3-2-2 yesterday +2.0 units
Was primed for a monster day. 2 losses came on the TB/Bos over where there were so many men LOB, and Twinkies ML leading 4-0 and Baker having a no-hitter going into the 7th.
Cashed my parlay and went 1-0-1 on 3*'s so I'm happy I'm on the plus side but disappointed it wasn't alot more.
On to today.....probably the worst card for me all season but I will make do. Start off with a few plays and be back with more later.
3* Orioles/Rays over 9.5 -105 risking 3.15 to win 3:
The over is 61-33 over last 3 season when Balt is facing a lefty. Both teams are hitting above .280 against their respective handed starter tonight.
Bullpens factor into this play as well. Baltimore BP era is a lovely 7.75 on the road, and TB's is not much better at home with a 5.91 era.
Eaton's career era against the Rays is 5.40 with a 1.800 whip, and Kazmir counters with a 4.36 era and a whip of 1.576
Throw in the fact that 13 of the last 17 in TB between these two teams has gone over the total.
2* Marlins/Reds over 8 +100 risking 2 to win 2:
Marlins are 26-10 o/u in the last 3 seasons as a home favourite of -125 to -150. They are also 22-9 L3 seasons on the over, when there is a total of 8-8.5.
Reds are hitting slightly better on the road, and batting much better against righties.
13 of the last 15 in Florida between these two has gone over the total, including the last 8 straight.
Cincy's BP has been pitching OK at best, but Florida has been god awful at home with a staggering 9.11 era. Ouch.
Throw in Harang's career 6.70 era and 1.752 whip against the fish and I will gladly take 8 runs and higher.
Be back with more in a bit....need to do extra research today.