MLBguru's Blog

Posted Wednesday, May 06, 2009 10:09 AM

Guru's Humpday Picks

Well, I didn't get to do my homework yesterday because how busy my schedule was, and I paid dearly for it with my first losing day of the month, going 2-5-1 -3.5 units   But today is a new day, and I had plenty of time last night and today to make some solid choices and do my homework.   3* Red Sox -1.5 +105 risking 3 to win 3.15:   Got this one last night, happy since the odd is -110 now I believe.   Not really a mystery play.  Cleveland is only batting a mere .259 against righties and .253 in night games, whereas Boston is striping the ball and batting over .290 at home and against righties.   Bullpens will also factor in....Cleveland has an ugly BP road era of 6.35, while Boston's BP at home is lights out averaging an era of 1.80   This is also a large fade of Pavano....his ERA on the road is 7.08 and is a lifetime 1-3 against the Sox with an even higher 8.18 ERA and whip of almost 2 at 1.955   Throw in the fact that Boston is 16-7 against the Tribe at home over the last 3 seasons and we have all the makings of a rout tonight.   2* Rockies/Giants under 9.5 risking 2.2 to win 2:   Think this total is slightly to high...figured it would be 9 or 8.5.   SF is only batting .228 against righties an averaging only 3.1 runs against them. Colorado also has struggles against Lefties, only averaging around .238 off them.   The Big Unit is hot right now, both the capper and the pitcher.  He i... [More]

Posted Monday, May 04, 2009 09:52 AM

Guru's Monday Plays

3-2-2 yesterday +2.0 units   Was primed for a monster day.  2 losses came on the TB/Bos over where there were so many men LOB, and Twinkies ML leading 4-0 and Baker having a no-hitter going into the 7th. Cashed my parlay and went 1-0-1 on 3*'s so I'm happy I'm on the plus side but disappointed it wasn't alot more.   On to today.....probably the worst card for me all season but I will make do.  Start off with a few plays and be back with more later.   3* Orioles/Rays over 9.5 -105 risking 3.15 to win 3:   The over is 61-33 over last 3 season when Balt is facing a lefty.  Both teams are hitting above .280 against their respective handed starter tonight. Bullpens factor into this play as well.  Baltimore BP era is a lovely 7.75 on the road, and TB's is not much better at home with a 5.91 era. Eaton's career era against the Rays is 5.40 with a 1.800 whip, and Kazmir counters with a 4.36 era and a whip of 1.576   Throw in the fact that 13 of the last 17 in TB between these two teams has gone over the total.   2* Marlins/Reds over 8 +100 risking 2 to win 2:   Marlins are 26-10 o/u in the last 3 seasons as a home favourite of -125 to -150.  They are also 22-9 L3 seasons on the over, when there is a total of 8-8.5.   Reds are hitting slightly better on the road, and batting much better against righties.   13 of the last 15 in Florida between these two has gone over the total, including th... [More]

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User: MLBguru
Joined: April 2008
Location: Ontario
Team: Miami Dolphins
Occupation: Other

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