LonghornHoosier's Blog

Week 1 - Post your Top 3 Plays and Perceived Spread

By LonghornHoosier | View all Posts
Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 08:10 PM   32 comments

Mississippi State Over Memphis -31

Missouri over Miami (Ohio) -22

Pitt over Buffalo -32

 

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getoffmyface says:
07/15/11 11:59PM

Little more than 3 but i was on a roll

 

Georgia(pk) over Boise 27-17

Miami FL(-4) over Maryland 35-20

SCar(-17.5) over East Carolina 45-16

Florida (-35) over Florida Atlantic 63-7

Purdue-(14.5) over Middle Tenn 42-10

Houston (-3.5) over UCLA 31-21

Colorado (+3) over Hawaii 41-27

WV(-22.5) over Marshall 41-10

Colo st (-7) over New Mexico 37-17

Weber st (+14.5) over Wyoming (lose but cover 17-24)

Idaho (-7) over Bowling Green 28-16

SJ st (+37) over Stanford (lose but cover 13-38)

Richmond (+7.5) over DUKE 24-21

Virginia (-11.5) over William +Mary 31-13

 

bookieassassin says:
07/16/11 01:15AM
Michigan -18
Baylor +7
NW +4
ksuwins says:
07/16/11 01:17AM

Ain't touchin MU.  New QB and once again, no defense.  I'm not saying they won't roll...but 3 TD's plus is tall.  Don't know about their kicker this season, but one missed PAT and you're screwed.
tommy_covers says:
07/16/11 01:20AM
Mississippi State -24 over Memphis
USC -21 over Minnesota
Alabama -36 over Kent State


Looking hard at closer spreads and UNDERS
cherokee10 says:
07/16/11 01:37AM

Miss St -35

NW +3.5

Michigan -20ish

Memphis is god-awful, and MSU is bound for a great season.

NW has too much talent back to not scare the Big10 this year, Persa is the real deal, 100% healthy as well....BC will have a good D, but that's about it.

Michigan won't turn heads this year with Hoke, but believe they won't show mercy against their OOC schedule....esp WMU....Hoke will want some style points early, expecting a 45-10 type score.

tommy_covers says:
07/16/11 02:16AM
Others (total guesses on the lines)

Houston -3 over UCLA
Texas -31 over Rice
Ohio State -28 over Akron

Boston College PK over Northwestern

Florida State -35 over UL Monroe

BYU +4 at Ole Miss

Maryland +2 vs Miami Fla

SMU +11 at Texas A&M
DoubleUp4Life says:
07/16/11 01:14PM

just wondering if you have followed William & Mary the last few years ???

chef702 says:
07/16/11 02:10PM

Arkansas St +18

The O-line is new but I expect the offense to produce.  The front 7 on D is legit but the secondary blows.  I was not so impressed with Sheelhaase as a passer, he is a better runner.  With the explosive offense of Arkansas St. I think the Zookster will control the tempo with the run making it hard to cover this one or leaving the backdoor open.

Florida -34???

The Muschamp/Wiess era begins by sending Schnellenberger into retirement.  To much talent on this team not to be productive.  Got to build some confidence in the opener and get everyone involved.

Syracuse -4

Doug Marrone has made me a believer.  SU lost some experience on D and seems to be undersized, WF D is even smaller.  Although this is a pretty even matchup it looks like two programs headed in different directions.  Giving SU the nod for the dome

SMU +19

A&M is good but I like the 'Stangs to keep it within 3 scores.  June Jones will have this team ready.  The offense is there and the D should be improved.

getoffmyface says:
07/16/11 04:32PM
Do i sense sarcasm?? haha, I do follow FCS.  Lines have become available the last couple seasons which is great, Phil Steeles FCS preview is on its way.  W+M has been very good, played UNC close last season, i expect the public to see that and the line will be relatively small.  I also expect a much improved UVA team
Greedybastard says:
07/16/11 07:13PM
Colorado State minus whatever. Love this match up for CSU
SteveWellmer says:
07/16/11 07:23PM

these look good:

Purdue -14.5 (MTSt)

Ball State +17.5 (IU)

USC -21 (Minny)

SouthWestPlayer says:
07/16/11 08:09PM
Oklahoma -21 playing Tulsa
cherokee10 says:
07/16/11 09:48PM

QB play should be better for CSU, and New Mex is prbly in the bottom 5 this year.....anything under 7 would be too tempting.

SatNightFever05 says:
07/17/11 11:48AM


I know they lost Aldon Smith, but still 7 starters returning, including most in the front 7.. 6th in the country in scoring D.. their Rush D was mediocre, but playing in the B12 and having the 37th best Pass D says something..



LonghornHoosier says:
07/18/11 10:49PM

thank's for the takes...

i play only 2 to 3 games per week...

week 1 is tough for us and the cappers, there are so many unknowns...

since i started this thread, let me justify my picks...

mississippi st...playing away from starkville concerns me a bit as well as the loss of diaz and the stud lb's, but i think is a bit under the radar (to the masses) mismatch...miss st has a returning qb with some upside, they have their top 4 RB's returning which accounted for 2600 yards last season in the tough SEC.  they have a solid front 4 and a good aggressive secondary...i heard that last year Miss st was up 49-7 early in the 4th and called off the dogs, (pardon the pun).   Memphis has no QB with a snap on the roster.    there is a kid on covers who is a student at MSU.  though he sounds like a tout and a true fan, he seems to convey a team with a lot of confidence, who wants to make a statement on O in the first week.  A lot of pundits are busting Miss St's balls about being competitive, but not being able to take the next step.    I think Mullin wants to make a statement in week 1 by thrashing an overmatched team in week in on the road...

Pitt - Graham is bringing his point a minute I strategy to Pitt.  he brought Todd Dodge (former UT QB and North Texas coach) to work with QB Tino Suseri, Pitt has a good OL, descent backs, and a solid D inherrited from wannstash...Buffalo had the 120 ranked O last year.  Though their D was somewhat competitive, they only return 3 starters on D.   I think Graham will want to make a statement.   Buffalo is not really a rival to Pitt, but geographacially it is relatively close to Pittsburgh.  Therefore, recruiting and regional domainance (see OU v. Tulsa) may play into factor in this game.

recent games

2009 Pitt -10 over Buffalo - final Pitt 54 Buffalo 27

Missouri - has virtually coming back not named Gabbert.   Miami of Ohio has a new coach Don Treadwell who came from Mich St.  M of O was a great story last year.  They were 2-10 in 2008, 1-11 in 2009 (Haywoods first year) and 10-4 last year.  That is an amazing turnaround.   They do have 8 returning starters on O and 9 on D.    Mizzou won last year's game  51-13.  Franklin does not have to worry about Blaine Gabbert's little brother for comp, since he transferred to Louisville during the spring...Missouri is solid in almost every position.    In addition, Pinkel has recently earned his stripes.   I have heard that the goal at Mizzou is to finally take Mizzou to National prominance.   Pundits are saying that this is Pinkel's best team during his tenure at Mizzou.  Pinkel has been at Mizzou for 11 years.  This team beat OU last year.  Mizzou has 9 returning starters on O and 6 on D.   Mizzou's D line and LB's are stout.  I just don't see how Miami of Ohio is going to keep up with Mizzou.  They most certainly will not run on Mizzou and will be foreced to pass. Though M of O has 2 good QB's, I see Mizzou being able to contain the deep threat though applying pressure.  Mizzou lost 3 starters in teh secondary, but still have some solid experience back there.

I also like Oklahoma over Tulsa -20.

I want to believe my beloved Longhorns with a reinvigorated Mack Brown, with ambitious Diaz and Harshin stepping up and showing the way, that they will open a can of whoop ass on Rice.  But, after last year, a very painful last year in both record and ATS (3-9), my advice to all of you on Texas is wait and see.   If they come out and dominate Rice early, if Gabbert or someone steps up as the indisputable #1 QB, then look out.  Texas D is going to be much much better this year.    In my opinion, Muschamp did some good things at Texas.  But, last year's lack of passion, innovation, and most importantly game time adjustments concerned me a lot.   I think Diaz brings a lot of swagger, and that will be reflected in our D.  My call on Texas v Rice, wait and see what the spread is.  If it is 28 and under, then I think it could be a good deal.  But, if you are like me and you can't pull the trigger, wait and see how the team comes out against Rice.  If they look sharp, we will be a top 10 team by the end of the season and will defeat overrated Texas A&M and Ok St by season's end.  If we look like crap, then a 6-6 to 7-5 record is teh likely full year outcome...

Good Luck to All!

Please provide your feedback on these takes...Thanks

 

Corley1011 says:
07/18/11 11:05PM
Am I the student??? haha
LonghornHoosier says:
07/18/11 11:14PM

corley - my bad bro...i thought you were...what do you think about my assessment of the Bulldogs and the game with Memphis?

[Quote: Originally Posted by Corley1011] Am I the student??? haha [/Quote

QBoption says:
07/18/11 11:50PM

Rice +50

kent st +50

Fla atl. +50

 

Corley1011 says:
07/18/11 11:50PM
Longhorn - I like your write up... the only thing I will say is do not be concerned about MSU playing away from Starkville... MSU will travel to Memphis and probably outnumber the Memphis faithful... 


I've capped this game over and over... and the bottom line is MSU should win this one running away... A year ago Memphis struggled to put up 7 against the 2nd team D... a year later and Memphis actually seems to have regressed on the offensive side of the ball... also keep in mind that MSU had to pull their starters very early last year to get ready for Auburn on a short week...
LonghornHoosier says:
07/20/11 09:22PM
thanks for the takes...any others?
QBoption says:
07/21/11 01:52PM

ok fine...

Clemson -17

ILLINI -17

Stanford -28

DoubleUp4Life says:
07/26/11 02:26PM

Like UVA to go Bowling this season ...

 

DoubleUp4Life says:
07/26/11 02:27PM
Not Posting my Top Leans for week 1
jdnmoney says:
07/26/11 09:49PM



miami is vastly improved as they showed last year, missouri starts new QB and very inexperienced secondary, if +22 id love Miami Ohio, i see this closer to -13.5
SatNightFever05 says:
07/26/11 10:11PM


Wow, you think under 2 TDs?  Be shocked if its less than 20..

Dream season for Miami, OH last year.. 6 wins by 7 points or less.. typically that evens out year after..

Missouri returns lot on both sides of the ball, (outside QB), better/bigger athletes.. Franklin should turn into a good one.. home game vs. MAC opponent- Franklin should be able to simply manage the game and Missouri could put up close 40..

Inept Florida put up 34, Cincy 45, Ohio 34 on Miami LY- so D not THAT good

Also, Miami O 113th in rush offense-  hardly think Missouri will just sit back and let Dysert pick apart Missouri secondary..
jdnmoney says:
07/26/11 10:24PM
right, and ur points are valad, but did u see miami play last year at all, they got better each and every week, after losing to Ohio.

they beat buffalo
they beat BG
they beat akron
they smashed temple
they beat NIU
they beat MTSU


also look at rushing in those last 5,
37 attempts, 156 yrds
35, 185
38, 253 vs temple D
26, 100
40, 118

they improved vastly in the rushing department over the last half of the year, and with 4 returning starters on the O Line this trend is bound to continue

all im sayin is missouri has a new QB, miami has one of the "toughtest D's in the Mac" for what thats worth,

i dont see a HUGE wk 1 spread, and if you do, over 21.5, ill take 3 scores and the HAWKS.


jdnmoney says:
07/26/11 10:26PM
dont think Miami will win, but with a bye after this first game these guys will be solely focused on Mizzou, while Mizzou then has to travel for a friday night game in the desert vs ASU....tough stretch, 2 games in 6 days,

trust me, id love a +22 spread and ill place my bet on MU
SatNightFever05 says:
07/26/11 11:08PM


I hear ya.. if its under 14, I'll be making a play on Missouri for sure.. 3 TDs, I'll probably stay away..

While they did seem to get there running game going (but really averaged under 4 yards per rush in 1/2 the games you listed), Missouri returns just about everyone in the front 7 expect for Smith..

I'm not real big on taking MAC schools, especially on the road vs. a superior athletic team, especially considering how fortunate they got in winning 6 ga,es by 7 points or less, but were also 17th in the nation in TO Margin at +11..

Again, it seldom happens that a team comes out of nowhere, has great success, wins every close game, gets a huge TO margin and has that same success, or close to it, the following year

Good point on the look ahead to Friday night game
bookieassassin says:
07/26/11 11:20PM


5Dimes

Miami Ohio at Missouri
 10007 Miami Ohio  +21 -110      
 10008 Missouri  -21 -110 


jdnmoney says:
07/27/11 12:17AM
bookieassassan: wow cannot believe that spread, gonna try to watch that one closely leading up to the season
QBoption says:
07/27/11 12:27AM

two different teams since they last met...

Mizzu- looking to run ball more and add a FB. how well does the new QB get the offense? at least he can  run. Fall practice scrimmage will say a lot.

MOH - mature team with the same OC/DC(i think), still a new HC which means new team personality.

other concerns for MOH is not being able to stay within 20 pts of any bcs team no matter the offense of the bcs team.

 since losing HC T.Hoeppner(2004) no B2B winnibg seasons this team could go 5-7 easy.

remember that kentucky game wk1 '09? questions about the QB and DEF. the spread was -15 i was on kentucky and guys in here were to scared or didnt know, guys giving me a hard for liking tucky wk1.

- one thing i dont like about this game is that Mizzu is on a short week with arz st on deck, so they cant show too much. sundevils mite put it on'em...

bookieassassin says:
07/27/11 01:22AM
this game looks like one to avoid......
Miami too much of a freak team to fool with now...
LY off 1-11 ...1st game at Florida hold Gators to something like 22 yds total offense late in the 3rd?.....Fla season low 212 TO

problem is with new coach it's tough to tell how much of the past year's stuff he retains.....off 10-4 you wouldn't think he starts from scratch......totally new systems /terminology/style could mean ass whipping here....

maybe wait to see how Miami does here and maybe look to play as dog at Minny (most likely off big win over New Mex St)....

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