Posted Monday, December 02, 2013 12:49 PM
Back from Vegas and the MEGALOCKS staff and affiliates had some nice tickee tickee and won some cashola in the golf tournamentThe seats in the Bellagio Race and Sports Book were quite worn out by the time we left.
29-17 so far this yr (63%). One of our better years and not a ton of plays but analyzed everything hard core every week and let the jooocy ones bubble to the top. Next yr could suck but we feel our new and improved process will keep us on track.
Plan to analyze all the games this wk. As per usual - always include thoughts so you can follow or fade as you wish. Lines look pretty tight but hope to find 1-2 good ones. And probably 2-5 small plays for degen action
Louisville -3.5 Cincy
Should be a great one. We have the fair line at pick em or Louisville -1 at the most so a bit of perceived value on Cincy....Both teams very similar in our view - efficient offenses - very good Ds - L is #2 and Cincy #8....however cincy seems to be clicking on offense better right now and overall have been a better ATS play this yr - covering 4L5 while L has failed to cover 6L7....Also cincy has won the last 5 str vs L....cincy has outgained their last 2 opp on the road 619-357 and 573-278 while QB Kay has thrown for 6 td 2 int and almost 800Y....Meanwhile Teddy L3G at QB for L has 220 1-0 203 0-0 and 288 1-1 L3G....Cincy has done a mildly bit better against some common opponents - Rutgers Houston Memphis with all 3 being on the road while L played t... [More]
Posted Monday, November 18, 2013 02:39 PM
What a week of fantastic finishes. Most exciting week of the year potentially. Auburn game. Michigan game ending. UCF game ending. Baylor fireworks. Ended with a fun USC/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER....A Saturday that always makes us remember why NCAA football is the best.
Sadly - the picks were 0-2 Here is a different take on the Auburn game from a guy who had Georgia. WHATEVER. I mean I lost a good chunk on that last play but I will ALWAYS remember that play and how incredible it was. The cash will come back. That was a fantastic play and why I NEVER shut the game off until the clock is 0:00. Auburn was the better team and to me over the course of the game. But it could have gone either way. Now we are not one of the Covers guys that says "oh we bought off our Georgia pick and took Auburn!!! sorry losers !" or "we got Georgia +5.5 on Sunday !! 109 units !!" We lost. And Hawaii over? Well sadly we recorded the game and watched it. NO WAY that game was going over so it was a bad pick. Yes - a Hawaii TD in OT would have made over 58 a winner - but there was essentially no red zone play until OT - a couple of broken play TDs - but any number over 55 was too much IMO. Lesson learned. Its always ok to admit when you SUCK. Last wk was not good and the leans were garbage as well. Its ok - just one week and we absolutely bet smart and didn't chase so now we move on to week 13. 28-17 YTD which is good for us.
OFF TO VEGAS this FRIDAY for ... [More]
Posted Monday, November 11, 2013 03:57 PM
2-0 last wk overall total up to 28-15 on the yr hope to finish strong. Scary looking card - it looks like there are 6-7 huge "value" plays but last time we saw that we got buried but gonna continue to take our best plays and see what the hell happens.
hope you guys are enjoying the season - setting up to be an epic final month or so before bowl season....We don't think Bama gets enough credit for week in and week out no matter who they play just taking care of business. One of the most underrated 2-3 yr runs in our opinion but don't wanna turn this into a soap opera thread just think they are awesome (no homo).
As we said about a month ago - there is a very deep roster of very talented cappers on here Sadly - still a lot of misleading BS that makes us want to puke at times but over our decade here - we have noticed that the Covers Nation always smokes it out eventually.
Random thoughts on games for your reading pleasure or pain - and hopefully you can help smoke out some wins for us
BG 10 Ohio (49)we have the line at 7....Sag at 8.5ish....line makes sense given ohio got blown out in a fix that would make W Kentucky and Hawaii blush.....Super strong under trends for both teams at play but line seems about right would get interested in the 50s....A bit of perceived value in BG but not gonna back Ohio given their D is much worse and they do not take care of the ball - 81 in t/o margin and BG #26...BG #2 in RZ D as well.....c... [More]
Posted Monday, November 04, 2013 05:59 PM
Hope everyone is doing well. Back safe from trip to Chicago. Last 4 meals - still trying to digest........Deep dish pizza....old school Italian...Steakhouse....authentic Cajun..........3-0 in the picks last wk...26-15 for the yr. Let's get some analysis going - as usual will try and post thoughts on as many games as possible....goal is to give you info to make your own decisions - a couple of picks to tail if you feel lucky
MACtion Tuesday "Where the mafia is in the huddle on every play"
BG 23.5 Miami Oh (46)Miami gonna start a new qb this wk with Boucher toast...Something named Kummer may get the start - no relation to the pizza boy in Lunch Wagon Women....we have the fair line closer to 17 - Sag at 23ish.....statistically M is bad 122O and 112D...having a lot of trouble scoring...They do take care of the ball and not many penalties...thats all we can say....also 9-4L13 ATS in the series....BG looks pretty good again this yr but the D not the brick wall of last yr...almost beat Miss St - lost by 1 which is a good effort....No glaring weakness but not sure their O is strong enough to just streamroll someone with no resistance....Wildcard is the new QB for Miami - NEVER underestimate what this can do for a team - look at S Flo vs houston - once Temple got the new QB going....obviously wont win but we can see a 17-30 pt game heading to 4Q...give BG at slightly more than 50-50 shot to cover - actually leaning slightly to dog - lo... [More]
Posted Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:10 AM
On way back from Chicago. Love this place.
0-2 key plays last wk. 23-13 YTD. Leans 3-1 last wk.
As usual will post thoughts on as many games as possible. GL
Play 1. ULM +3.5
ULM got vet QB Browning back last wk and he was 21-30 4 TD and no picks. 11-53 rushing. They have won 2 str and can still win the conference. They are 9-3L12 away and 6-2L8 ats vs Troy. Their pass eff D ranked 27 matches up well vs Troy. Troy D is brutal. They are 1-6-2L9 conf ats. ULL on deck. Statistically both teams turn it over a ton but with Browning back this will change. ULM better in return game and on 4d D. Team peaking at right time.
Posted Monday, October 21, 2013 07:43 PM
Let's get the ball rolling. 23-13 ytd after a 2-3 wk last wk....Happy with UCF but made a comical play on the Houston game ......played the under and it was over in the 2Q ! Epic call by MEGALOCKS Inc. First Crack Pipe Special loss of the year as it took a QB RUNNING for 300 yards to frontdoor cover us - it happens - especially when things are not going great. For all the complaining about Covers Nation - no BS in my threads all year - and thanks to everyone for that. There was one comment on the Houston game last wk but that was a good natured comment on not believing what was going on. Keep the discussion going - that's the goal here - try and give people an objective take on as many games as we can get through.
Off to Chicago on Friday am - hope to get through as much as we can by Thursday afternoon. Let's get some paper.
ULL 2.5 Ark St (66)did quite a bit of digging dont see an edge....Sag has fair line at 5ish we have it at 1ish...ULL on a roll and beat WK with the help of point shaving and were outgained....They are on a 21-8 ATS run away but lost last 2 to Ark St...Won 4 str after losses to Ark and Kan St....decent offense, better defense than Ark St...#4 in to margin - good on 3rd D off...have done an ok job vs vegas so far...Ark st has played mizz aub memphis - very balanced offense and lots of speed....D a bit dicey and take a lot of penalties...on a 0-4-1 run ATS and have burned a lot of cash this yr....bi... [More]
Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 09:49 AM
21-10 ytd including last wk 0-2 record - not posted here - but released on Twitter to the chagrin of subscribers everywhere .....Yes the Tulane under was a tough one to lose when it was 19-9 late and 24 OT later its over - but - when you bet NCAA unders you understand that can happen.
As per usual - will post the odd pick - but the value of this thread is good discussion and thoughts on the games - particularly off the radar games that we can all use some insight on.
Best of luck this wk freakshows
WK 4.5 ULL (62.5)Seems to us a pretty even matchup. We have it at at pick em on a neutral site. So does Sagarin. So the fair line probably 3.5 or so. WK has performed a bit better vs Vegas line - but ULL has only played one game since Sept 21 - 2 bye weeks - by the way not BUY weeks as we read this wk ...Both teams have played comparable schedules according to Sagarin - ULL pedigree shows they can win on the road in conf play - WK has a "blackout" planned tonight and are also well coached...hmmm....?? ULL 20-8 ATS run away but WK 21-7 ATS run overall...?......Most signficant edge we see for ULL is the turnover margin edge - ULL #13 and WK #118...yes they turned the ball over 5 times on 6 plays vs Tennessee in another great MEGALOCKS winner ....but to us - if it walks like a duck - and quacks like a duck - its a duck....Have to believe ULL more likely to win turnover battle.....WK looks to have edge in special teams... [More]
Posted Monday, September 30, 2013 04:43 PM
Freaks wk 1 7-2wk 2 1-2wk 3 4-0wk 4 4-1wk 5 3-1ytd 19-6
Good run so far but means nothing as the conference games kick in and a lot of teams that have not looked very good will find their second wind. Other teams will change form + and - and make you shake your head. Let's try and stay on top of this boys
As always..will be posting random thoughts on the games as they are looked at with the hope of getting feedback on where we have it right or wrong - especially wrong - always good to know what you might be missing.
texas 8.5 iowa stwe have the fair line at 6 so a bit of perceived value in iowa st - the problem with this game is that the variance in what we can expect from texas - low to high - is so wide that to put a "fair" line on this is really tough...We do know tex has okla on deck but are 3-2L5 yrs in that situation....they are off a bye...Ash is still questionable at QB....Their D has had moments of complete ineptitude...turnover margin ranked 13th...iowa st has a nice dual threat qb...statistically pretty avg on offense and d and hung with a decent iowa team...12th in t/o margin...only played 3 games...slight lean to iowa st....will include in ML wheel options but will need 10+ to add to the card full unit plays prob wont happen....wait for now
Posted Tuesday, July 30, 2013 10:45 AM
Got a great head start on the research this yr. Gonna play one now since it is probably gonna go higher. We normally play dogs so wait on those.
HOT CARL SPECIAL
MEGALOCKS intrepid staff member HOT CARL has found an early play to jump on.
Don't like playing games this early - but our view is that there is no real bad news that can smoke this play. Why? Well last yr Maryland used FIVE (5) QBs and had to use a FRESHMAN LINEBACKER at QB for a bunch of games....They have tons of experience coming back at QB including top guy CJ Brown....RB Wes Brown may or may not get back - dealing with legal issues - but they have decent backups. Line should be better. They are LOADED at WR. D was solid last yr and brings back 5 starters. So - even the odd injury or suspension before the season starts wont implode this team IMO since they have a ton of guys back who have experience and are a team more than a one man show at all positions. Lookahead? Dont think so - have Old Dominion on deck. If anything - FIU will have a lookahead - have in-state game with UCF next wk.
FIU is gonna stink something fierce. only 3 RS now back on offense and 4 on D. Top rusher Rhodes and 2nd leading returning receiver has been booted. Team just got a lot of bad press for turning a public beach into a nudist camp ....New P and PK....Have the least experienced OL returning in FBS...They regressed last yr when they really had no reason to....New HC Tu... [More]
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 09:51 AM
Finished the final teams INITIAL ratings. Now have to review feedback from you guys and smell check the NCAA wide ratings to make sure the master list makes sense. Then it's tweaking until gameday accounting for injuries and people getting arrested for beating women in bars and stealing iPads with their team jersey on.
How to manual is in the SEC thread. Comments welcome.
UConn 78 (121 home with cheater refs)
Memphis 73 $$$$ ATS jabbawockee
Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 04:38 PM
More ratings to ponder. Ratings across different conferences will be double checked when done first set for all teams. Ratings within the conferences look ok so far.
How-to manual on ratings in SEC thread.
A lot of ATS $ in here.
Marshall 82 sick qb and offense no d
Tulsa 82 solid reload D
Rice 80 Spicy$$$
MTSU 79 $
LT 76 drop off big reload
SMiss 69 could surprise not an 0-12 team
UTEP 69 ?
N Texas 69 $$$ weasel
Tulane 67 $
UTSA 66 $
FAU 65 yuck
FIU 62 feces. Wtf happened
$ denotes a team we will be watching when big underdogs
Posted Tuesday, July 23, 2013 09:57 PM
Initial take on MWC and Sun Belt. Had to do some filth teams to mix it up. Pls see SEC thread for info on how we use the ratings.
ULM 82 love that qb team on mission
WK 79 give Petrino a month to bone another skank
Ark St 75 lose all world qb
Troy 72 D beyond wretched
S alabama 65 potential weasel
Tex St 63 wtf they beat Houston. Well coached
Georgia St 54 yuck
Fresno 86. Like em
Utah St 83
SJ st 80
SD st 78
New Mexico 70 spicy $$
Unlv 69. ATS jabbawockee
Col st 66
Will need to check numbers across conferences when done. Numbers within conferences seem tighter so far.
Posted Tuesday, July 23, 2013 09:53 AM
Next time we will put 2+ conferences in a thread so as to not keep making a mess of the forum.
Pls see SEC thread for info on how ratings are used.
Arizona St 95 on paper look gooooooood
Oregon St 92 really like them
Huskies 89 ditto
Arizona 87 unstoppable must respect
Overall very pumped about potential in this conference.
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 12:04 PM
Feedback Pls on first draft of SEC ratings. How much should not would a team be favored by on a neutral site. Also - I give HF adv a unique rating every game so don't make HF assumptions. For example Kentucky would get 0 HF adv vs Bama.
An example of finding theoretical value would be if LSU and Florida played wk 1 neutral site I think it should be a pick em. I would take either team all things being equal at +3/3.5.
Tex AM 96
Ole Miss 92
Miss St 87
Just something to chew on will adjust as we get closer and do more research.