MEGALOCKS's Blog

Posted 12 hours, 29 minutes ago

NCAA wk 9

Freaks  Sickos  Whack-jobs  Dedicated subscribers
Bad picks last wk . Take the praise - have to get in here and take the beatings like a man.  Still very happy with the results this yr but last wk was our 2nd losing weekly effort and worst showing of the season so far. Thanks very much for all the kind words in the wk 8 thread after we were battered and bruised. We would not do this if it were not fun - and you bunch of crazed lunatics make it worth the effort. Let's get going to week 9. Starting it early as the Betonline lines are coming out.  We are not gonna jump in too soon - but just in case something tasty pops up.............

As always - rules of engagement1. Goal of the thread is for us to present the findings of our WORLDWIDE RESEARCH STAFF and let you guys take the information and use it for your own decision making on bets. Sorry it gets cluttered but we love the banter and intel.2. We will note our official picks in "bold". For example - ALERT subscribers will note that the bold picks last wk went a very impressive 0-3 . Strong leans (plays we really want to make and might have small degenerate cash on - but cannot fully recommend and are not official plays) and leans (action for people with serious issues - hopefully still hit 54-55%) will be noted.

Special thanks for those who chimed in last wk with recommended plays and local intel - You will note that this thread has been a gold ... [More]

Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 05:12 PM

NCAA week 8

Freaks  Sickos  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking-Guy  Covers Bloodbath Guy 

Hey everyone  Thanks as always for the comments in our threads .....Last wk 2-1 very happy with the Texas and C Michigan picks....Clemson stud QB got hurt very early - that probably hurt us - but more so if you had the over....Having said that in-game injuries even out over the season and we can tell you we have gotten a break or two for sure so you just cannot be a WHINY CHICK  have to suck it up and give the props to anyone on Louisville  their D held up nicely on the move up in class. 6/7 winning weeks well over 60% on the yr but like we say - you are never immune from getting SPANKED like a red-headed stepchild so play safe guys - lots of football left - don't wager too much on any one game. 
Reminder - MEGALOCKS rules of engagement for this thread - it is not for those who just want a list of picks - you can get those in a bunch of other excellent threads - as always lots of guys on fire this year. 
- we try and go through the games in order (use Covers scores and matchups page) after nailing any early TASTERS  on Sunday....This Sunday we were on family holiday time so did not release any early TASTERS  this wk
- we give you our analysis so you can make your own calls on how or if you want to attack the game.....IF we make a selection we will bold it and call attention to it as such
lo... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 05, 2014 08:39 PM

NCAA wk 7

Freaks  Sickos  Hindsight Guy 
Hey everyone .....What a crazy week of games ! Very entertaining. Looking forward to some more banter with you guys this wk. 4-1 last wk. 5/6 winning wks. On to week 7.
Last wk we started early - dug deep - and found a five alarm BAG OF POO with USC .....Gonna take one early play this wk as well 
SUNDAY MEGALOCKS EARLY TASTER 
First play
Central Michigan +10.5 (Betonline)
We like this one quite a bit.....Remember not playing ML - playing the idea of a closer game than people think.......NIU has won 28 straight home games by our count - 24 straight MAC home games if our stats are correct - however the vast majority of those were with all-timer J Lynch at QB.
The case ...fade away or follow
1) NIU using multiple QB and one seems to be the passer - and one seems to be the runner - in either event - this seems to be working on and off with no real success or continuity.2) NIU been very sloppy this yr compared to year's past - a lot of that has to do with the QBs and the OL needs to gel3) NIU has played 10 straight bad quarters - outscored 29-27 vs UNLV...blown out by Arkansas - expected - then hung on to beat Kent St by 3 points as 26 point favs almost blew it vs a collection of backup Kent QBs in the 4Q.4) Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy should note NIU 8-9 L17 as home fav and that was essentially with Lynch all those games5) Chips star RB Rawls is BACK; So is stud WR Dav... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 28, 2014 07:56 PM

NCAA wk 6

Freaks  Sickos  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy 

Week 6 already ....Crazy. 6-3 last wk. 4/5 winning weeks let's try to keep it going. Lines getting tighter and it is only gonna get more challenging.

GL guys thanks for all the banter 


First pick for MEGALOCKS SUNDAY LOSERS CLUB

USC -10  (B-Online)

(write-up coming)

GL mega


Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 04:20 PM

NCAA wk 5

Freaks  Degenerates  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy 
Hello again everyone.  Back from a fun road trip to Michigan - Escaped just before the hurricane / tornado / raining frogs combo at the end of the 3Q. Definitely disappointed in how Michigan played as someone who likes to see them win - but at least we cashed on Utah. .....Too bad overall it was the first losing wk of the season - almost got to .500....went to bed looked like Cal/Arizona was a stone cold under 454523985728394572304572 unit lock and then 50+ points happened in the 4Q .....Funny stuff - it happens. The only defense we have discovered to defeat the odd crazy happening betting NCAA football is playing a small % of the overall bankroll on any one game. It always sucks to lose - but college football puts the W in WACKY. MEGALOCKS under in a PAC 12 game involving Arizona .......Congrats to all that had the over on that game you probably thought you were toast - and got the money - good job. On to week 5.
First play
Fresno -5.5
When MEGALOCKS release a favorite - you either play along and pray - or fade our pathetic azzes and go huge on New Mex....We like the fact that Fresno has played a brutal schedule and are no doubt much better than that 1-3 record - at USC....at Utah...H to Nebraska - does not get much tougher than that for 3 games to start the season.....sched ranked #13....New Mex ranked #126....and even with the much tougher schedule - yes Fresn... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2014 03:32 PM

NCAA wk 4

Freaks   Degenerates   Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy  

Already week 4    It goes too fast. Gotta enjoy it. 

5-2-1 last wk. 3/3 winning weeks. But it was about this time last yr when we couldn't hit the ground falling out of a plane. 

As always will share thoughts on as many games as possible. Will not get to any detailed writeups until tomorrow. May try and grab a couple early lines today and share thoughts with the wackos like us checking out the Sunday openers. 

GL guys !!! Mega. 


Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 05:16 PM

NCAA wk 3

Freaks  Hindsight Guy   Sickos

Week 3 already. Wow. 5-3 last wk. Hope to find some good ones for this weekend. Best of luck to all. Writeups to follow as usual. 

First play


Indiana +3. (betonline)


gL.  Mega. 


Posted Tuesday, September 02, 2014 02:27 PM

NCAA wk 2

Freaks  Whack-jobs  "They are Gonna Kill Em" Guy  "Crowd Will be Rocking" Guy   "Public Gonna Get Killed" Guy 
Was great to get the season started 
4-3 last wk. Disappointed to leave off Ga Southern and La Tech from the card.....Glad left off Marshaa Marshaa Marshaa and LSU under so I guess it worked out. Wk 2 and Wk 3 are usually the toughest for us because you tend to think you know more than you really do - So hard to not overreact 
As per usual - will jot down thoughts on as many games as possible - Take the info for what it is and make your own calls. 
Had to mention ....vs BYU....The UConn refs did what they could (15 penalties for BYU/150 yards - several more were declined......Pass bounces 14 times - ruled a UConn catch....etc....) but BYU still prevailed and covered....More importantly - the UNDER prevailed  even with BYU running hurry up offense up 18 pts with 4 min left . Those UConn home games always take a yr off your life but they are the best. 

On to this wk.....
Arizona 7 UTSA (54)This is a tough one for us....early in the yr - we have some big variances between our "fair point spread" and the vegas line - mostly b/c it is so tough to really know how good teams are this early in the season....We have this line closer to 3 points so normally would be an automatic bet....but.........Az put up almost 800Y offense vs stinky UNLV and their freshman qb looked great.... [More]

Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 10:57 AM

NCAA wk 1

Freaks.  Sickos   Losers 

We are back for another season of NCAA football. Great to see so many brilliant-yet-prickly old-time greats in here as well as some fresh meat. Let's make some paper ...have some laughs......share some knowledge.......and not kill each other in the process.

Covers Nation  (no-)

As per usual - we will post our thoughts on as many games as possible. You will always see the thought process so that you can agree and play along - or fade our pathetic azz away . Always room for opposing viewpoints as long as we all stay civil. 

We keep it simple. We don't make up lines. We don't make up 7 figure bet amounts . We understand we will lose some bets.... but hopefully we end up having another great year.

Posting a bit later this year as last offseason was just too much - 4 months of arguing the Alabama/VT game. Fights ensued. Blood was spilled. Teeth were kicked in. And nobody was the better for it.

On to week 1. It's go time.  MEGA


Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2014 12:50 PM

Bridgejumper at PARX

Race 1 today.

Imagine you had $40,000 on the #5 to show. In fact $42,498/$46,077 of the show pool was bet on the #5. 92% to show. It's a LOCCCCKKKKK right ?  All he has to do is finish top 3 at odds of 1/2 and you collect 10 cents profit on every $2. Risking $40,000 to win $2,000 on PARX donkeys.

Well he wins. Whew. Too easy.

But wait.

Inquiry. 

He is DQ'd for interference coming out of the gate. 

Ooops. There goes $40K. 

Payouts. 3/1 winner. 7/2 2nd horse. 17-1 3rd horse.

8.20 3.80 16.60 
        3.60 22.20 
               61.80 

This happens quite often. Always find it amusing that anyone would be dumb enough to put huge cash on a big fav to show. You miss once - You are jumping off a bridge - either voluntarily - or with the "assistance" of Bullet Tooth Tony and Frankie Four Fingers who know you can't pay back the $40,000 you borrowed for a LOCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK.




Posted Friday, April 11, 2014 08:55 PM

Triple Dead Heat

Funny!!

First triple dead heat in Evangeline history.

Had a piece of it. 8-1 shot to win ends up paying $6.60. 

Mega



Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 12:40 PM

Keeneland April 10

Freaks  Whackjobs  Losers who watch poker on TV

When we last joined you - it was an embarrassment of riches but in the couple of days that we didn't post after that it was  So who knows about today ? Probably  but we will go down fighting. As a sidenote - after playing the ponies for over a quarter of a century we had something happen yesterday that was new - having a tri with a horse keyed for 3rd and cashing when he came 4th. Finished 1-1A-9-8 but because 1 and 1A finished first and second as an entry - the payout was 1-9-8. We are not idiots but if we had a paper ticket may have thrown it out. Message to all the young Sparkies out there - Never throw out a tickee tickee....and sometimes it is WAY better to be lucky than good.  Will hope to find some winners today in between driving the 4 Ferraris around today.

GL to all today  MEGA



Posted Saturday, March 29, 2014 12:14 PM

Florida Derby

Freaks, lurkers, psychos 
Let's take a look at the race. Mikey has already posted a great analysis so some of this will be repetitive. A psycho has been banned. Someone who posted an "I told you so" remark even after agreeing with them in the Sunland Derby is in the tank. So we have potential for some grown-up discussion today. 
#1 Wildcat RedIf anyone has a chance - watch that FOY replay - it is our fav race of the yr ! A head to head slug it out duel that had both Wildcat Red and General A Rod leading at multiple times in the race with WR finally digging in and getting the victory....Not usually a good idea to take a horse in a big race after improving 3 straight times....coming off a taxing effort....and likely to face more heat today....Not sure he is gonna like the distance either....Skeptical but have to list as a contender....Lots of guts
#2 Matador.....Might catch a piece of the bottom of tri/super....6 starts and only one win and a 3rd so far in the boxscore - did not hit the top 3 in either dirt race....Was stupid far back in TB Derby and had no chance to catch winner who aired wire to wire....Skeptical but not impossible to hit 3rd or 4th...Prefer others tho
#3 Cairo Prince....Saez was basically driving a car in the Holy Bull....Tracked outside did not see rail - Drew up beside leaders then exploded home - Working like a champ...Theoretically could get the perfect setup in this one just off the pace....Most likely winner and a likely fav - may... [More]

Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 01:56 PM

Oaklawn - Rebel Day

Freaks  Sup?

Race 1
A couple of horses in here off really long layoffs. Not too many mid pack horses that can pounce - undecided between 3,7....like the works on 3 but at 8/5 right now - gonna play 7 at 5-1ish WP.

Race 2
2 and 5 gonna battle early - Rosario closer to the rail with the 2 and has better F1 speed but think if the 5 clears 2 will puke. Like the 10 as a weasel - reclaim, hot jock, turnback, good works. 10 WP and box with 2 and 5.

Race 3
Interesting mix of FTS and horses that never win. Gonna take a stab with layoff horse with great works and drop from MSW to MCL. #4 WP. Small bet on #11 as bomb if 10-1+.

Race 4
Lots of cheap speed in here 1,3,7,11...Going with 10 WP off pace nice JT combo and great works. ex bx with 9 and the 12.

Race 5
Wide open. Gonna play small WP on 3 and box with logical fav 1. 3 drops should be well spotted...2/4 at OP and 2/5 at distance.

Race 6
Nice race. Love the 2 and 4. 7 gonna be taking some money but off a while and works look great but some salty guys in there.....Gonna go off menu. Key entry 1,1A for 3rd in the tri with 2,4,7 mixed and matched up top. 2-all-1 all-2-all 4-all-1 all-8-1.

more to come....MEGA  GL today to all players





Posted Friday, January 03, 2014 06:08 PM

Orange Bowl

freaks

Hope everyone's new yr off to a great start

Some wild bowl games starting jan 1 - definitely made this bowl season well worth it....Bittersweet tonight - only 3rd time in about 10 yrs wont be at the game.....Great matchup too.

struggling around the .500 mark for the bowls.....tread lightly


ohio st -2.5

Plenty of good analysis on the game out there.....We are not fading Clemson per say - just going with the Buckeyes....Better HC.>>>Lost one game in 2 yrs and Urban Legend is great in bowl games think he has only lost 1......Now the argument can be made about who played who - but statistically - ohio st runs the ball better and stops the run better - will have a big rushing edge tonight IMO and Miller makes more plays with his feet tonight to drive them nuts.

GL to all - MEGA


Posted Wednesday, January 01, 2014 09:13 AM

Jan 1 Bowls

Freaks 
Once again - HAPPY NEW YR - and best wishes from our seriously disturbed staff to you and yours
Still trying to claw our way over .500. 1-2 yesterday......should have 3-4 picks today. 

UNLV Team Total under 23.5
North Texas has given up 7 13 14 16 7 21 10 last 7 games ....D ranked 26....run D 19....Scoring D 8.....Red Zone D #1 in NCAA allowing TDs less than half the time in red zone....Also think they can win time of possession big time in this one - UNLV run D ranked 109 giving up over 5/carry. Think UNLV finds it tough sledding here.....Statistically they have faced only 2 top 50 Ds....NT is the 2nd best they have faced. 

Wisconsin -2
The last game loss to Penn St gives us value IMO....Before that only losses - close one at Az St in fix of the decade - and 7 another close one to Ohio St.....Funny thing - did not come to play mentally in penn st game but still had 27-13 FD edge.....Before that game had given up only 1 play the entire yr over 51 yds....8th ranked rushing team with a bunch of beasts and great OL....D is 5 in RZ 5 vs Run 6 in pass eff D 3 in RZ D and 6 overall....Off 3 Rose Bowl losses think that this breath of fresh air will be great for Badgers.....SC no slouch - just gonna go with running team and better D although no doubt you could say SC D might be better on paper...SC lost 3 str BG before winning last 2.....They have struggled against good Ds this yr - crap for 3Q vs Mizz....scored less than 20 vs Fl... [More]

Posted Friday, December 27, 2013 10:57 AM

Bowls Dec 27 - Dec 31

Freaks

So far not horrible. 

Plays
- buff TT over (L)
- Utah St under (W)

Small cash degen action bets
- EC TT over (L)
- Fresno TT under (W)
- Col St TT over (W)
- Pitt over (W)
- Oregon St (W)

Decent reads on some games - bad on others. Let's try and do better this wk

play coming....mega





Posted Friday, December 20, 2013 01:51 PM

Bowls Dec 21 - Dec 26

Freaks 
First of all - Best wishes for the holiday season to all forum sickos - regardless of how you / if you celebrate it  Been a lot of fun this yr. Hoping the bowl season treats us to some good ones.

Instead of a different thread for each bowl game - or one huge ridiculous thread for all games - gonna try it this way. Say 6-10 games at a time. Hopefully easier for people to navigate.

GL to all  mega



Posted Monday, December 02, 2013 12:49 PM

NCAA wk 14

freaks 
Back from Vegas and the MEGALOCKS staff and affiliates had some nice tickee tickee and won some cashola in the golf tournamentThe seats in the Bellagio Race and Sports Book were quite worn out by the time we left.
29-17 so far this yr (63%). One of our better years and not a ton of plays but analyzed everything hard core every week and let the jooocy ones bubble to the top.  Next yr could suck but we feel our new and improved process will keep us on track.
Plan to analyze all the games this wk. As per usual - always include thoughts so you can follow or fade as you wish. Lines look pretty tight but hope to find 1-2 good ones. And probably 2-5 small plays for degen action
Louisville -3.5 Cincy
Should be a great one. We have the fair line at pick em or Louisville -1 at the most so a bit of perceived value on Cincy....Both teams very similar in our view - efficient offenses - very good Ds - L is #2 and Cincy #8....however cincy seems to be clicking on offense better right now and overall have been a better ATS play this yr - covering 4L5 while L has failed to cover 6L7....Also cincy has won the last 5 str vs L....cincy has outgained their last 2 opp on the road 619-357 and 573-278 while QB Kay has thrown for 6 td 2 int and almost 800Y....Meanwhile Teddy L3G at QB for L has 220 1-0 203 0-0 and 288 1-1 L3G....Cincy has done a mildly bit better against some common opponents - Rutgers Houston Memphis with all 3 being on the road while L played t... [More]

Posted Monday, November 18, 2013 02:39 PM

NCAA wk 13

Freaks

What a week of fantastic finishes. Most exciting week of the year potentially. Auburn game. Michigan game ending. UCF game ending. Baylor fireworks. Ended with a fun USC/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER....A Saturday that always makes us remember why NCAA football is the best.

Sadly - the picks were 0-2  Here is a different take on the Auburn game from a guy who had Georgia. WHATEVER. I mean I lost a good chunk on that last play but I will ALWAYS remember that play and how incredible it was. The cash will come back. That was a fantastic play and why I NEVER shut the game off until the clock is 0:00. Auburn was the better team and to me over the course of the game. But it could have gone either way. Now we are not one of the Covers guys that says "oh we bought off our Georgia pick and took Auburn!!! sorry losers !" or "we got Georgia +5.5 on Sunday !! 109 units !!" We lost. And Hawaii over? Well sadly we recorded the game and watched it. NO WAY that game was going over so it was a bad pick. Yes - a Hawaii TD in OT would have made over 58 a winner - but there was essentially no red zone play until OT - a couple of broken play TDs - but any number over 55 was too much IMO. Lesson learned.   Its always ok to admit when you SUCK. Last wk was not good and the leans were garbage as well. Its ok - just one week and we absolutely bet smart and didn't chase so now we move on to week 13. 28-17 YTD which is good for us.

OFF TO VEGAS this FRIDAY for ... [More]

Posted Monday, November 11, 2013 03:57 PM

NCAA wk 12

freaks 
2-0 last wk overall total up to 28-15 on the yr hope to finish strong. Scary looking card - it looks like there are 6-7 huge "value" plays but last time we saw that we got buried but gonna continue to take our best plays and see what the hell happens.
hope you guys are enjoying the season - setting up to be an epic final month or so before bowl season....We don't think Bama gets enough credit for week in and week out no matter who they play just taking care of business. One of the most underrated 2-3 yr runs in our opinion but don't wanna turn this into a soap opera thread just think they are awesome (no homo).
As we said about a month ago - there is a very deep roster of very talented cappers on here  Sadly - still a lot of misleading BS that makes us want to puke at times but over our decade here - we have noticed that the Covers Nation always smokes it out eventually.
Random thoughts on games for your reading pleasure or pain - and hopefully you can help smoke out some wins for us
 BG 10 Ohio (49)we have the line at 7....Sag at 8.5ish....line makes sense given ohio got blown out in a fix that would make W Kentucky and Hawaii blush.....Super strong under trends for both teams at play but line seems about right would get interested in the 50s....A bit of perceived value in BG but not gonna back Ohio given their D is much worse and they do not take care of the ball - 81 in t/o margin and BG #26...BG #2 in RZ D as well.....c... [More]

Posted Monday, November 04, 2013 05:59 PM

NCAA wk 11

freaks 
Hope everyone is doing well. Back safe from trip to Chicago. Last 4 meals - still trying to digest........Deep dish pizza....old school Italian...Steakhouse....authentic Cajun..........3-0 in the picks last wk...26-15 for the yr. Let's get some analysis going - as usual will try and post thoughts on as many games as possible....goal is to give you info to make your own decisions - a couple of picks to tail if you feel lucky 
MACtion Tuesday  "Where the mafia is in the huddle on every play"
 BG 23.5 Miami Oh (46)Miami gonna start a new qb this wk with Boucher toast...Something named Kummer may get the start - no relation to the pizza boy in Lunch Wagon Women....we have the fair line closer to 17 - Sag at 23ish.....statistically M is bad 122O and 112D...having a lot of trouble scoring...They do take care of the ball and not many penalties...thats all we can say....also 9-4L13 ATS in the series....BG looks pretty good again this yr but the D not the brick wall of last yr...almost beat Miss St - lost by 1 which is a good effort....No glaring weakness but not sure their O is strong enough to just streamroll someone with no resistance....Wildcard is the new QB for Miami - NEVER underestimate what this can do for a team - look at S Flo vs houston - once Temple got the new QB going....obviously wont win but we can see a 17-30 pt game heading to 4Q...give BG at slightly more than 50-50 shot to cover - actually leaning slightly to dog - lo... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:10 AM

NCAA wk 10

Freaks. 

On way back from Chicago. Love this place. 

0-2 key plays last wk.    23-13 YTD. Leans 3-1 last wk. 

As usual will post thoughts on as many games as possible. GL 


Play 1. ULM +3.5

ULM got vet QB Browning back last wk and he was 21-30 4 TD and no picks. 11-53 rushing. They have won 2 str and can still win the conference. They are 9-3L12 away and 6-2L8 ats vs Troy. Their pass eff D ranked 27 matches up well vs Troy. Troy D is brutal. They are 1-6-2L9 conf ats. ULL on deck. Statistically both teams turn it over a ton but with Browning back this will change. ULM better in return game and on 4d D. Team peaking at right time. 

GL. Mega


Posted Monday, October 21, 2013 07:43 PM

NCAA wk 9

freaks 
Let's get the ball rolling. 23-13 ytd after a 2-3 wk last wk....Happy with UCF but made a comical play on the Houston game ......played the under and it was over in the 2Q !  Epic call by MEGALOCKS Inc. First Crack Pipe Special loss of the year as it took a QB RUNNING for 300 yards to frontdoor cover us - it happens - especially when things are not going great. For all the complaining about Covers Nation - no BS in my threads all year - and thanks to everyone for that. There was one comment on the Houston game last wk but that was a good natured comment on not believing what was going on. Keep the discussion going - that's the goal here - try and give people an objective take on as many games as we can get through. 
Off to Chicago on Friday am - hope to get through as much as we can by Thursday afternoon. Let's get some paper. 

 ULL 2.5 Ark St (66)did quite a bit of digging dont see an edge....Sag has fair line at 5ish we have it at 1ish...ULL on a roll and beat WK with the help of point shaving and were outgained....They are on a 21-8 ATS run away but lost last 2 to Ark St...Won 4 str after losses to Ark and Kan St....decent offense, better defense than Ark St...#4 in to margin - good on 3rd D off...have done an ok job vs vegas so far...Ark st has played mizz aub memphis - very balanced offense and lots of speed....D a bit dicey and take a lot of penalties...on a 0-4-1 run ATS and have burned a lot of cash this yr....bi... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 09:49 AM

NCAA wk 8

freaks 
21-10 ytd including last wk 0-2 record - not posted here - but released on Twitter to the chagrin of subscribers everywhere  .....Yes the Tulane under was a tough one to lose when it was 19-9 late and 24 OT later its over - but - when you bet NCAA unders you understand that can happen. 
As per usual - will post the odd pick - but the value of this thread is good discussion and thoughts on the games - particularly off the radar games that we can all use some insight on. 
Best of luck this wk freakshows

 WK 4.5 ULL (62.5)Seems to us a pretty even matchup. We have it at at pick em on a neutral site. So does Sagarin. So the fair line probably 3.5 or so. WK has performed a bit better vs Vegas line - but ULL has only played one game since Sept 21 - 2 bye weeks - by the way not BUY weeks as we read this wk ...Both teams have played comparable schedules according to Sagarin - ULL pedigree shows they can win on the road in conf play - WK has a "blackout" planned tonight and are also well coached...hmmm....?? ULL 20-8 ATS run away but WK 21-7 ATS run overall...?......Most signficant edge we see for ULL is the turnover margin edge - ULL #13 and WK #118...yes they turned the ball over 5 times on 6 plays vs Tennessee in another great MEGALOCKS winner ....but to us - if it walks like a duck - and quacks like a duck - its a duck....Have to believe ULL more likely to win turnover battle.....WK looks to have edge in special teams... [More]

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Joined: December 2003
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Team: Miami Hurricanes
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