MEGALOCKS's Blog

Posted Thursday, January 01, 2015 08:03 PM

Sugar Bowl

Freaks 

Sorry - first game of the entire season since wk 1 no write-up  on the game - running out of time ....But let's be serious - at this point it does not matter....You guys have all made up your mind.

For the record

official play

Bama -7.5

GL ......and once again Happy New Yr to all


Posted Thursday, January 01, 2015 11:22 AM

Cotton Bowl

Freaks 
HAPPY NEW YEAR everybody  Sincere best wishes for a healthy and happy 2015.
0-1 yesterday.  6-4 bowls.
Much like yesterday when a lot of sharp guys had the GT game nailed and we #shitthebedbigtime.....We see a lot of very smart cappers going the opposite way of us again ....Read away....fade away if necessary.....GL to all ! 
Michigan St +3 -127mega line pk emsagarin pk em
1. We think there is some perceived value getting 2.5/3 points.
2. Both teams on paper played similar schedules in terms of difficulty - Mich St ranked 59....Baylor 64......Mich St lost to two teams in the 4 team playoff - Baylor lost one game and that was to a team that showed how good they are yesterday......The one thing we will note is that Mich St had problems vs excellent mobile QBs - and while Petty is good - Mich St should not have to worry too much about excellent mobility and that is a huge factor IMO.
3. Mich St has the better D; and while Baylor will move the ball no doubt about that - what about Mich St vs Baylor D? Mich St has the best offense in recent memory - excellent QB play and very good running game.
4. Baylor very good in turnover margin....but Mich St is ranked #1 do not think Mich St will be giving them anything for free. 6 int for cook all yr.
5. Baylor #124 penalty yds - You do not wanna give Mich St any free yards or takeaway big plays of your own in a game like this.
6. Mich St #1 in time of possession.....S... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 31, 2014 08:35 AM

Dec 31 Bowls

Freaks 
Best wishes for 2015 for all our dedicated subscribers 
Thanks for all the banter and discussion during 2014. It is much appreciated. 
So far good start to the bowls 6-3; ND burned me yesterday what an impressive showing by those guys and we were a bit worried about the unknown QB and coaching prowess of Kelly. A job well done and ND fans should be looking forward to the future with that guy at QB in my early estimation.   We still love ourselves some LSU tho can't wait to see Fournette dominate next yr.

Today ? Will have 2 leans and one #steamlockpounder

First up
Peach Bowl
Looked at this game for a while last night. On the one hand - you have the team that has scored 30+ points in EVERY game this yr - say what you want - that is impressive - AND they have a chip on their shoulder (maybe?) to prove they should have been in the 4 team playoff.....On the other hand - you have the #1 scoring D in the NCAA - not as impressive later in the yr - but they are still a force....And they go against a TCU team that has not faced a D near this caliber yet....AND the Big12 has #shitthebedbigtime so far in bowl games - which may mean squat - but it surely has to make you wonder just a bit. 
So what do we do? Well as you know with our annoying 2 page write-ups - we put down our thoughts and try to come up with something - or at the very least - help the young Sparkies out there make a decision on their picks. For our mon... [More]

Posted Monday, December 29, 2014 10:07 AM

Dec 29 - Dec 31 Bowls

freaks

Had some awesome family time  now ready to continue our bowl game domination with the overuse of CAPITAL LETTERS....FALSE CLAIMS.....LOOSE WOMEN.....GOAT PORN....and INDUSTRY LEADING RESEARCH....

Today's games will be up within a couple hours.

Hope everyone is doing well 

mega


Posted Monday, December 22, 2014 07:52 AM

Dec 22 - Dec 24 Bowls

Freaks Good start to the bowl season on Saturday. Felt good to get things going - We might me in the minority but look forward to all of them even the crapfests  Our fav so far was watching AF get the job done again just love those guys.
up next......
Jerk the Gherkin Acura iPhone Miami Beach Bowl 
Memphis -2
A tough game to get a handle on. BYU has had to deal with a lot of injuries including two huge ones to their stud QB and RB. They did pretty well all things considered finishing 8-4 and the 4 losses all came strung together after QB got hurt and were all against decent team - utah st ucf nevada and boise. Now it may sound crazy - but we put Memphis on par with ucf - better than nevada - and probably a bit worse than utah st or boise but would still give them a game. Just hard to get a read on BYU. They have turned into a pretty good passing team right now with a suspect D. Not the BYU squad you typically see. We completed our analysis and came up with Memphis due to the following.....all factors together point toward a cover - but as always - you just never know
Probably a good time for a reminder for the young Sparkies out there. 1. Tail only if you agree with the analysis. 2. Even if you agree bet 3% of bankroll max on any one play do not bet like a crackhead on tilt. 
1. Motivation. In THEORY only - Memphis should want this one more. Huge turnaround and an unthinkable opportunity to get a 10 win season. If you told BYU before... [More]

Posted Friday, December 19, 2014 05:26 PM

Dec 20 Bowls

Freaks 

Grabbed some time off - always good to try and recharge the batteries

Thanks guys for another great season - not to go  and sentimental - but Covers Nation Really happy with how the season went and enjoyed the banter and analysis with you freaks, whack-jobs and degenerates.


On to the bowls....December 20.....will start this off with the Nevada game and have the rest up by tomorrow am. GL to all 


mega


bowl season




Posted Sunday, November 30, 2014 01:29 PM

NCAA wk 15

Freaks 

Hope everyone enjoyed the games yesterday. Very entertaining. .....1-1 on the picks...last 3 wks 12-5 hope to finish strong.


Let's start with the Sunday EARLY TASTERS

First pick

Florida St -4

(write-up coming)




GL to all this wk....Thanks for all the comments and banter 


mega


Posted Friday, November 28, 2014 10:01 AM

NCAA wk 14

Freaks 

Most important things first - HAPPY THANKSGIVING  Hope that everyone in Covers Nation enjoys some quality time with family and friends - and maybe you can sneak some football in there

First week did not get the weekly thread up early - Sorry guys - Just back from week long trip in Vegas. What a blast.  5-1 last wk. Gonna release a couple plays but doubt there will be anything for today. Need to get all my stats and stuff in order. Will try to do as many write-ups as I can but this will probably be a light week in that regard. Still lots of football left tho - and we will be sharing our wacky and insightful and sometimes misleading analysis on all of those games 


GL all - MEGA




Posted Sunday, November 16, 2014 01:34 PM

NCAA wk 13

Freaks 

We cannot believe the season is coming to a close ....Still lots of big games to come tho - and Bowl season is always a blast. 1-1 on mid-wk games and 6-3 Sat last wk.

Will be posting the EARLY TASTERS this afternoon once the BetOnline odds come out.....Hope to find a couple gems in there but you never know.

GL to all this wk and thanks again for stopping in !!

MEGA 


Posted Sunday, November 09, 2014 02:16 PM

NCAA wk 12

Freaks 
What a crazy wk .....Below .500 for the week and while a 1/2 pt loss in the App St game hurt - we were also lucky to get early lines on a couple - and totally blew the auburn and ohio st games so all in all there is no excuse just a bad job....Congrats to Ohio St backers - man we hated betting against them and have been impressed with them pretty much all yr - just cannot believe how easy they made it look against Sparty - say what you want about the Big10 - that was a very impressive win for ohio st... And the Auburn game was entertaining and had an ending that only an Auburn game could have - T AM gets big time credit for playing so well with the young QB - did not see that one coming....And LSU/Bama we love those SNOT BUBBLERS - could have gone either way - did not think LSU was gonna blow it to be honest after the late FG - but yup - they did. Love those crazy Saturday SEC battles!

Have all our early work done for this wk....Gonna try and grab some EARLY SAMPLERS again this wk - lines should be out very soon....Hold on tight

Congrats to all the guys that nailed it this wk  Tough card and you have to be pleased if you ended up in the "+".

Best of luck to all this wk.....MEGA 


Posted Sunday, November 02, 2014 03:22 PM

NCAA wk 11

Freaks 

3-2 last wk. On to week 11. 

Early Taster 

First play

Penn St -4 






Posted Monday, October 27, 2014 07:48 AM

NCAA wk 10

Freaks  Sickos  Whack-jobs

Time to get going on week 10. Last wk 1-4-1.  2 wk run of 1-7-1. Last year same 2 wks went 2-7.   A couple tough late losses but those were not bad beats just bad picks that happened to lose late I guess.  Congrats to all that dominated. 

Gonna be lots of write-ups again this wk - Research for those who do not have the time. We love doing this so sadly losing will not stop us from showing up. As always - fade or follow the picks - may want to fade until we get back on track ! 

Thanks for all the great comments and discussion win or lose we appreciate it 


mega


Posted Sunday, October 19, 2014 03:53 PM

NCAA wk 9

Freaks  Sickos  Whack-jobs  Dedicated subscribers
Bad picks last wk . Take the praise - have to get in here and take the beatings like a man.  Still very happy with the results this yr but last wk was our 2nd losing weekly effort and worst showing of the season so far. Thanks very much for all the kind words in the wk 8 thread after we were battered and bruised. We would not do this if it were not fun - and you bunch of crazed lunatics make it worth the effort. Let's get going to week 9. Starting it early as the Betonline lines are coming out.  We are not gonna jump in too soon - but just in case something tasty pops up.............

As always - rules of engagement1. Goal of the thread is for us to present the findings of our WORLDWIDE RESEARCH STAFF and let you guys take the information and use it for your own decision making on bets. Sorry it gets cluttered but we love the banter and intel.2. We will note our official picks in "bold". For example - ALERT subscribers will note that the bold picks last wk went a very impressive 0-3 . Strong leans (plays we really want to make and might have small degenerate cash on - but cannot fully recommend and are not official plays) and leans (action for people with serious issues - hopefully still hit 54-55%) will be noted.

Special thanks for those who chimed in last wk with recommended plays and local intel - You will note that this thread has been a gold ... [More]

Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 05:12 PM

NCAA week 8

Freaks  Sickos  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking-Guy  Covers Bloodbath Guy 

Hey everyone  Thanks as always for the comments in our threads .....Last wk 2-1 very happy with the Texas and C Michigan picks....Clemson stud QB got hurt very early - that probably hurt us - but more so if you had the over....Having said that in-game injuries even out over the season and we can tell you we have gotten a break or two for sure so you just cannot be a WHINY CHICK  have to suck it up and give the props to anyone on Louisville  their D held up nicely on the move up in class. 6/7 winning weeks well over 60% on the yr but like we say - you are never immune from getting SPANKED like a red-headed stepchild so play safe guys - lots of football left - don't wager too much on any one game. 
Reminder - MEGALOCKS rules of engagement for this thread - it is not for those who just want a list of picks - you can get those in a bunch of other excellent threads - as always lots of guys on fire this year. 
- we try and go through the games in order (use Covers scores and matchups page) after nailing any early TASTERS  on Sunday....This Sunday we were on family holiday time so did not release any early TASTERS  this wk
- we give you our analysis so you can make your own calls on how or if you want to attack the game.....IF we make a selection we will bold it and call attention to it as such
lo... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 05, 2014 08:39 PM

NCAA wk 7

Freaks  Sickos  Hindsight Guy 
Hey everyone .....What a crazy week of games ! Very entertaining. Looking forward to some more banter with you guys this wk. 4-1 last wk. 5/6 winning wks. On to week 7.
Last wk we started early - dug deep - and found a five alarm BAG OF POO with USC .....Gonna take one early play this wk as well 
SUNDAY MEGALOCKS EARLY TASTER 
First play
Central Michigan +10.5 (Betonline)
We like this one quite a bit.....Remember not playing ML - playing the idea of a closer game than people think.......NIU has won 28 straight home games by our count - 24 straight MAC home games if our stats are correct - however the vast majority of those were with all-timer J Lynch at QB.
The case ...fade away or follow
1) NIU using multiple QB and one seems to be the passer - and one seems to be the runner - in either event - this seems to be working on and off with no real success or continuity.2) NIU been very sloppy this yr compared to year's past - a lot of that has to do with the QBs and the OL needs to gel3) NIU has played 10 straight bad quarters - outscored 29-27 vs UNLV...blown out by Arkansas - expected - then hung on to beat Kent St by 3 points as 26 point favs almost blew it vs a collection of backup Kent QBs in the 4Q.4) Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy should note NIU 8-9 L17 as home fav and that was essentially with Lynch all those games5) Chips star RB Rawls is BACK; So is stud WR Dav... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 28, 2014 07:56 PM

NCAA wk 6

Freaks  Sickos  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy 

Week 6 already ....Crazy. 6-3 last wk. 4/5 winning weeks let's try to keep it going. Lines getting tighter and it is only gonna get more challenging.

GL guys thanks for all the banter 


First pick for MEGALOCKS SUNDAY LOSERS CLUB

USC -10  (B-Online)

(write-up coming)

GL mega


Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 04:20 PM

NCAA wk 5

Freaks  Degenerates  Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy 
Hello again everyone.  Back from a fun road trip to Michigan - Escaped just before the hurricane / tornado / raining frogs combo at the end of the 3Q. Definitely disappointed in how Michigan played as someone who likes to see them win - but at least we cashed on Utah. .....Too bad overall it was the first losing wk of the season - almost got to .500....went to bed looked like Cal/Arizona was a stone cold under 454523985728394572304572 unit lock and then 50+ points happened in the 4Q .....Funny stuff - it happens. The only defense we have discovered to defeat the odd crazy happening betting NCAA football is playing a small % of the overall bankroll on any one game. It always sucks to lose - but college football puts the W in WACKY. MEGALOCKS under in a PAC 12 game involving Arizona .......Congrats to all that had the over on that game you probably thought you were toast - and got the money - good job. On to week 5.
First play
Fresno -5.5
When MEGALOCKS release a favorite - you either play along and pray - or fade our pathetic azzes and go huge on New Mex....We like the fact that Fresno has played a brutal schedule and are no doubt much better than that 1-3 record - at USC....at Utah...H to Nebraska - does not get much tougher than that for 3 games to start the season.....sched ranked #13....New Mex ranked #126....and even with the much tougher schedule - yes Fresn... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2014 03:32 PM

NCAA wk 4

Freaks   Degenerates   Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy  

Already week 4    It goes too fast. Gotta enjoy it. 

5-2-1 last wk. 3/3 winning weeks. But it was about this time last yr when we couldn't hit the ground falling out of a plane. 

As always will share thoughts on as many games as possible. Will not get to any detailed writeups until tomorrow. May try and grab a couple early lines today and share thoughts with the wackos like us checking out the Sunday openers. 

GL guys !!! Mega. 


Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 05:16 PM

NCAA wk 3

Freaks  Hindsight Guy   Sickos

Week 3 already. Wow. 5-3 last wk. Hope to find some good ones for this weekend. Best of luck to all. Writeups to follow as usual. 

First play


Indiana +3. (betonline)


gL.  Mega. 


Posted Tuesday, September 02, 2014 02:27 PM

NCAA wk 2

Freaks  Whack-jobs  "They are Gonna Kill Em" Guy  "Crowd Will be Rocking" Guy   "Public Gonna Get Killed" Guy 
Was great to get the season started 
4-3 last wk. Disappointed to leave off Ga Southern and La Tech from the card.....Glad left off Marshaa Marshaa Marshaa and LSU under so I guess it worked out. Wk 2 and Wk 3 are usually the toughest for us because you tend to think you know more than you really do - So hard to not overreact 
As per usual - will jot down thoughts on as many games as possible - Take the info for what it is and make your own calls. 
Had to mention ....vs BYU....The UConn refs did what they could (15 penalties for BYU/150 yards - several more were declined......Pass bounces 14 times - ruled a UConn catch....etc....) but BYU still prevailed and covered....More importantly - the UNDER prevailed  even with BYU running hurry up offense up 18 pts with 4 min left . Those UConn home games always take a yr off your life but they are the best. 

On to this wk.....
Arizona 7 UTSA (54)This is a tough one for us....early in the yr - we have some big variances between our "fair point spread" and the vegas line - mostly b/c it is so tough to really know how good teams are this early in the season....We have this line closer to 3 points so normally would be an automatic bet....but.........Az put up almost 800Y offense vs stinky UNLV and their freshman qb looked great.... [More]

Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 10:57 AM

NCAA wk 1

Freaks.  Sickos   Losers 

We are back for another season of NCAA football. Great to see so many brilliant-yet-prickly old-time greats in here as well as some fresh meat. Let's make some paper ...have some laughs......share some knowledge.......and not kill each other in the process.

Covers Nation  (no-)

As per usual - we will post our thoughts on as many games as possible. You will always see the thought process so that you can agree and play along - or fade our pathetic azz away . Always room for opposing viewpoints as long as we all stay civil. 

We keep it simple. We don't make up lines. We don't make up 7 figure bet amounts . We understand we will lose some bets.... but hopefully we end up having another great year.

Posting a bit later this year as last offseason was just too much - 4 months of arguing the Alabama/VT game. Fights ensued. Blood was spilled. Teeth were kicked in. And nobody was the better for it.

On to week 1. It's go time.  MEGA


Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2014 12:50 PM

Bridgejumper at PARX

Race 1 today.

Imagine you had $40,000 on the #5 to show. In fact $42,498/$46,077 of the show pool was bet on the #5. 92% to show. It's a LOCCCCKKKKK right ?  All he has to do is finish top 3 at odds of 1/2 and you collect 10 cents profit on every $2. Risking $40,000 to win $2,000 on PARX donkeys.

Well he wins. Whew. Too easy.

But wait.

Inquiry. 

He is DQ'd for interference coming out of the gate. 

Ooops. There goes $40K. 

Payouts. 3/1 winner. 7/2 2nd horse. 17-1 3rd horse.

8.20 3.80 16.60 
        3.60 22.20 
               61.80 

This happens quite often. Always find it amusing that anyone would be dumb enough to put huge cash on a big fav to show. You miss once - You are jumping off a bridge - either voluntarily - or with the "assistance" of Bullet Tooth Tony and Frankie Four Fingers who know you can't pay back the $40,000 you borrowed for a LOCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK.




Posted Friday, April 11, 2014 08:55 PM

Triple Dead Heat

Funny!!

First triple dead heat in Evangeline history.

Had a piece of it. 8-1 shot to win ends up paying $6.60. 

Mega



Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 12:40 PM

Keeneland April 10

Freaks  Whackjobs  Losers who watch poker on TV

When we last joined you - it was an embarrassment of riches but in the couple of days that we didn't post after that it was  So who knows about today ? Probably  but we will go down fighting. As a sidenote - after playing the ponies for over a quarter of a century we had something happen yesterday that was new - having a tri with a horse keyed for 3rd and cashing when he came 4th. Finished 1-1A-9-8 but because 1 and 1A finished first and second as an entry - the payout was 1-9-8. We are not idiots but if we had a paper ticket may have thrown it out. Message to all the young Sparkies out there - Never throw out a tickee tickee....and sometimes it is WAY better to be lucky than good.  Will hope to find some winners today in between driving the 4 Ferraris around today.

GL to all today  MEGA



Posted Saturday, March 29, 2014 12:14 PM

Florida Derby

Freaks, lurkers, psychos 
Let's take a look at the race. Mikey has already posted a great analysis so some of this will be repetitive. A psycho has been banned. Someone who posted an "I told you so" remark even after agreeing with them in the Sunland Derby is in the tank. So we have potential for some grown-up discussion today. 
#1 Wildcat RedIf anyone has a chance - watch that FOY replay - it is our fav race of the yr ! A head to head slug it out duel that had both Wildcat Red and General A Rod leading at multiple times in the race with WR finally digging in and getting the victory....Not usually a good idea to take a horse in a big race after improving 3 straight times....coming off a taxing effort....and likely to face more heat today....Not sure he is gonna like the distance either....Skeptical but have to list as a contender....Lots of guts
#2 Matador.....Might catch a piece of the bottom of tri/super....6 starts and only one win and a 3rd so far in the boxscore - did not hit the top 3 in either dirt race....Was stupid far back in TB Derby and had no chance to catch winner who aired wire to wire....Skeptical but not impossible to hit 3rd or 4th...Prefer others tho
#3 Cairo Prince....Saez was basically driving a car in the Holy Bull....Tracked outside did not see rail - Drew up beside leaders then exploded home - Working like a champ...Theoretically could get the perfect setup in this one just off the pace....Most likely winner and a likely fav - may... [More]

Posts:  1 2  

Profile

User: MEGALOCKS
Joined: December 2003
Location: Ontario
Team: Miami Hurricanes
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories

!--*** Footer scoreboard ************ -->