LouisvilleLion's Blog

Big Brown-How Overrated is He?

By LouisvilleLion | View all Posts
Posted Monday, May 19, 2008 02:59 PM   11 comments
Winning Kentucky Derby Beyers (past 16 years)
1.Monarchos-116
2.Silver Charm-115
3.War Emblem-114
4T.Grindstone-112
4T.Go For Gin-112
6.Barbaro-111
7.Street Sense-110
8T.Funny Cide-109
8T-Big Brown-109
10T.Fusaichi Pegasus-108
10T.Charistamtic-108
10T.Thunder Gulch-108
13T.Smarty Jones-107
13T.Real Quiet-107
15.Sea Hero-105
16.Giacomo-100
 
Winning Beyers of Derby-Preakness winners in Preakness (past 16 years.)
1.Smarty Jones-118
2.Silver Charm-118
3.Funny Cide-114
4.Real Quiet-111
5.War Emblem-109
6.Charistamtic-107
7.Big Brown-100
 
If Big Brown wins the triple crown it will be because of one of the worst three year old crops ever, not because of his perceieved "greatness". Yes Big Brown finished under wraps in the Preakness, but the race was so slow, even if he was tested and ran faster late, it still would be a slow time. It is important to note that Casino Royale won with great ease as well and had a 101 Beyer in his last start. It will be fun going against beatable odds on favorite and winning in three weeks.
 
 
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BigJamie says:
05/19/08 04:11PM
I dont think the owners care about his Beyers. In 3 weeks they will have a triple crown winner,the 1st in 30 years,so his Beyer means shit.Not only that,he is being sold to be placed out for stud.So maybe he wont be high up in the rankings of all time,but again,I seriously doubt they care about that,if they did they would keep racing him :-))
darien123 says:
05/19/08 07:03PM
You are correct most of the horses he has faced can even break a 100 beyer, a real sad bunch. These pathetic horses make him look like the superman of horses wich is furthest from the truth.

 

A few of the horses you have mentioned would beat him and some of the others would give him a run for his money. The horse racing industry doesn't care and will not mention this. They want a triple crown winner so bad to prop up this dying sport. I hope some horse can muster the race of his life and beat this overated horse at the Belmont.

BigJamie says:
05/19/08 08:29PM
I thought he was over rated too,but after his last 2 races,if you still think hes over rated you know nothing about horse racing.Beyer means shit,its a speed rating that the racing form gives.You think the horse with the highest beyer wins every race?? Yea,if it was that easy we would all be rich.
LooseOnTheLead says:
05/20/08 01:20PM
Hey L'ville Lion..if  you are laughing at BB"s beyer you must not have watched the race and are simply looking at fig's. His connections knew he ran the fastest derby ever, by the real speed figure makers not Beyer, and he also knew he was 20 lenghts better than most of the field and he has the Belmont on deck....so what did you want him to do? go out and destroy the field by 20+lenghts running his eyeballs out? BB earned a respectable figure w/out even trying...i mean he didnt turn a hair the entire race and was being geared down the last 1/8...the fact he got the figure he did adds to his greatness not diminish it. i hope everyone caps the race the way you do, but i doubt it.
LouisvilleLion says:
05/23/08 06:08PM

 

There is no way he could have finished with a 115 if challenged near the end. If it was a 107, 108 maybe.

LouisvilleLion says:
05/23/08 06:24PM
He ran against a weak field. The "awesome" performance you saw was not his doing so much as the weakness of the opponents. Hawaii football was undefeated up until the Sugar Bowl. Yet it seemded clear to most they were going to loose to Georgia. My point is that the Preakness field and to some extent the Derby field was WAC caliber. If Big Brown was beating SEC caliber fields, i'd be on the bandwagon with you guys. Horses like Alydar, Sham, now they were SEC caliber to say the least.  Go ahead follow the horses from the Derby and Preakness in the future, they will not amount to much more.

 

Trying to give him credit for winning from the 20 post-i'm not buying it, there is only a minor difference in distance to the first turn between 1st post and 20th post. Why do you think they choose the 20th post over several other slots. The 20th post has is drawbacks, but the benefit is clear-with tactical speed you will avoid traffic problems. That is not true with other posts.

 

The great thing about this debate, is that there is a decent chance it will be settled in a few weeks.

ad1260 says:
05/23/08 07:20PM
Louis...so do you consider Casino Drive to be in the same class as Alydar and Sham? 
LouisvilleLion says:
05/23/08 07:57PM

 

Alydar and Sham would beat Big Brown easily. That's what i would consier. Casino Drive is an very much an open book at this point. Yea I don't see the Belmont shaping up much better than the past two legs, but people have gotten carried away with Big Brown and if Casino Drive is a solid horse, and by a solid horse meaning a level that Big Brown has yet to see, then yes i see Casino Drive with a great chance of beating Big Brown.

Maybe i set the sights to high with Alydar and Sham. Certainly you would be willing to acknowledge a number of other leagues in between the SEC and WAC. Take last year for example. Street Sense, Curlin, Rags to Riches, Tiago, Hard Spun all much better than than this year's 2nd best three year old. And in the Triple Crown legs they beat up on each other. Another way to put it, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer were two of the greatest horses of off all time(both better than Big Brown),it was impossible for them to win the Triple Crown of course. 

LooseOnTheLead says:
05/24/08 09:57AM
so i guess what youre saying is if you saw Tiger Woods play the first 4 or 5 times at Stanford and he won each tourny easily in course record fashion you couldnt see his greatness because he defeated weak opponents.
BigJamie says:
05/24/08 10:19AM
They can talk about his beyer all day long,doesnt mean a thing.His beyer can be 80,who cares,hes going to win the triple crown no matter what his beyer is.People put so much emphasis on beyer rating,its a number that the daily racing form uses to help people handicap a race.Most of the time the horse with the best prior beyer rating doesnt even win.

All of this only goes to prove, that you can't and don't always win races with paper and

pencil. There are other factors involved with 'picking winners' and those that play strictly by the

numbers are doomed to everlasting frustration.

LouisvilleLion says:
05/24/08 03:42PM

 

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User: LouisvilleLion
Joined: January 2008
Location: Kentucky
Team: Louisville Cardinals
Occupation: Degenerate

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