divorce costs and you net about 150,000.00.

 

so here is my take, gamble whatever you want as long as you have examined the opportunity cost. if you go broke 50x and still decide its is a lfe you prefer to the guy at the water cooler who is betting pizzas on sports radio and claiming a knowledge of the game you could rebut in 15 seconds reducing him to the infantile puke he truly is (in sports knowledge of course) then enjoy it.

 

fact is lippsman your philosophy is great for the 3-6player, but most guys on here will play 2-5-25 plo if only they have the stake. And money management is for other aspects of life.

puckpicker1 says:
11/13/09 04:22PM
Thanks Lipps, but I bet against the LEAFS every game so my % really works out well!!!
4przw2 says:
10/02/09 02:22PM
what online books offer -1 games that could result in a tie?

with the OT now i didn't realize you could play -1 reg time.

 

what books are u using lipps?

 

thx

 

 

 

 

LiveFastDieRich says:
12/17/09 03:05PM

Felt the need to bump this...after a rough night last night it helps keep you from getting reckless and throwing it all in to TRY to win it all back.

Great write-up Lippsman...appreciate all the work you do in the forum

IHIOUSE says:
10/02/09 06:04PM
FreakyFresh says:
11/13/09 04:10PM
One of the most intelligent well thought out posts I've read on this site for the most part.

The MM system is exactly how I have my thread set up in Systems and Strategies, under Investment Project. My only difference is that I don't weight every game evenly (2.5% of my bankroll, but play the % based on the strength of the lean, sometimes playing upwards to 8-9% of the bankroll.)

This way really seems to be the way to go. You are essentially building upon your own returned money (Compounding interest!). As Albert Einstein once said "Compounding interest is the strongest force on Earth). In my thread which is exclusively College Football I am only 13-9 on the year but have upped my bankroll by 55% in just 4 1/2 weeks because of this.)

Great post!


dynamicz says:
10/22/09 08:50AM
great read, thx for info
dynamicz says:
10/22/09 08:50AM
hows this worked out for the last two seasons?
K4ngur13 says:
10/22/09 12:30AM
vegasdennis says:
08/16/10 12:32PM
Great to see this bumped back up
ENIGGMA says:
09/29/09 03:50PM
theycallmekevin says:
10/02/09 02:00PM
this will be my first full season betting hockey, and i am definitely looking forward to it.  this was a great writeup lippsman.  bol to everyone.
nyknut says:
10/22/09 06:28AM
you da man. i really like this system, thanks for sharing, keep it up
I-Got-5-On-It says:
05/17/10 12:26PM

It's good to see this thread is still around. In fact it should actually go to the archives    

I-Got-5-On-It says:
08/15/10 07:24PM

Good to see this thread is still around  

Essential reading for all gamblers, whatever your experience or bankroll

windatmuney says:
10/22/09 12:57PM

what if i'm just rolling bad and from that 1000 i'm now down to 500 with juice and everything...i'm now betting 10...will i be able to get back to even? I don't believe that is possible

harchibald says:
08/15/10 03:09PM
nice writing .
The-OG-GunClapa says:
08/16/10 12:05PM

Ive read this 5 times in the off season. Definitely some of the best info on covers!
Going to really try and use this style for this season.
BOL everyone!
The-OG-GunClapa says:
08/17/10 12:44AM

Chicago Philly.........................










OVER
avsfan135 says:
08/15/10 07:04PM
Thanks Again Lipps
avsfan135 says:
05/17/10 09:25AM
Thanks Lipps
madjacksucks says:
05/17/10 09:58AM
excellente
zipnjaz says:
09/13/10 10:03AM

against   the holy grail,,,,,as in the past 8 years  good stuff....

 

let the puck drop....................

Black_Hole says:
04/25/12 09:28PM
spockgato says:
02/03/12 09:17AM
jmw59 says:
05/12/12 08:58AM
HoldenRg says:
10/04/11 06:23PM
I agree completely my man. I follow the percentage rule and have profit every season


PEACE!
wiggins says:
03/28/11 05:16PM

how was your playoff dog system last year lipps?

Lippsman says:
09/14/10 08:42PM

One loss will take out about 5 wins.

Lippsman says:
09/03/10 03:24PM

Where you are in Canada you have Pinny to play -1 lines.  Also 5dimes offers -1 lines.

But you can make your own -1 lines no matter at what book you play at.

Lippsman says:
09/04/10 11:26AM

As a rule don't ever play anything above -140.  Just don't do it.  If you like a play that's over -140, then play a PL or -1 line or regulation line.   Get that juice down or make that juicy fav a dog.

Lippsman says:
09/12/10 09:55AM

You get it back by winning and when you start to win a again those wagers go back up day by day.

Lippsman says:
08/23/10 02:51PM

Another player serves the penalty for him. I will see if I can find the thread, but I think it may of been deleted.  I will start another one in a few weeks if it can not be found.

Lippsman says:
08/23/10 09:04PM

Not at all.

Lippsman says:
08/25/10 08:13PM

I am up a great deal over 25+ years.  The amount you wager is all relative to the person involved.  It all depends on how much you have to wager.  $20 may not be much to you, but to others it is or that is all they want to wager.

I don't look down on anyone on the amount they wager.  Personally I wouldn't waste my time on something like that, but again who am I to judge what someone can afford.

Personally it's not being alive for me to make wagers.  It's making a profit no matter what.  Going double or nothing is a way to never make money.  But again, if thats how you play then go for it.

BOL this year.

Lippsman says:
10/02/11 11:40AM

For the 2011-12 season.

Best of skill to everyone.

I will be watching.

 

Lippsman says:
02/23/12 01:51PM

As requested.

Lippsman says:
10/04/11 10:23PM

I do and that's what you need to gamble. You can't think of it as money.  You will be become emotionally involved it you do that.  When that happens you will become irrational and make errors in your picks and money management.

Scared money is lost money.

Stay the course.

Lippsman says:
01/30/12 09:20AM

If you are already up, then your then you already would be wagering more. 

But really, when do you ever think you have a 90% of winning without laying a huge ML of -250 or more.  You already know my thought of laying a ML that large !!!!  In pucks and baseball you PL or RL it.  Or again find another game that you think is a 90% chance of winning and parlay it. 

Anything to get the juice down.

Lippsman says:
05/10/12 09:21AM

I collect every single season. The bankroll has been built over decades.  Yes you can wager a higher percenage, but you do risk tapping.  I am a very conservative gambler.

If anyone thinks they are going to make a living gambling they are sadly mistaken. But if you want some nice extra income you have come to the right spot.

And if you are the very few that can make a living gambling then by all means wager 5% or 8% of your bankroll on a game.  But you had better be able to stick with the low juice and pick a good percenage of your games.

 

Lippsman says:
05/10/12 08:18AM

Glad to see it's still helping people.

wizardofroz says:
05/10/12 08:35AM

Lippsman, not to be a hater, because I have a lot of respect for you here.  But, with your money management, how often have you collected?  Or are you basically maintaining close to your initial balance and making no positive progress? 

Hypothetically, I could have a $1000 bankroll like you initially stated, and never have to reload when betting $25 per game.  But after a year or so, my balance may be about the same.  Higher risk equals higher reward, and bankroll management sounds like a fancy term for betting small and taking little risk. 

wizardofroz says:
05/10/12 08:45AM

"Money management" sounds great, but is inherently flawed to a person that tries to make a living in the brutal world of gambling.  However, it is great for a RECREATIONAL bettor who wants to bet small and always have money in their account.

However, if one is trying to make some serious money betting sports, the time invested with money management wagers does not pay the bills, and is actually self-defeating and a waste of time. 

 

Johnnypicks says:
10/02/11 06:58PM

 

Johnnypicks says:
10/02/11 06:59PM

Johnnypicks says:
08/20/10 09:59AM

thats what i start with every year,,,I use up most of my units during the off season wasting it on baseball every now and then..lol...j/k

I genrally buy some stuff to show for what Ive accomplished

last year I paid the car off cash..

this year I wanna buy a new one

Johnnypicks says:
08/17/10 09:03AM

are you trying to keep me resereved????

 looking to roll X10

Johnnypicks says:
08/19/10 11:33AM

lol...3yrs one post..

Crashdavis565 says:
02/03/12 05:28AM
wilko118 says:
05/12/12 03:12PM
good stuff
metalbill says:
01/30/12 01:13AM
EVERYONE should read this. solid advice Lippsman.
BostonStrangler says:
08/19/10 11:32AM
"good skill to everyone"
SUP3RMAN says:
10/02/11 12:35PM
Well said lippsman, lets have a good NHL season this year! 
OnlyGod says:
10/04/11 09:47PM
Sounds good you must have the discipline of an experienced warrior to make this work.
dilaudid8 says:
05/11/12 09:03AM
ty lippsman very nice write up you are right a very few can make a living at gambling gl in the world
ashulist says:
09/13/10 04:14PM


You're absolutely right with what you're saying, however, many people use "juice" and "chalk" interchangeably as if they mean the same thing. "Juice" refers to the amount of discrepancy between what each team pays out. i.e. the amount the book keeps (ex: favorite pays -120 and underdog pays +110 = low juice. Favorite pays -120 and underdog pays +100 = higher juice).

"Chalk" on the other hand refers to the team that is the favorite in the game. You do not want to lay too much chalk b/c you might have to hit 75% just to break even. (ex: favorite pays -300, you will need to get 3 out of 4 of those wagers right just to get back what you lost on the one game you got wrong).

You are absolutely right with what you mean but you actually are trying to say to get rid of the chalk, not the juice. You cannot get rid of the juice nor can you change it b/c the books sets the juice but by parlaying 2 favorites you can get rid of the chalk.
knowitall101 says:
06/13/11 04:41PM
wow Great write up brother will try and do that make it a lil easyer on myself!
vegasdennis says:
05/09/12 03:23PM
Someone requested this 
bamabilly says:
10/04/11 07:00PM
     Thank you, Sensei Lippsman! Your original post is one of, if not the very most informative and intelligent posts that I have ever seen. I look forward to applying these principles to the NHL season. You have given us some very sound advice. I have been guilty of lacking discipline in the past and will seek to change that in 2011/2012.

Good luck this season and I am looking forward to reading more posts and plays from you.
                                                                              
SultanSidi says:
08/23/10 09:39PM
Thank you sir 
SultanSidi says:
08/23/10 08:31PM
would you mind if i post this in the soccer forum? 
eddiegray says:
09/12/10 08:38AM
Solid write up Lippsman
I-Got-5-On-It says:
06/11/11 05:56PM

I'm talking to 5 posters now, 3 here and two others on other boards about making thier own -1 lines because thier book doesn't offer them.

I believe I need to go over these again, because I just see too much money flying at these huge ML's.

Here is a conversation I'm having with a bettor that just joined the daily pucks thread here right now.

-------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you keep it going also.  But if I may give some advice.  Stay away from laying those huge ML's.  They will just kill ya.  You notice how I played the Caps and Nucks but played -1 lines ? Also see what Zamboni played ?  It gets the juice way down,  I made two dogs out of two favs.

I see you played the Nucks on the ML and PL.  You in fact just made your own -1 line by playing that. It's just the amounts you played on each to even it out.

If I may ?

If you wanted to win $100, you would wager $50.82 on the ML and $32.79.  You have wagered only $83.61 to win $100 !!!!!

You should do this on any big juice game.  I consider laying big juice at -140 or more. But of course you could also play a -.5 line that will get the juice down also.

------------------------------------------------------

In some cases, making your own -1 line is actually cheaper than taking the -1 at books that offer them.  All two or 3 of them I think.

Here is the formula for making them.

100x/(x+1)     where x = ml
 
if you plan on betting $100 on a game with -1.30 ml and +1.60 pl
 
 
100(1.30)/(1.3 + 1)
=130/2.3
=$56 on the ml........therefore $44 on pl
 
works out to approx. +1.15 for the -1 spread

-------------------------------------------------------

I have been setting on this for awhile.  But OK....if you want an Excel spreadsheet where you can just plug in the numbers, PM me.  You don't have to be a friend, anyone can PM a mod.  I will e-mail you the sheet.

You can put in the amount you want to wager or the amount you want to win.

     Lippsman's -1 conversion formula

just posting it in here for future reference for other posters

I-Got-5-On-It says:
08/23/10 12:40PM

Hey Lippsman

Any chance you can find that ''anyone new to hockey'' Q & A thread you had last year , some good info in that thread too 

I have a qustion here about goaltenders & penalty minutes

If a goaltender is involved in a fight ( I know it's a rare occurence)can another player be sent to the penalty box to serve the 5 minutes penalty for him just like he would for a two minute infraction ?

I-Got-5-On-It says:
08/23/10 05:10PM

I-Got-5-On-It says:
09/14/10 06:16PM

Hey Lippsman

I know you're a fan of NFL teasers but what do you think of reverse puck lines, especially ones where you turn a favourite into a +1.5 dog ??

Mr-Unit says:
09/14/10 12:53PM
you can get extremely low juice on sites like matchbook
pinny and 5dimes
ECRaidersfan says:
09/07/10 08:21PM

Sound advice Lipps and glad to see this bumped before the start of the season. BOL to everyone this year and Go CAPS of course!

 

EC

topcat69 says:
06/13/11 12:17AM
Thanks for the knowledge
The-OG-GunClapa says:
10/02/11 10:55PM
love seeing this
always reminds me hockeys back
By far the most valuable thread on covers.
The-OG-GunClapa says:
08/17/10 12:44AM
Sosana says:
06/13/11 02:40PM

Great Advice Lipps,

Problem for most is the gamblin demon that comes alive when they loose...aka chase their money after a loss...In time I believe most long term players will learn from this but others never will..

BOL Brother

QuebecNordiques says:
08/19/10 01:09PM

i will be using the system has worked great for me, and larger wagers is out of my pocket money,. gotta keep diciplined. gotta admit nervous, uppin my bankroll this season,. not as much as johnny p yet.

Hudini says:
09/12/10 05:31AM
Lippsman I play your way for some time in MLB, but what happends when start to lose. How to geth back?
Hudini says:
09/21/10 11:32AM
Only problem is how to pick winner under and over have good line. We will see when NHL start
flyersfan27 says:
09/03/10 06:53PM
Thanks Lippsman. I'll check out 5dimes and Pinnacle.
flyersfan27 says:
09/03/10 08:43PM
"Third. Stay away from the juice. It will just kill ya.  You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit.  This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice."

Could someone please translate this into something a wagering virgin can understand? Thanks.
flyersfan27 says:
09/03/10 02:04PM
Looking for advice from anyone. I just read Lippsman's Holy Grail. However, my problem in wagering, is that I have only picked teams to win or lose. Is there a quality site out there that explains what juice, -1 Lines, nice dogs, Turn -150 into +137 etc... is? It's one thing to get into a game, but knowing the rules never hurt.
3wizard9 says:
10/04/11 08:32PM

pinoy1da says:
01/30/12 04:08AM
spartak says:
02/13/12 10:26AM
chaseedwards says:
10/03/11 03:30PM
You have to go on pretty terrible run to go tap if you follow bankroll management.  Gambling like everything else in life is discipline.  Being selective in teams as well, there's a lot of games every night you don't have to bet the board.

As for juice I stick to O/U in hockey, never get hit that bad on those.
dragonrickjs says:
01/30/12 02:25AM
best write up ive read on here   
PTOTOUR says:
05/12/12 07:21PM
I_Need_A_Detox says:
03/28/11 12:44PM
WeMoveLines says:
10/02/11 10:11PM

Well said Lippsman - I am going to follow this strategy this season..

EstakaBriones says:
03/28/11 02:27PM
Lippsman great advice ...like collectNOW mentions "mission statement" is hard to do. It should be mandatory reading for a covers newbie .
Fortmax says:
06/13/11 03:45AM
Thank  you sir !
ghostfaceripper says:
06/13/11 04:49PM

isn't this common sense?  I learned from my mistakes and thats what makes a gambler get better.  If u keep making the same mistakes over and over again u have to adjust.  Juz use your brain.......I know it sucks but it works.

tommy_covers says:
10/05/11 12:40AM
great stuff Mr. Lippsman .... I will be watching as well lets get it 
gomburzago says:
01/29/12 11:33PM
what about if you are like 90% sure that a team is going to win or cover the spread? Would it not be justifiable to double the wagering amount?
Zeehaus says:
01/30/12 10:25AM
Excellent information. I have a couple of differences only but concur with pretty much all of it. I don't increase my bet size or decrease it everyday..a little too much minutia for me. I generally flat bet a certain amount and then increase at a certain point when I'm comfortable, although not this season as I've made a couple of sizeable withdrawals. 

Also, I don't decrease my bet size when losing...but I also don't increase it..I keep it stable. I know some may disagree but given I basically play each game for 1 unit (with rare exceptions), I'm of the belief that if I ever drop 25 units at any point which would basically tap me out, I shouldn't be wagering in the first place.

GL to all in the 2nd half


HookE says:
04/25/12 07:40PM
whitepuma says:
02/23/12 01:55PM
idle_havoc says:
05/10/12 09:44PM
worth a try
SnakeEyes88 says:
01/31/12 05:46AM
well said
Hooter5 says:
01/30/12 01:33PM
Daywalker331 says:
05/12/12 08:08AM

I AGREE WITH YOU 100 %

thedirtybirds17 says:
01/30/12 08:22AM
Very good info.
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